NFL 2019: Week #3 Picks

 

 

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2019 NFL WAGERING RECORD

Wins — Losses — Pushes          8 — 7 — 0

Starting Bankroll:   $ 8,296.

Current Bankroll:   $8,431.  (+ $135.)

Last Week’s Results:         5 — 3 — 0  (+ $295.)

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This Week’s Wagers:  Wagering $2,220. to win $1,950. on 9 bets.

 

TEASER:  Jacksonville +8 with Minnesota -2.5 — Risking $240. to win $200.

Note:  Jacksonville already covered the first part of the teaser.  The Jacksonville pick was posted on Facebook.  Please check Facebook prior to the Thursday NFL game, since some of my wagers will be posted there.

I’m doing a mini-teaser wheel with Minnesota this week, expecting the Vikings to take care of business at home against visiting Oakland.  I’ve wheeled the Vikings on three teasers (see the other two legs below).  Minnesota is an appealing bet for many reasons.  Most sportsbooks currently list them as -9 point favorites.  However, a few books have them at -8.5 which presents significantly improved teaser possibilities — namely capturing the win and cover on the key number (3).  For those new to betting teasers, we are using Stanford Wong’s methodology first described nearly 20 years ago in “Sharp Sports Betting” to teaser favorites (or sometimes underdogs) over four key betting numbers in the NFL — 3, 4, 6, and 7.  Hence, we reduce a big favorite down to a small favorite.  Minnesota’s superiority over Oakland doesn’t need much evidence.  Although both teams are 1-1, the Vikings bring the much better defense.  Minnesota has been a strong bet at home under head coach Zimmer (covering in nearly 70 percent of home games during his tenure) and in the midst of a tough division and race won’t take Raiders lightly.  Oakland simply lacks the talent to go on the road here without serious help (Minnesota turnovers, etc.), evidenced by losing 15 of their last 17 non-home games where they have gone a dreadful 4-13 ATS in those contests.  Raiders play first road game after two at home, and face Minnesota coming off a tough loss at Green Bay.  Vikings probably worth a look laying -8.5 and teased down to -2.5 they are simply too good a value to pass up as the spoke on the mini-teaser wheel.

 

TEASER:  Green Bay -1.5 with Minnesota -2.5 — Risking $240. to win $200.

Green Bay is another attractive leg of the Wong teaser.  Admittedly, this second consecutive home team for the 2-0 Packers looks like a possible letdown spot.  There’s always such a danger.  But Green Bay’s defense has been stellar the first two games and gets an opponent that shows serious offensive inconsistency.  Denver has scored just 30 points in two games.  QB Flacco has not been anywhere near the Super Bowl-calibre player of six years ago and there’s valid concern he’s not turning this offense around.  Kudos to head coach Vic Fangio for going for the win last week (2-pt conversion) which showed real guts.  But that opening home loss has to be tough to shake given the Broncos now face a much better QB threat, a defense perhaps as good, and a road game where the home-field advantage is certainly a factor.  Packers are very attractive here as the play, teased down and laying less than a FG.

 

TEASER:  Tampa Bay -.5 with Minnestora -2.5 — Risking $240. to win $200.

This is more of an “against” the NY Giants play than a confidence wager on Tampa Bay.  At first glance, the Bucs shouldn’t be laying -6.5 to anyone.  However, they do enter this game with some decided advantages.  First, they get 10-days to prepare and come off a huge confidence-building victory last Thursday night versus a division rival.  Moreover, Bucs defense which was expected to stink this year has played outstanding in the first two games.  Now, Tampa Bay faces an anemic NY Giants offense which just benched longtime-starter Manning.  While that was the correct decision, that sets up the punchless Giants for a bad spot going on the road against a rested and confident foe.  I’m always nervous about backing QB Winston with my money.  Recall he single-handedly gift-wrapped a victory for the opponent in Week #1 with three horrendous turnovers.  Arians and Leftwich will keep Winston on a tighter leash here since it shouldn’t take a herculean effort to beat the floundering Giants.  Bucs allowing an impressive 304 YPG.  Giants defense allowing 445 YPG.  Daniel Jones is a rookie, drafted in April.  The Giants hoped he might be able to ride the bench and learn a few things before being thrown into the fire leading a bad offense with a porous offensive line.  It’s hard to imagine a worse spot for the visitor here.  Accordingly, the Bucs are being teased through some key numbers and laying just -.5 just need to win the game.  I’ll like that prospect.

 

Detroit + 6 vs. Philadelphia — Risking $330. to win $300.

This line looks a little high.  I love what I saw from the Eagles in the loss at Atlanta Sunday night.  Despite the defeat and pointspead loss, Philadelphia showed some real ability to overcome adversity, including several injuries at key positions.  Except for a fluke late 4th down catch and run for a TD by Julio Jones, the Eagles would have won.  So, why am I fading them this week?  Well, those injuries appear to linger and could be a factor this week.  The Eagles have been notoriously slow starters in the first two games, falling behind to Washington (at home!) 0-17 and being down by double-digits to Atlanta.  While QB Wentz has led this team to two impressive second-half rallies, something about the Eagles game preparation appears amiss.  Meanwhile, Detroit should be 2-0 at right now.  Coming off an impressive home dog win against the Chargers, the Lions were up by 18 points in the road opener and settled for a tie.  I’m wary of backing Matt Stafford, who never seems to perform well in these key games, but the Lions do have solid wideouts and can certainly score points.  I expect a close game where the +6 could be a factor.

 

Miami / Dallas Under 47.5 — Risking $330. to win $300.

