Bernie Sanders Supporters — What’s Next?
The time has come for Bernie Sanders to take a final bow. He should graciously exit the 2016 presidential race and end his campaign — the sooner, the better.
Given his glaring defeat yesterday in Arizona (losing by 16 percentage points), following five straight losses just a week earlier when he was trounced by 14 points in Ohio and lost by a whopping 31 points in Florida, there’s no path to the Democratic nomination for Sanders. Obstacles have bricked into an impasse.
Yes, the upcoming slate of state primaries and caucuses is far more favorable to Sanders in terms of voter demographics. He’ll win a number of moral victories — maybe even pull off a surprise or two. Trouble is, there simply aren’t enough states remaining on the campaign trail like Vermont and Idaho, which were won by double-digit margins. Even New York and California are now projected as longshots for Sanders.
Although such an announcement would be unexpected, perhaps even shocking to many, such an selfless act would be widely construed by supporters and observers alike as practical, altruistic, and even courageous. Those are the unique qualities we’ve come to expect from Sanders as someone who levels with us at all times and tells the truth. We’ve consistently looked up to Sanders and admired him for his honesty. That sincerity also requires us to acknowledge an unpleasant political fact. He can’t and won’t win. Bernie’s “revolution” has certainly begun and will continue to roar ahead, but we must prepare ourselves to fight on a better day and not reduce ourselves to political martyrdom.
Prolonging his campaign and staying in the race much further will be increasingly perceived as impractical, mercenary, and ultimately self-defeating. Speaking to diminishing crowds at campaign rallies the rest of the way could even be harmful, both personally to Sanders and potentially damaging to his message and principles. With nearly all media attention turning and now focusing on what appears to be the inevitable Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump showdown so many were predicting all along, Sanders’ stubbornness could become a negative. The longer he campaigns and appears unwilling to accept fate, means that he will gradually fade and ultimately be ignored. Obscurity is a political death sentence. He risks turning into the worst caricature of what some of his critics have charged all along, morphing into the crazy man out marching up and down the sidewalk street corner, handing out flyers while wearing a sandwich board. No one wants to see that happen, not even his opponents.
Given that Sanders can’t possibly win the Democratic nomination in light of the widening disparity of party delegates currently pledged to his opponent, he must step down and do the right thing. Sure, he entered this presidential poker game playing against a stacked deck and then was dealt some really bad cards. Winning the nomination versus what amounts to party hacks and political mechanics making the rules made him a dark horse candidate from the very start. It was no accident that the early primaries were front-loaded with southern pro-Hillary Clinton states, thus creating a misleading aura of invincibility. Nothing was left to chance. The party’s secret ace in the hole up their sleeve was always playing the super-delegates wild card, prepared to push a floundering Hillary Clinton over the delegate-count finish line, if need be. Given the formidable forces he was up against, it’s remarkable that he’s come this far and made such an indelible impact on the political process. Accordingly, Sanders and the progressive agenda he champions will be far better served in the long run if he accepts these election results gracefully (as difficult as that may be in light of blatant cronyism), yet continues to speak out publicly against establishment politics and for comprehensive campaign reform. He will be perfectly positioned to assume his rightful place as a keynote speaker at this summer’s Democratic National Convention where he would be cheered as a unifier. His voice, not Hillary Clinton’s, will be the conscious of true liberals.
Although he’s 74, Sanders still has a bight political future ahead. He will continue to be a viable national figure and movement spokesman for as long as another decade, perhaps. Once he returns to his daily duties as a respected member of the U.S. Senate, he’s virtually assured of a significantly higher public profile in the months and years ahead. Sen. Sanders will enjoy unprecedented media attention and fresh new opportunities to advance liberal initiatives in a way that he’s never been noticed before. He could even morph into a septuagenarian rock star, willing and able to use his widespread popularity to move legislative issues forward which might have been unthinkable a decade earlier, particularly if Democrats regain control of the Senate next year. That could very well happen, especially if there’s a reverse coattail effect which turns out in strong opposition to Donald Trump. Yes, Sanders can and should remain as one of the most powerful political figures in the country, for years.
