The final scene of the classic 1972 movie “The Candidate” portends the conundrum Democrats are now facing in the aftermath of their most decisive victory in decades. So ,what’s next? The dog in the long chase finally caught the car. What do we do now?
Let me offer TEN powerful suggestions — some which are likely, and still others very unlikely to happen:
#1 — THE LEGISLATURE IS A CO-EQUAL PARTNER OF GOVERNMENT
This is a fundamental precept of the U.S. Constitution. Underline this. Remember this. Memorize this. Make this your purpose and your guide. For far too long, the legislative branch has become defanged, inept, weakened, corrupted, subservient, gutless, and pathetic. The bottom may have been the Republican congress (and Senate) under Trump. Reclaim your rights and your purpose. Do the job you were elected to do. No, the President is not superior to your powers. Demand an equal voice and leadership role.
#2 — REFORM YOURSELVES
Congress has lost the trust of the American people. This is a non-partisan fact. 8 our of 10 American voters dislike and distrust Congress. It is essential to reform this once-respected institution. There are many ways to do this. Start with making profiteering illegal. Next, reduce the influence and impact of lobbyists. Then, reform your own insurance plans, retirement packages, and other perks that have ruined your reputation. Make punishments mean something. Get tough, and make it impossible for anyone to vote against congressional and senatorial reforms without paying a political price [also, go after ANYONE who benefited from insider corruption in the Trump regime with investigations and hearing — and prosecute to the fullest extent possible]
#3 — BE PRAGMATIC AND PRACTICAL
Messaging is everything. Communication is vital. We must present the most persuasive leaders to the public. (Hint: That’s NOT Sen. Schumer!). Americans hired Democrats to do A JOB. With that job come duties and responsibilities. Stick to the script. Stay on point. Hammer the key issues that made a Blue wave into a massive Democratic Tsunami. Every Democrat who benefited in the midterms should rally around these key issues, which are obvious. Avoid revolutionary activist messaging — we can change the world after stopping the bleeding. Address the REAL needs of the struggling working class. If we don’t do this, everything would spiral in the reverse direction in the next election. Note: Admittedly, many of these initiatives will NOT be signed into law. So, see #5 below.
#4 — DEMOCRATS ARE THE “BIG TENT” PARTY
Democratic leaders are already being asked about Democratic Socialists and inevitable debates and friction within the party. These questions are easy to address. Repeat the truth again and again and do not deviate with a public airing of intra-party squabbles. Democrats can elect far-Left candidates who are great leaders representing ultra-liberal constituencies such as New York and Boston and San Francisco. That’s democracy! And we’ve also seen, Democrats can elect Christian theologians with moderate positions in Kansas. That’s democracy, too! Leftists can win. Centrists can win. Do not fall for the MAGA trap and let them define us. WE SHALL DEFINE OURSELVES.
#5 — GET STUFF DONE! NOW!
This should be a slam dunk and easy way to take the political high-ground and continue exposing the despicable horrors of Trump and the MAGA movement and all the corrupt scumbags. Make this into a mass barrage of legislative action we haven’t seen since the 1960s. Think BIG. New Deal. Great Society. Redux. Pass bills! Send them straight to the President’s desk, then watch as he blocks everything good for the country — and takes more Republicans down the tubes with him. Republicans get pissed? So what. Elections have consequences, right? PASS BILLS!!!!!! NOW!!!!! Flood his fucking desk with unsigned bills. Then, hold press conferences outside pointing the figure at the PROBLEM. On resorting Affordable Care Act protections. On ending stupid destructive tariffs with valued trade partners. On stopping the absurd war in Iran that caused so much of this mess. On reducing hostilities with our allies. On curtailing the abuses of ICE. On exposing rampant corruption. On getting tough on cyber crime. On codifying data centers! On going after financial institutions who are ruining consumers. The list is long. Americans want these things. PASS THEM. NOW!!!!! [and I stress again, if Trump doesn’t sign them, that’s no reason not to make the DISTINCTION clear between what the two parties stand for]
#6 — WORK WITH MODERATE REPUBLICANS (if you can find any)
Sadly, Republicans jumped on the Trump Crazy Train and ran right off the cliff with the madman. Good riddance. Those few brave souls who preserved the last vestiges of true Constitutional Conservatism (Liz Cheney, Thomas Massie, and others) were excommunicated from the cult. If you can find any sane and honest Republicans left, welcome them to the negotiation room and work out compromises. Prediction: We are likely to see more Republicans break now, given the political realities. It’s tough to draw lines as to which ones are actually honest enough to work with, as opposed to desperate. The main point is — if moderate Republicans want to be a part of progress, let them in.
