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Posted by on Feb 14, 2019 in Blog, Essays, Personal | 0 comments

What’s the Worst Date You’ve Ever Been On?

 

 

Happy Valentines Day!

Let’s do something different.  Today, we’re going to have a little fun.  We’ve earned it, right?  On this special occasion, we’re going to try and recall the absolute worst dates of our lives.

I considered asking my faithful readers to post stories about their best dates.  It is Valentines Day, after all.  Thing is, the very best dates either lead to weddings, or if they’re truly amazing — maybe really wild and happened at the end of the night which might best remain unspoken.

So instead, let’s find some common ground and focus on the worst dates we’ve ever had.  Everyone’s been on a bad date, so we should all be able to play along.

I got married at age 29.  That means I spent about ten years playing the dating game.  Like most everyone, I went out on some good dates and some bad dates.  Most of them, I don’t remember much.

But I sure remember a Saturday night that happened sometime in 1987.

My worst date happened when I was around 25.  I met a girl somewhere, I forgot where exactly.  Attracted to the girl, I gave her my phone number and asked to call if she wanted to go out sometime.  To my surprise, she called just a few days later.  We talked for a few minutes and agreed that I’d pick her up Saturday night and take her out to dinner.  We may even have discussed going to a movie, as well.  I think Platoon had just been released.

Saturday comes around and I’m supposed to pick her up promptly at 6.  I get into my car and the piece of shit won’t start.  The bastard battery was dead.  Frantic, I tried getting a jump start but didn’t have any jumper cables.  Utterly desperate for transport and the clock ticking fast to 6, I called up my friend, Iranian Mike, a gambling buddy of mine who lived about a mile away.  I begged him to borrow his car for the night.  He said okay.  Iranian Mike even agreed to drive his car over and let me have it so I wouldn’t be late for my date.  Man, what a pal.  I think he might have owed me some money, so this made us even.

When Iranian Mike pulled into my apartment complex, I couldn’t believe my eyes.  He drove a dark blue Oldsmobile.  A Cutlass.  It was filthy.  There was dog hair all over the seats.  He had a small Shitzhu and the dog rode in the car all the time.  It was summer in Texas, so the dog shedded like crazy.  Worse, Iranian Mike’s car had a flat tire a few days earlier and was riding on one of those small donut-shaped emergency tires that was only intended as a temporary replacement to make it to a service station.  Iranian Mike tossed me the keys and told me to bring it back in one piece.

I can’t even fathom what must have gone through the girl’s head when I pulled in to pick her up, driving that dark blue Oldsmobile Cutlass of a shitbox with dog hair all over the seats and a tiny tire that made the car pull off to one side.

Hey, the night was still young.  Then, things went downhill from there.

I feel bad not remembering the girl’s name, right now.  So, I have to call her “the girl.”  If you’re reading — sorry girl.  She listened to my sob story about the car not starting and having to borrow a friend’s car at the last second.  I think she kinda’ appreciated the effort.  She even believed me for a second.

We pulled into one of the best Italian restaurants in North Dallas, Lombardi’s on Lower Greenville.  This was my go-to place.  Great food.  Live jazz on weekends.  I’d even made a dinner reservation in advance.  What a gentleman.  A player.

The next 90 minutes were excruciating.  Ever been in a confined space, trapped in a sit-down situation, and within 5 minutes you know it’s already a disaster?  How about this:  Ever been crucified?  That was this date.

We had absolutely nothing in common.  I mean, nothing.  Everything she liked and enjoyed, I detested.  Every topic I brought up, she took no interest in.  But, she had a great ass.  Man, I couldn’t get the check fast enough.

