I suffered a really bad week last time out, so made some adjustments in the written report. I also skipped the video, which has been a regular feature. I need a breather. Instead of write-ups on each game, I am focusing instead on an aspect of betting where my results have been more successful. That’s first quarters, first halves, and team totals. Those options will be the basis of all my wagers for Week #7.
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2020 NFL WAGERING RECORD
Wins — Losses — Pushes 31 — 34 — 2
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $8,805.
Best Bets: 3 — 3 — 0 (- $150.)
Last Week’s Results: – $2,105.
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NOTE: Just in case there’s any doubt I’m betting these plays, I’m also attaching my wagering screen shot.
THIS WEEK’S WAGERS (18 BETS):
CLE OVER 13.5 (FIRST HALF) — Risking 625 to win 500 (BEST BET)
CLE OVER 27.5 TEAM TOTAL FOR GAME — Risking 360 to win 300
CAR OVER 9,5 (FIRST HALF) — Risking 425 to win 300
SFO OVER 9.5 (FIRST HALF) — Risking 420 to win 300
DEN OVER 9.5 (FIRST HALF) — Risking 315 to win 300
JAX OVER 7.5 (FIRST HALF — Risking 405 to win 300
JAX +4 (FIRST HALF) — Risking 309 to win 300
JAX/LAC OVER 9.5 (FIRST QUARTER) — Risking 375 to win 300
CHI OVER 9.5 (FIRST HALF) — Risking 345 to win 300
CHI +3.5 (FIRST HALF) — Risking 339 to win 300
KC OVER 26.5 TEAM TOTAL FOR GAME — Risking 345 to win 300
KC/DEN OVER 9.5 (FIRST QUARTER) — Risking 315 to win 300
TEN + .5 (FIRST HALF) — Risking 432 to win 300
DET + .5 (FIST HALF) — Risking 363 to win 300
GB + 13.5 (IRST HALF) — Risking 490 to win 300
DAL/WAS OVER 9.5 (FIRST QUARTER) — Risking 315 to win 300
BUF/NYJ OVER 9.5 (FIRST QUARTER) — Risking 345 to win 300
SFO/NWE OVER 7.5 (FIRST QUARTER) — Risking 360 to win 300
Everywhere you look on social media — everyone and everything is political.
Trump tweets. Pro-Trump posts. Conspiracy theories. Mindless memes. Vicious attacks on Trump. Links to politically-charged news articles. YouTube clips. Graphs with stats on everything from the economy to COVID. The common thread on most of what’s happening is unmistakable. It’s Trump. It’s all Trump, all the time.
Then, there are discussions and debates — screaming matches, actually. Acquaintances, friends, and even family members have yelled ourselves hoarse at each other in comments and replies, especially here on Facebook. Civil exchanges gradually break down. We get frustrated. Unable to take it anymore, we lash out. We post mean things, even vulgarities. And so, many lifelong relationships have been severed. Friendships have ended. Even parents and children and brothers and sisters stop talking in some cases. Lots of cases. Probably millions of cases.
This isn’t normal.
If you somehow remain undecided about this election and don’t know much about the issues, are confused by the major parties, and perhaps don’t like either of the candidates atop the ticket, let me try and make a very simple appeal to you that hopefully, you might understand. My appeal is as follows:
We can’t take four…..more…..years…..of THIS. We just can’t. So, let’s end it. Let’s end it on Nov. 3rd. Vote to end it.
You say that you’re sick of the political discussions and the arguing and the yelling and the tiresome rants and fog of partisan disinformation. Psst — let me tell you a little secret. Listen carefully….
So are we.
We’re sick of it. We’re sick of it all.
We’re especially exhausted by the petty theatrics, almost entirely created by one hopelessly insecure man craving constant attention. Such theatrics have become, in a word, tiresome.
Instead, we want to wake up on a beautiful morning and not have to worry about the next big scandal that will dominate the news cycle. We want to watch the news and not hear “President Trump” in every sentence. We long for the time when our lives were filled with discussions and social media exchanges about food and music and shows and sporting events and cats and kids and vacations and all the things we love to exchange and share with family, friends, and strangers. We want to slam the OFF button on politics, at least for a time, and get back to the things that make our lives worth living, and that’s not Russian collusion or Hunter’s laptop or Trump’s latest Tweet target.
