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Guess Who Has the Most at Stake in the 2026 Election?

Posted by on Nov 2, 2026 in Blog | 0 comments

 

 

WHO’S GOT THE MOST AT STAKE IN THIS ELECTION ?
ANSWER — POLLSTERS AND “EXPERTS”

This election is about more than just who wins, which party controls what, and the future of democracy. In fact, *nobody* has more at stake this go-around than political prognosticators.

They desperately need a win. They need to nail their predictions, this time. No more teasing. Stop with the hyperbole. Just get something right.

Political prognosticators ——- yeah, I’m talking about pollsters, research firms, party hacks, consultants, media personalities, prediction markets, and so-called “experts.”

Everyone who shares an opinion is under the microscope, especially if they’re getting paid and/or they have a public voice. You are getting PAID to voice an “expert” opinion? With that paycheck comes responsibility. You are on TV? With that exposure comes responsibility. You are raking millions in consulting fees? With that expertise comes responsibility. We expect accuracy, to the degree forecasts can be refined and perfected.

The list of fools and foolishness is long and deep. I could easily list and then bash most of the political talking heads for being dead wrong in recent elections. They weren’t wrong by an inch. They were off by a mile — or I should say *millions* of votes. Which now begs the question — why are they still on TV? Why are we still listening to them?

In the last elections, when Democratic Party establishment fossil James Carville repeatedly squawked in a jaw-dropping display of arrogance and overconfidence multiple times that he was — absolutely “certain” and “sure” and “expecting a blowout win” for Harris over Trump in the 2024 presidential election, that should have ENDED erased him from the media map. His credibility as an election “expert” and political sock muppet was buried long before, but that malady was a travesty. But hey look, he’s still out there gawking (and presumably getting paid by someone — go figure). Can you tell I dislike and disrespect James Carville?

As for pollsters and research firms, we’ve all seen the recent numbers and projections for 2026. Blue wave! Blue Tsunami! Are you sure? Someone may end up blue in the face. Not that Democrats won’t win many races and perhaps take control of the legislative branch. That does seem likely to anyone paying attention. Even Republicans acknowledge it will be a bad mid-term election for them. It’s just a question of — how bad

It will be interesting to see how the final vote tabulations compare with the latest polls and projections. I will say this: Whoever blows it this time should be out of the political prediction business completely. Finished. Done. Survey research firms and pollsters have had plenty of time and resources to recalibrate their methodologies that take into account how likely voters are polled. Using the famous pressure point…..YOU’VE GOT ONE JOB! DO IT, AND GET IT RIGHT.

Most Americans don’t trust polls or pollsters anymore. Blowing an occasional election is forgivable. But there have been way too many “Dewey Defeats Truman” 1948s lately. This is part of a much bigger problem where we’ve lost faith and trust in our institutions, and even dismiss the experts. Not just in politics, but all arenas. Science. Medicine. Economics. Sports. You name it. This is not healthy. In fact, cynicism is toxic. The “experts” desperately need a *W* on Tuesday.

I should note prediction markets will be tested, as well. The flow of money represents a concentration of global confidence. That because we can bet on these things from anywhere, and presumably people won’t put money down on something without some knowledge. When prediction markets move, the “wisdom of crowds” is voicing its opinion. Most people betting on politics in prediction markets are not laymen off the street. We assume they know more than general public opinion. But being smarter doesn’t make them infallible.

Indeed, everyone’s credibility is at stake here. Pollsters. Talking heads. Political analysts. Research firms. Survey companies. Software programs. Betting markets. Everybody.

Sure, this election is about our future. But it’s just as much a test of the credibility of those who measure public opinion and try to predict the future.

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My Voting Experience (2026)

Posted by on Nov 1, 2026 in Blog | 4 comments

 

 

Note: This was written on Friday, the day after I voted in-person here in Nevada. On Saturday, my home was visited by two DHS agents. I posted about that incident in a video testimony of what happened. What follows here will deal exclusively with voting and my experience on the previous day.