We both went through the motions.  We gave it the old college try.  I remember as we were looking across at each other one of those cozy two-top tables meant for couples truly in love, recalling that many odd relationships start off sailing on rough seas before calmer waters.  Indeed, many love affairs do begin when the two people can’t stand each other.  But this wasn’t that.  She didn’t dislike me.  And I didn’t dislike her.  The date pretty much just ended up like walking up to a stranger on a bus and saying, “hey, let’s hang out together for a couple of hours.”  What would one expect?  Rolling the dice like that, what are the odds it’s going to work out and you’re going to keep hitting your point?  Dating is/was just a numbers game.  Keep tossing and eventually, you hit the 7.  But along the way, there’s a few boxcars and snake-eyes.  This date wasn’t like crapping out.  It was like misfiring with two dice bounding off the table.  A miscue.  A bad roll.

The waiter brought over the check and by this time there was no chance in hell we were going to that movie.  Even if I really wanted to see Platoon.  All I wanted to do was pack her into the passenger seat with all the grey dog hair and wheel her back to her street, prop open the side door, and slow down enough to let her get a running start when the stilettos hit the asphalt.

But first I had to pay the bill.

Uh oh.

Dallas — we have a problem.  When I reached for the check that’s when I suddenly realized this night was about to become so far beyond a humiliation that I think I just lost it right then and there and began to burst out laughing.

A few hours earlier while trying to find a jump start for the car, I’d switched jackets.  That meant I’d left my billfold in the other coat pocket.  The billfold had all my money and credit cards.  So, I was sitting at a dinner table on a Saturday night penniless.  Flat fucking broke.

I think I was laughing by this time.  Crying, maybe.  I don’t remember.  The girl must have thought I was insane.  If there was a bridge nearby, I probably would have jumped off it.

“Umm, you’re not going to believe this, but umm…..”

Whatever syllables followed next from my trembling salty lips aren’t important, nor are they remembered exactly word for word, some three decades later.  However, I do remember this.  My date actually gasped for air.  Then, she just stared.  Sort of like a death stare.  Then, she calmly reached into her purse, tossed some money on the tabletop, and confessed she needed to go to the ladies room immediately.  Yeah, I totally got that.  I could surely understand.  I’m stoked with empathy.  The girl needed to catch her breath.  Take a little break.  I’m sure our date had been quite overwhelming.

Well, I sat there by myself with my hands over my face in silence for the next ten minutes.  The agony seemed a lot longer than that.  It sure seemed like a long time for her to be using the restroom.  So, I left her money on the table and approached to the hostess stand.  I was still clueless.

“Hey, did you see a brunette lady in a polka-dot dress up here?  She’s my date.  I can’t find her.”

 “Yeah, she jumped in a taxi and left five minutes ago.”

Can you believe that?  I didn’t even get a kiss.

Well, at least I got a free dinner out of the worst date of my life.

 

Note:  ‘Tis the season of love.  Now it’s your turn.  Please join our fun at Facebook where readers can post their WORST DATE EVER stories in the “comments” section.  My last poll question got about 230 replies.  This one should be a blast.  CLICK THE LINK BELOW:

 

 

 

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Posted by on Feb 13, 2019 in Blog, Essays, Las Vegas, Personal, Travel | 0 comments

Ten Things Las Vegas People Secretly Want to Say to Friends and Relatives Who Visit

 

 

How to Lose Freinds, Piss-Off Family Members, and Maintain Your Sanity:  A Las Vegas Crumudgeons’s Dark Confessional on Dealing with Visitors

 

Las Vegas is a terrific place to go on vacation.  Las Vegas is an even better place to live.

Not only is there lots of stuff to do 24-hours-a-day, seven-days-a-week — but someone we know always seems to be in town.  If not, then they’ll visit eventually.  It’s like living inside Grand Central Station, only with about a million video poker machines.

If you live in Las Vegas, people from all those boring places are bound to come and pay you a visit at some point in their lives.  In fact, there’s a 100 percent chance you’ll eventually hear from every old high-school chum, ex-whatever, former co-worker, ballbusting boss, frat brother, step-uncle, old college roommate, softball teammate, and long-lost distant relative, including those whose names you can’t remember and/or have been desperately trying to forget.

