Pages Menu
TwitterFacebooklogin
Categories Menu

Posted by on Nov 21, 2020 in Blog, Essays | 0 comments

2020 NFL Picks: Week #11

 

 

This has been a season like no other.

I’ve been posting my picks on public forums dating back to the days of Sports Fan Radio in 1995.  Each season is different in the sense that rarely do things go according to expectation.  Hence, I find myself constantly making adjustments.  I’m rarely doing the same things in November and December that I did in September and October.

2020 is no different.  In fact, it’s perhaps the most unusual season I’ve encountered.  The reasons for this are obvious.

What’s not so clear is knowing what exactly to apply when handicapping.  Are angles and trends really applicable in a season with no apparent home-field advantage?  Are unders really playable when the average NFL team typically passes 50 times a game?

The biggest adjustment I’ve made this year is abandoning side wagers for the most part in favor of quarters and halves betting, which are faring well.

That will continue this week, as I have a slightly better than break-even mark overall (8 picks over the .500 mark), but remain in the red due to vig and making lots of plays (down -$399 for the season).

 

************************************************

2020 NFL WAGERING RECORD

Wins — Losses — Pushes     63 — 55 — 2

Starting Bankroll:     $10,000.

Current Bankroll:     $9,601.

Best Bets:     4 — 5 — 0 (- $825.)

Last Week’s Results:     + $1,730.

*************************************************

Three “best bets” this week, and 20 wagers, total.

 

THIS WEEK’S WAGERS:  (20 plays)

 

Cincinnati Bengals +½ (-110) – 1st H
$220.00 to win $200.00

BEST BET:  Philadelphia Eagles/Cleveland Browns o9½ (-115) – 1st Q
$230.00 to win $200.00

Philadelphia Eagles Team Total o½ (-180) – 1st Q
$360.00 to win $200.00

Atlanta Falcons Team Total o½ (-170) – 1st Q
$340.00 to win $200.00

Jacksonville Jaguars Team Total o½ (-120) – 1st Q
$240.00 to win $200.00

Pittsburgh Steelers/Jacksonville Jaguars o9½ (-115) – 1st Q
$230.00 to win $200.00

Tennessee Titans Team Total o½ (-140) – 1st Q
$280.00 to win $200.00

Cincinnati Bengals/Washington Redskins o9½ (-105) – 1st Q
$210.00 to win $200.00

Tennessee Titans/Baltimore Ravens o9½ (-130) – 1st Q
$260.00 to win $200.00

New England Patriots/Houston Texans o9½ (-120) – 1st Q
$240.00 to win $200.00

BEST BET:  Philadelphia Eagles Team Total o9½ (-160) – 1st H
$320.00 to win $200.00

Tennessee Titans Team Total o9½ (-150) – 1st H
$300.00 to win $200.00

BEST BET:  Dallas Cowboys +4 (-115) – 1st H
$230.00 to win $200.00

Dallas Cowboys Team Total o½ (-135) – 1st Q
$270.00 to win $200.00

Dallas Cowboys/Minnesota Vikings o9½ (-120) – 1st Q
$240.00 to win $200.00

Dallas Cowboys Team Total o7½ (-130) – 1st H
$260.00 to win $200.00

Los Angeles Rams +3 (-105) – 1st H
$210.00 to win $200.00

Los Angeles Rams Team Total o½ (-150) – 1st Q
$300.00 to win $200.00

Los Angeles Rams/Tampa Bay Buccaneers o9½ (-120) – 1st Q
$240.00 to win $200.00

Los Angeles Rams Team Total o9½ (-135) – 1st H
$270.00 to win $200.00

 

__________

Read More

Posted by on Nov 14, 2020 in Blog, Essays | 0 comments

2020 NFL Picks: Week #10

 

 

I took last week off, which was a rare thing for me.  The 2020 presidential election and aftermath was just too much of an overload to process, and adding NFL handicapping, I didn’t feel confident enough to post any picks.

However, that didn’t stop me from making 36 wagers over the course of Sunday and Monday.  These were all last-minute wagers and half-time wagers, with no work involved, other than line shopping and betting based on gut instinct.

Well, wouldn’t you know it.  I enjoyed my best (non-recorded) results in five years, going 27-9 against the spread.  What’s astonishing is these were all $100 “shits and giggles” wagers.  It ended up being about a $1,500 weekend.

For the purposes of recording, I posted only six of these — the Sunday night game and the Monday night game.  I will only record what’s posted in advance, so that means I added MNF’s 3-0 result to the season tally.  The big weekend was great financially but won’t win over any followers.

This week, I’m doing the EXACT SAME THING.  Hey, why mess with success?  I’ll make as many wagers as I can, all in the amount of $100 and will fire indiscriminately where I see line value or arbitrage (some cross bets with different lines and sites).  The plays will be posted at Facebook.  The reason I can’t post them in advance is — many of these plays are first-quarter bets, and the numbers on those don’t come out until a few hours before kickoff (NOTE:  UPDATED — WAGERS ARE NOW POSTED BELOW).