Should Sanders pursue this course of action and seize the torch as the nation’s most trusted and well-liked high-profile liberal, he’ll continue to influence the agenda, winning over millions of young people to the cause. This is where his legacy is most invested. Twentysomethings have not only proven themselves as his most enthusiastic supporters, but they are primed to become the next political generation destined to implement the progressive agenda of revolution Sanders has advanced and made into a viable issue — whether it’s universal health care, wealth disparity, climate change, or a host of other critical issues.
Sanders has made being a liberal acceptable once again, following decades of Democratic phonies who scattered and ran from the leftist tag like traitors, seeking shelter within inner-Beltway culture as do-nothing moderates. Boosted by grass-roots support and more small campaign contributions than any candidate in presidential history, Sanders is now the undisputed voice of the modern progressive movement — not Diane Feinstein, not Harry Reid, and certainly not Nancy Pelosi. In this current anti-establishment climate, old guard politicians are perceived as the problem, and not the solution. The Feinsteins, Reids, and Pelosis — each seems terribly dated and their political careers are soon ready to expire, hopefully. The quicker they retire, the better for the movement. More direct to the point — they’re embarrassing. His likability factor higher than any candidate in the race, Sanders has proven his political chops, strapping on the brass knuckles and taking on the bastard banks, big pharma, the lobbyists, the system, and the rest of the cretins who’s unfathomable crimes against society have generated a mass swelling of bi-partisan political backlash not seen since the trust-busting era of Teddy Roosevelt more than a century ago.
Admitting defeat is never easy. Yet, Sanders is not a defeated candidate. To the contrary, for the first time, he’s become a legitimate national political figure. Sanders can take tremendous pride, not so much in winning the election, but at least in covering the proverbial spread and shattering the subterranean expectations for his candidacy initially. No one — not the news media, not the Democrats, not Hillary Clinton, perhaps not even the most loyal Sanders devotees — took his presidential campaign seriously when he first announced that he’d run as a Democrat nearly a year ago. The prevailing viewpoint was, there was no way that democratic socialism would appeal to the mainstream electorate. Now many months later, with Sanders hammering home leftist ideology for months, the presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton has all but turned into Sanders’ progressive clone parroting the same political manifesto. We all know she’ll abandon our cause for political expediency, but getting her over to our side, albeit temporarily, stands as a testament to Sanders’ appeal and his powerful message.
So, what’s next for those of us who have supported Sanders? Call us his political disciples. Sanders has shattered a wall that many thought was thought to be impenetrable. It’s now up to us to bridge the divide and build upon the solid foundation Sanders has set forth for other dozens, if not hundreds, if not thousands of political candidates and activists at all levels, in every sector of society. From the start, Sanders warned us that he wasn’t a Leftist messiah. He couldn’t win alone. He needed us just as much as we needed him. And so, we won’t let him down. Our fight continues.
All the important issues Sanders spoke about with such passion and sincerity during the presidential campaign will continue to percolate. It’s incumbent upon us now, not to surrender, nor withdraw. Not now. Not ever. Instead, once Sanders suspends his presidential bid, as he surely will do at some point, we must prepare ourselves ready to grab the torch he lit with such a fire, and carry it forward for the next national progressive movement, when it comes. Be assured, it will come.
Bernie Sanders presidential campaign was not an end. It was a beginning.
Some revolutions take longer than others.
Note: Markos Moulitsas, writing in The Hill, pointed out Sanders has no path to the nomination [READ MORE HERE].
Nolan,
I am a fellow Bernie Sanders supporter, I admire your support of Sanders, but I couldn’t disagree with you more and am frankly shocked to see this post now of all times. It’s this defeatism that helps kill any remaining chance we have.
He has nothing to lose by staying in the race, especially now. And if he does, the things you mention far outweigh the positives. Many Hillary supporters even agree with this (granted as long as he keeps attacks to a minimum).