One surprise about living here is that locals don’t tend to hang out together much.  Perhaps we’re just too exhausted entertaining all the out-of-towners to have much time left for friends and neighbors.  Visitors expect us to be at their beck and call….acting as their booking agent, tour guide, chauffeur, casino host, maid, cook, banker, and sometimes even the co-signer for bail.

Yes, I did that once.

Don’t misunderstand me.  I do like some of my friends and even enjoy the company of a couple of my relatives.  But I also receive 3 to 4 messages per week on average, saying something to the effect — “Hey Nolan, let’s get together!”  Imagine how high this number might be if I weren’t such an asshat someone with impeccable taste and high standards.  Sure, these social invitations are well-intentioned.  I’d like to accept most of them — especially when they’re buying.  Unfortunately, tough choices have to be made to preserve one’s sanity.

I’ve begun to decline the majority of invitations that I receive.  It’s nothing personal.  I’m just tired of hanging out in casinos for hours at a time, without any sense of purpose.  Most nights, I’d much rather spend my free time at home — getting into political fights with complete strangers on Facebook — rather than sitting in a sportsbook, which all seems so pointless, especially when the shitty team you bet on like the Los Angeles Lakers can’t even cover the pointspread even though they’re playing against the worst team in the NBA that just lost and is in the second game of a back-to-back situation and you found a -9 when every other sportbook in town had it at -10.  And, don’t even get me started on the prospect of grazing up and down The Strip like I’m stuck in the middle of a cattle drive or wading through mall crowds to go see a $140 show.

Screw that, man!

Welcome to fabulous Las Vegas.  Sorry, but I’ve got a headache.  Have fun.  You’re on your own.

Here are ten unspoken secrets that most Las Vegas residents want to say to our dear friends and relatives who come here to visit:

 

[1]  Give us plenty of notice when you’re coming.  Chances are, you planned your Las Vegas vacation several weeks ago, or even months in advance.  Well, we have lives, too.  If you really want to get together, give us as much notice as possible that you’re coming.  I can’t count all the occasions I got text message asking me if I want to get together that same night, and look down and see the message was sent at 3:30 pm.  We can’t drop everything on two hours notice.  It doesn’t work that way.  Warn us please, so we can try and be out of town ourselves.

[2]  Unless it’s an emergency, we won’t go to The Strip!  I realize the main reason 40 million people come to Las Vegas annually is to hang out at fancy casinos and blow tons of money for free drinks.  Flying here and then not going to The Strip would be like taking a trip to Egypt and then skipping the Pyramids.  But hey, you can even see a pyramid here — it’s called Luxor.  Thing is, most locals over the age of 30 don’t go to The Strip — ever.  Crowds, high costs, paid parking, terrible odds on machines, we don’t want to go there.

[3]  Most of us can’t afford $200 dinners every night.  We know you saw a celeb chef on TV  want to try out their new place.  Reality is, that’s just a branding exercise.  A facade.  Famous people get paid lots of money to stamp their names on the sign in front, because, for some inexplicable reason, lots of gullible people want to eat in a place with a famous person’s name on the sign.  Again, have fun!  We’ll stick to our favorite locals’ spot, park for free, get better service, and save about 40 percent on the bill.  Oh, and tap, not sparkling.

[4]  We don’t have connections to grease you with free show tickets.  Sorry, but we can’t pick up the phone, call Alfonse at the Copa Room, and have two front row tickets waiting for you and a special guest at Will Call.  That archaic system ended about the time the Rat Pack died.  But, here’s what we can do:  Direct you to a great website where you can book your own show tickets!  Oh, joy!  One notable exception is something really cool called Half Price Show Tickets, which is a kiosk storefront on The Strip.  Same day, last-minute show tickets are deeply discounted.  Go there, so long as you don’t mind seeing a D-grade show like a juggler or “comedian” at 2 in the afternoon with a two-drink minimum.  If you want tickets to any of the big headliners, it’s best to reserve well in advance.