By the same logic I bet the under in the NWE-MIA game last week, this looks to be a nearly identical situation.  That game should easily gone under the high number (48), but two defensive scores gave us a late scare.  Nonetheless, Miami’s silent offense won’t get any breaks this week playing a road game at Dallas, which also fields one of the league’s better defensive units.  We can’t possibly expect Miami to produce many points given the ineptitude we’ve witnessed in the first two games, which make the Dolphins appear epically bad.   That demands Dallas to score most of the points to make this game go over, which I don’t foresee happening.  Unlike New England, Dallas is more of a rushing team which will keep moving the ball and eat up lots of clock.  The Cowboys comfortably at 2-0 won’t need to get fancy here against an outmatched opponent.  Moreover, with a road game in the New Orleans Superdome next week on Sunday night, Dallas won’t need to show much or take many risks.  I’m looking for a workman’s approach by the Cowboys to this contest, getting the easy home win, and coming out injury-free for a much tougher stretch of games coming up.  Also a slight factor, we get the win on a key number (47).  Key numbers aren’t quite as significant in the last few years with rule changes.  But I still like every little edge.  I’m not a fan of QB Josh Rosen, who has looked completely lost as an NFL QB, dating back to games as a starter with the Cardinals last season.  This is probably a regression from Fitzpatrick, making the Dolphins prospects for points even bleaker.  Under looks like the play.

 

First Half:  Cincinnati + 3.5 vs. Buffalo (at -120) — Risking $180. to win $150.

Taking a small flyer on the painful-to-watch Bengals getting more than a FG on the road against the perfect 2-0 Bills, who I’m not convinced deserve to be laying this much chalk.  Bengals being thoroughly humiliated last week should inspire more focus and a better effort.  Buffalo’s offense isn’t in the class (yet) of a team that deserves to be favored by this number.  In fact, Buffalo could come into this game a little overconfident, in my view.  Cincinnati has lit up the yardage stats with 700 yards passing in two games.  Buffalo had the luxury of facing two of the most inept offenses in football and now arguably make a step up in class (hard to believe I just typed that referring to Cincinnati).  I also think there’s some added pressure on the Bills now that wasn’t there before.  I do like the road dog Bengals to cover the game.  But the even stronger wager is taking these live cats in the first half.

 

First Half:  Cleveland +1 vs. LA Rams — Risking $165. to win $150.

It’s tough for me to step onto the train tracks and bet against the Rams, who I respect in virtually all aspects of coaching and playmakers.  But this looks to be a real down spot for the road favorite.  LA Rams are certainly the superior team on paper.  However, this primetime game (Sunday night) is the first in Cleveland in a decade and following the Browns’ awful home opener, this game becomes a focal point for the franchise.  No doubt, the Browns will be fired up against a top-tier opponent.  They came out of the Jets’ game relatively unscathed.  LA Rams deserve to be favored and will likely win the game.  This offense will wear out any defense.  However, in the first 30 minutes, I expect the Browns to ride a wave of home emotion that keeps them close in this contest.  Getting +1 in the first half is certainly a promising value.

 

Washington +4.5 vs. Chicago — Risking $330. to win $300.

First Half:  Washington +2.5 — Risking $165. to win $150.

I have two wagers in the MNF game.  The Redskins are the play getting points in both the first half and the game.  Despite their 0-2 record, Washington has looked decent in their first two games — both against top-tier opponents (PHIL and DAL).  The offense has moved the ball and scored points.  There’s major concern about Washington’s porous defense, but they get a much softer foe here which has struggled badly to produce yards and points.  QB Trubisky shows no signs of maturing as an NFL starter despite being in his third year.  Reports are the Bears will “open up the playbook” in this game for the struggling QB, but in a road game on MNF that might not mean much.  I think Washington can get to the 20-point mark here, and should also be more aggressive on offense.  I’m not as convinced Chicago will suddenly shake off their offensive cobwebs and suddenly produce points.  I’m taking the dog with the points until I see Trubsiky can produce as a legitimate NFL starter.

 

Other Games and Thoughts:

I lean strongly to INDY -3 hosting ATL.  Frank Reich can flat out coach and Luckless offense led by QB Jacoby Brissett have played two strong games on the road.  They get a softer opponent here who has struggled badly on the road in recent years.  Despite ATL’s big win over PHILA on Sunday night, one could see the cracks in this team.  They simply aren’t very good.  QB Ryan continues making inexplicable downfield throws (recall his mindless int. early in 4th qtr into triple coverage last week that would have iced the victory).  Atlanta isn’t running the ball well, which is the Colts’ defensive weaknesss.  I’ll take a gutsy team overcoming adversity playing its home opener against a soft opponent and laying a reasonable number.  Keep in mind the Colts were projected as a playoff team this season (before Luck’s retirement).  The Falcons were not.  So, the Colts laying -3 still shows that Indy might not be getting the respect they deserve.  However, before boarding the Colts’ train, I want to see them one more week.  I had them in Week #1 and faded them in Week #2.  With more attractive wagers on the board, I’m taking a hard pass on this contest.

KC is laying -6 to -6.5 versus BALT.  That’s the correct line.  Remarkable that BALT is the NFL’s top-ranked offense at the moment, but that’s entirely due to facing a couple of weak defenses (MIA and ARZ).  They should regress some here in a tough environment where the Chiefs will be up for the first home game since last season’s AFC Championship.  Two 2-0 teams with exciting young QBs promises to be the week’s best game and perhaps most intriguing matchup.  I also liked what I saw from QB Jackson in this spot last season, where the Ravens didn’t win or cover but still showed they can bring it on the road against top competition.  Still, the Ravens have not really been tested yet.  KC has won two road games, both covers by double-digits.  This looks like a great game to be a spectator, but not a bettor.  Only lean is to Under 54.5 based on the prospect BALT will try to grind the clock with lots of running.  BALT can’t win a shootout with KC on the road, so they should dictate a slower-paced game.  Then, there’s certainly the prospect that the Ravens defense could slow down the Chiefs.  Under is the only attractive option for me.