There are a number of reasons for this:
1) The calendar got REALLY good for him. It was stacked against him with all Southern states in the first half. The second half is as good for him as the first half was for Hillary. He is likely going to win every state from now until April 19th at least. He will continue to gain delegates. If he loses New York by any material amount, I will be right there with you.
2) He still has a chance to win! If you disagree, pound the Predicit marketplace, which currently has Hillary at 88%.
3) Many/most of the volunteers that have funded his campaign want him to continue to preach the message.
4) He arguably deflects criticism away from Hillary while he is still competitive, which he is!
5) You cite Arizona as a reason for him to get out. How about the large amount of voter suppression that went on yesterday? The internal numbers of the campaign show Bernie should have been A LOT closer. Likely still a loss, but possibly a lot different narrative with a 0%-5% loss. Lets not forget about the 80/20 win he had in Utah and Idaho. We likely will see more of these types of wins until March 19th.
6) Even if its just lots of white people voting and he has no chance to gain minorities, the rest of us want to vote for Bernie
This is unquestionably an uphill battle, why get out when you still got a chance?
Nolan Replies:
Craig, excellent points. Permit me to respond to each one…1-6.
1. “The calendar got REALLY good for him….He is likely going to win every state from now until April 19th at least. He will continue to gain delegates. If he loses New York by any material amount, I will be right there with you.”
REPLY: As the Daily Kos article points out, Sanders must win the remaining states by a ridiculously large margin. If NY and CA were Idaho, sure, there’s a chance. But that still gives Clinton the nomination assuming the DNC’s super-delegates show up. I considered waiting until NY on April 19th, and agree that would be the latest date he should consider staying in the race (assuming he wins that by at least 10 points). However, I think WI is critical for Sanders, on Apr. 5. He MUST win that state big, which I don’t think will happen based on what we saw in IL, OH, and MO. Last thing I want to see if Sanders drawing 4,000 people in 17,000 seat arenas and I see that happening in the near future.
2. He still has a chance to win! If you disagree, pound the Predicit marketplace, which currently has Hillary at 88%.
REPLY: I agree that betting markets are best predictors. However, I see no path for Sanders given the superdelgates and DNC establishment standing in the way. Again, please read the article link which spells out of the best and worst cases scenarios.
3. Many/most of the volunteers that have funded his campaign want him to continue to preach the message.
REPLY: No argument here. That’s typical with any presidential campaign. Even Rubio, Carson, and Bush had their loyalists in the final days. Doesn’t change reality, however. I’m not worried about their wishes. I’m going after the mainstream and I don’t want to see Sanders turn into a Ben Carson-like demagogue.
4. He arguably deflects criticism away from Hillary while he is still competitive, which he is!
REPLY: She better be ready for an onslaught. Things are going to get ugly.
5. You cite Arizona as a reason for him to get out. How about the large amount of voter suppression that went on yesterday? The internal numbers of the campaign show Bernie should have been A LOT closer. Likely still a loss, but possibly a lot different narrative with a 0%-5% loss. Lets not forget about the 80/20 win he had in Utah and Idaho. We likely will see more of these types of wins until March 19th.
REPLY: Sanders should have won AZ. Had he won, I wouldn’t have posted this article. But losing an overwhelmingly White-population state with some affluence, that has some demographics similar to NV where he lost by just 5 points (even with Clinton’s union support), shows a marked decline. That was a last straw for me.
6. Even if its just lots of white people voting and he has no chance to gain minorities, the rest of us want to vote for Bernie
REPLY: I appreciate this and do feel bad for the many Sanders supporters in later primary states who get to cast votes after all the good stuff has been raided from the buffet table. I agree this is compelling reason for Sanders to go a bit further. But he must also not fall off the cliff and turn into the pathetic. I simply cannot deal with that happening, and if it does, he risks losing what tremendous gains were made during this election cycle.
Thank you for posting. Interesting discussion.