[5]  Friday and Saturday night are to be avoided at all costs.  Whatever we said earlier about visiting the mega-casinos — double it twice and turn it sideways when it comes to heading to The Strip on a weekend.  Recently, I made the monumental mistake of meeting someone at Bally’s on a Friday evening at 8 pm and then waited 45 minutes idling in my car to get out of the parking lot.  I hated my ex-friend, after that.  Forget about being anywhere around City Center during a Las Vegas Golden Knights (NHL) home game.  When it comes to holidays, forget-about-it.  I don’t know you.  I don’t want to know you.

[6]  Don’t even think about asking me to do something on an NFL Sunday or a Monday night during football season.  Unless you hit the lottery and need somebody to do some serious partying with, I’m busy.

[7]  Don’t expect me to drop whatever I’m doing to entertain you.  What do I look like, Britney Freaking Spears?  What talents I possess won’t interest you.  Accordingly, your time is best utilized compensating a true professional.  I can’t just drop whatever I’m doing and become your personal servant.  Besides, the poker game I’m likely sitting in on a typical Wednesday night is probably great and I need to play a just few more hours to try and get out of the hole.

[8]  We aren’t forking over our casino comps for you to splurge.  The $62.17 I managed to rake into my account at Stations Casino cost me $2,700 in video poker losses over four months.  I worked damn hard for those comps.  So, don’t expect me to blow them on you.  Yeah, I love you, Mom.  But use your own comp points.

[9]  If we’re picking you up somewhere, be there, on time.  Picking up a friend in front of a 5,500-room hotel isn’t like going through the drive-thru at Wendy’s.  Chances are, we’ve got one shot at seeing you standing outside on the sidewalk.  If you’re late or aren’t there, that means we have to go circle around ten minutes again through the taxi line.  Be where you say you’ll be.  On time.  If there’s any doubt about making the connection, always leave 15 minutes early.  That seems to make just about everyone right on time.

[10]  Buy your own dope.  Las Vegas has gotten to be a tourist destination for dope smokers.  I don’t know shit about that stuff, except that lots of people appear to be happy and having lots of fun.  I have nothing against marijuana or cannabis or whatever it’s called.  Stay high, my friends.  But I’m not becoming your personal pusher.  I’ve got another reputation issues already without being labeled El Broko El Chapo.

 

So, what’s all this mean?  Based on each of my demands, that pretty much leaves just one spot open for visitors who want to get together and hang out with me:  1:30 pm on non-holiday Tuesday afternoons at Maggiano’s Little Italy in Downtown Summerlin, but only if you’re buying (alcohol must be included).

Sound good?  Then, give me a ring!  I can’t wait to see you!

 

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Posted by on Feb 11, 2019 in Blog, Essays, Rants and Raves | 2 comments

Morsels of My Madness IV

 

 

Random thoughts that came to me while eating sour lemonade and drinking a ham sandwich…..

 

[1]  If asked to describe my social media account in just five words or less, I’ll go with this:     OLD MAN YELLS AT CLOUD.

[2]  Actor “Rob Lowe” was trending last week.

My first thought was:  Did he die?
My second thought was:  Sexual harassment?
My third thought was:  Another old blackface photo?

This is the world we now live in.

[3]  I don’t want to sound sacrilegious, but The Bible is boring.  It’s a terrible book.  Hint:  If they want more readers, hire Stephen King to do a massive re-write.  If there’s a movie, toss in a few car chases.

[4]  I’m waiting for Five-Thirty-Eight to do a detailed study on the inverse relationship between aging and the number of current hit songs someone can name.

[5]  Someone posted an early draft of the Green New Deal, which contains some crazy-sounding stuff.  Okay, whatever.  Let me remind everyone that Sir Paul McCartney’s first draft of a weird song that started out as “Scrambled Eggs” eventually became a rock masterpiece titled, “Yesterday.”

[6]  Has anyone checked to see if Matthew McConaughey actually drives a Lincoln Navigator?  I really want to know.