Let’s end this and end it now!
When I vote Joe Biden, it’s not because I think he can or will save the country. The problems, the divisions, the ignorance, the corruption, and greed, the selfishness, the deception…..it’s all so overwhelming that one man, one party, one election can’t possibly mop up the mess. The floor isn’t just dirty. The house is on fire. It will take more than Joe Biden or Kamala Harris or a Democratic Senate to fix our aches and pains and illnesses.
But I do know Biden will restore some sense of *normality* in daily life. We will be able to go to sleep at night and wake up in the morning without worrying about what absurdity gets tweeted from the White House toilet at 5 am. Rather, we will get a breath of fresh air, a reprieve from the madness, a sliver of order from the disorder, and an opportunity to get back to those things we enjoy.
You are sick of politics? Yeah, me too.
Voting for Donald Trump in 2020 GUARANTEES that the political wars will continue. And, they may even escalate into ugliness we’ve rarely seen in this country. Voting for Donald Trump in 2020 means social media becomes even more toxic. Our public space won’t merely be crowded out by politics and arguments. It will be a monsoon. A flood.
Voting for Joe Biden in 2020 does not mean politics ends. But the volume will return to a normal decibel level. It means some measure of sanity and compromise. With Joe Biden, we won’t have to worry about raw dogging porn stars and payoffs, the president’s golf addiction, daily insults of world leaders, obsession with ratings and polls, and faux patriotism and faith wrapped in the flag and the Bible. Some people might call this “boring.” I call it normal.
Let’s vote for normal in 2020. Let’s save the country. Let’s save our sanity. Let’s save our friendships. Let’s save our families. Let’s save ourselves.
I took Randy Newman’s wonderfully catchy “Short People” off his 1977 album ‘Little Criminals’ and had some fun adding my own lyrics. Recorded as a rough cut with no rehearsal on Oct. 19, 2020.
“TRUMP PEOPLE”
Trump people got….no reason Trump people got….no reason Trump people got….no reason ……….or rhyme.
They got little brains Tiny little minds They walk around tellin’ great big lies. They wave big blue flags They’re off-a their meds and red MAGA hats atop their deplorable little heads.
Well, I ….. don’t want no Trump people, no…. Don’t want no Trump people, no, no…. Don’t want no Trump people ‘…..round here!
(I had a dream) Trump people are just the same — as you and I (That’s what they say) We’re all brothers and sisters until we die (Yeah, but we’ll lead the way)
Trump people got……no vision Trump people have…no wisdom Trump people, lookin’ for someone to blame.
They post Russian memes They hit so low They think Hunter’s sinkin’ Corn pop Joe.
American government….its “deep state, deep” Everyone a-around, it’s… “sheep! sheep! sheep!” Obama’s a Commie and masks are dumb They blame ANTIFA so gonna grab their guns.
Well, I …. don’t want no short-minded people! Don’t want no Trump people! Don’t want no Trump people ’round here!
I enjoyed a nice win last week, going 6-2, which gives me both a winning record and a profit for the season. I’m hopeful the “learning curve” on this most unusual season is over and we’ll be able to take advantage of situations with more predictable outcomes after a losing month of September.
Here’s my weekly video discussion in this week’s games. The video runs for about 30 minutes.
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2020 NFL WAGERING RECORD
Wins — Losses — Pushes 29 — 26 — 2
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $10,910.
Best Bets: 3 — 2 — 0 (+ $400.)
Last Week’s Results: + $1,575.
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NOTE: See video presentation which discusses every game this week and all ten bets I made.
I recorded this short 5-minute song, this morning. It seems most fitting right now and speaks to our time.
“Summer’s End” by the late John Prine.
Since his passing, I’ve become even more of a fan of John Prine and his music. Released in 2018 on “The Tree of Forgiveness” album, “Summer’s End” was a wonderfully moving song written about the opioid addiction crisis. But John Prine’s comforting message of loss and hope could apply to any and all of us in our own times of confusion and conflict. I’m posting my first cover here on YouTube, with special thanks to David Huckfelt & Over The Rhine (Etown Radio) for being my “backing band.” I hope you enjoy it as much as I take away sharing it with you.