#7 — DO *NOT* IMPEACH TRUMP
Stop with all this stupid talk of impeachment hearing, votes, trials etc.. It’s not happening. The votes are not there. It won’t happen (barring something ahead that’s catastrophic–which admittedly COULD happen). Impeachment talk and proceedings detract from serious needs of the American people and what they voted for in this election. Trump and many of his vile henchmen belong in prison. They should be ruined for life. All of them. But let’s be practical and realistic. Two previous attempts at impeachment already failed. Trump should never have been allowed to run for office again after his role in trying to overthrow the government on 1-6-21. But he ended up winning in 2024. He’s also a godsend — a heaping problem pile of SHIT STINK for Republicans NOW and in the FUTURE. On a purely partisan level, having Trump as President will remain as a drag for Republicans. They will not be able to wash his smell away. HANG TRUMP AROUND EVERY REPUBLICAN NECK. That’s goes for now, and in 2028. And, he’s going to lose his sanity — you can absolutely count on it. He won’t shut up. He’s going to become a raging self-absorbed lunatic. So, make HIM the issue again in 2028, and maybe we can destroy MAGA, Christian nationalism, and the vile movement he’s fronted once and for all. Let TRUMP keep on digging MAGA’s grave.
#8 — PICKING SEN. CHUCK SCHUMER IS A MISTAKE
Want to show America that this is truly …. a new era? Okay then, clean house! Sen. Schumer was duly elected and can be a viable Senator. He should serve the completion of his term. But Senate Majority Leader? HELL NO !!!!! He is a *horrible* face and an even worse voice for the dawn of a new era. Like buying a new tuxedo to wear to the ball, and then slipping on an old pair of worn-out brown shoes. Has Chuck Schumer ever persuaded anyone to do anything? Sticking him on TV every night to babble about Senate protocols is destroying an opportunity. I won’t even touch his moderate positions, corporate ties, AIPAC allegiances, and his reputation as a “has been.” He is toxic. It would be a huge mistake to select him as one of the highest-level Democrats in the nation at a time when most of us are excited and hopeful. Sadly, he probably gets the gig.
#9 — HAKEEM JEFFRIES IS *NOT* THE FACE AND VOICE WE NEED
Rep. Jeffries has paid his political dues and should be respected as a congressman. Maybe he’d be a really good Majority Whip, or in another leadership position. But, do we really want him on TV every day as the primary advocate for Democrats? Has he shown any of the skills of the great House Speakers of the past? No. This is NOT the person we desperately need right now. Yet, he’s very likely to become Speaker of the House. This is another WASTED OPPORTUNITY. We blew it with Nancy Pelosi a decade ago, who was grossly non-persuasive and dragged the entire party down. Jeffries is likely to meet a similar fate. Combine him with Sen. Schumer and this becomes a counterpart of Trump, and the majority of voters remain cynical. I expect Democrats will pick Jeffries, and this will hurt the message of “change.”
#10 — INTRODUCE PROJECT 2028
Start a progressive counterpart to “Project 25” and all the disastrous MAGA policies. Start passing all the bills now, and *if* and *when* they fail in this gridlocked session, pitch them again and again and again on the next campaign and beyond. Use the nationally-popular faces and voices of a NEW GENERATION of progressive Democrats — Texan James Talarico, Jon Ossof (Georgia), Andy Beshear (Kentucky Gov.), Sen. Colom (assuming he wins in Mississippi), and others who bring excitement and passion to a potentially new era. There as so many issues where we know 2/3rds of the nation are in agreement. EMBRACE THEM ALL AND MAKE THOSE THE CORNERSTONES: Minimum wage raise, fair taxation, path to citizenship, female reproductive rights, anti-corruption initiatives, regulation of banks and financial institutions, protecting government lands and resources, ending stupid wars, on and on.
All of these initiatives should be done. The fewer that are implemented, the worse the push-back and swing-back will be against us in 2028.
We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity. Don’t blow it. Seize it!
SEASON BETTING RECORD: WINS — 69 LOSSES — 57 PUSH — 2 NET WIN/LOSS — + $210. LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 10-7-1 (+ $235) STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000. CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,210.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
We’ve now reached the regular season mid-way point. It’s nice to be in the profit column – though my win margin is razor thin. We’ve taken more bad beats than usual this year, but no one cares about excuses. Let’s get straight to a new slate of games and try and pick some winners.