[7]  Too bad Rep. John Dingell died last week at the ripe young age of 92.  He was almost old enough to run for president.

[8]  I’m done playing in poker tournaments because I’m fed up with all the table changes.  I always get moved off my starting table straight into the parking lot.

[9]  Has anyone ever approached the seating host at a restaurant and said, “I’m starving — oh, and I’m here with the Donner Party?”

[10]  If children got screwed by clowns as often as they get doodled by priests and preachers it would be against the law to take your kids to the circus.

[11]  Not sure who I’d rather see doing hard time busting rocks in a prison yard — Donald Trump or Sheldon Adelson.  Here’s an idea:  Handcuff the two shitbags together.  That would make one helluva’ reality television show, wouldn’t it?  Gives The Defiant Ones a whole new meaning.

[12]  I’m curious about something.  In 1969, we landed a rocket on the moon using computers the size of a gymnasium.  Now, fifty years later, how come I can’t get a fucking internet connection in Downtown Summerlin?

[13]  Why are so many old extremist Right-wing White men scared of a relatively powerless 29-year-old freshman socialist congresswoman of color?

[14]  When you wash your car at one of those do-it-yourself places, isn’t handling the scrubber kinda’ like using someone else’s toothbrush?

[15]  The timeline of every rock band:

  1.  Struggle
  2.  First Hit
  3.  Pop Stardom
  4.  Drugs and alcohol
  5.  Fights
  6.  Breakup
  7.  Recovery
  8.  Boredom
  9.  Bankruptcy
  10.  Reunion tour

[16]  I’m genuinely curious.  How can people with no original thoughts and utterly nothing interesting to say somehow get 450,o00 twitter followers?

[17]  Am I the only person alive still using Windows 98?  Shouldn’t I get a lifetime achievement award or something?

[18]  Though it does take creativity, I figured out how to live totally rent-free.  My new home address is an IKEA store.

[19]  The word “FUCK” is the most creative word in the English language.  Think of how many derivatives there are and different ways it can be used.  Even the way “FUCK” is said aloud can mean completely different things. “FUCK!” said one way can mean, “this is terrible!” yet can also mean “this is wonderful!” based solely upon the inflection of one’s voice.  Whoever invented the word is a fucking genius.

[20]  You haven’t really stood up for much in life unless you have at least a few haters.  It’s good to have haters.  Hate from those who are ignorant is a currency as valuable as gold.

 

Want more?  Previous “Morsels of My Madness” here:

NOW A TRILOGY:  MORSELS OF MY MADNESS

EVEN MORE MORSELS OF MY MADNESS

MORE MORSELS OF MY MADNESS

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Posted by on Feb 10, 2019 in Blog, Essays, Politics, Rants and Raves, What's Left | 1 comment

Why Do They Lie So Much About Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez?

 

 

Frantic to deflect our attention away from the malady of Trump and his voluminous crimes, the far-Right has resorted to flinging a ceaseless bombardment of demonstrable falsehoods, hoping they’ll stick.  With Hillary Clinton fading into the past, they desperately need a new bogey-woman — and now appear to have found her. 

Here’s to exposing their lies with facts and telling the truth….     

 

Why do they lie so much?

That’s the big question I’ve been asking myself since the unexpected and unprecedented rise of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the 29-year-old newly-elected congresswoman from New York who’s made quite the political splash in Washington.

Ocasio-Cortez’s has become so well-known, so fast, she’s now known by a simple three-letter moniker, “AOC.”  Her appeal among progressives is well-justified.  She’s young.  She’s energetic.  She’s genuine.  She’s fearless.

AOC’s meteoric rise onto the national stage has also made her into an inviting political target.  She’s become the victim of outright fabrication.  Already, there’s a vast disinformation campaign underway which intends to discredit her.  The far-Right’s assembly line of lies has been cranked into action.  The hate machine is going full blast.  Like a doomsday machine that can’t be shut off once it’s been programmed, this is only the beginning.  The deceptive anti-AOC narrative has been artfully crafted.  Eventually, it becomes impossible to alter first impressions and change stubborn simple minds.  Political disinformation campaigns work. 

