2024 NFL Game Write Ups and Picks: Week 2
NOTE:
TO READ THIS WEEK’S FULL REPORT WITH GAME ANALYSIS AND PICKS….
WEEK 2 BETTING CONCEPT: TIMING IS EVERYTHING
Most bettors think of “futures” as bets made prior to the season starting. However, in many cases and at most sites, bettors can wager on a futures prospect at any time, even after the season starts.
I never thought much about the value of “timing” a futures bet (emphasis mine — on “timing”). Most bettors place a bet when it’s convenient and then ride out the wager for the rest of the season.
Enter Denny Axel into the discussion.
Denny and I go back 30 years. I say this with 100 percent sincerity when I write Denny is the best futures handicapper I’ve ever seen and have ever known. I won’t get into it here. But he’s a longterm winner. And, his analysis is so on the mark and out of the mainstream that it makes perfect since to coattail his plays. Many seasons, I’ve had a phone in my hand walking through a casino and got a tip from Denny and ran to the betting window and made a wager. Don’t worry, I’m not selling anything here and Denny isn’t a tout. He’s just a great futures capper.
Case in point: Denny shared this on Thursday. I’ll let the test speak for itself:
Okay, it’s time for my 1st futures bet for this NFL season and I like it a lot. Go ahead and bet $1000 on the Ravens to win their division at +120. A win here will return $2200. At this point in time it looks to me to be the best bet out there. I was gonna tout this last week before they played KC, but I figured they would lose that game and we could then get a better number this week. They got that game out of the way and didn’t lose too much ground in their division. The other 3 teams in their division will each have to play KC later on. I’m actually a little surprised we didn’t have to lay -110 or -120. I think we will probably have at least a half dozen of these kind of bets by the end of the year and then we can tally things up and hopefully have another successful season. For those of you that are going to do this, I would advise doing it before their next game, as the Ravens will probably beat the raiders pretty handle and that +120 could go to -120 or even worse. As stated before, time is always of the essence when it comes to futures bets. The Ravens look to me to easily be the class of this division. Good luck to the defenses that watch Jackson go one direction and Henry go the other direction and try to contain them.
Note: the best number I could find was +110, but that’s still a good edge so long as it’s plus money. I love the fact Denny picks the Ravens to win the division but then *waited* until Week 2 to get the best number. To me, that’s a pro. Showing patience and even expecting a loss. It’s something I need to work on which is handicapping the FULL SPECTRUM.
We don’t know yet if Baltimore wins the division and the futures bet wins. We’ll see. What matters is — we’re getting a great number and the evidence for betting Baltimore is convincing. I would only add that Cleveland is unlikely to win the division, Cincinnati has obvious problems, and Pittsburgh didn’t show much last week despite their win (they failed to score a TD).
Baltimore is the best team in this division, and the rest of the field is probably not as strong as feared (especially Cincinnati). This is a smart bet, and the timing is perfect.
Read More