My state, Nevada does an excellent job with in-person voting (I have never voted by mail). It’s accessible, quick, and easy. I also feel more confident in the process now having done it. Yesterday, we voted at the West Sahara Community Center. From the moment we drove into the parking lot until leaving, the entire process took 20 minutes.

We’ve voted in every election since 2004, and in most primaries. Nevada provides a wide window of calendar dates to vote — nearly three weeks long. All states should adopt a similar window of opportunity. In fact, broader extensions should be universal. Making voting difficult for registered voters is unconstitutional, yet it’s been an ugly practice since our nation was founded (intended to discriminate and disenfranchise–mostly minorities and poor). Keeping polls open for more than one day costs more, but if increased voter participation is the objective, then multiple days are mandatory.

Now, a few specific thoughts about this poll location and my experience:

1. Question: Do the hundreds of signs littering every access point around the voting station *really* change anyone’s opinion? I suppose these political signs are as much DEFENSIVE in nature as anything positive. If several candidates were NOT put up signs, that means fewer signs would then draw more attention. And, the worst thing for any candidate is to have ZERO name ID, while the opponent is a familiar name. If innumerable signs clutter up the space, no one looks or notices them. Just an off observation here about how absurd campaigning works and distorts reality.

2. Hustlers: I used to hate walking the gauntlet through the fleas who try to stick a pamphlet in your hand while walking from the car to the polling place. They used to nearly attack you, and it was usually some candidate’s rep you’ve never heard of (I guess that’s the idea). My local polling place did a really good job this year–first time I’ve seen this. They put up yellow police-line tape so voters can walk up the sidewalk without being badgered by hustlers. However, they do stand there on the opposite side of the police tape, and can be approached IF YOU want to engage them. Well done, Nevada (I assume this is a statewide rule which is enforced).

3. More about the Hustlers: I have mixed feeling about them. On one hand, I admire anyone’s volunteerism. It’s not easy standing around for hours trying to engage with strangers. People, sheesh! I get it. On the other hand, I dislike the intimidation factor. I’m pretty direct and have a teflon personality, but others who make that walk may not feel as comfortable when getting pitched and hustled by some dude pimping the Family Court candidate in District 21. Admittedly, I’ve gotten into arguments with some hustlers in the past who pimp Republicans (shocker–profanity has been hurled). The police line tape protects THEM as much as ME.

4. Check-In: Plenty of poll workers. Quick and easy. They ask your name, but most people show ID. This is a controversial issue right now (mandating voter ID). Most people just willingly volunteer their drivers license, and that makes verification much easier. I’m not sure what they do if or when someone shows up without identification, but that’s not a problem here (and it’s ridiculously overblown nationally, intended to stir up mistrust in the voting process). I was asked if I *also* received a mail-in ballot, and I answered YES. I was told NOT to mail that in (which would mean voting twice) and doing so would be a felony. I noticed everyone is told this, and it’s shown in writing when you sign the screen. Presumably, sophisticated system controls are in place to flag multi-voters. In the few cases they happen, it’s probably about equal and a cancel-out effect takes place (but that’s speculation).

5. The Voting Booth: Here’s where a surprise happened. If you’re older, you may remember clunky old grey metal machines with a curtain that closed behind you and levers. It was the size of a golf cart with wheels. Those voting machines were used for years. I never trusted those relics, because it seemed every state had malfunctions, accusations, and controversies. This time, our “voting booth” looked more like a grocery self-check out. That’s really as close a description as I can think of. You stand there in front of an oversized computer screen with large letters (thank you!). And it’s touch screen voting. What was interesting — you can talk to the person next to you (Marieta was voting right beside me). If you crane your neck, you can also see the other person’s screen. This does raise questions about “privacy,” but upon closer inspection when you deviate just a little from looking STRAIGHT into the screen, the image becomes fuzzy. So, this privacy protection is effective. However, some voters accustomed to curtains and some obvious signs of secrecy may question this “grocery check out” process.