Take a look at all the activity related to AOC spewed across social media platforms this past week.  She’s become the poster girl for extremist Right-wing backlash.  Frantic to deflect our attention away from the malady of Donald Trump and his voluminous crimes, the conservative movement has resorted to flinging a ceaseless bombardment of demonstrable falsehoods, desperately hoping they’ll stick.  With Hillary Clinton fading into the past, they desperately need a new bogey-woman — and now appear to have found her.

For example, here’s just one of many social media outlets blasting AOC with completely made-up accusations.  Some troll calling itself “The Patriot Conservative” somehow has several thousand followers.  The Facebook page is percolating with attacks on AOC.  Let’s be quite clear — political criticism is certainly fair game.  However, complete disregard of the facts and outright fabrication is not.

Check out this deceptive post at “The Patriot Conservative.”  It mocks AOC (and several other Democratic congresswomen) for allegedly not standing up during Trump’s State of the Union Address at the instant a 10-year-old girl was introduced to the crowd and lauded for overcoming brain cancer.  Here’s a snapshot of the false post:

 

Falsehoods from the far-Right aren’t the exception.  They are now the rule.  Their toxicity has gone viral, infecting an army of faithful foot-soldiers.  Impressionable followers, numbering in the thousands, are willing to gobble up any lie.  Too lazy to fact-check anything, they share this garbage and litter the social media landscape with lies.

Again, here’s clear evidence.  Hundreds and perhaps thousands of memes exploded all over Twitter and Facebook in recent days, hammering AOC for “not standing.”  Here’s just one of the countless examples of fakery:

 

 

The meme looks really bad, doesn’t it?  Allegedly, AOC didn’t even stand up nor applaud when the young cancer survivor was recognized by Trump during his speech.  The photograph even shows AOC scowling.  [Oh, and by the way, the memes can’t even get the girl’s age correct.  She’s not 8.  She’s 10.]

There’s only one problem.

The meme, the photo, the entire incident — all are demonstrably false.  It’s completely made up.  It’s garbage.

Don’t take my word for it.  Here’s proof.

I went back and carefully watched Trump’s introduction of the young cancer survivor.  It took one click on YouTube and about 3o seconds to realize what was being reported was a total lie.

Here’s the screenshot I took of AOC and other Democratic congresswomen (mostly dressed in white, which makes them easy to identify).  This image shows AOC at the very instant the young girl is introduced to the crowd:

 

 

Note who standing up at the second Trump makes his introduction.  In case it’s not clear, that’s AOC in the row behind the table.  That’s her — STANDING UP.  That’s her — APPLAUDING.

Should you suspect I doctored this photo, or believe it’s from a different part of the State of the Union speech, watch for yourself in real time.  Click the short clip below.  You can fast-forward to the 2:20 mark, which is when Trump makes his introduction and AOC and the others stand and applaud:

 

 

Seriously, do these people have no shame?

What to make of the social media sewer that manufactures this fakery and the willful idiots who spread their lies?

Unfortunately, it’s too late now.  Many more people will click and share the false AOC meme than will ever read this column.  No one bothers to verify its accuracy.  Moreover, this is just one of the countless other examples of grotesque disinformation floating around the internet intended to malign AOC.

This does raise a more poignant question.  If AOC’s ideas about economic inequality, universal health care, and global warming are so wrong, why then do they ridicule her appearance, question her patriotism, deride her background from modest economic means, and fabricate bullshit?  Why don’t they just stick to the issues?

Is this yet another despicable example of misogyny?  Is it racism?  Perhaps, somewhat.  But I think it’s much deeper than that.  The far-Right knows they can’t win on the issues.  Their only hope is to demonize the most convenient messenger-target and if necessary, make stuff up.  The mudslinging is working.  Apparently, about 40 percent of the country swims away with the juicy bait — hook, line, and sinker.  They’ve become the pupfishes of political deceit.

