Note: In a previous report, I listed a betting angle that was not properly been fact-checked. I have since removed this inaccurate text. I regret not checking the numbers before publishing them here and will strive to verify the accuracy of all numbers in the future.
************************************************
2019 NFL WAGERING RECORD
Wins — Losses — Pushes 5 — 9 — 1
Starting Bankroll: 10,000
Current Bankroll: 8,950.
Best Bets: 1 — 0 — 0 (+$400)
Last Week’s Results: – $1,050.
*************************************************
Jacksonville @ Tennessee
Tennessee by 7.5
Total — 42
Comments: JAX got a false win last week where they were badly outgained and mostly outplayed, but won outright as 8-point underdogs. Now, they go on the road and play a better opponent, which likely won’t take them lightly. TEN played poorly in the MNF opener at DEN last week, and was lucky to win the game with a late FG. But had TEN’s kicker done his job (he missed three FGs and an XP), let’s remember TEN would have won that game by double-digits. The mark of a good team is when it plays below its capability and still wins. That applies to TEN here, which will now face a much softer defense. TEN should roll here also based on history — last two years Jaguars are just 4-8-1 ATS as a road underdog. JAX also lost their last six visits to Nashville, with three of their last four losses here by 19+ points. TEN should play a better game this week, while outclassed JAX folds mid-game and is content to go to 1-1. Also lean OVER in this game, as TEN might roll up the score after a poor offensive showing in Week 1. No official play for me in this game, but my lean is to TEN and OVER.
Detroit @ Green Bay
Green Bay by 6
Total — 50
Comments: GB looks easy here, laying less than a touchdown. But DET has played GB tough in recent years. Packers won both games in the series last season by a total of 4 points, and the Lions were really banged up then. In fact, DET has beat GB 3 of the last 5 at Lambeau Field, so that’s going to keep me off the favorite. DET is tempting. They’ve crumbled late in games under Patricia, but do seem to come into games well prepared, evidence by a 23-6 fourth-quarter lead last week (which they squandered). DET comes in with more urgency here, and I suspect they’ll keep this close for a while. DET getting+3.5 will be my official pick here, although I’m fearful of GB’s potent offensive attack which decimated MIN last week. DET does have enough weapons to stay in the game, and it’s hard to argue with their impressive results against the Packers the last 2-3 seasons. So, let’s play the dog in the first half.
LA Rams @ Philadelphia
Phila by 1.5
Total — 45.5
Comments: Here’s the first of the five games where the betting angle applies. I like LAR anyway, especially given PHI injury concerns. Something is wrong with a team that blows a 17-0 to Washington and if the Eagles couldn’t handle that challenge, they may be in for an even longer afternoon at home against a much better team. LAR were a surprise in the opener, beating DAL as a home dog. LAR defense rose to the occasion in the red zone and the offense did just enough to get the win. I’m also starting to suspect there’s less pressure now on LAR, especially after two seasons when they’ve been under the spotlight. Now, factored at the third-best team in the division based on season win projections, LAR might be on a bit of a mission. To return to contender status they need to beat banged-up teams like PHI, and I suspect they will do exactly that. Last two seasons, PHI is just 5-11 ATS at home. Last three seasons, LAR are 15-9 ATS on the road. LAR +1 is the play. Note: I’ll also tease LAR up to +7.5 on the 6-point tease.
