Posted by Nolan Dalla on Oct 2, 2026 in Blog |
2026-27 NFL SEASON: WEEK 4 – ANALYSIS AND PICKS
2026-27 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 26
LOSSES — 24
PUSH — 1
NET WIN/LOSS — – $295.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 10-8-0 (+ $105)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,705.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
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LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
Read last week’s full report HERE.
Full Game Side – ATL +6.5 v. GBP (-110)…W
First-Half Side – ATL +3.5 (-115)…W
Player Prop – ATL RB B. Robinson OVER 24.5 yards (-110)…W
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 22.5 pass completions (-115)…L
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 35 pass attempts (-115)…L
Full-Game Side: DET -6.5 vs. NYJ (-115)…W
Full-Game Side: CAR -2.5 vs. CLE (-115)…L
Player Prop: CAR WR McMillan OVER 60 receiving yards (-115)…L
Full-Game Side: ARZ +8.5 vs. SFO (-110)…W
Player Prop: NOR QB Cousins OVER 211.5 passing yards (-115)…W
Player Prop: HOU RB Montgomery OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-110)…L
Full-Game Side: SEA -7.5 v. WAS (-105)…L
Full-Game Side: DET -6.5 v. NYJ (-110)…W
First Drive Result: NYJ punt (+105)…W
Full-Game Team Total: NYJ UNDER 20.5 (-110)…L
Full-Game Side: MIN -1.5 vs. TBB (-115)…W
Player Prop: BUF TE Kincaid OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-115)…L
First-Half Team Total: Chicago OVER 9.5 points (-105)…W
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WEEK 4 ANALYSIS AND PICKS
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WASHINGTON vs. INDIANAPOLIS (early game in London)
Line: Colts -4.5
Total: O/U 48.5
This line opened at -3.5 and has since moved up to -4.5 (as of Friday night). That significant movement –crossing the 4– will trigger a bet on the underdog.
These two teams, both 1-2, are nearly identical–statistically speaking. Both score roughly 24 points per game and perform slightly below average in yardage. Defensively, they’re close, also.
Journeyman backup QB M. Mariota will start for the Commanders. That skepticism might have kept me off the game until I saw him lead his team to one of the biggest upset surprises of the season, defeating Seattle last week. Anything close to that level of performance by this Mariota offense (versus what was the NFL’s best defense) should keep the live underdog very much in the game, where points could be a factor.
This becomes an easy decision to take the Commanders, despite money moving the line in the other direction.
I also like one player prop. IND RB J. Taylor is a smart bet to go UNDER the high total of 90.5 rushing yards. His YPC continues to decline, falling to just 3.9 per rush, which is below league average. Last season, he ran for 4.9 YPC in the first half of the season (Colts crashed and burned down the stretch). in this matchup, Taylor faces a solid WAS defensive stop unit, which allows just 3.8 YPC, ranking third in the NFL in that category. That could force the Colts into passing more than they like.
Two bets — one underdog Washington and the Colts’ star RB to fall short of his number.
Wagers:
Full-Game Side – WAS +4.5 v. IND (-110)
Player Prop – IND RB J. Taylor UNDER 90.5 rushing yards (-115)
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NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO
Line: Bills -7
Total: O/U 49
Until I see the Patriots win an important game versus a good team, they’re probably a decent fade. Let’s face it, they just don’t play well when facing talent at least as good, or better. Evidence a Week 1 loss to Seattle (with a backup QB) and being absolutely destroyed by Jacksonville. This week, they’ll face arguably the NFL’s top offense.
Buffalo tried their best to give the game away last week (5 TOs!!!), yet still ended up with a win and cover. The mark of a great team is winning when they don’t play their best. I expect the Bills not to make those same dumb mistakes again, not with the chance to essentially put the AFC East race to rest early in the season. The Bills at 4-0 leading the Patriots at 1-3 probably locks up the division the first week in October. Unreal. Oh, and this is Buffalo’s third-straight home game.
The divide between these two AFC East offenses is like night and day after three weeks. Buffalo is averaging an NFL-best 34 PPG, in contrast to NWE which is averaging just 12 PPG. That’s pathetic. Pats have scored just two offensive TDs in three games. The Bills are also averaging 417 total yards per game while the Patriots grind out 105 yards per game fewer. Sure, Buffalo is vulnerable defensively, but do the Patriots have enough firepower to keep this within a touchdown?