However, I did make one advance play, based on weather reports.  See below.

NOTE PLAYS ADDED BELOW………

 

************************************************

2020 NFL WAGERING RECORD

Wins — Losses — Pushes     50 — 49 — 2

Starting Bankroll:     $10,000.

Current Bankroll:     $7,871.

Best Bets:     3 — 5 — 0 (- $1,325.)

Last Week’s Results:     + $300.

*************************************************

 

THIS WEEK’S WAGERS:  (16 +3 plays = 19 total)

Houston at Cleveland UNDER 45.5 — Risking $550 to win $500 (BEST BET)

Mild weather for Cleveland tomorrow, with temperatures close to 60 degrees at game time.  But wind should be a huge factor and mixed with rain are expected to make things difficult for passing games (and kickers).  Forecast calls for strong wind gusts.  Total on this game plunged 5 points, but I don’t think that’s enough of an adjustment.  So, I’m making this the Best Bet of the week.

 

Houston Texans/Cleveland Browns u45½ (-110)
$330.00
$300.00
Houston Texans/Cleveland Browns u45½ (-110)
$220.00
$200.00
Washington Redskins Team Total o½ (-140) – 1st Q
$280.00
$200.00
Jacksonville Jaguars Team Total o½ (-120) – 1st Q
$240.00
$200.00
Philadelphia Eagles/New York Giants o7½ (-105) – 1st Q
$210.00
$200.00
New York Giants Team Total o½ (-140) – 1st Q
$280.00
$200.00
Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Carolina Panthers o9½ (-130) – 1st Q
$260.00
$200.00
Carolina Panthers Team Total o½ (-160) – 1st Q
$320.00
$200.00
Washington Redskins/Detroit Lions o9½ (-105) – 1st Q
$210.00
$200.00
Los Angeles Chargers/Miami Dolphins o9½ (-130) – 1st Q
$260.00
$200.00
Buffalo Bills Team Total o3½ (-120) – 1st Q
$240.00
$200.00
Arizona Cardinals Team Total o6½ (-130) – 1st Q
$260.00
$200.00
Cincinnati Bengals Team Total o½ (-125) – 1st Q
$250.00
$200.00
San Francisco 49ers Team Total o½ (-120) – 1st Q
$240.00
$200.00
New Orleans Saints Team Total o6½ (-155) – 1st Q
$310.00
$200.00
Seattle Seahawks Team Total o3½ (-120) – 1st Q
$240.00
$200.00
Los Angeles Rams Team Total o6½ (-130) – 1st Q
$260.00
$200.00
SUNDAY NIGHT SHITS AND GIGGLES SPECIALS
 
Adding these three little honeys to cap off a fabulous NFL betting day, going 13-3. Each play is a $100 fun bet, and will be included in the NFL betting results, which I do each week at my site. This is my best two-week run in ten years the last two weeks, going 39-12.
 
Shit and giggles sandwiches, anyone? Enjoy the festa!
 
(I don’t count the 2H bets, so ignore those).

__________

Read More

Posted by on Nov 11, 2020 in Blog, Essays, Personal, What's Left | 1 comment

My Veterans Day Story

 

 

VETERANS DAY STORY

First, allow me to salute the fine men and women who have risked their lives for this nation on a special day intended to remember all those who served, and especially those who sacrificed.

I have two short military-related stories to share, which aren’t anything on the scale of real veterans who served in the armed forces. But the stories, I think, are poignant. At least for me, they still hold meaning all these years later.  I feel the need to write them down and remember.

I.

In high school, I joined a military youth organization called the Civil Air Patrol, which is an active organization within the federal government that closely aligns with the Air Force.

We met and trained weekly at the Dallas Naval Air station, which was a Navy base on the edge of Mountain View Lake, attached to the huge Vought aircraft plant. Vought Industries made Corsairs (I think), which were used in Vietnam. The Vought factory had opened during WW2 and was a huge defense plant. [See the photo below of an actual KENNEDY MOTORCADE in front of the plant, that is now entirely forgotten by history.]

It closed down in the 1980s, but when I was there, it had Navy and Air Force personnel, including my unit of the Civil Air Patrol. I made it all the way to Corporal (about as low as it gets in rank).

I was seriously thinking about a career in the military. We did everything soldiers do so far as training goes. I even got a radio-telephone operator’s license (that was my “specialty”). We marched, saluted, had inspections, and I got a real taste of military life.

One weekend, we got an assignment I will NEVER forget. One weekend per month, we stayed overnight on the military base and did the usual training associated with night security. We had a barracks, just like you see in the movies. Part of the building had not been cleaned in at least 5-10 years.

This was in 1977, and the Vietnam War had ended just a few years earlier (the last American troops left in 1973). There were lots of Vietnam-era hardware around, and that was the basis of our training materials.