NWE gets another softie this week hosting the helpless NYJ who are probably starting Richard Todd at QB.  Laying nearly 20 points with a game total around 43, it’s hard to predict what the Patriots will do.  They could win 55-3 or go through the motions and scrap out an ugly win but non-cover.  Jets have traditionally played Patriots tough, but that’s a bygone era now with new coaches and non-existent QB.  Given the Patriots’ stellar defensive play in first two games, it’s hard to see how NYJ score many points.  But I’ve given up trying to predict what secret motivations exist for head coach Belichick or what will be called from the Patriots’ thick playbook.  These two teams have played five straight unders.  Lean to the under again, but didn’t bet it this week because total declined 5 points from last week’s similar matchup (MIA-NWE).  Too much volatility for me to pull the trigger again, but seriously — how will the Jets score any points?

CAR is was laying -2 to ARZ, then we learned that struggling starting QB Newton is out, which swings the game line in the Cardinals’ favor, now laying -2.  Panthers are 0-2-0 ATS and SU through two games, which includes a -7-point differential.  Meanwhile, ARZ is are 2-0-0 ATS with a +4.0 differential against the spread.  Methinks this line might have adjusted just a little too much.  Panthers with 10-days prep time are a strong lean.  But I sure love the energy and coaching I’ve seen from the Cardinals sideline, so far.  Pass.

NOR is getting +4.5 at SEA.  Terrible spot for the Saints playing two tough opponents on the road, crippled by loss of future Hall of Famer Drew Brees.  Backup Bridgewater is experienced and should perform better this week with more prep time.  But SEA is always a tough place to play and I sure didn’t like seeing the Saints manhandled on both sides of the ball last week.  NOR defense does not look good.  Moreover, NOR is once again starting another season slowly (0-2 ATS).  It’s SEA or nothing here.  No opinion on the total which is now down to 44.5.

LAC are giving -3 to HOU.  Intriguing matchup between two 1-1 teams.  I can’t explain the LAC lifeless offensive effort last week at DET.  HOU also looked flat at home, despite the win over JAX.  Line looks about right.  Hard to see any edge here, although I considered taking Texans in 1H getting points.  Better options exist elsewhere so this is a pass.

Finally, SFO — darlings at 2-0 both ATS and SU face the league’s most disappointing team, which just lost their leader.  Roethlisberger gone for the season for Steelers.  I incorrectly lambasted 49ers as being a fraud last week and the went out and pasted the shit Bengals.  What impresses me most is SFO won two games on the road, which is never easy in the NFL.  I think SFO’s stadium and home field is a joke, but I’m slowly coming around to the 49ers being legit.  I’ll wait another week and watch to see how they respond to a desperate team with a new starter.  A critical must-win game here for PITT.  No bets for me on this one.

 

PICK THE WINNER CONTEST [NO POINTSPREAD] — $200 entry fee

Season Record To-Date:  21-12-1

Week #3 Picks:

CINCY over BUF

DAL over MIA

GREEN BAY over OAK

INDY over ATL

KC over BALT

NWE over NYJ

MINN over OAK

PHILA over DET

CAR over AZ

TB over NYG

HOU over LAC

SFO over PITT

SEA over NOR

CLE over LAR

WASH over CHI

 

BD /SM INVESTMENT GROUP [37 persons]

211. — David Heldar
100. — Steve Watanabe
1,000. — Peter Lucier
302. — Bruce Kramer
200. — Finbarr O’Mahony
100. — Howler
500. — Linda Keenan
100. — John Pickels
100. — Patrick Kirwan
300. — Sean McGuiness
252. — Jim Anderson
200. — Chad Holloway
500. — Eric Schneller
351. — Randy Collack
100. — David Lawless Lawful
1,000. — Paul Harris
51. — Dan Goldman
51. — Sharon Goldman
102. — Ken QB
102. — Chuck Weinstock
102. — Peter Taki Caldes
51. — Kenny Shei
51. — Jeff Dietch
128. — Kevin Un
22. — Becca
102. — Corey Imsdahl
102. — Don Bingo Reick
1,000. — Jeff Siegel (payment pending)
100. — Stephen Cohen (payment pending)
51.  — John Reed
51. — George Wattman
51. — Mickdog Patterson
100. — Larry Lubliner
100. — Guy Grizz Berentsen
100. — Edmund Hack
500. — Bob Feduniak
63. — John Reed

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NFL 2019: Week #2 Picks

 

 

Last week, the 2019 NFL Regular Season began with a small loss.  I posted 3 wins and 4 losses for a net loss of -$160.  Minimal harm done.  Let’s remember — the 21-week season including the playoffs is a marathon, not a sprint.

My private investment fund (BD /SM) closed with 37 brave souls who put in amounts ranging from just a few dollars up to $1,000 max.  My fund raised nearly $8,300 in all.  Look for the fund’s wagers to become increasingly aggressive once some early season data points have been established.

Once again, if you are involved, please do check your name and status at the end of this report and inform me of any errors.  I expect this will be the final tally on investment figures going forward.

Oh, and in case you missed the boat.  It sailed, man.  It’s cruising.  Go ahead and cap your games out of the newspaper or listen to PTI.  Poor things.  My people are on board.  First-class.  I take care of my people.  Remember this, next time.  You missed the Concorde and are stuck in the middle seat in coach on Spirit.  Hang in there.  I might toss you a lifeline if I feel charitable.  Let me generate some scrub before inviting more players onto my handicapping life raft.

Also, $200 of the fund has been put into a contest where the objective is to simply pick the game-winner (no points).  In Week #1, I went 10-5-1 — which is currently good for a middle-of-the-pack standing.  I’ll update our progress on that investment as the season continues.

Thanks again to each of you who invested in the fund.  Hang in there, it’s a long season ahead.  Hopefully, a profitable season, as well.

Live and learn, people.

Now, let’s move on to Week #2.

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2019 NFL WAGERING RECORD

Wins — Losses — Pushes          3 — 4 — 0

Starting Bankroll:   $ 8,296.

Current Bankroll:   $8,136.

Last Week’s Results:         3 — 4 — 0  (- $160.)