Carolina @ Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay by 8.5
Total — 47.5
Comments: CAR offense looked pretty good last week, but the defense was dismal. That sets up a possible breakout game for Brady, who had a poor game in his TB debut in NOR last week. That’s the storyline here, and all eyes will be on Brady and the TB offense. Indeed, this is a perfect setup for a confidence builder. But it seems foolish to lay this many points with an unproven commodity. We have no idea how Brady will perform with his new team, and if last week is any indication, there are reasons for concern. I expect CAR with veteran Bridgewater at QB will keep this close, and within the margin. Brady could light it up, but TB defense might also allow some yards and points. Since 2014, TB is just 4-15-2 ATS as a home favorite. This is the second game where the betting angle applies, and since I like CAR plus the points anyway, this is an easy wager for me. Taking CAR +8.5
Buffalo at Miami
Buffalo by 3
Total — 41
Comments: I got a good number here on the total at 41. I like the OVER. But it’s now 42. Tough to know where to score it, so I’ll post this officially at 41.5. OVER is 14-3 in MIA last 17 home openers. The heat and humidity wears down defenses, and here’s a good spot to take advantage. BUF look pretty good last week versus miserable NYJ, and will gain confidence on offense with another sub-par opponent. MIA has to be disappointed as hell with the weak effort at NWE last week. MIA should have covered, but an interception in the end zone late killed that prospect. MIA had been on of the surprising hot teams ATS since last mid-season, going 9-4 versus the number, and winning 5 of those games outright. I think MIA will play a better game here, especially on offense. Ancient journeyman Fitzpatrick played a horrible game last week but should perform better. He tends to play his best when least expected. Low total here, let’s look for the number to fly OVER.
NY Giants @ Chicago
Chicago by 5.5
Total — 42
Comments: Both these teams looked dismal much of their openers, although CHI staged an unexpected comeback win. NYG looked weak on both sides of the ball, especially along the OL and defensive secondary. OL missed several assignments and was badly outmatched versus PIT. They now draw another tough chore, facing CHI defensive front. I expect a long day for NYG. Also not much impressed with RB Barkley, who admittedly gets little help but so far shows nothing of the star qualities that were expected of him. Not a fan. Defensive backs were horrific last week, especially Love who apparently doesn’t know what the word “tackle” means. This is a bad team, in for a long season. I can’t trust CHI after being stuck by 17 on the road at DET at one point. Who knows what to expect from the Bears offense. UNDER 42 looks to be the play here, for a small bet.
Minnesota @ Indianapolis
Indianapolis by 3
Total — 47.5
Comments: Another angle play, betting against the winless favorite. That means taking MIN which was ambushed versus GB last week. That’s not nearly as humiliating as losing to JAX, however. Not sure how or why IND is laying a FG. Favored by 1 or 2…maybe. But a FG seems like a gift. I expect both teams to make major adjustments here and the outcome to be close. Give me the +3 in a game with lots of uncertainty.
Atlanta @ Dallas:
Dallas by 4
Total — 53.5
Comments: Fourth of the 5 angle plays, betting ATL +4. DAL was expected to win division and still might simply by default. Hell, 8-8 might win the NFC East this season. DAL should bounce back after failing to make big plays when needed in loss at LAR last week. Much easier foe with weak ATL defense that was destroyed versus SEA last week. But I still don’t trust DAL, especially laying points. Most indicators like DAL as the favorite, but I’ll still with the system and play ATL. They did roll up 500+ yards of offense in Week 1, but lots of those chunks were in garbage time. Line has dropped to DAL -3.5 in some places. Not sure why.
San Francisco @ NY Jets
San Francisco by 7
Total — 43.5
Comments: I must be insane. Give me the NYJ +7. It would take a madman to make a case for the Jets, so instead let me explain why the 49ers shouldn’t be laying this number. SFO scored only 10 points in four trips to red zone, converting just 2/11 on 3rd down, and that was at home versus ARZ. Also some injury issues at WR and DB could be a concern for the road favorites. NYJ last three years are 10-6-1 ATS as a home underdog, so they tend to play well when not expected. This might be another good spot. Few people will touch the Jets, and the reason is understandable. But I’ll go with the home dog getting the TD versus offense that may struggle and hasn’t dominated an opponent in quite a while.