“Summer’s end came faster than we wanted….”
That says it all, really. A more brilliant nor more poignant lyric has not been written.
Casinos and gambling games were changing before the global pandemic known as COVID. Now, the entire gambling sector is forced to hit the reset button. Will casino-resorts come back like before? What about the thousands of casino workers, including dealers — should they look for other jobs and work on developing alternative skills? What games will gamblers be playing 5, 10, and 20 years from now? Those are just a few of the questions addressed and answered in this in-depth (1-hour, 45-min.) discussion on all aspects of casino and gambling culture.
1:07:09 – Slot machines and video poker.(Note: The correct title of the book mentioned is “What Stays in Vegas” written by Adam Tanner) 1:11:40 – The future of poker, both live and online
I had a small win last week, going 6-4-1, but the Arizona Cardinals’ upset loss at Carolina was a bankroll killer. That game represented a $1,100 swing. Looking back, those are the bets you have to cash, or it’s tough to have a winning week.
Here’s my weekly video discussion in this week’s games. The video runs about 35 minutes. FF to the 6-min mark if you want analysis on each game:
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2020 NFL WAGERING RECORD
Wins — Losses — Pushes 23 — 24 — 2
Starting Bankroll: 10,000
Current Bankroll: 9,335.
Best Bets: 2 — 2 — 0 (-$400.)
Last Week’s Results: + $270.
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GAMES I DID NOT BET:
CAR at ATL -1.5 [O/U: 54]: I wanted to play CAR +3.5 but missed the send-out number and by the time I had money in hand, the line dropped to +1 to +1.5. That’s like jumping on a missed flight. Some advice: Don’t try to board after the plane left the gate. As far as the total at 54, that looks about right. It’s tempting to play this total OVER given the propensity of ATL games to soar over most numbers, especially with that horrid defense surrendering avg. of 35 points-per-game. However, I’m passing on this one. No bets.
LV at KC -11 [O/U: 55.5]: It’s KC -11 or nothing for me here, as LV is outmatched in just about every area. I was repulsed by what I saw from Raiders last week and can easily see a slide downward as the season wears on. That’s New Orleans upset by Las Vegas in the opener was a mirage. This is a subpar team. Surprisingly, KC has gone UNDER the total in three straight games despite its reputation for points — any other year I’d bet the UNDER, but not this season given how the scoring numbers are way up. Raiders split their first four games, which all went OVER the total. LV is just is 9-15 ATS in its last 24 games as a road underdog. Short week for the Chiefs, after beating New England on MNF. No bets.
DEN at NWE -10 [O/U: 48.5]: I have no interest in this game. QB Stidham reportedly is getting his first NFL start. Pass.
LAR -7 at WAS {O/U: 45.5]: Rams -7 looks too easy, but I’d be careful about laying that number here. LAR sleepwalked to an easy win last week and haven’t been tested much (wins versus three soft opponents, plus BUF–which they lost). I’m also concerned about LAR travel here with their third game in five weeks in the East time zone. WAS is a mess with QB change this week and it’s hard to make a case for betting them, but there’s some chance LAR don’t take this opponent as seriously as other games, which ends up being closer than the spread indicates. Also, WAS has been outscored 75-24 in the first half this season, which shows poor game preparation. No wagers.
JAX at HOU -5.5 [O/U: 55.5]: HOU is laying -5.5, yet they’re winless at 0-4 and fired their polarizing head coach midweek. This is a very strange number that would normally make me lean to JAX. But the Jags have steadily deteriorated in performance the last three weeks so I can’t back them either, as tempting as the points do appear. Hard to believe this stat, but it’s true: Texans don’t have a takeaway yet, are minus-5 in turnovers. No bets.
BUF -1 at TEN [O/U: 49]: I have no interest in this game, but lean do lean to TEN based on the second straight week of travel for Bills, plus Titans being more rested. TEN, despite being 3-0, in my view has underperformed and due for a solid effort. This is an opponent they won’t take lightly. BUF won its first four games, scoring 31 PPG. All four games went OVER the total. Meanwhile, TEN won its first three games by combined total of just six points. No bets.