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Wagering $1,925. to win $1,700. on eight bets.

This Week’s Wagers:

First Half:  NY Giants + .5 (-120) vs. Buffalo — Laying $180. to win $150.

Comments:  NY Giants didn’t play a bad game, last week, a 35-17 loss to the Cowboys.  Dallas just might be among the NFC elites, right now.  Now at home facing a beatable opponent, look for the NY Giants give a better effort.  I think this line has over-reacted to last week’s results.  A few weeks ago, this line probably would have been NY Giants favored by 2.  While NY Giants have been a horrid team at home in recent years (both SU and ATS), I expect the opener to inspire a good effort.  Meanwhile, Buffalo had to rally late to win in this same stadium, last week against the hapless Jets.  This is a rare case of back-to-back road games in an away arena.  The Bills defense played exceptionally well, which is a legitimate concern in the game backing the Giants.  However, the Buffalo offense continues to be anemic.  Inconsistent QB Allen looked lost much of the first half and was responsible for four turnovers (two ints. and two fumbles) in the first half alone.  For some reason, Allen has shown a tendency to play much better in the second half.  These factors — Giants at home, getting a half-point with slightly elevated juice, a weak offensive opponent, and perhaps some extra motivation compels me to make a modest-sized wager on the G Men in the first half.  I don’t think the Bills should be laying points on the road to anyone (except perhaps Miami).  Let me put it another way — last week, Buffalo was down 16-3 entering the 4th quarter in this stadium against the lowly Jets, and yet they are laying points?  That’s ridiculous.

Tennessee – 3 (-120) vs. Indianapolis — Laying $300. to win $250.

Comments:  Several trends favor the underdog Colts in this game, who have won 6 of the last 7 meetings in Nashville.  However, with the Luck factor gone, all eyes point to replacement QB Brissett who admittedly played very well in last week’s loss (but cover) to the Chargers.  I see a tougher spot here for the visitor, making a second-straight road trip versus division opponent.  It’s also always tough to recover emotionally from OT losses and then have to travel again with less prep time.  Oddsmakers say these teams are rated as roughly equal in talent (home team usually gives -3, which is the game line), but I’m of the opinion the Titans still might be a bit undervalued.  Tennessee destroyed Cleveland last week, although they were certainly helped by a +3 turnover ratio in that game.  Tennessee continues to run the ball well, dating back to midseason 2018.  Titans have been one of the league’s best rushing attacks, led by RB Henry.  I expect they’ll enjoy some success against Colts defense that entered the season with concerns and gave up 30 points in the first week.  Titans will look to make a statement here in the home opener.  They’re 8-5-1 last few seasons at home ATS.  With a win here, Tennessee takes the early driver’s seat in the division.  One added intangible is some concern Indy placekicker Vinatieri is still his old self.  He missed three kicks last week (33, 46, and an XP), which merits a red flag.  Betting on teams with concerns in the kicking game is probably undervalued as a handicapping tool — it really should be taken into more consideration.  I like the Titans, which looks to be a well-rounded team, especially at home, to cover this number.

Cincinnati -1 (-110) vs. San Francisco — Laying $275. to win $250.

Comments:  49ers picked up an ugly false win last week.  They’re frauds.  They were trailing 7-6 at halftime to the Bucs and were outgained in yardage for the game.  The lifeless offense looked weak, even with QB Garoppolo healthy (just 255 yards of total offense).  Tampa’s QB basically gift-wrapped the game with three turnovers, including two interception returns for TDs.  Sorry, but San Franciso isn’t the caliber of a team to go on the road again and get another win, particularly since it appears the Bengals are getting slightly disrespected here.  Also important to note these aren’t close road games.  Both are though three time zones.  Cincy took Seattle down to the wire in a 21-20 loss in Seattle last week.  The big spark was the Bengals’ passing attack, which ran up nearly 400 yards, even with playmaker WR Green sidelined.  49ers will face a motivated team with a new coach in his first home game and won’t find it as easy as trying to defense Jameis Winston.  QB Dalton threw 51 passes last week, so it will be up to San Fran to shut down the receivers.  Betting the Bengals is often an exercise in faith if not futility, but seeing the noble effort last week and laying a very low number (-1) this seems like a gift.  I have to play the Bengals at this price.

Miami / New England UNDER 48.5 — Laying $275. to win $250.

Comments:  Many sharp bettors are on the big home dog Dolphins, and I certainly see that line of reasoning.  But I’m persuaded that the far better wager is the UNDER here, especially at this high number.  Miami, as the undisputed NFL’s worst team at the moment, shows little to no ability to score many points.  That brings to question how motivated the reigning Super Bowl champs will be to run up the score.  Given that new Miami Coach Flores was previously a defensive assistant to Bill Belichick (and was with Pats organization 15 years), it’s hard to see the Patriots running up the score and making a mockery of a division rival.  A hot and humid day, an opponent that’s clearly outclassed, and (oddly enough) Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB for the Dolphins —-who isn’t prone to rookie mistakes leading to easy points off turnovers—- is a perfect recipe for a “boring” low-scoring game.  31-10 looks about right.  But it also wouldn’t surprise me if the Dolphins were shut out in the game given how awesome New England is on the D dating back to last season.

Arizona / Baltimore UNDER 46.5 — Laying $275. to win $250.

Comments:  I have concerns so many handicappers are touting this as one of the best totals on the board.  As a contrarian, I tend to fade public (and even some expert expectation).  But too many factors weigh heavily here to discount the obvious, including a higher-than-average total, which compels us to play the under.  Arizona was horrid offensively for 3 quarters, last week.  Detroit’s defense was gassed by game’s end, and that’s when the home underdogs came to life.  I think some of what we saw in the epic comeback was misleading  That won’t happen here in Baltimore, a much tougher place to play, certainly for the inexperienced Cardinals.  It’s hard to say where Baltimore ranks defensively (yes, they are #1 after shutting down Miami — but that was Miami).  It looks to be another relatively easy task for this defense, facing a rookie QB and new head coach both making their road debut.  So, let’s assume the Cardinals won’t be lighting up the scoreboard.  Meanwhile, Baltimore’s laugher last week should probably be discarded.  This isn’t a 59-point offense.  This is more of a ground attack, short pass dunks, and a ball-control game plan that will be content with the home win.  I look for the Ravens to build a lead, sit on the ball, and walk away with a 26-13 type of win that goes under the number.