Next time you see another anti-AOC meme, ask yourself one simple question — why are they attacking a 29-year-old female congresswoman with relatively little voting power compared to the vast arsenal of political and economic heavyweights who have sewn so much discord?  Why do they feel so threatened by this young lady?

Why do they make up lies?

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Posted by on Feb 10, 2019 in Blog, Essays, Music and Concert Reviews | 0 comments

Matt Lessinger’s Annual Grammy Awards Analysis and Forecast [2019]

 

 

If you’re a regular reader and not yet up to speed on Matt Lessinger and his expertise on awards shows and analysis, then I’m not sure what else to say.

He’s been introduced here before.  Get with the program.

Let’s skip the usual preamble and get straight to Matt’s thoughts on tonight’s Grammy Awards.  For the record, I know nothing about this year’s music or ceremony, which will air tonight.  The Grammy Awards typically warbles between mesmerizingly great and train wreck awful.  I expect more of the same, tonight.

For those who appreciate the science of handicapping and value great analysis, I urge you to read his thoughts here, which should be valued as a terrific handicapping outlier.   You need not be knowledgable of the music nor interested in the Grammy’s to value the high level of this work — which is why I’m eager to share Matt’s contribution here at my site.

Matt’s e-mail to me reads as follows:

.

.

Hi Nolan:
.
Sadly, I’ve looked at the Grammy odds on three different sites, and the best odds were on Bovada each time.  You know the offshore sites are getting worse when Bovada has the best lines!  That’s unfortunate because they are only allowing a max bet of $125. on each category, and I have no idea how they came up with that number, but they are standing firm on that max.  I don’t have the time or the resources to scour for a site with potentially better odds and/or maximums, but if anyone can find one and they are willing to share that information, it would be most appreciated.  In the meantime, the odds listed here can all be found on Bovada at the time of this writeup.
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The most obvious difference from years past is that there are now eight nominees in each category instead of five.  That makes our job a little harder, but there’s still value to be found and money to be made.  The other difference is that the nominees lean way more in the direction of hip hop than in years past. If I had been forced to bet on who this year’s nominees would be, admittedly I would have gotten slaughtered.  For example, if you look at the category for Best Pop Vocal Album, which has six nominees (Taylor Swift, Ariana Grande, Camila Cabello, Kelly Clarkson, Pink, Shawn Mendes), I would have said that each of those albums could easily have landed in the Album of the Year category. Instead, NONE of them were nominated!  For Taylor Swift and Ariana Grande to not have been nominated in an eight-horse field for Album of the Year is downright shocking.  It may signal that the Grammys are going in a new direction.  However, until they prove that they are willing to change the way they hand out the actual winners trophies, we have to assume for betting purposes that they are still the same old Grammys.
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I’m going to list the categories in order of confidence, going from least to most.
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Let’s begin:
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SONG OF THE YEAR
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“Shallow” by Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper is the -300 favorite and will almost certainly win.  There are going to be two themes that repeat themselves throughout the categories.  The first is that there are no standout nominees in any category.  In my humble opinion, “Shallow” is not even a particularly good song, but it may be the best one in this weak field.  The second recurring theme is that we will summarily dismiss any hip-hop nominees, even though there are more than usual this year, until it is shown that they can win the open categories on a more regular basis.  With regard to this category, that eliminates half the field.  Out of the ones that are left, Lady Gaga is the only one with a winning Grammy track record, having won six of them in the past.  “Shallow” is the logical choice, but at -300 it is unplayable.  I’m going to take a complete flyer for a token wager on the longest shot in the field, “The Middle” by Zedd and Maren Morris.  Bombs away!  My simple logic is that it is the only other song in the field that would be considered pop.  On the one hand, the fact that none of the Best Pop Albums were nominated for Album of the Year signals a move away from pop music.  On the other hand, Grammys have always rewarded pop musicians in the open categories, most notably Taylor Swift and Adele in recent years.  “The Middle” might be the only upbeat song in the entire field, and it wouldn’t shock me if some voters gravitate to it just because it sounds uplifting in a sea of comparatively depressing music.