JACKSONVILLE at BALTIMORE [TNF] Line: Jaguars -10 O/U: 39.5
A few weeks ago, this looked like a premier mid-week Thursday night showdown. Now, it’s a lopsided mismatch with the road team favored by double digits. Question is—–has the line moved too far and might value exist with contrarian wagers related to the home underdog?
Baltimore’s QB situation has become dire. Starter Lamar Jackson is out, then it was just announced that backup QB Tyler Huntley suffered a season-ending turf toe injury. That leaves whoever answers the Craig’s List ad for a job opening. On Wednesday, the Ravens unexpectedly picked up journeyman Jacoby Brissett from Arizona, who might be a solid stand-in if he had more time to unpack his suitcase. However, he won’t be available this week. That means an undrafted rookie from UConn, Joe Fagnano will get the start.
Data Point: Rookie QBs actually fare better than might be expected in their initial starts. The overall positive results are jaded somewhat by many of those rookie QBs being very high-pedigree first-round draft choices — such as Williams (CHI), Nix (DEN), etc. most recently who started many games in rookie seasons and fared pretty well. Unfortunately, when rookie QBs aren’t in that class, they perform much worse ATS. Since 2015, rookie QBs starting and getting +6.5 or more points are a horrid 26-136 SU and 66-92-4 ATS (42 percent). We might think a large spread — in this case +10 points in this matchup — provides a nice cushion for betting on a rookie quarterback, but that’s not the case. These teams scored just 17 PPG in those rookie starts.
A case can be made for taking either side, and if forced to pick —- probably JAX if less than -9.5 or BAL if more than 10.5. Locked in on 10, that looks more like a coin flip. So, I’ll pass on either side.
One expects that with an untested rookie QB, Baltimore’s game plan will play it conservative. That likely means RB Derrick Henry gets plenty of carries. I see his prop numbers at 15.5 carries and 74.5 yards. Trouble for Baltimore is, Henry does much better when his team has a passing game threat and a healthy offense that can take pressure off and sustain long drives. He lacks that threat this week, so I can’t go OVER on those props, though that’s going to attract prop money. I’d be careful with Henry-stuff this week, since his done poorly the last three games — with just 15 carries on average per game, and 52 YPG. Also remember, JAX fields a decent run defense, so be wary of assuming Henry gets enough carries and yards to break his projections.
Instead, I’ll wager on something counterintuitive. The rookie QB may not pass as much as normally, but we expect the Ravens will be trailing in parts of this game, especially later as indicated by the high spread. This does set up “trash” yards and stats that come cheaply in lopsided games. For this reason, WR Zay Flowers should be a very inviting target for out money. It helps that the Jags’ defense must respect RB Henry as a threat, leaving Flowers and other receivers as open targets.
Flowers is coming off a horrible game, one of his worst in years. Zero catches. That’s in glaring contrast to a terrific season otherwise by Flowers, with 40 catches and 608 yards. Even with a bad game in Week 8, Flowers still averages 86 YPG receiving. He’s not enjoyed reliable QBs throwing the ball this season, so the drop off might now be as severe as we think. That makes Flowers particularly attractive in this matchup. Again, the potential for “trash” time receiving yardage cannot be overstated enough on this prop.
Flowers O/U on receiving yardage is just 47.5 yards in this game. That’s a low total for a WR who averages nearly double that per game. He’s projected at 5 catches. I wouldn’t touch that prop, fearing Fagnano may not throw many passes. With a very healthy 15.5 YPC average, Flowers is a legit receiving target to bust for 48 yards on a single catch. So, there’s that, as well.
This will be my only wager on the game, though I also lean to Baltimore in the 4Q +2.5 points (per-game line). Those are interesting alt. spreads which take into account what’s expected in a game script. We’ve seen Jacksonville take its foot off the gas late in games this season when leading big, so if that happens the Jags might not score many points in the final frame. As I said, BAL +2.5 in the 4Q is a strong lean. I’ll stick with the prop for now, as a recorded wager.
Wager: Player Prop – BAL WR Flowers OVER 47.5 receiving yards (-115)
– CINCINNATI vs. ATLANTA [International Game/Early Start] Line: Bengals -3.5 O/U: 52.5
Neither team covered last week. However, the Bengals did win and at 5-2 are clearly the more consistent of the two. Playing on a neutral site (Madrid), I expected this spread to be -4 or higher. I’m betting Cincinnati, and laying the points. One interesting data point — in international games favorites are an impressive 39-23-1 (63 percent) against-the-spread. The theory is that in uncertain conditions (foreign travel, etc.) the superior teams rise to the occasion and/or exceed market expectation. The numbers bear this out.