ARZ -7 at NYJ [O/U: 47.5]: ARZ played a horrible game last week and now plays another roadie, this time versus the NFL’s worst team. The matchup seems like a perfect spot for Cardinals to gain some confidence and bounce back with a big win. But I’m off the ARZ train, for now. Cardinals were held to 133 passing yards last week; they gave up 444 yards to Carolina! Not sure they deserve to be laying a full touchdown after blowing two games in a row, versus weak competition — Detroit and the Panthers. No bets.
MIN at SEA -7 [O/U: 57.5): Here’s the highest total of the week based on two high-scoring offenses combined with two defenses that can’t seem to stop anybody. I’d normally throw caution to the wind and try to stand up to the storm winds — fading expectations of points being scored and take the contrarian value — but I can’t do that right now. I lean to MIN plus the 7, but won’t be making any wagers.
GAMES I DID BET:
PHI at PIT -7 [O/U: 44]: A rested PIT team that’s played excellent defense, so far, should be able to handle an injury-plagued opponent coming off a false win versus a decimated opponent (SFO) last week. Really bad situation for PHI here, still struggling on offense and now facing a tough test. I’ll lay the -7 and also look for points to be scored, particularly in the first half. I found a 20.5 (first-half total) so I’m counting on these two teams to produce at least three touchdowns. A 14-7 Steeler lead at the half would be nice. Two bets here — the favourite and OVER in the first-half. PIT -7 and IH OVER 20.5. Also, TEASE PIT to -1.
CIN at BAL -13.5 [O/U: 49.5]: Give me the AFC North division dog getting nearly two touchdowns. CIN has shown steady improvement every week (one tie, and one win) and as the Bengals offense gels with more experience, they should be able to stay within the margins of games like this, which may have a jaded line based on outdated perception (yeah, CIN still has much to prove). BAL looked sloppy at times last week, despite the easy win at WAS, and could take this opponent lightly. I think any capper who understands betting value has to play CIN here, so I will. CIN +13.5
IND -1 at CLE [O/U: 47.5]: This looks like one of the best games of the week with a matchup of CLE which is scoring lots of points versus one of NFL’s best defenses, allowing just 11 PPG its last three contests. Tempting to play the home dog here, but I’ll pass on the side. Instead, given how scoring is up, I”’ play OVER 23 in the first half of this game. Both of these teams have been solid offensively in the first halfs, so anything under the league average (25 PPG in 1H) looks bettable. 1H OVER 23.
MIA at SFO -8.5 [O/U: 50.5]: QB Garoppolo isn’t expected to play here; could be 3rd-stringer Beathard. QB issues and injuries haven’t stopped the 49ers from scoring points. But they’re just 2-2 and I’m not sure a team that’s lost both their home games this season should now be laying more than a TD to anyone, especially since MIA does occasionally show up with a solid effort. Dolphins did have SEA on ropes in 2H last week before a killer interception. They could very well be 4-0 ATS, but as many young teams do — they make mistakes. Given SFO injury issues, I’ll count on Dolphins to be able to put enough things together to get the cover. MIA +8.5
NYG at DAL -8.5 [O/U: 54]: Dallas should win this game by four touchdowns. But will they? I’m counting on the talent disparity and motivation to created a lopsided game from the openning kickoff. Keep in mind DAL is the #1 ranked offense in the NFL and should get into the 30+ range versus a weak defense. Meanwhile, the Cowboys terrible defense finally faces an opponent they should be able to shut down. It’s hard to see how Giants with a horrid offensive line and no rushing game will keep up with DAL, which is absolutely desperate for a win. It also hurts the Giants to play on the road a second straight week while DAL has been at home, in their own training facility, and stewing over a terrible performance last week versus CLE. I expect they’ll take it out on the Giants here, who have lost the last three visits to DAL by an average of 17 points. Former DAL head coach and current NYG offensive coordinator J. Garret simply doesn’t have the weapons here to take advantage of any presumed insider knowledge based on his years with the Cowboys. I’m laying the chalk and also teasing DAL down to -2.5 DAL -8.5 and DAL teased on two plays (with New Orleans and with Pittsburgh) BEST BET (DAL/NOR TEASER)
LAC at NOR -8.5 [O/U: 50]: Saints appeared to get their confidence back last week with a big win at DET and back home now, they’ll be motivated to get to 3-2 on MNF. LAC, losers of three straight, play another road game here, and young QB is getting just his fourth NFL start. I’ll fade the Chargers prospects of pulling off the possible upset here. NOR is a notoriously poor early-season team (ATS) but once they get a few games under their belt, under Sean Peyton they turn into a winning and covering machine. I do have some concern LAC defense could be a factor and NOR does occasionally fall short when laying big spreads versus bog dogs. But here, on MNF even without the boisterous home crowd, NOR should be in good shape to take care of business. I think the better value rather than laying -8.5 now, is to tease this down to -2.5 (I got this early in the week teased down to -1 when the line was -7).