LA Rams – 2 (-110) vs. New Orleans — Laying $275. to win $250.

Comments:  New Orleans isn’t a good early-season team.  We saw this trend continue last week, as the favored Saints barely escaped with a win in a thrilling game.  Now, off a short prep week, New Orleans must travel west for an NFC title game re-match.  I might like the Saints were this game at home, especially given some revenge motivation after one of the worst non-calls of all time.  But New Orleans isn’t the same flashy high-scoring team when on the road.  We know the Rams can roll up points at home, and have shut down New Orleans in the past (credit Wade Phillips).  Saints lost six of last eight road openers; Rams have won both home openers in McVay era, decisively so — 46-9 and 34-0.  Rams are slightly more balanced in my estimation, especially on defense and with home field against an opponent they won’t take lightly, I look for the favorite to cover, especially given New Orleans history of starting slow early in the season.

Atlanta + 1.5 (-110) vs. Philadelphia — Laying $165. to win $150.

First Half:  Atlanta +.5 (-120) vs. Philadelphia — Laying $180. to win $150.

Comments:  Two wagers on the contest — one for the game and another for the first half.  It’s painful to take real money and bet it on the Falcons, right now.  This team looked horrid in the opener at Minnesota.  I can’t make any case for the Falcons statistically speaking, but this team still has plenty of talented veterans, a coach who knows how to win, and certainly — added motivation this week in the home opener.  Seems like a critical game already for Atlanta.  Meanwhile, Philadelphia looked totally lost for 35 minutes last week (down 0-17 to Washington) before coming to life and nearly covering.  That “win” was rather unimpressive considering how mismatched the opponent was at +10.  The Eagles don’t appear to be anywhere near the elites of the league, just 18 months after their Super Bowl win.  But, they’re still favored here because (I presume) many bettors are overreacting to the Falcons’ really bad performance last week in which they were down 0-28 at one point.  I’m glad to fade this (hopefully mistaken) popular perception.  Moreover, the Eagles defense was ripped last week for several big plays.  One expects a talented Falcons offense at home in the dome to exploit some of those same weaknesses.  Oddly enough, Eagles have been a poor indoor turf team at just 5-9 ATS under HC Peterson.  Also, Atlanta has historically opened up well at home, winning 13 of last 15.  Falcons also 8-2 as a home dog in last ten games, which tells me these veterans rise to the occasion against top competition when in Atlanta  I’ll take the home dog in the game, as well as the half-point in the first half.

 

Other Games and Thoughts:

I was really tempted to play DET plus the points at home hosting the LAC, but a few things kept me off the game.  DET really looked poorly coached and conditioned down the stretch in last week’s tie.  That was an unforgivable collapse, and as tempting as it may be to bet the home dog, Detroit really is outclassed here.  LAC are aware they dodged a bullet last week.  But the Chargers also moved the ball well and should have no problem with this defense.  The play here is probably the OVER 47 if you must bet the game.  Two veteran QBs with good wideouts on the rubber grass.  Game could fly OVER.  But no action for me.

DAL laying -5.5 to WASH is worth a look, but I shy away from laying points on the road in division games.  DAL could come in overconfident, which happens with this inconsistent team under coach Garrett.  Credit K. Moore calling the plays on offense last week (new OC), which makes me think this team might step up.  But when you look at how WASH moved the ball in the loss/cover last week in Philadelphia, it’s certainly possible the ‘Skins give another solid effort.  Too many points to lay.  Should be -3.5. tops.

Hard to figure what state of mind HOU will be in after the crushing defeat in New Orleans Monday night.  But they face a team that should be shut down, with a backup QB (who looked fabulous statistically, 22/25 last week in loss to Kansas City).  Highly-coveted free agent signee QB Foles is out.  So. it’s doubtful JAX can produce enough offense to stay with HOU, but I’m not laying -9.5 points with any team that’s as inconsistent as HOU.  Let’s also remember JAX brings in a top defense.  KC rolls up points against everybody, so look for a better rebound effort.  It’s taking the dog or nothing here, for me.

PITT is laying -3.5 to SEA, which almost lost to Cincy at home last week.  PITT looked horrendous in loss to the Patriots.  There’s valid concern about these Steelers, who missed playoffs last season, might be taking a step downward.  So, this game should tell us a lot.  Many serious cappers are on PITT, but I think that faith is grounded too heavily on history.  I don’t see any spot where PITT enjoys definitive advantages, so I don’t want to lay points, especially since SEA is one of those teams capable of beating anybody.  Some analysts insist SEA defensive secondary could get shredded here (which game up 400 to Anthony Dalton in Week 1).  I’m just not convinced PITT has the talent anymore to flip a switch and beat well-coached opponents, especially given QB Russell’s skill set.  Pass.  But I do lean to OVER 47.

GB is laying -2.5 to -3 to rivals MINN.  Line looks about right.  I don’t have a good read on GB defense (was the opener just an aberration?) nor MINN offense, which uncharacteristically threw just 10 passes last week in domination over Atlanta.  The total at 43 does seem a little low, given QB Rodgers’ impressive numbers historically at home.  But that’s just a slight lean.

Many pro cappers are taking OAK this week, getting +7 in a divisional matchup against KC.  Horrible spot for Chiefs here, with the cross-country back-to-back games.  My guess is — OAK is the right side.  But I can’t step in front of the roaring KC money train right now.  Total at 53.5 seems a little high.  But given what we see from KC week in and out, this game could fly OVER.  Too much volatility for me to bet this one.