— Nolan
Thanks for the thoughtful reply, Nolan.
“As the Daily Kos article points out, Sanders must win the remaining states by a ridiculously large margin. If NY and CA were Idaho, sure, there’s a chance. But that still gives Clinton the nomination assuming the DNC’s super-delegates show up. I considered waiting until NY on April 19th, and agree that would be the latest date he should consider staying in the race (assuming he wins that by at least 10 points). However, I think WI is critical for Sanders, on Apr. 5. He MUST win that state big, which I don’t think will happen based on what we saw in IL, OH, and MO. Last thing I want to see if Sanders drawing 4,000 people in 17,000 seat arenas and I see that happening in the near future.”
He must win the remaining states by an average of 60/40. Yes, this is a lot and doesn’t count super delegates. But he did win Utah and Idaho by 80/20. I may be a Sanders homer but not enough where I expect anywhere near that for the bigger states but I feel there is a chance Sanders can do a 60/40 average with time. As you well know, he started out at single digits in the polls and he’s been on upward trajectory since, admittedly with some bumps along the way.
Who knows what can happen in a month until New York? But we lose for sure by dropping out. He is going to have momentum and could cut into the delegate lead by 25% until then (watch Washington on Saturday!). Regarding New York, I can tell you the campaign and volunteers are scrambling like mad to get people registered to vote. If anything, his undoing at this point will be the closed primaries that require people to register weeks or months before the election.
Regarding superdelegates as well, I’d love to see the fallout from supers deciding the election in a scenario when Sanders ends up winning 20 or so out of the last 25 states.
Again, I’m not talking about something that is likely to happen. But we have a chip and a chair, and I think that now is not the time to give up on a once-in-a-generation candidate.
I agree that Wisconsin is absolutely critical, but I look at that state as more like Minnesota. Hell, even Michigan but probably somewhere in between. It’s a toss-up at this point, according to the betting markets.
He’s smart enough with optics not to speak to 4k in a 17k seater. But I will mention he is set to have a rally at Safeco Field on Friday. We’ll see how that turns out. 🙂
Bottom line, this is not a man that goes down fighting and I think you know as well as anybody people LOVE this guy with passion that is not like any of the 2016 candidates (except Trump for different reasons and Obama in 2008). His problem is that many people still don’t really know who he is.
Regarding Arizona, it’s a state with a closed primary that had something like 1/2 or more vote early, which favors Hillary (older voters, many who casted their ballots before they even heard of Sanders). Arizona was a complete disaster at the polls yesterday and clearly negatively affected Sanders. It was likely much closer than the official result suggested. If it was actually 15%-20%, I would agree with a lot of what you said about his chances, but based on what I have read about yesterday, it wasn’t. Unfortunately, we will never know.
I agree with much of what npc said as well (I didn’t mention them because they are more longer shot scenarios imo). I suspect that he will tone down his critique of Hillary when(if!) he loses Wisconsin or New York. In the meantime, he has every right to point out the Hillary hypocrisies (and he wouldnt be Bernie if he didn’t).
But Hillary got her easy states, now it’s time for Bernie to get his. Given the calendar, bowing out after a New York loss or later, could very likely put Bernie even in a higher standing than he is today. So he loses virtually nothing by staying in until at least then imo.
I don’t blame you too much for him wanting to get out, but just know it only emboldens those of us who want to take that 10% chance we have like our life depends on it. 😉
Hmmm. I disagree with you, Nolan, but for very different reasons than the previous poster. I agree that Mr. Sanders does not have a realistic chance to hit the delegate total necessary to receive the nomination, but that’s not the only reason to stay in the campaign. I believe he should remain in the race for the following reasons:
1) Mrs. Clinton is not a young person. While she is unlikely to suffer a serious health problem between now and the convention, that’s not an impossibility. In the unlikely (and tragic) event that this would happen, it would be better if Mr. Sanders had not wound down his campaign.
