Breaking the Iran Nuclear Agreement Created This Mess

Signed in 2015 by Iran and several world powers including the United States, the JCPOA placed significant restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program and external military actions in exchange for sanctions relief.

Then in 2018, the Trump Administration withdrew the United States from the deal. Iran began ignoring limitations on its nuclear program a year later and ramped up it’s actions throughout the Middle East.

When I was a student at the Foreign Service Institute many years ago, I recall an etching carved into the white marble walled corridors of the school that trained America’s diplomats. The saying was, “The only certainty in the world is uncertainty.”

That’s a good motto for international diplomacy. In fact, it’s a good motto for almost everything happening in our lives. In a world that’s perpetually dangerous and unpredictable, optimization requires constant flexibility and nuance. Things change. We need agility and objectivity.

Diplomacy is often misunderstood. It’s underrated as an instrument of foreign policy, particularly by those who have never served overseas representing the United States. Unfortunately, many isolationist Americans view diplomacy as capitulation–even surrender.

To the contrary. If we’ve learned anything as fact in the past 60 years, it’s that diplomacy — which leads to trade deals, agreements, and treaties — are essential. Invasions, occupations, and military actions do not work. They rarely fulfill their policy objectives. Recall the disastrous lessons of the Vietnam War, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Hundreds of thousands of lives lost on both sides. Trillions in national treasury wasted. Militarists weren’t just proven wrong — they ruined an incalculable number of lives. Diplomacy, while imperfect and not without risks of its own, might have averted these disasters, or at least reduced them significantly.

I was reminded of these historical realities while pondering the mess in the Middle East, and particularly the ongoing conflict with Iran. To be clear, Iran’s government is an appalling regime. But let’s also acknowledge the world is filled with appalling regimes — North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and others — and we make deals and talk to them all the time. Perhaps the FSI should etch another saying into the marble walls, this one from The Godfather, which goes: “Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer.” We need to keep lines of communication open at all times. When countries stop talking, bad things happen.

The roots of the Middle East mess are deep and branch in many directions. There’s lots of blame to go around. But let’s be clear about what triggered Iran’s recent rise as a danger to peace and stability.

When the United States broke away from the Iran nuclear agreement that had been signed in 2015, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), that set off a catastrophic course of events that spiraled steadily downward and pushed Iran into an even more hostile, intractable position in an already fragile region. By nixing an international agreement, the U.S. blew any chance at steps towards peace in the Middle East, especially as it pertains to Iran’s role. which was/is vital.

In 2018, the Trump Administration prodded by right-wing extremists here in the U.S. and the rabid rhetoric of Israel’s Netanyahu-led government withdrew from the international agreement. Note that all international agencies said Iran was following the agreement towards demilitarization. Accordingly, moderates inside Iran lost their influence. These Iranian moderates were essential towards any possible regime change. And so, fanatical hardliners assumed control of the government and foreign policy, and hostilities ramped up again —– and now here we are facing disaster. Oh, and you can be sure Iran has resumed its nuclear weapons development. This is precisely what happens when extremists dictate foreign policy on both sides of a conflict, and diplomacy is abandoned.

Those who are now calling for attacks on Iran, or regime change, or other manifestations of militarism might try to learn from history, though they repeat the same preposterous mistakes over and over again. Sanctions do not work. International isolation doesn’t just fail most of the time, it’s also makes hostile regimes even more dangerous. Attack Iran? Really? Hasn’t Afghanistan and Iraq taught us anything?

We had a unique chance, a once-in-a-generation opportunity to change things for the good back a few years ago. But we let extremists take over and they have led us to the brink of another war. Why do we keep listening to them when they’ve failed us so many times before? I’m baffled by this stupidity. And, I’m angered by it. But I do feel better sharing these concerns by writing about them.

This is what happens when diplomacy fails. Sadly, we all end up paying a costly price, years and even generations later.