DEN is getting +1.5 to +2 at home hosting CHI.  Both offenses were steaming piles of puppy shit last week, so I’m tempted to play any side getting points.  But I’m going pass this temptation and invest my money elsewhere.  I suppose CHI with 3 extra days (played last Thursday) to prepare should enjoy some advantages.  Whichever offense struggles, you can pretty much say it’s — season over.  If Flacco bombs, he and Elway should get a 2 for 1 bus ticket out of Denver.

CLE is laying a whopping -6.5 points to NYJ, which lost another softie USC QB draftee (to mono, this week).  Poor NYJ played pretty well on defense last week, and that could keep them in the game.  Seems ridiculous for CLE to be laying this high number on road, after getting bounced like clowns at home in the humiliation of an opener.  I was tempted to play the home dog, but something tells me DC Gregg Williams is going to pay a price in this game for some off-the-field controversy regarding (now) Browns’ WR Beckham.  He’s been an overrated injury-prone act for a while, but could be the difference in a CLE win and over.  Normally, I don’t weigh these personality issues, but those of you who have followed the issue know it’s very volatile as a betting prop.  It’s probably NYJ and an UNDER here, but that’s an arm-twister.  Skipping this game for greener pastures elsewhere.  And since you are still reading, CLE is a sucker play here.  You drank Koolaid last week and got poisoned.  Why on earth would you do that again?  Sucker play = Cleveland.

 

PICK THE WINNER CONTEST [NO POINTSPREAD] — $200 entry fee

Season Record To-Date:  10-5-1

Week #2 Picks:

CAR over TB

CINCY over SFO

SDI over DET

GB over MIN

TEN over INDY

NWE over MIA

NYG over BUF

PIT over SEA

DAL over WASH

BAL over PHX

HOU over JAX

KC over OAK

CHI over DEN

LAR over NOR

ATL over PHIL

CLE over NYJ

 

BD /SM INVESTMENT GROUP [37 persons]

211. — David Heldar
100. — Steve Watanabe
1,000. — Peter Lucier
302. — Bruce Kramer
200. — Finbarr O’Mahony
100. — Howler
500. — Linda Keenan
100. — John Pickels
100. — Patrick Kirwan
300. — Sean McGuiness
252. — Jim Anderson
200. — Chad Holloway
500. — Eric Schneller
351. — Randy Collack
100. — David Lawless Lawful
1,000. — Paul Harris
51. — Dan Goldman
51. — Sharon Goldman
102. — Ken QB
102. — Chuck Weinstock
102. — Peter Taki Caldes
51. — Kenny Shei
51. — Jeff Dietch
128. — Kevin Un
22. — Becca
102. — Corey Imsdahl
102. — Don Bingo Reick
1,000. — Jeff Siegel (payment pending)
100. — Stephen Cohen (payment pending)
51.  — John Reed
51. — George Wattman
51. — Mickdog Patterson
100. — Larry Lubliner
100. — Guy Grizz Berentsen
100. — Edmund Hack
500. — Bob Feduniak
63. — John Reed

__________

 

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NFL 2019: Week #1 Picks

 

 

This year in my posts and wagers, I’m doing something different.  I’m controlling an “investment fund.”

Several thrillseeking investors bought into my NFL investment pool, which will be used as a wagering bankroll.  My investors posted amounts — ranging between $50 up to $1,000.  This grand sum will be my starting bankroll for the regular season, which will (hopefully) last all the way through the Super Bowl, and if past results are any indication of future returns, we might also realize a profit.

The name of my private investment group is BD/SM, which stands for Balls Deep / Sports Management.  Not for the timid.

As in years past, I’ll post my write-ups and recommendations here on this page, expected to be up at the site by late Saturday night.  To investors, fans, lurkers, and enemies alike, I suggest checking in at midnight Saturday night PST which will have my latest updates.  It’s also suggested you follow me on Facebook, where I might post some late plays, including second-half wagers.

IMPORTANT:  At the end of this report, please see the member consortium of the BD/SM investment group, along with the dollar amount(s) invested.  If you see errors or your name is not listed and should be, then please-mail me privately at — nolandalla@gmail.com

Moreover, I have invested $200 of the total fund into a season-long “pick the winner with no pointspread” contest which is run by someone many of us know based in Philadelphia.  I will post my plays in that contest in each weekly report so investors can check the progress of that speculative endeavor, as well.

************************************************

2019 NFL WAGERING RECORD

Wins — Losses — Pushes          0 — 0 — 0

Starting Bankroll:   TBD

Current Bankroll:   TBD

Last Week’s Results:          + /- $0

*************************************************

Unfortunately, an injury affects the betting action this week.  Not with the players.  But with me.  Last weekend, I lost the use of my left hand which is now engulfed in a cast.  So, I’m typing this report with one hand — not easy for someone who does lots of writing.  My point in telling you this — is not to gain sympathy — but to convey that this will be a somewhat abbreviated report.  I normally handicap every game in full, in writing.  That won’t be as easy for the next week, or two without the use of half my fingers on the keys.  So, please don’t think I’m cutting corners in today’s report.  Here we go:  Wagering $800 to win $700 in seven bets.

