An NBA Playoff Betting Angle
One of the most reliable betting angles in pro sports happens during the first round of the NBA playoffs. Teams that are down 0-2 (games) and returning to their home court for Game 3 are automatic bets whenever you see the situation. This means identifying the teams that lost the first two games of a playoff series (both on the road), and then bet on them to win and/or cover the spread in the third game. Note the NBA plays a 2-2-1-1-1 format, which means Game 3 is always a change of venue.
Why are these 0-2 teams such strong bets? One theory is that since no NBA team has ever overcome an 0-3 deficit to win a seven-game series, the sense of urgency teams feel when down and now extra motivated means they play with more intensity. Add the home crowd often sparking a stronger effort on many occasions and familiar surroundings. Let’s also remember that the 0-2 team is a playoff contender, so they clearly have the talent to win any given night. Conversely, the opponent that’s up 2-0 in the playoffs can sometimes be described as “fat and happy.” That’s a gambling term used to mean the team who’s ahead doesn’t feel the same urgency and motivation.
So, how have the 0-2 teams performed historically in Game 3? The results are shockingly good. Since 2005, teams down 0-2 and playing Game 3 at home are 80-38-2 ATS (68 percent covers!). More recently, since 2016 this trend is 29-6 ATS, hitting a whopping 83 percent of situations (Source: Action Network)! You won’t find many betting angles with this many trials hitting those win percentages.
Right now, five of the eight first-round series include 0-2 teams returning home (games to be played on Thursday and Friday nights). That means taking:
ORLANDO, PHILADELPHIA, LA LAKERS, PHOENIX and NEW ORLEANS.
Incredibly, I don’t sense the lines have adjusted much (if at all) to this solid angle and the betting public seems to be unaware of it. Otherwise, we’d see these numbers skewed a bit more toward the home teams.
This is a classic case of fading recent perceptions and market overreactions, and getting line value with the more motivated teams.
I put in these bets late this afternoon.
[Note that prior results are never a guarantee of future rewards and returns.]