As for player props, I’m wagering on the Patriots’ quarterback OVER, which seems like a contradiction. Look for NWE QB D. Maye OVER 230.5 pass yards. This is an excellent bargain opportunity and price on Maye, who has struggled in these spots and has yet to play a good game. I don’t like the word “overdue” in sports gambling, but one expects the numbers will improve. The Bills’ defense has been torched at times (allowing 31 points to both HOU and DET). Assuming Buffalo rolls up points (and they should) that will likely force Maye into lots of passing, playing catch up. We often see losing teams throw for lots of yards, some of it coming in “trash time.” This looks like one of those situations.
Wagers:
Full-Game Side – BUF -7 vs. NEW (-105)
Player Prop – NEW QB D. Maye OVER 230.5 passing yards (-115)
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FINAL LIST OF WEEK 4 WAGERS:
(For those who just want the picks)
Full-Game Side – WAS +4.5 v. IND (-110)
Player Prop – IND RB J. Taylor UNDER 90.5 rushing yards (-115)
Full-Game Side – BUF -7 vs. NEW (-105)
Player Prop – NEW QB D. Maye OVER 230.5 passing yards (-115)
Full-Game Side – ARZ -2 vs. NYG (-110)
Full-Game Side – MIN -10 vs. MIA (-110)
Full-Game Total – DAL/HOU OVER 48 (-110)
Full-Game Team Total – DAL OVER 22 (-115)
First-Half Team Total – DAL OVER 10 (-125)
First-Half Side – GBP -2.5 vs. TBB (-110)
Full-Game Side – LAR -3 vs. PHI (-120)
Full-Game Side – SEA -7 vs. LAC (-110)
Full-Game Side – CAR +3.5 vs. DET (-110)
Full-Game Team Total – CAR OVER 22.5 (-130)
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Sep 29, 2026 in Blog |
MY FOOTBALL BETTING — 2026 (UPDATE)
The first month is over and done. I’d like to give readers an overall update and assessment in this report. Investors can visit the Facebook page “2026 LAS VEGAS NFL BETTING SYNDICATE” to follow along with every football pick this season. I’ll also share my notes about what I’ve learned, so far.
Overall, this has been an excellent start to the season. However, there were also disappointments, and errors in judgment which cost me. Again, I’m sharing those thoughts here.
— Let’s start with the LAST MAN STANDING contest (Stations Casinos). 6,900 entries, and it’s already down to only 600 remaining. Prize — $150,000 to the winner. We started with 5 tickets, and still have 3 live entries. If we last a few more weeks, this will get really interesting. Very happy with these results.
— WILLIAM HILL (CAESARS) NFL WEEKLY contest. We’ve struck out on this contest, so far. Nothing of consequence to report. Huge number of entries, so it’s a longshot, anyway.
— WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST is the biggest financial investment — we have 4 entries costing $6,000. Close to a thousand entries in the contest. This is the contest we finished second in two seasons ago, for $185,000 in profit. The first leg of mini-contest is done, and we failed to cash. However, the overall season standings and results are excellent. Three of these four tickets are hitting 60 percent — if we hit 60 percent over 18 weeks, we’ll certainly cash in this contest. But, it’s still very early:
OVERALL RECORD: 34-26-0
TICKET #1 (Record: 9-6-0)
TICKET #2 (Record: 9-6-0)
TICKET #3 (Record: 9-6-0)
TICKET #4 (Record: 7-8-0)
— CIRCA MILLIONS is the contest we most want to do well in, the most. That’s because it’s a $1,000,000 for first, and I believe it pays the top 100 finishers. Four entries for $1,000 each, costing $4,000. Around 7,000 entries, if I recall correctly. Here we have two tickets in terrific shape, and three in contention. Very encouraging results, so far:
OVERALL RECORD: 36 – 24 – 0
TICKET #1 (Record: 7-8-0)
TICKET #2 (Record: 10-5-0)
TICKET #3 (Record: 10-5-0)
TICKET #4 (Record: 9-6-0)
— WESTGATE COLLEGE FOOTBALL CONTEST cost us $1,500 invested on 3 entries. This is the contest I don’t expect to do well in, given I don’t give this as much time and frankly, do not follow college football nearly as much as the NFL. Still, I opted to play it, hoping to learn more and perhaps make adjustments that will net a profit. One ticket is surprisingly in good shape and on the margins of cashing based on percentages. I’d love to have one ticket cash in this contest:
OVERALL RECORD: 43-41-0
ENTRY #1: Season Record to Date: ( 14 – 14 )
ENTRY #2: Season Record to Date: ( 12 – 16 )
ENTRY #3: Season Record to Date: ( 17 – 11 )
— MINNESOTA VIKINGS FUTURES TICKET: I have ONE futures bet, which is a $1,000 wager on Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC. This pays 23-1 ($23,000). So far, so good. Vikings are 3-0. Even better, they’re in first place and already beat two division rivals. It’s early, but this started out almost perfectly. Admittedly, I’m worried about their QB situation.