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My play: “The Middle” by Zedd and Maren Morris at 33-1, for a very small wager.  But if you’re willing to lay the heavy wood, you’ll probably win with “Shallow” at -300.
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BEST NEW ARTIST
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When the nominees were announced, my initial reaction was that Dua Lipa would be the odds-on favorite.  Instead, H.E.R. is the -110 favorite and Dua Lipa is +180, and it’s far back to the rest of the field.  Anecdotally speaking, H.E.R. is from Vallejo, CA which is a half hour away from me, and I listen to R&B music, and I had never heard any of her songs before.  Once I listened to her, I had to admit I liked her music quite a bit, and she has a recognizable talent such that she could certainly win.  But her resume doesn’t match up to Dua Lipa, who has already had a #1 song (New Rules) and international radio airplay.  At the given prices, Dua Lipa is definitely the better value play.  It’s hard to summarily dismiss the longshots – someone like Luke Combs or Margo Price could certainly be bombs away at 22-1 – but the problem in this category is that it’s hard to predict which longshot the voters would gravitate towards, so it’s easier to just stick with the proven commodity.
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My play: Dua Lipa at +180
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ALBUM OF THE YEAR
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Disclaimer: As much as I try to keep my personal musical opinions out of this process and stick to cold, hard analysis, sometimes that’s just not possible. This is one of those times.
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Kacey Musgraves is the +120 favorite. I am quite sure a country artist has never been favored in this category for as long as I’ve been following Grammy betting.  To me that signals the weakness with the other nominees more than it signals the strength of her album.  She could certainly win, but there’s no value there.  The 2nd and 3rd choices are the Black Panther album, which is essentially Kendrick Lamar, and then Drake.  Both are hip-hop artists, and so I’ll say the same thing I’ve said every year for the past 15 years: the hip-hop artists who have previously won Album of the Year are Outkast and Lauryn Hill.  That’s it, that’s the list.  If one of them becomes the third member of that list, more power to them, but at +250 and +350 they’re unplayable.  Cardi B and Post Malone are two more hip-hop artists that can even more easily be dismissed.  Brandi Carlile and H.E.R. are the two longest shots on the board, and justifiably so.  Out of the last four nominees I listed, Carlile is the only one who should have any shot at winning due to her career longevity, which is often rewarded in the AOTY category, but sometimes just being nominated is the reward, which is what this feels like.
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That leaves Janelle Monae, who is listed at 6-1 on Bovada, but I’ve seen her as low as 3-1 elsewhere.  Being completely honest, this is more of a hunch play than anything else.  It simply feels like it should be her time.  She is an R&B artist, which has historically been more successful in the open categories than either hip-hop or country.  She has had a musical career spanning almost 15 years, which is more than most of this field can claim.  Prince was an uncredited collaborator on the album, and assuming the voters are aware of that, his recent passing will certainly carry some weight. It was one of the most critically acclaimed albums of the year.  And finally, inserting my own two cents, this album deserves to win. At 6-1 the value is there.
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My play: Dirty Computer by Janelle Monae at 6-1.
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RECORD OF THE YEAR
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Despite the constant insistence that Song of the Year and Record of the Year are two distinct categories, the same song wins in both categories way too often to be a coincidence. “Shallow” is the -300 favorite for SOTY and will probably win.  So why is it the +160 second choice in this category, and “This is America” by Childish Gambino is the -150 favorite?  I tried to find a logical reason and couldn’t come up with one.  This is the best bet on the board.  I’ll include another token wager on “The Middle” in case it sweeps both categories, but it’s far more likely that Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper will get the scoop.
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My play (Best bet): “Shallow” at +160
Token wager: “The Middle” at 22-1
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Good luck to everyone this year!
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Cheers,
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Matt L
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