Washington @ Arizona
Arizona by 7
Total — 46.5
Comments: WAS gained only 239 yards, but were +3 in turnovers in upset win vs. PHI. Similar to JAX situation where a bad team pulled off an unexpected victory at home and might be in for a letdown, especially with little proven talent. ARZ is the real deal on offense as evidenced by their strong showing at SFO, one of league’s best defenses. They get a much softer opponent here. ARZ is tempting to lay points, but better wager might be the teaser down to -1. If for some reason ARZ has an off day and last week’s win was a fluke, I’m more comfortable with the prospect of them just winning, so the teaser here has appeal. In fact, I’m pounding ARZ on three teasers this week — with TEN, LAR, and KC.
Baltimore @ Houston
Baltimore by 7.5
Total — 51 1/2
Comments: BAL virtually got a bye last week with cakewalk win versus CLE, but should be in for a tougher time here. I suspect HOU will play a better game than they showed at KC and with extra time to prepare off Thurs. loss, HOU finds itself in a game where they have no excuses for at least an improved effort. Linesmakers might be overreacting just a bit here to BAL looking so impressive and HOU showing little flash in Week 1. Looks like a classic case of oddsmaker and public overreaction. Serious concerns about HOU offense with bad playing calling and their best WR traded in offseason. However, all teams have off weeks and BAL could be in for a trap here. A full TD is enough to make be bite the forbidden fruit of betting against the Ravens.
Kansas City @ LA Chargers
Kansas City by 8.5
Total — 47
Comments: For years, I avoided betting on popular favorites like KC in this spot. A road favorite, playing division foe, yada yada, yada. I did the contrarian thing all the way to the poorhouse and now I’ve learned my lesson. At least on this game. Tyrod Taylor at QB for LAC is reason I’m fading them this week. He struggled in his start at woeful CIN last week, posting just 16 measly points. Now, he’s got to compete against Patrick Mahomes who now also has a running game. Looks scary for Chargers in their home opener. I won’t lay -8.5 but I do feel confident teasing the champions under a FG and look for them to take care of business. Extra rest also helps KC and coach Andy Ried is the all-time best with extra prep time, going 17-2 in games off the bye or on Thurs. Last four years, KC is 15-8-1 ATS as a road favorite.
SNF: New England @ Seattle
Seattle by 4
Total — 45
Comments: Sorry to disappoint, but I have no opinion on this game. NWE getting +4 is tempting but SEA just looks so strong right now. I’d nip at NWE if I can find +4.5, but this isn’t enough points. Moreover, NWE offense ran the ball well last week but might not be quite ready versus a SEA team that steamrolled over its opponent and looked unstoppable, at times. Pass.
MNF: New Orleans @ Las Vegas
New Orleans by 5.5
Total — 49
Comments: I’ve already decided I’m not betting this game, so spent no time on it. Last four years, the Saints are 12-3 ATS as a road favorite. New stadium and a new city for Raiders, which will be an unusual spot in the sense this isn’t a home field or game yet, with no fans nor any experience in this venue. NOR has some advantages playing in domes, and the road record ATS being impressive but I’m not laying this number. Slight lean to the OVER. Pass.
OFFICIAL PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD (12 picks):
First Half: Detroit +3.5 (-115) vs. Green Bay — $230 to win $200
LA Rams +1.5 vs. Philadelphia — $330 to win $300
Carolina +8.5 vs. Tampa Bay — $330 to win $300
Buffalo / Miami OVER 41.5 — $220 to win $200
NY Giants / Chicago UNDER 42 — $110 to win $100
Minnesota +3 vs. Indianapolis — $220 to win $200
Atlanta +4 vs. Dallas — $220 to win $200
NY Jets +7.5 vs. San Francisco — $220 to win $200
Houston + 7 vs. Baltimore — $220 to win $200
Teaser: ARZ -1 and LAR +7.5 — $360 to win $300
Teaser: ARZ -1 and TEN -2.5 — $360 to win $300
Teaser: ARZ -1 and KC -2.5 — $360 to win $300
__________
Read More