As a grunt, that Saturday, I was told to go up to a room in the barracks, one of many, and with my colleagues help to sort through piles, and I mean PILES, of old Air Force uniforms, mostly fatigues, but even a few flight suits. All the fatigues had blue name tags stitched into the green fabric. We were instructed to take knives and REMOVE all the names from the old uniforms. There were hundreds. They were to be sold as scrap to Army-Navy stores as military surplus, which was a thing back then. So, I stick a sharp knife into the cloth and cut the thin threads, and peeled off the last name of a soldier who had served, many in Vietnam.

After you see another Smith, Wallace, Gonzalez, Wilson, Kramer on a uniform, it becomes routine. We were all just dumb 14 and 15-year-old kids, and we began making jokes about some of the last names, especially if they sounded weird. “Hey, look at this one!”

I still remember his name to this day, and it’s been 43 years. His name was Col. Sandbach. He was an Air Force Colonel, retired I think. But he served as our CAP commander. Col. Sandbach was making inspections and heard us laughing. He heard us making a game out of the work we were doing, ripping name tags off of Air Force uniforms.

The colonel walked in and we snapped to attention. Ten-hut!

He asked what we were laughing about, and we told him. Then, Col. Sandbach listened, and then quietly spoke:

“You boys know some of those fatigues you are holding in your hands are from men who didn’t come back, don’t you?”

“Show them some respect.”

With that, he turned and walked out of the room.

I will never, never, never forget the shame of that moment.

 

II.

In 1986, I was out of college and not sure what to do with my life. I actually enlisted in Marine Corps Officer Candidate School, but when they tested me and found out I was colorblind, they removed me from the flight school and told me I had to go to ground school, which was all fine with me.

I took the PFT, passed all the exams, and then was slated to go to basic training, in San Diego, I think. But then, the USMC ground school, which only had two classes for officers per year, was canceled, and I was told I’d have to wait at least 6 mos, and probably a year to get in. So, I went on with my life and moved to other things.

It’s a curious thing to think about forks in the road and forecast where you might have been and the person you might be had you taken a different path. Sometimes, things are just beyond our control.

Who knows? Perhaps I and many others who took different forks on the path of life might have worn uniforms that years later were inventoried by kids in a barracks, laughing and unaware of the sacrifices of the men (and women) who had once worn the cloth

 

My thoughts on this Veterans Day 2020 with a salute to those who actually served and sacrificed, in some cases, everything.

__________

Read More

Posted by on Nov 8, 2020 in Blog, Essays | 0 comments

An Intelligent Conversation: Episode 8 — “The 2020 Election is Over: What Next?””

 

Matt Lessinger and Nolan Dalla host the latest edition of “An Intelligent Conversation,” with three terrific guests.

We all watched President-Elect Joe Biden and VP-Elect Kamala’s Harris’ victory speeches and held this roundtable discussion. Guests included Linda Kenney Baden, the famed New York criminal defense attorney. Also, Vin Narayanan, the former USA Today political writer and editor was on the panel. The conversation was spiced up by stand-up comedian and commentator, Joe Stapleton.

This unscripted conversation was recorded on Saturday, Nov. 8, 2020 and runs about 2.5 hours.

 

__________

Read More

Posted by on Nov 7, 2020 in Blog, Essays | 0 comments

2020 NFL Picks: Week #9

 

 

Personal Note:  For those of you who follow my writings and come here to read my analysis and picks, first let me thank you.  I am grateful that you take the time, out of so many options, to spend a few minutes at my website to read what I have to say.

I do take my writings, and my football picks seriously.  For the past eight seasons, I have posted more than 1,000 plays, and have won 6 of 8 seasons, with a small overall win.  I take pride in this work, and for me, this is an accomplishment.  However, sometimes, results aren’t what we hope or predict.

This last week, hell — these last four years, have been an incredible drain of energy.  I am certain my handicapping, and certainly, my focus has diminished.  I hope to get this back.  However, that may take time.

Accordingly, I plan to continue my handicapping and write-ups and learn from mistakes and make adjustments.  It’s just that there won’t be anything this weekend.  I would be irresponsible to toss up a few plays and have someone bet on them, when I have not at least made an attempt at doing the basic research.  Hence, let’s return next week for a fresh re-start and new energy for the rest of the season.  I’m happy about the election results and now look forward to new optimism on so much more, including sports.

Thank you.

 

************************************************

2020 NFL WAGERING RECORD

Wins — Losses — Pushes     47 — 49 — 2

Starting Bankroll:     $10,000.

Current Bankroll:     $7,571.

Best Bets:     3 — 5 — 0 (- $1,325.)

Last Week’s Results:     – $435.

*************************************************

 

NOTE:  No plays this week.

 

THIS WEEK’S WAGERS (0 BETS):

 

__________

Read More
css.php