I don’t like making “obvious” picks, though this matchup offers some very clear choices. I look for Cincinnati’s offensive success to continue this week, which translates into OVER on the Bengals’ team total and OVER on QB Joe Burrow’s passing yardage projection:
CIN OVER 27.5 — Bengals average 30 PPG. I’d like to catch a push on 27, but there’s still enough value to bet on this, so long as we get a win on 28. Cincinnati is rolling on offense lately, and faces a very average defense. Falcons have faced several weak offenses, and the Bengals might be the toughest test yet. One must also wonder what their prep will be like this week, after holding their previous opponent to 0 passing yards (zero!) in a driving rainstorm, but 350 yards on the ground, a thorough ass-kicking. Now, they face an elite passing opponent. ATL was shut out last week, even with their strong running attack, leading me to think their offensive problems may continue. That means Cincy will get plenty of chances to score and run up points.
BURROW OVER 270.5 PASSING YARDS — QB Burrow is enjoying a monster season. He’s averaging 302 YPG, while also leading the league in completion percentage (73 percent) and passing touchdowns (20). His long-pass completion percentage is tops in the NFL, indicating the Bengals will throw deep. Burrow is a solid MVP candidate right now. This doesn’t bode well for Atlanta, which has been burned with the deep ball.
Wagers: Full-Game Side – CINCINNATI -3 vs. Tampa Bay (-115) Full-Game Team Total – CINCINNATI OVER 27.5 (-115) Player Prop – CIN QB Burrow OVER 270.5 passing yards (-115)
– NOTE: If you enjoy these write-ups and they are useful, please click onto this link later in the week. My page here is updated regularly through Saturday mid-day, when most of my NFL picks are completed.
Jameson — Republicans win all key races and keep everything they now control (confession–I admit to kinda’ loving Jameson….this is the last thing I want to look at tonight, let alone touch). *see footnote below
Mouton Cadet by Baron Philippe de Rothschild: Sounds good on the surface, but very average. Democrats win House by small margin. Republicans maintain control of Senate. Like a ball game I bet on ending in a tie, and I get a push.
2007 Chateauneuf-Du-Pape — Good night, but not what it could have been for Democrats. Solid wine, but there’s better for the money.
1999 Chateau Canon la Gaffeliere — Saint-Emilion Grand Cru. Enough said. Democrats win both the House and Senate, and win a majority of Governor’s races. *I wanted to show the Gevrey-Chambertin (thanks Taki) but I drank his bottles years ago!
1987 Havana Club (the real thing) / 2017 Havana Club (knock off, but still good) — I only open this bottle I brought back from Ceausescu’s Romania on very special occasions. Chad H. gifted me the newer bottle, and I am waiting for an occasion to celebrate. This happens if Dems sweep, and also pick up SOUTH CAROLINA. Is South Carolina the new Georgia? I hope so. Toss in a bottle of Perrier-Jouet Grand Brut if somehow Democrats win MISSISSIPPI.
Macallan 12 — I can’t afford the Macallan 18, but I wouldn’t know the difference anyway. I need a reason to open this. Any reason. How about I just open it for the hell-uv-it? Any objections?
Here’s my HOLY GRAIL of wines — a 1961 OTTONEL (Romania) — Bought this in 1990 in Bucharest. Made during the Gheorghe Gheorghiu-Dej regime. It’s Marieta’s birth year, 1961. Paid decent money then, and now it’s priceless. We agree to open this up on out 50th anniversary. So, what would cause us to open this tonight?
Answer:
1. Democrats win House and Senate, will super majority.
2. Democrats win vast majority of state races — landslide!
3. Trump resigns in disgrace.
Who wants to come over and join me? I’m sticking that 1961 Ottonel on ice!
*If something worse happens, I’m going to the 7-11 to buy a bottle of Yellow Tail.
FOLLOW THE DISCUSSION HERE ON FACEBOOK (CLICK BELOW):
WHO’S GOT THE MOST AT STAKE IN THIS ELECTION ? ANSWER — POLLSTERS AND “EXPERTS”
This election is about more than just who wins, which party controls what, and the future of democracy. In fact, *nobody* has more at stake this go-around than political prognosticators.
They desperately need a win. They need to nail their predictions, this time. No more teasing. Stop with the hyperbole. Just get something right.