THIS WEEK’S WAGERS (8 bets):
PITTSBURGH -7 vs. Philadelphia — Laying $220 to win $200
PITTSBURGH/PHILADELPHIA OVER 20.5 (1H) — Laying $330 to win $300
CINCINNATI +13.5 vs. Baltimore — Laying $275 to win $250
INDIANAPOLIS/CLEVELAND OVER OVER 23 (1H) — Laying $330 to win $300
MIAMI +8.5 vs. San Francisco — Laying $330 to win $300
DALLAS -8.5 vs. NY Giants — Laying $550 to win $500
— lives in government housing
— no apparent skills or knowledge
— doesn’t pay taxes
— six bankruptcies
— sponges free healthcare
— no creditworthiness (a deadbeat)
— five kids from three different wives *
— drives a Cadillac
A desperate plea to the last of the die-hard Trump supporters — this is your final chance to get aboard.
I know a little something about helicopters and the final moments of dictators.
In 1989, I was 800 feet away from the helicopter that swooped Nicolae Ceausescu off the roof in Bucharest, while thousands broke down the doors and swarmed over and ransacked the Romanian Communist Party Central Committee Building.
Years before that, I sat next to a former Marine in a political science class and was fortunate to talk with him. His stories from Vietnam were mesmerizing. He’d once been assigned to one of the final helicopters to depart from the American Embassy which was evacuating everyone who could fit onto the aircraft.
Who else remembers watching those grainy newsreels from Saigon, and who can ever forget those still-haunting images of that one last helicopter departing from the rooftop, leaving hundreds and perhaps thousands of desperate and screaming Vietnamese people behind?
Now, in 202o America, we have reached our own helicopter moment.
Right now, this moment in time is the last Huey lifting off as a lifeline. Soon, this final opportunity will rise slowly from the roof, then gradually become a fading speck in the sky, and finally, it shall be gone — forever. It shall disappear. There is no going back. There are no more flights after this. There will be no — more — helicopters.
This is your final chance.
—– We don’t care that you supported him in the past.
—– We don’t care that you still agree with many of his policies.
—– We don’t care that you’ve said and written things that made your allegiance to your party and devotion to conservative principles seem unwavering.
None of that matters now.
This is not a time nor a place for finger-pointing, nor accusation.
Rather, this is the time to recognize a dire situation for what it is and climb onto the helicopter. We are extending our arms and hands and reaching towards you. We welcome the opportunity to embrace you, even after the fights and the pain. We want you with us. We are pleading with you one last time — save yourself. Please.
If my voice doesn’t persuade you, perhaps General Hayden’s will. Please take just two minutes to watch this important video:
Get on board.
If you do not — I can only speak for myself, here — but you will have diminished yourself, perhaps beyond repair. It’s your reputation and character and future credibility which are at stake in your decision. Given the overwhelming amount of damning evidence which, perhaps secretly, you know to be true, should you still chose to ignore it all and cling to your selfish pride, well then that is something we shall not forget. That is something most of us cannot forgive.
Mark my words — — days, weeks, months, and even years from now — we will remember who was there when it counted and who made the wise choice and who made the wrong choice. And if you make the wrong choice, it means you are no better than him. It means — YOU ARE HIM.
Now, today, at this minute, all that matters is you get onboard with sanity and leave the madness behind. The engine is running. The blades are spinning. Lift-off is now.