6. The Print-Out: After entering the choices onscreen, next we print up our own completed ballot. There’s a printer right there! Then, you take a double-page ballot that’s the size of a sportsbook sheet and take it to another station. There, it’s scanned, then held. So, it appears there are THREE records of your vote: 1. computer 2. scanned copy 3. hard-copy paper ballot. This makes me trust the process much more, as a properly supervised vote audit would reveal the proper tabulation of votes. I’m not saying manipulation isn’t possible — but here in Nevada it would take some other means to rig three distinct voting records.

7. The Walk After: It’s funny to walk the gauntlet and return to your car. All the hustlers pay you NO attention whatsoever. It’s like you become INVISIBLE after voting. The deeper political symbolism of this is not lost on me. On this day, I did stop and talk to a Democratic Party volunteer. She was handing out a tout sheet with “recommendations” on all the races. Note there was a Republican Party volunteer doing this, as well, but I did not engage that person. I told her the tip sheet was very helpful and what she was doing was important because most voters (including me) didn’t know which were the most progressive candidates, especially in non-partisan races. The write-up and post that I shared from Nick C. was also useful, as I had my phone open and voted for those candidates, mostly judges. Another observation: A local DJ was spinning records in one tent. At another, a classical guitarist was playing, though it was hard to hear with the clash of music. I didn’t see who the DJ and guitarist were with — I wonder if music sways any votes? (dubious dirty-tricks idea–set up a station and then play the most OBNOXIOUS music and then have the banner of the opposing candidate–“screw that person, I’m not voting for them!”)

In summation, this was a pleasant, educational, and satisfying experience. However, I don’t know if this us typical — nationally. Perhaps other states have much more antiquidated systems. Feel free to comment. I’ll post more in the next few days. Thanks for reading.
— ND

(This is a stock photo above–from UNR’s website. I’m not sure of photography is allowed at polling places, so I didn’t take any pictures.)

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Three Days Before the 2026 Election, Department of Homeland Security Knocked on My Door

Posted by on Nov 1, 2026 in Blog | 0 comments

 

The United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) knocked on my front door on this Saturday morning, and tried to intimidate and question my family. Here’s the story of what happened….

 

 

On Saturday morning, three days before the election, two DHS agents visited my home. I discussed this in another thread, with a video describing what happened.
Since I’ve been accused of *lying* about this or fabricating or making up the entire incident, I will provide proof here and now of the encounter.
I offered those who questioned my honesty a prospective bet of $10,000. Put your money where your mouth is. So far, no takers. Just talkers.
This is the short video showing when they knocked on my front door taken with the Ring camera. You can also hear the audio, which captures the first part of our conversation.
I’m closing the comments on this thread as the discussion is taking place in the other Facebook post I put up yesterday. This is provided just for evidence purposes.

 

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Breaking Fake News

Posted by on Oct 30, 2026 in Blog | 0 comments

 

 

We have an international satellite inside our home that gets live television feeds from Europe. We’ve had this dish for 20 years, mostly for Marieta’s mother (she speaks Romanian, and now has Alzheimers — the TV in her room helps maintain a “conversation”).

I see Romanian news coverage almost every day. Something terrific on these TVR International broadcasts struck me and needs to be shared. It should be copied here, and become a regular feature. I wish American news networks would copycat this.

The daily feature is called “BREAKING FAKE NEWS.”

Huh? What? No, this isn’t a parody or a comedy show. This is on the main national news station.

Apparently, Romanian media and culture is just as infected with lies, distortions, memes, and AI-generated slop as here, or anywhere else. National dialogue on important issues gets polluted. It becomes nearly impossible for regular citizens to decipher between fact and fiction. THIS IS A HUGE PROBLEM!

TVR International examines the most egregious “fake” outrage topic of the day and then deconstructs it with actual data, facts, historical records, and expert testimony. Runs about 10 minutes long. The “FAKE” topic is always something plucked straight off social media. Sometimes, they take on popular myths widely believed as true, which are demonstrably false. On this particular day (Friday) TVR showed the now widespread lie that “foreigners” are causing all the problems in France with protests and riots. But they pick a different topic every day, from all parts of the world, and it’s fantastic! Sometimes they go after Trump. Other days, it’s Putin. And Romanians have their own troll factories and sludge sweatshops that gum up our sense of reality. Sadly, Romania has become one of the hubs of a global disinformation network — so it’s good to see the nation’s most watched TV news network exposing their lies.