Political prognosticators ——- yeah, I’m talking about pollsters, research firms, party hacks, consultants, media personalities, prediction markets, and so-called “experts.”
Everyone who shares an opinion is under the microscope, especially if they’re getting paid and/or they have a public voice. You are getting PAID to voice an “expert” opinion? With that paycheck comes responsibility. You are on TV? With that exposure comes responsibility. You are raking millions in consulting fees? With that expertise comes responsibility. We expect accuracy, to the degree forecasts can be refined and perfected.
The list of fools and foolishness is long and deep. I could easily list and then bash most of the political talking heads for being dead wrong in recent elections. They weren’t wrong by an inch. They were off by a mile — or I should say *millions* of votes. Which now begs the question — why are they still on TV? Why are we still listening to them?
In the last elections, when Democratic Party establishment fossil James Carville repeatedly squawked in a jaw-dropping display of arrogance and overconfidence multiple times that he was — absolutely “certain” and “sure” and “expecting a blowout win” for Harris over Trump in the 2024 presidential election, that should have ENDED erased him from the media map. His credibility as an election “expert” and political sock muppet was buried long before, but that malady was a travesty. But hey look, he’s still out there gawking (and presumably getting paid by someone — go figure). Can you tell I dislike and disrespect James Carville?
As for pollsters and research firms, we’ve all seen the recent numbers and projections for 2026. Blue wave! Blue Tsunami! Are you sure? Someone may end up blue in the face. Not that Democrats won’t win many races and perhaps take control of the legislative branch. That does seem likely to anyone paying attention. Even Republicans acknowledge it will be a bad mid-term election for them. It’s just a question of — how bad
It will be interesting to see how the final vote tabulations compare with the latest polls and projections. I will say this: Whoever blows it this time should be out of the political prediction business completely. Finished. Done. Survey research firms and pollsters have had plenty of time and resources to recalibrate their methodologies that take into account how likely voters are polled. Using the famous pressure point…..YOU’VE GOT ONE JOB! DO IT, AND GET IT RIGHT.
Most Americans don’t trust polls or pollsters anymore. Blowing an occasional election is forgivable. But there have been way too many “Dewey Defeats Truman” 1948s lately. This is part of a much bigger problem where we’ve lost faith and trust in our institutions, and even dismiss the experts. Not just in politics, but all arenas. Science. Medicine. Economics. Sports. You name it. This is not healthy. In fact, cynicism is toxic. The “experts” desperately need a *W* on Tuesday.
I should note prediction markets will be tested, as well. The flow of money represents a concentration of global confidence. That because we can bet on these things from anywhere, and presumably people won’t put money down on something without some knowledge. When prediction markets move, the “wisdom of crowds” is voicing its opinion. Most people betting on politics in prediction markets are not laymen off the street. We assume they know more than general public opinion. But being smarter doesn’t make them infallible.
Indeed, everyone’s credibility is at stake here. Pollsters. Talking heads. Political analysts. Research firms. Survey companies. Software programs. Betting markets. Everybody.
Sure, this election is about our future. But it’s just as much a test of the credibility of those who measure public opinion and try to predict the future.
Note: This was written on Friday, the day after I voted in-person here in Nevada. On Saturday, my home was visited by two DHS agents. I posted about that incident in a video testimony of what happened. What follows here will deal exclusively with voting and my experience on the previous day.
My state, Nevada does an excellent job with in-person voting (I have never voted by mail). It’s accessible, quick, and easy. I also feel more confident in the process now having done it. Yesterday, we voted at the West Sahara Community Center. From the moment we drove into the parking lot until leaving, the entire process took 20 minutes.
We’ve voted in every election since 2004, and in most primaries. Nevada provides a wide window of calendar dates to vote — nearly three weeks long. All states should adopt a similar window of opportunity. In fact, broader extensions should be universal. Making voting difficult for registered voters is unconstitutional, yet it’s been an ugly practice since our nation was founded (intended to discriminate and disenfranchise–mostly minorities and poor). Keeping polls open for more than one day costs more, but if increased voter participation is the objective, then multiple days are mandatory.
Now, a few specific thoughts about this poll location and my experience:
1. Question: Do the hundreds of signs littering every access point around the voting station *really* change anyone’s opinion? I suppose these political signs are as much DEFENSIVE in nature as anything positive. If several candidates were NOT put up signs, that means fewer signs would then draw more attention. And, the worst thing for any candidate is to have ZERO name ID, while the opponent is a familiar name. If innumerable signs clutter up the space, no one looks or notices them. Just an off observation here about how absurd campaigning works and distorts reality.