2) While I believe the right’s insistence on Mrs. Clinton’s criminality is hysterical, nobody can dismiss the possibility entirely that something will come up, and if so, Mr. Sanders should be ready.
3) It benefits the causes Bernie believes in for him to continue to preach large portions of his stump speech. He still has money, he still has audiences that want to hear it, he should continue to do so.
4) Eight years ago, after President Obama was in a similar spot to where Mrs. Clinton is now, and she chose not to drop out of the race. I believe this is the main reason why Mrs. Clinton has not been hyper-critical of Mr. Sanders remaining in the race. I believe it was okay for her to remain in the race eight years ago, and for the same reasons it’s okay for him to remain in the race now.
However, if it were up to me, while I’d advise Mr. Sanders to continue to campaign, I’d also advise him to significantly change the tone of his campaign. I’d pivot the Bernie vs. Hillary contrasts to Democrats vs. Republicans. I’d spend more time going after Trump, the Republicans in Congress, and the implications of the Supreme Court battle. I think it’s okay for him to point out some of the contrasts between him and Mrs. Clinton, but I’d recommend spending a lot more time talking about how important it is to flip the Senate and how dire a Trump Presidency would be. He can continue to convince the base that there is still a lot of work that needs to be done on health care, campaign finance reform, and banking regulation. Again, as long as people continue to show up, he can push the consensus among left leaning voters more toward his values, and I see no reason for him *not* to do this, as long as it doesn’t hurt his party’s chances in November. Also, gaining more delegates gets him more clout at the convention, which doesn’t hurt his causes.
Of course, once he gets to the convention, he will, of course, give the requisite prime time speech talking about how important his issues are for all Democratic voters, but that while he disagrees sharply with Mrs. Clinton on a large number of issues, there’s no doubt that she’d be orders of magnitude better than Trump, or Cruz, or Kasich, or Ryan, or Romney, or the ghost of Spiro Agnew or whomever the Republicans finally decide to run against him, and that his supporters should give a full commitment to her campaign from there on out, and that he enthusiastically gives his full-throated support.
In the mean time, I don’t think he does his cause, his brand, or his party any harm to continue run a campaign where he urges his supporters to vote broadly for his party and gets out the messages he cares deeply about while remaining in “game shape” operating under an active campaign in the off chance that some unlikely event occurs.
Of course, if the crowds and the money dries up, and/or he stops being competitive in any states, he might be better off dropping out, but until that time, I don’t see any reason why he shouldn’t keep going. It seems to me that he still has support to do so. But, his goals and his message should shift to something more appropriate to the current situation.
It would be nice to see BURNSTER back in his home on Stannard Mt. with time to reflect on the many aspects of his background that he overstated – such as Union Picket Lines & Civil Rights agitation, which I think cost him much of the African/American vote, plus never giving credit to those from his ideas were drawn, such a Bill McKibben at Middlebury College for his HUGE organization of college students supporting the Climate Change movement (best since the Vietnam Moritorium in 1968) & Elizabeth Warren, who 1st saw clearly the 1% & their lock on Political Power along w/ the disasterous consequences for America of their greed- it was she who served as the Prophet of Capitalism in the way Karl Marx did for the 19th Century Robber Barons.
By being always only about THE BURN he became tedious.
BTW The neighbors say the place on Stannard Mt. badly needs his Tidying up & settling accounts with a number of neighbors. And even tho the $100,000 Jane collected as she bailed from Burl. C was not called illegal, it was clearly a Conflict of Interest given that she was partner to the guy who can rain money. Their combined income of $260,000 also knocks them out of the “we are with you in poverty” line, for in Vermont they are Rich. Still, thanks for it all
Sanders is winning a large state, Washington by 50%. He can win the nomination, and makes a compelling argument to beat Trump in the General. He polls better nationally, and the states Clinton is strong in are republican states.
Wow, this explains a lot. You fucking berntard… I’m laughing my ass off now at the shitstorm you created with women in poker. Supporting a clueless, let’s give away free shit, inept moron like Sanders, I guess you get what you deserve…