Sometimes, knowing what ISN’T true can be just as essential as knowing what IS true.

Gee, we sure could use a “BREAKING FAKE NEWS” segment here in the USA. There’s no shortage of fake news that desperately needs to be exposed. We should also expose the vile perpetrators of these lies. They should be known and shamed publicly, though I realize lying has become both entertainment and sport, with no consequences.

I took this photo above of TVR International’s “BREAKING FAKE NEWS” (a great title with a double meaning) this morning….

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2026 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 8

Posted by on Oct 29, 2026 in Blog | 0 comments

 

 

2026-27 NFL SEASON: WEEK 8 – ANALYSIS AND PICKS
2026-27 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 59
LOSSES — 50
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — – $25.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 9-5-1 (+ $365)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,975.

ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)

To read the FULL REPORT, with a write-up and picks on the entire schedule of games this week, CLICK the link below (note that the page is updated regularly between now and mid-day Saturday with more games and content — typically, I end up posting 15-20 bets per week:

CLICK HERE

https://www.betcoin.ag/page/nolan-2026-week8/

 

UPDATED:

FINAL LIST OF WEEK 8 WAGERS:
[For those who just want the picks]

Full-Game Total: OVER 47 points–both teams combined (-110)…L
First Quarter Total: OVER 9.5 points–both teams combined (-115)…L
Player Prop: GB WR Watson OVER 4.5 receptions (-115)…W
Player Prop: DET RB Gibbs UNDER 88.5 rushing yards (-115)
Player Prop: NYJ QB Smith OVER 218.5 passing yards (-115)
Player Prop: LV QB Cousins OVER 239.5 passing yards (-110)
Full-Game Team Total: Dallas UNDER 31.5 points (-115)
Full-Game Side: TAMPA BAY -2.5 (-110) vs. Atlanta
Player Prop: ATL QB Penix UNDER 231.5 passing yards (-115)
Player Prop: TB QB Mayfield UNDER 217.5 passing yards (-115)
Player Prop: TEN QB UNDER 194.5 passing yards (-115)
First-Half Total: PHI-WAS OVER 19.5 (-130) combined both teams scoring
Player Prop: ARZ TE McBride OVER 73.5 receiving yards (-115)
Full-Game Side: CLEVELAND +3.5 vs. Pittsburgh (-110)
Player Prop: LAC RB Mitchell OVEr 1.5 receptions (even)
Full-Game Team Total: New England OVER 26 points (-110)
Player Prop: WAS WR Diggs OVER 4.5 receptions (+125)

 

 

WEEK 8 ANALYSIS AND PICKS

CAROLINA at GREEN BAY (TNF)
Line: Packers -3.5
O/U: 47

Did I really read this correctly? Carolina is on a monster tear – both on the money line and against-the-spread when they’re coming off a loss. And when the Panthers are coming off both a SU loss and ATS non-cover, their next-game record is phenomenal.

I read some subset of data that Carolina either wins or has covered 15 in a row, dating back to mid-2024. Those results are with the same coaching staff and QB/skill players, so data here remains relevant. I tracked this myself and it looks like the Panthers have gone 13-2 ATS after a loss, as best I can tell. This is a long-winded way of saying Carolina has been an outstanding team to bet on coming off a loss in recent years. Note the Panthers got demolished last week at home hosting Tampa Bay. It was a humiliation. Let’s pay attention to teams that rebound well, and this is one of those spots for them. Carolina plus 3.5 is very tempting.

The total on this mid-week game dropped a full point from 48 down to 47. One Reason: Carolina’s defense has looked horrendous at times this season, maybe the worst in the league against the run. Fortunately for them this week, they face a one-dimensional offense that’s also been inconsistent. It would be hard for me to bet the UNDER given what I’ve seen, but capturing the *47* as a key number is helpful if you’re considering a wager on the OVER. I’ll be taking the OVER in this game.