2. Hustlers: I used to hate walking the gauntlet through the fleas who try to stick a pamphlet in your hand while walking from the car to the polling place. They used to nearly attack you, and it was usually some candidate’s rep you’ve never heard of (I guess that’s the idea). My local polling place did a really good job this year–first time I’ve seen this. They put up yellow police-line tape so voters can walk up the sidewalk without being badgered by hustlers. However, they do stand there on the opposite side of the police tape, and can be approached IF YOU want to engage them. Well done, Nevada (I assume this is a statewide rule which is enforced).
3. More about the Hustlers: I have mixed feeling about them. On one hand, I admire anyone’s volunteerism. It’s not easy standing around for hours trying to engage with strangers. People, sheesh! I get it. On the other hand, I dislike the intimidation factor. I’m pretty direct and have a teflon personality, but others who make that walk may not feel as comfortable when getting pitched and hustled by some dude pimping the Family Court candidate in District 21. Admittedly, I’ve gotten into arguments with some hustlers in the past who pimp Republicans (shocker–profanity has been hurled). The police line tape protects THEM as much as ME.
4. Check-In: Plenty of poll workers. Quick and easy. They ask your name, but most people show ID. This is a controversial issue right now (mandating voter ID). Most people just willingly volunteer their drivers license, and that makes verification much easier. I’m not sure what they do if or when someone shows up without identification, but that’s not a problem here (and it’s ridiculously overblown nationally, intended to stir up mistrust in the voting process). I was asked if I *also* received a mail-in ballot, and I answered YES. I was told NOT to mail that in (which would mean voting twice) and doing so would be a felony. I noticed everyone is told this, and it’s shown in writing when you sign the screen. Presumably, sophisticated system controls are in place to flag multi-voters. In the few cases they happen, it’s probably about equal and a cancel-out effect takes place (but that’s speculation).
5. The Voting Booth: Here’s where a surprise happened. If you’re older, you may remember clunky old grey metal machines with a curtain that closed behind you and levers. It was the size of a golf cart with wheels. Those voting machines were used for years. I never trusted those relics, because it seemed every state had malfunctions, accusations, and controversies. This time, our “voting booth” looked more like a grocery self-check out. That’s really as close a description as I can think of. You stand there in front of an oversized computer screen with large letters (thank you!). And it’s touch screen voting. What was interesting — you can talk to the person next to you (Marieta was voting right beside me). If you crane your neck, you can also see the other person’s screen. This does raise questions about “privacy,” but upon closer inspection when you deviate just a little from looking STRAIGHT into the screen, the image becomes fuzzy. So, this privacy protection is effective. However, some voters accustomed to curtains and some obvious signs of secrecy may question this “grocery check out” process.
6. The Print-Out: After entering the choices onscreen, next we print up our own completed ballot. There’s a printer right there! Then, you take a double-page ballot that’s the size of a sportsbook sheet and take it to another station. There, it’s scanned, then held. So, it appears there are THREE records of your vote: 1. computer 2. scanned copy 3. hard-copy paper ballot. This makes me trust the process much more, as a properly supervised vote audit would reveal the proper tabulation of votes. I’m not saying manipulation isn’t possible — but here in Nevada it would take some other means to rig three distinct voting records.
7. The Walk After: It’s funny to walk the gauntlet and return to your car. All the hustlers pay you NO attention whatsoever. It’s like you become INVISIBLE after voting. The deeper political symbolism of this is not lost on me. On this day, I did stop and talk to a Democratic Party volunteer. She was handing out a tout sheet with “recommendations” on all the races. Note there was a Republican Party volunteer doing this, as well, but I did not engage that person. I told her the tip sheet was very helpful and what she was doing was important because most voters (including me) didn’t know which were the most progressive candidates, especially in non-partisan races. The write-up and post that I shared from Nick C. was also useful, as I had my phone open and voted for those candidates, mostly judges. Another observation: A local DJ was spinning records in one tent. At another, a classical guitarist was playing, though it was hard to hear with the clash of music. I didn’t see who the DJ and guitarist were with — I wonder if music sways any votes? (dubious dirty-tricks idea–set up a station and then play the most OBNOXIOUS music and then have the banner of the opposing candidate–“screw that person, I’m not voting for them!”)
In summation, this was a pleasant, educational, and satisfying experience. However, I don’t know if this us typical — nationally. Perhaps other states have much more antiquidated systems. Feel free to comment. I’ll post more in the next few days. Thanks for reading.
