Matt Lessinger’s Annual Grammy Awards Analysis and Forecast [2019]
If you’re a regular reader and not yet up to speed on Matt Lessinger and his expertise on awards shows and analysis, then I’m not sure what else to say.
He’s been introduced here before. Get with the program.
Let’s skip the usual preamble and get straight to Matt’s thoughts on tonight’s Grammy Awards. For the record, I know nothing about this year’s music or ceremony, which will air tonight. The Grammy Awards typically warbles between mesmerizingly great and train wreck awful. I expect more of the same, tonight.
For those who appreciate the science of handicapping and value great analysis, I urge you to read his thoughts here, which should be valued as a terrific handicapping outlier. You need not be knowledgable of the music nor interested in the Grammy’s to value the high level of this work — which is why I’m eager to share Matt’s contribution here at my site.
Matt’s e-mail to me reads as follows:
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Hi Nolan:
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Sadly, I’ve looked at the Grammy odds on three different sites, and the best odds were on Bovada each time. You know the offshore sites are getting worse when Bovada has the best lines! That’s unfortunate because they are only allowing a max bet of $125. on each category, and I have no idea how they came up with that number, but they are standing firm on that max. I don’t have the time or the resources to scour for a site with potentially better odds and/or maximums, but if anyone can find one and they are willing to share that information, it would be most appreciated. In the meantime, the odds listed here can all be found on Bovada at the time of this writeup.
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The most obvious difference from years past is that there are now eight nominees in each category instead of five. That makes our job a little harder, but there’s still value to be found and money to be made. The other difference is that the nominees lean way more in the direction of hip hop than in years past. If I had been forced to bet on who this year’s nominees would be, admittedly I would have gotten slaughtered. For example, if you look at the category for Best Pop Vocal Album, which has six nominees (Taylor Swift, Ariana Grande, Camila Cabello, Kelly Clarkson, Pink, Shawn Mendes), I would have said that each of those albums could easily have landed in the Album of the Year category. Instead, NONE of them were nominated! For Taylor Swift and Ariana Grande to not have been nominated in an eight-horse field for Album of the Year is downright shocking. It may signal that the Grammys are going in a new direction. However, until they prove that they are willing to change the way they hand out the actual winners trophies, we have to assume for betting purposes that they are still the same old Grammys.
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I’m going to list the categories in order of confidence, going from least to most.
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Let’s begin:
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SONG OF THE YEAR
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“Shallow” by Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper is the -300 favorite and will almost certainly win. There are going to be two themes that repeat themselves throughout the categories. The first is that there are no standout nominees in any category. In my humble opinion, “Shallow” is not even a particularly good song, but it may be the best one in this weak field. The second recurring theme is that we will summarily dismiss any hip-hop nominees, even though there are more than usual this year, until it is shown that they can win the open categories on a more regular basis. With regard to this category, that eliminates half the field. Out of the ones that are left, Lady Gaga is the only one with a winning Grammy track record, having won six of them in the past. “Shallow” is the logical choice, but at -300 it is unplayable. I’m going to take a complete flyer for a token wager on the longest shot in the field, “The Middle” by Zedd and Maren Morris. Bombs away! My simple logic is that it is the only other song in the field that would be considered pop. On the one hand, the fact that none of the Best Pop Albums were nominated for Album of the Year signals a move away from pop music. On the other hand, Grammys have always rewarded pop musicians in the open categories, most notably Taylor Swift and Adele in recent years. “The Middle” might be the only upbeat song in the entire field, and it wouldn’t shock me if some voters gravitate to it just because it sounds uplifting in a sea of comparatively depressing music.
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My play: “The Middle” by Zedd and Maren Morris at 33-1, for a very small wager. But if you’re willing to lay the heavy wood, you’ll probably win with “Shallow” at -300.
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BEST NEW ARTIST
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When the nominees were announced, my initial reaction was that Dua Lipa would be the odds-on favorite. Instead, H.E.R. is the -110 favorite and Dua Lipa is +180, and it’s far back to the rest of the field. Anecdotally speaking, H.E.R. is from Vallejo, CA which is a half hour away from me, and I listen to R&B music, and I had never heard any of her songs before. Once I listened to her, I had to admit I liked her music quite a bit, and she has a recognizable talent such that she could certainly win. But her resume doesn’t match up to Dua Lipa, who has already had a #1 song (New Rules) and international radio airplay. At the given prices, Dua Lipa is definitely the better value play. It’s hard to summarily dismiss the longshots – someone like Luke Combs or Margo Price could certainly be bombs away at 22-1 – but the problem in this category is that it’s hard to predict which longshot the voters would gravitate towards, so it’s easier to just stick with the proven commodity.
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My play: Dua Lipa at +180
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ALBUM OF THE YEAR
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Disclaimer: As much as I try to keep my personal musical opinions out of this process and stick to cold, hard analysis, sometimes that’s just not possible. This is one of those times.
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Kacey Musgraves is the +120 favorite. I am quite sure a country artist has never been favored in this category for as long as I’ve been following Grammy betting. To me that signals the weakness with the other nominees more than it signals the strength of her album. She could certainly win, but there’s no value there. The 2nd and 3rd choices are the Black Panther album, which is essentially Kendrick Lamar, and then Drake. Both are hip-hop artists, and so I’ll say the same thing I’ve said every year for the past 15 years: the hip-hop artists who have previously won Album of the Year are Outkast and Lauryn Hill. That’s it, that’s the list. If one of them becomes the third member of that list, more power to them, but at +250 and +350 they’re unplayable. Cardi B and Post Malone are two more hip-hop artists that can even more easily be dismissed. Brandi Carlile and H.E.R. are the two longest shots on the board, and justifiably so. Out of the last four nominees I listed, Carlile is the only one who should have any shot at winning due to her career longevity, which is often rewarded in the AOTY category, but sometimes just being nominated is the reward, which is what this feels like.
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That leaves Janelle Monae, who is listed at 6-1 on Bovada, but I’ve seen her as low as 3-1 elsewhere. Being completely honest, this is more of a hunch play than anything else. It simply feels like it should be her time. She is an R&B artist, which has historically been more successful in the open categories than either hip-hop or country. She has had a musical career spanning almost 15 years, which is more than most of this field can claim. Prince was an uncredited collaborator on the album, and assuming the voters are aware of that, his recent passing will certainly carry some weight. It was one of the most critically acclaimed albums of the year. And finally, inserting my own two cents, this album deserves to win. At 6-1 the value is there.
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My play: Dirty Computer by Janelle Monae at 6-1.
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RECORD OF THE YEAR
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Despite the constant insistence that Song of the Year and Record of the Year are two distinct categories, the same song wins in both categories way too often to be a coincidence. “Shallow” is the -300 favorite for SOTY and will probably win. So why is it the +160 second choice in this category, and “This is America” by Childish Gambino is the -150 favorite? I tried to find a logical reason and couldn’t come up with one. This is the best bet on the board. I’ll include another token wager on “The Middle” in case it sweeps both categories, but it’s far more likely that Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper will get the scoop.
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My play (Best bet): “Shallow” at +160
Token wager: “The Middle” at 22-1
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Good luck to everyone this year!
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Cheers,
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Matt L
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While doing a web search, I was particularly amused by this ground shaking announcement that nobody else apparently saw, except me and maybe the guy who wrote it. According to the press release, Aaron Murray and Christain Hackenberg HIGHLIGHTED the QB’s taken in this year’s draft. Highlighted! Presumably, Ryan Leaf and Joe Kapp weren’t available.