— BETCOIN POSTED NFL PICKS (ALL CASH BETS) are 25 wins / 23 losses which net resulted in a small loss, so far. This is because of the vig on losses. I’d like to see better results here, as about half of my wagers are on player props, and that’s historically been a strong performer. Still early in the season, and I have a history of starting slowly. This is the write-ups I post at the site BETCOIN.AG, which I also bet. I post links on my page to this once a week.
Now, some notes on what I’ve learned. I’ll keep these brief (perhaps a video is better, since I can go into more detail — I’ll do that next time):
1. I’ve made the mistake of betting college football favorites of -14.5 on approx. 6 selections, and lost all of them. Four of the spots were half point losses, meaning my team won by only 14. I have to be careful about that number going forward. The thinking goes — when oddsmakers give that hook onto two touchdowns, they really beg for underdog money, so the favorite is actually the value (oversimplifying here). When I researched it, I found no correlation on +14.5 faves or dogs performing out of the ordinary (20 years of college football data). So, I just got very unlucky. Nonetheless, I’m going to avoid those -14.5 faves going forward.
2. My weighing of bets is poor. I’ve never been good with weighing picks, on any sport. This includes th NFL. Betting more on a game we really like has not proven successful for me. This is one reason I mostly flat bet (on the reports I write). However, I have weighed many teams more heavily in the contests and those have not done well. Some of my biggest picks in the contests, on multiple tickets, have crashed and burned. Despite this, the results are very good. I’ll go with the strategy of diversifying more, when I can. Best example is the NFL SEATTLE bet I placed on all the contest tickets, because the spread on the contests was -7, and the Seahawks closed at -8, so we were getting great value. Seattle lost outright. Those losses are a killer, because they destroy all the tickets when they lose. Of course, when they win….
3. I have to be very careful about betting public teams, almost always as big favorites. In college football weeks 2-3, I was kicking myself for picking Notre Dame, USC, Penn State, Texas A&M, and other big schools. Those teams are NEVER a bargain, and more often oddsmakers shade the lines a point or two because they know how the public money flows. I’m really upset with myself for playing these sucker bets. I should know better, after all these years. Dumb mistake.
4. Line movement used to be a very useful tool, or at least was a good starting point. But when a game opens at -3 and gets bet up to -4.5 (on the open market), it doesn’t always mean the -3 favorite should be picked in the contests (those numbers are stale, since they come out Tue. or Wed. and lines have moved by kickoff). This is not as useful a handicapping tool today as it used to be (lots of dumb money sometimes moves lines).
5. A QB change (usually the starter gets injured and the backup is playing instead) can sometimes move a pre-game spread 3-6 points. But the outcomes aren’t what expect. Take the MNF game last night with Williams out, and Keenum starting for the Bears. Line shifted to PHILA -4.5. Of course, the Bears started th backup and they won by 20. Same situation with Washington, as line shifted, and then the Commanders busted the Super Bowl champs by winning outright. QB changes aren’t always what they seem, and the market often overvalues this change.
Finally, I’ve had a few people ask why I share picks publicly, especially the contest picks. What I’ve learned is — almost everyone thinks of themselves as a football expert. So, even sharing things publicly doesn’t impact things. People still want to make their own picks. If the contest goes deep and it’s close in the standings, obviously I will then be more guarded (you can’t tip picks to competitors in a close contest in the final weeks, for instance). Hope this explains my M.O.
I’ll share more thoughts in the next update, near the end of October.
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