— ND
(This is a stock photo above–from UNR’s website. I’m not sure of photography is allowed at polling places, so I didn’t take any pictures.)
The United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) knocked on my front door on this Saturday morning, and tried to intimidate and question my family. Here’s the story of what happened….
On Saturday morning, three days before the election, two DHS agents visited my home. I discussed this in another thread, with a video describing what happened.
Since I’ve been accused of *lying* about this or fabricating or making up the entire incident, I will provide proof here and now of the encounter.
I offered those who questioned my honesty a prospective bet of $10,000. Put your money where your mouth is. So far, no takers. Just talkers.
This is the short video showing when they knocked on my front door taken with the Ring camera. You can also hear the audio, which captures the first part of our conversation.
I’m closing the comments on this thread as the discussion is taking place in the other Facebook post I put up yesterday. This is provided just for evidence purposes.
We have an international satellite inside our home that gets live television feeds from Europe. We’ve had this dish for 20 years, mostly for Marieta’s mother (she speaks Romanian, and now has Alzheimers — the TV in her room helps maintain a “conversation”).
I see Romanian news coverage almost every day. Something terrific on these TVR Internationalbroadcasts struck me and needs to be shared. It should be copied here, and become a regular feature. I wish American news networks would copycat this.
The daily feature is called “BREAKING FAKE NEWS.”
Huh? What? No, this isn’t a parody or a comedy show. This is on the main national news station.
Apparently, Romanian media and culture is just as infected with lies, distortions, memes, and AI-generated slop as here, or anywhere else. National dialogue on important issues gets polluted. It becomes nearly impossible for regular citizens to decipher between fact and fiction. THIS IS A HUGE PROBLEM!
TVR International examines the most egregious “fake” outrage topic of the day and then deconstructs it with actual data, facts, historical records, and expert testimony. Runs about 10 minutes long. The “FAKE” topic is always something plucked straight off social media. Sometimes, they take on popular myths widely believed as true, which are demonstrably false. On this particular day (Friday) TVR showed the now widespread lie that “foreigners” are causing all the problems in France with protests and riots. But they pick a different topic every day, from all parts of the world, and it’s fantastic! Sometimes they go after Trump. Other days, it’s Putin. And Romanians have their own troll factories and sludge sweatshops that gum up our sense of reality. Sadly, Romania has become one of the hubs of a global disinformation network — so it’s good to see the nation’s most watched TV news network exposing their lies.
Sometimes, knowing what ISN’T true can be just as essential as knowing what IS true.
Gee, we sure could use a “BREAKING FAKE NEWS” segment here in the USA. There’s no shortage of fake news that desperately needs to be exposed. We should also expose the vile perpetrators of these lies. They should be known and shamed publicly, though I realize lying has become both entertainment and sport, with no consequences.
I took this photo above of TVR International’s “BREAKING FAKE NEWS” (a great title with a double meaning) this morning….
2026-27 NFL SEASON: WEEK 8 – ANALYSIS AND PICKS 2026-27 NFL BETTING RECORD: WINS — 59 LOSSES — 50 PUSH — 2 NET WIN/LOSS — – $25. LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 9-5-1 (+ $365) STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000. CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,975.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
To read the FULL REPORT, with a write-up and picks on the entire schedule of games this week, CLICK the link below (note that the page is updated regularly between now and mid-day Saturday with more games and content — typically, I end up posting 15-20 bets per week:
FINAL LIST OF WEEK 8 WAGERS: [For those who just want the picks]
Full-Game Total: OVER 47 points–both teams combined (-110)…L First Quarter Total: OVER 9.5 points–both teams combined (-115)…L Player Prop: GB WR Watson OVER 4.5 receptions (-115)…W Player Prop: DET RB Gibbs UNDER 88.5 rushing yards (-115) Player Prop: NYJ QB Smith OVER 218.5 passing yards (-115) Player Prop: LV QB Cousins OVER 239.5 passing yards (-110) Full-Game Team Total: Dallas UNDER 31.5 points (-115) Full-Game Side: TAMPA BAY -2.5 (-110) vs. Atlanta Player Prop: ATL QB Penix UNDER 231.5 passing yards (-115) Player Prop: TB QB Mayfield UNDER 217.5 passing yards (-115) Player Prop: TEN QB UNDER 194.5 passing yards (-115) First-Half Total: PHI-WAS OVER 19.5 (-130) combined both teams scoring Player Prop: ARZ TE McBride OVER 73.5 receiving yards (-115) Full-Game Side: CLEVELAND +3.5 vs. Pittsburgh (-110) Player Prop: LAC RB Mitchell OVEr 1.5 receptions (even) Full-Game Team Total: New England OVER 26 points (-110) Player Prop: WAS WR Diggs OVER 4.5 receptions (+125)
WEEK 8 ANALYSIS AND PICKS
CAROLINA at GREEN BAY (TNF) Line: Packers -3.5 O/U: 47
Did I really read this correctly? Carolina is on a monster tear – both on the money line and against-the-spread when they’re coming off a loss. And when the Panthers are coming off both a SU loss and ATS non-cover, their next-game record is phenomenal.