This Week’s Wagers:

Atlanta +3.5 at Minnesota (at -110) — Laying $110 to win $100

Comments:  Several trends favor Minnesota as a home favorite here, including Vikings’ strong ATS record at home combined with Atlanta’s stinky recent road history.  However, Falcons might be the better team at the moment, certainly true on offense.  Falcons will get to play 12 of 16 games inside a dome this season, which plays to the experience of their skill positions and sets them up for favorable advantages given their strong history indoors.  I also like QB Ryan over QB Cousins, even though both very posted similar stats last season.  Gamebreaker WR Jones is expected to start according to late reports, so that likely explains the line drop (in some spots) from +4 down to +3.5  I think Jones even at 80 percent is well worth the half point, even around those sensitive key numbers in the 3-4 range.  In what looks to be a close matchup on paper and in coaching, I’ll take the hook on the 3 and grab the points.  Key in this game will be Atlanta running the ball.  Rushing “attack” was dreadful last year (ranked 29th) due in part to injuries.  Falcons now come into the season fully healthy with five first-round draft picks on OL, which tells me this unit should show improvement to go with a strong passing game.  Vikings also have a league-high 12 rookies on their roster, including a few new starters.  Look for the experienced Falcons to stick with the home favorites for 60 minutes and get the road cover, if not the outright upset win.

Buffalo +3 at NY Jets (at -120) — Laying $120 to win $100

Comments:  This looks to be a pick ’em game in talent, with the customary +3 points given to the home team.  However, Buffalo destroyed NY Jets at home last season (one of only two road wins), which I think gives the young Bills some confidence that this is a division opponent they can beat.  Sometimes, outmatched teams don’t give the full effort when a loss seems imminent, but Buffalo and NY Jets certainly understand this game could set the direction for the season and show who is most likely (if anyone) to challenge New England’s divisional dominance.  I like Buffalo for a few reasons — namely QB Allen’s scrambling ability combined with some questions about NY Jets defense and secondary under (another) new DC, this time, Gregg Williams who seems to be with a new team every year.  Week #1 divisional underdogs are an impressive 11-4-2 the last four seasons, which bodes well for the visitor.  NY Jets are 0-4-1 last five homes games.  New coach Adam Gase was 0-3-1 ATS when coaching against Bills with Miami.  I also like RB McCoy being cut from the Buffalo roster, who was arguably the least effective, highest-paid RB in the league.  Both teams should be interesting to watch.  I’ll take the FG and lay double juice to -120.

Miami +7 vs. Baltimore (at -120) — Laying $120 to win $100 

Comments:  Why the hell is Baltimore laying a touchdown on the road to anyone?  This team has major uncertainties on offense, especially at QB.  I’ve seen QB Jackson ranked as low as dead last among NFL starters.  While I don’t share the level of deep pessimism, the Ravens are still a one-dimensional team.  Ravens wideouts are among the league’s weakest.  However, Baltimore has relied on a heavy rushing game, including Jackson’s legs.  Miami’s few strengths include the pass defense so look for Baltimore to keep it on the ground.  I think this plays into a low-scoring game where points could be at a premium.  So, the +7 looks like a gift.  Valid concerns about what shape Miami will be in, which is in a complete rebuilding phase with new coaches in every area.  Moreover, Miami starter might be the weakest QB in the NFL (poor leader, weak arm, no mobility — other than that, he’s terrific!).  Fynny thing is, I could be talking about either Fitzpatrick or Rosen here.  I’m counting on the home humidity, some genuine energy in Miami for the first time in a while, and perhaps some Baltimore mistakes to keep the Dolphins in this game.  Taking yet another dog.

Tampa Bay -1 vs. San Francisco (at -110) — Laying $110 to win $100

This is more of an anti-San Francisco play than anything else.  First, QB Garoppolo hasn’t started a meaningful game in like….forever.  He hasn’t taken a snap since 2017 when all the games were pretty much against bad teams when coaches were playing for draft order.  This is a weak team, unproven in virtually every area.  The offensive line is average, at best.  Defense doesn’t pressure — this unit had just six (SIX!) takeaways in 16 games last season, worst of any team in 18 years.  You don’t fix those glaring problems with a 27-year-old highly paid QB making just his 11th NFL start.   Oh, and the 49ers get to travel 3,500 miles for an early start in the Florida heat.  Tampa Bay meanwhile, gets the favorable home spot, lays a small number, gets DT Suh on the defensive front as the top free-agent signing, and (I believe) has much better coaching.  Bruce Arians taking this job was a great move for the franchise.  I also like DC Todd Bowles,  who I expect will get more out of that unit than many people are expecting.  Reasonable number to lay here, even with QB Winston’s storied troubles as a pro.  This might be a better system for him, certainly with better coaches, and he faces one of the least intimidating defenses in the NFL in his home opener.  Taking the small home favorite.

Tennessee +5.5 vs. Cleveland (at -110) — Laying $110 to win $100

Another big overreaction to hype.  I love fading hype.  Sure, Cleveland will be a fun team to watch this season.  They are finally heading in the right direction and may have a winning season.  But that’s not what handicapping is all about.  We want to go contrary to those perceptions and take value —  and in this matchup, the points are clearly the more attractive team.  Titans are coming off the better season at 9-7 to Browns 7-8-1.  Titans also closed down the stretch with the NFL’s top running game — RB Henry 135 YPG last six games.  Tennessee should be able to run the ball here and keep this within the margin.  Admittedly, I’m always wary about backing any QB Mariota-led team on the road (he’s dismal on the road versus home).  But Mariota won’t be asked to win the game alone.  I think people expect too much out of the Browns, especially this early.  Tennessee has a better than average defense, a really good secondary, and asking the Browns to cover what seems to be a big number is a prospect I’ll gladly fade.  Taking the Titans and looking for the outright upset.

Detroit -2.5 vs. Arizona (at -120) — Laying $120 to win $100

Rare for me to bet a road favorite, but this is a good spot for the far-more experienced team and roster of key starters.  This is a rebuilding phase for Cardinals and like Miami, they will have home-field and fresh coaching staff, with a new starting QB.  Thing was, Miami was getting +7.  Here, we will lay less than a field goal.  New Cardinal coach Kingsbury is expected to produce fireworks on offense reminiscent from his Texas Tech days, and he might do that in time.  But in their first game with so many question marks, I don’t think we’ll see that for some time.  Cardinals are also missing their best defensive player Peterson due to suspension fo 6 games, plus two starting CBs, which will allow an experienced Lions team some opportunities.  QB Stafford has reliable receiving weapons with WR Golladay, WR Jones and WR Amendola along with top draft pick TE Hockenson.  Detroit won in this identical spot last year, winning by two touchdowns.  Probably just as much a mismatch at this stage of the season.  Hard to write this sentence and keep a straight face but Lions have an advantage at virtually every aspect of this matchup.