I like two props, plus a wager on the full-game total:

OVER 47 – First, I see two offenses that aren’t afraid to throw the ball. CAR QB Bryce Young averages 38 pass attempts per game and ranks second among NFL QBs in yards per game (285 YPG on average). He’ll face a mid-level pass defense (ranked 13th in yards allowed). As for GB QB Jordan Love, he’s expected to throw early and often. The Packers’ rushing attack is horrific, ranked dead last at just 60 YPG. That’s 15 yards per game lower than the second worst rushing team. Yuck! Even though the Packers are up against a really bad run defense this week (Panthers are the NFL’s worst defense, averaging 5.1 YPC!), Love should still throw plenty of passes. All this passing should be very good for the OVER. And, catching the 47 is key in totals betting, which makes this quite playable.

1Q OVER 9.5 – First-quarter totals can be tricky. Sometimes, they’re sucker plays. Why? A couple of punts, and the UNDERs usually cash. The dynamics do indicate more passing in this matchup, meaning more possible clock stoppage. Capturing a win on 10 is essential here. We also see lots of mistakes from both of these teams, so a turnover wouldn’t be out of the question. I’ll play both teams to combine for 10 points or more in the opening frame.

GB WR WATSON OVER 4.5 CATCHES – Given that Green Bay can’t run the ball at all, that means the WR duo of Christian Watson and Matt Golden get plenty of targets. Golden has been an absolute beast this season, targeted 67 times in 7 games. He’s caught 6 passes in each of the past three games. However, in this short week, go-to Golden is listed as “questionable” (this is a Wed. afternoon report). He didn’t practice, and so Golden might not see as much action in this game. That shifts more possible targets on the other side over to Watson, who’s stat-line isn’t as impressive, but he’s still seeing plenty of passes. Even with Golden getting 12 targets in each of the past two games, his counterpart Watson got 8 throws in each of the past three weeks. If Golden is sidelined, Watson’s stock rises substantially. Even with Golden possibly starting, that could command more coverage from a really bad defense, leaving Watson open to catch passes. We need Watson to catch 5+ passes to cash this ticket. Assuming the Packers’ run misery continues and Golden is questionable, that spells a possible good night for Watson.

Wagers:
Full-Game Total: OVER 47 points–both teams combined (-110)
First Quarter Total: OVER 9.5 points–both teams combined (-115)
Player Prop: GB WR Watson OVER 4.5 receptions (-115)

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Sports Betting Bad Beat Story: Remembering the “Bloody Sock” Game

Posted by on Oct 27, 2026 in Blog | 0 comments

 

 

A BASEBALL BAD BEAT AND THE BLOODY SOCK GAME

Milwaukee is currently up 3-0 in the baseball World Series. Game 4 plays tonight, and the Brewers can sweep it and win their first championship. No team has ever come back to win a World Series after falling behind 0-3. This disparity has happened 25 times before, and all 25 leading teams won. In fact, 21 of them won Game 4 and swept. Things don’t look good for Tampa Bay.

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Spaghetti Sauce Wars

Posted by on Oct 25, 2026 in Blog | 0 comments

 

 

Something unusual happened yesterday. Marieta made spaghetti and she combined two different brands of tomato sauce. She changes recipes all the time — on some occasions cooking everything from scratch, and on other occasions using a store-bought brands.

For 20 years, Rao’s has been our “go to” sauce. Sometimes, we try other brands. But Rao’s always delivers quality and consistency.

Then, came yesterday’s surprise. We made a new discovery.

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One Step Froward, Then Two Steps Backward: Remembering the Gun Control Act of 1968

Posted by on Oct 23, 2026 in Blog | 0 comments

 

 

On this date 58 years ago, President Lyndon Johnson’s GUN CONTROL ACT OF 1968 was signed and became the law of the land. It’s worth remembering on this anniversary — especially since an epidemic of domestic violence and misuse of firearms and mass shootings have become so frequent as federal laws have since lapsed and attempts to control the proliferation of deadly firearms have become a thing of the past.

Sadly, gun laws have not progressed. They have regressed.

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