I read some subset of data that Carolina either wins or has covered 15 in a row, dating back to mid-2024. Those results are with the same coaching staff and QB/skill players, so data here remains relevant. I tracked this myself and it looks like the Panthers have gone 13-2 ATS after a loss, as best I can tell. This is a long-winded way of saying Carolina has been an outstanding team to bet on coming off a loss in recent years. Note the Panthers got demolished last week at home hosting Tampa Bay. It was a humiliation. Let’s pay attention to teams that rebound well, and this is one of those spots for them. Carolina plus 3.5 is very tempting.
The total on this mid-week game dropped a full point from 48 down to 47. One Reason: Carolina’s defense has looked horrendous at times this season, maybe the worst in the league against the run. Fortunately for them this week, they face a one-dimensional offense that’s also been inconsistent. It would be hard for me to bet the UNDER given what I’ve seen, but capturing the *47* as a key number is helpful if you’re considering a wager on the OVER. I’ll be taking the OVER in this game.
I like two props, plus a wager on the full-game total:
OVER 47 – First, I see two offenses that aren’t afraid to throw the ball. CAR QB Bryce Young averages 38 pass attempts per game and ranks second among NFL QBs in yards per game (285 YPG on average). He’ll face a mid-level pass defense (ranked 13th in yards allowed). As for GB QB Jordan Love, he’s expected to throw early and often. The Packers’ rushing attack is horrific, ranked dead last at just 60 YPG. That’s 15 yards per game lower than the second worst rushing team. Yuck! Even though the Packers are up against a really bad run defense this week (Panthers are the NFL’s worst defense, averaging 5.1 YPC!), Love should still throw plenty of passes. All this passing should be very good for the OVER. And, catching the 47 is key in totals betting, which makes this quite playable.
1Q OVER 9.5 – First-quarter totals can be tricky. Sometimes, they’re sucker plays. Why? A couple of punts, and the UNDERs usually cash. The dynamics do indicate more passing in this matchup, meaning more possible clock stoppage. Capturing a win on 10 is essential here. We also see lots of mistakes from both of these teams, so a turnover wouldn’t be out of the question. I’ll play both teams to combine for 10 points or more in the opening frame.
GB WR WATSON OVER 4.5 CATCHES – Given that Green Bay can’t run the ball at all, that means the WR duo of Christian Watson and Matt Golden get plenty of targets. Golden has been an absolute beast this season, targeted 67 times in 7 games. He’s caught 6 passes in each of the past three games. However, in this short week, go-to Golden is listed as “questionable” (this is a Wed. afternoon report). He didn’t practice, and so Golden might not see as much action in this game. That shifts more possible targets on the other side over to Watson, who’s stat-line isn’t as impressive, but he’s still seeing plenty of passes. Even with Golden getting 12 targets in each of the past two games, his counterpart Watson got 8 throws in each of the past three weeks. If Golden is sidelined, Watson’s stock rises substantially. Even with Golden possibly starting, that could command more coverage from a really bad defense, leaving Watson open to catch passes. We need Watson to catch 5+ passes to cash this ticket. Assuming the Packers’ run misery continues and Golden is questionable, that spells a possible good night for Watson.
Wagers: Full-Game Total: OVER 47 points–both teams combined (-110) First Quarter Total: OVER 9.5 points–both teams combined (-115) Player Prop: GB WR Watson OVER 4.5 receptions (-115)
Milwaukee is currently up 3-0 in the baseball World Series. Game 4 plays tonight, and the Brewers can sweep it and win their first championship. No team has ever come back to win a World Series after falling behind 0-3. This disparity has happened 25 times before, and all 25 leading teams won. In fact, 21 of them won Game 4 and swept. Things don’t look good for Tampa Bay.