Indianapolis +6.5 at LA Chargers (at -110) — Laying  $110 to win $100

I’m taking the underdogs with the major chip on their shoulders after (now retired) Luck’s disappearing act, which now leaves QB Brissett in charge and under center. Brissett quietly improved and was already widely considered a more than capable backup.  Now thrust into a system that was projected as a playoff contender, I look for a major statement game bere from a very well-coached team, playing an opponent with minimal home support and a reputation for being soft.  Chargers are plagued with some key injuries, a RB holdout, and perhaps a spot where they might be a bit overconfident taking on a team perceived as significantly weaker with change at QB.  Thanks to Stephen Nover for also pointing out San Diego-Carson-Los Angeles has lost three straight season openers.   Colts were getting +7, which was a major gift.  I missed that generous number, but still think the dogs are worth betting at +6.5  Solid live dog here I think capable of winning outright.

 

Other Games and Thoughts:

PHILA laying -10 to WASH looks about right.  Wanted to bet WASH in some early games, people forgetting Redskins won 7 games last season and collapsed down the stretch because they had 25 players on IR at seasons end, most of any team, and were basically starting Billy Kilmer at QB.   Love WASH to make move about midseason as a strong play on team.  But not this week, with awful QB Keenum getting the start.  Highly favored Eagles should be able to name the score and make a statement here.  I just won’t lay double digits in road division games.

JAX getting generous +3.5 is clearly the right side of the KC matchup.  Way too much is expected of KC after a marvelous 2018 season.  However, their porous defense is still a serious concern.  KC did outscore just about everyone last season and they could post similar numbers.  But here on the road, in the Florida heat, facing NFL’s best defense statistically, and then LAYING MORE THAN A FG is just a horrible spot for the favorite.  Anyone who bet JAX at this number can be tattoed instantly as a sucker.  You might not like JAX, but KC is the worst bet on the board this week.  For idiots only.

LAR laying -1 to -2 on the road (lots of road favorites!) is another trap game.  Not sure about CAR coming off a down year.  Here’s an ideal statement game for the underdog.  Just wish I was getting a little more points-wise with the Panthers.  So, this ranks as a pass.  LAR looked pretty woeful in their two road games at the end of last season.  Let’s see if that decline was just due to step up in class.  Interesting game to watch, but I want no part of betting it.

I really do like CINCY plus 9.5 at SEA.  Bengals collapsed down the stretch last season after starting out 5-2.  Same lineup of mediocrity returns, but there’s enough talent to cover this high number.  Seattle overachieved las season given the roster of players.  Now, more is expected.  Accordingly, I think this line is a little high.  I’d go with a 7.5.  Probably should bet this game, but with other more attractive options will pass.  Something to be said for not having to sweat QB Antony Dalton to cover the spread for us.

I love DAL to roll over the weak NYG, but a few trends keep me off this game — divisional dogs in Week #1, NYG-DAL games often being close, DAL relatively poor home ATS record.  DAL should dominate both sides of the line of scrimmage.  Hard to see where NYG have any advantages.  I considered teasing DAL down to -1.  That’s probably the optimal play if you wager on this game.  Nover likes the UNDER here, which I agree is probably best total on the board.

NWE plays PIT.  I don’t have money on it, so I don’t care.  Disgusted with that prick WR A  Brown getting signed by Patriots.  Disgusting.  Hope his season ends on first play.

HOU at NOR…before wagering on Saints and laying points remember that NOR often starts season dreadfully slow.  Don’t know if it’s the complexity of offense, or the heat, or whatever, but NOR is a terrible Sept. team as a favorite.  Might be wise to play visiting HOU here to keep it closer than a TD.

I’m likely playing DEN on MNF and will post late action on Facebook.  OAK looks to be a fade with all the distractions and mess of a team, right now.  DEN gets Flacco under center for the first time.  Hard to see how this will turn out, but the first week might be a good spot to bet the slightly-favored Broncos.  Another division road favorite.  Have to be careful with these.  If it’s -2 surely a bet, but if this moves to -3, will pass.

 

PICK THE WINNER CONTEST [NO POINTSPREAD] — $200 entry fee

Season Record To-Date:  0-0-0

Week #1 Picks:

Green Bay over Chicago

Tennessee over Cleveland

Baltimore over Miami

Atlanta over Minnesota

Buffalo over NY Jets

Philadelphia over Washington

LA Rams over Carolina

Jacksonville over Kansas City

Indianapolis over San Diego

Seattle over Cincinnati

Dallas over NY Giants

Detroit over Phoenix

Tampa over San Francisco

New England over Pittsburgh

New Orleans over Houston

Denver over Oakland

 

BD /SM INVESTMENT GROUP [29 persons]

200. — David Heldar
100. — Steve Watanabe
1,000. — Peter Lucier
302. — Bruce Kramer
200. — Finbarr O’Mahony
100. — Howler
500. — Linda Keenan
100. — John Pickels (payment pending)
100. — Patrick Kirwan
300. — Sean McGuiness
252. — Jim Anderson
200. — Chad Holloway
500. — Eric Schneller
351. — Randy Collack
100. — David Lawless Lawful
1,000. — Paul Harris
51. — Dan Goldman
51. — Sharon Goldman
102. — Ken QB
102. — Chuck Weinstock
102. — Peter Taki Caldes
51. — Kenny Shei
51. — Jeff Dietch
128. — Kevin Un
22. — Becca
102. — Corey Imsdahl
102. — Don Bingo Reick
1,000. — Jeff Siegel (payment pending)
51. — George Wattman

__________

 

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