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Posted by on Jan 18, 2013 in Blog, Sports Betting | 0 comments

NFL Plays — Championship Games

Snow Game

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD

93 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 15.6 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $11,560. —– (+$1,560)

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  12-7-0

 

Comments:  Last week’s Atlanta non-cover was one of the toughest beats of the season.  One of the most difficult things to do is get back on the same team again that blew it so badly the week before.  I normally would take Atlanta here at +3.5 as the attractive home dog.  But I’ve lost all confidence in the Falcons, particularly head coach Mike Smith’s ability to manage a big game.  Accordingly, this will be a no play for me.  In the other championship game, I would take Baltimore plus the points, but the value is now gone with the line drop all the way from +9.5 to +7.5.  No play.  I have just one totals wager for the championship games.

 

BALTIMORE / NEW ENGLAND UNDER 51 (-110) — for 7 units  <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>

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Posted by on Jan 12, 2013 in Blog, Sports Betting | 0 comments

NFL Picks — Divisional Round Playoffs

 Atlanta Falcons

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD

92 WINS – 85 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 25.6 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $12,560.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  12-6-0

Comments:  3-1 last week, although I was very lucky to win the Cincinnati first-half wager.  Moving on to the next round, I’m making three plays this week.  I will also play Houston is the line hits +10.  But this will not be counted in the results at the site (current line is New England -9.5).

THIS WEEK’S WAGERS:

ATLANTA -2.5 vs. SEATTLE (-120) — for 8 units  <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>

Line opened as low as -1 in some places, and quickly went up to -2.  It’s -2.5 with heavy juice and money is still flowing in on the Falcons.  Highly advisable to bet this soon, before it hits -3 by gametime.  This wager is purely situational.  Even a line of -3 is suggesting these are two equal teams (three points for home field advantage).  As impressive as Seattle has been the last two months, the better overall team is still Atlanta.  Several things favor them this week, which in my view should have this line closer to -4.  I don’t recall any conference top seed game to be lined this low as a home favorite in a divisional playoff game.  The week’s rest doesn’t always help teams, but I think it favors the Falcons strongly as the team probably need a break to refocus.  Seattle also comes in with a terrible travel disadvantage, making three cross country flights in eight days.  That’s not always a backbreaker — but going East is usually tougher for the road team.  Seattle also enters some unfamilair territory here, going inside the dome where home crowd will help Falcons.  I also like Atlanta’s pass-heavy attack, which should be successful at home.  Falcons have been a bust in the playoffs in recent years, but they have usually had to face the conference’s best team, and therefore struggled.  They’re not inferior in this spot and with everyone in Atlanta talking about this game being the most important of the Mike Smith era, I think his team rises to the occasion.  The wear and tear of the Washington game last week is going to weigh in on the Seahawks as his game progresses and given a generously low number, I think we have to take the rested, superior favorite at what appears to be a bargain price. 

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Posted by on Jan 4, 2013 in Blog, Sports Betting | 0 comments

NFL Picks — First Round Playoffs

Betting on Football

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD

89 WINS – 84 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 19.25 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $11,925.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  12-5-0

 

Comments:  Nice to end the regular season on a positive note, going 6-1.  Let’s hope this continues on into the playoffs.

THIS WEEK’S WAGERS:

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Posted by on Dec 30, 2012 in Sports Betting | 1 comment

NFL MVP — Adrian Peterson

2012 NFL MVP

 

Adrian Peterson deserves to win this year’s MVP award.

Yes — Peyton Manning enjoyed an outstanding season.  Robert Griffin III led his team to a remarkable turnaround and instant respectability.  Andrew Luck surpassed even the highest expectations as a first-round draft choice.  And, Aaron Rogers performed admirably given all the challenges to his team.

But Adrian Peterson is in a class all his own.

Consider that a year ago today, Peterson underwent major ACL surgery — which is normally a career ending injury for running backs.  Recovering from a serious knee injury would be difficult for any professional athlete.  But for an NFL running back with lots of mileage on the body, it’s unprecedented.  Had Peterson simply completed this season healthy and contributed to his team’s success with a respectable year, that alone would have been an impressive feat.

But Peterson did far more than that.

He just posted the second-best season for a running back in NFL history.  Consider all the great running backs of the past 80 years — the Jim Browns, the Gayle Sayers, the O.J. Simpsons, the Walter Paytons, the Barry Sanders, the Emmit Smiths, and so many others.

Peterson just eclipsed them all.  He finished the season with 2,097 yards — including 199 yards today against division rival Green Bay.  I would also argue that staying healthy in today’s NFL is tougher than ever before.  Now, defenses are bigger, faster, and stronger than in years past.  The human body simply isn’t built to withstand bone crushing tackles and years of abuse on these horrible artificial turf fields.

Moreover, it’s not like Peterson enjoys running behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines.  At best, those who lead block are average.  In fact, the Minnesota Vikings have been a laughing stock for the past decade.  Peterson has been the lone bright spot for a dismal franchise that seemed to be going absolutely nowhere and which was picked by most to finish dead last in the division.

Peterson has carried his team to an astounding turnaround, a 10-6 win-loss record, and a playoff birth — 365 days after he was laying on an operating table beneath a surgical scalpel wondering if his NFL career was over.

SMU and Los Angeles Rams great Eric Dickerson still holds the 16-game season record for most rushing yardage.  And no running back ever had a season quite like O.J. Simpson back in 1973 (which was 14 games — so in all fairness, Simpson still stands as the gold standard).  But as someone who has been watching NFL games for four decades, Adrian Peterson’s feat this season was as remarkable an accomplishment as I have ever seen in sports.

Adrian Peterson deserves the NFL Most Valuable Player honor more than any other.  Period.

 

 

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Posted by on Dec 29, 2012 in Blog, Sports Betting | 0 comments

NFL Plays: Week 17

YA Tittle Photo

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD

83 WINS – 83 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (- 12.05 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $8,795.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  11-5-0

Comments:  Let’s just say that I know exactly how football legend Y.A. Title feels (see photo above).  My handicapping record has been reduced to the results one would expect from flipping a coin.  Indeed, this has been one of the strangest seasons I’ve ever experienced as a sports bettor.  The good — I’ve been in the black since Week 2, at least until last Sunday.  The season’s high point was after Week 11, when I was ahead +78 units.  The bad — I’m on brutal cold streak.  Now, after a terrible two-month run and losing an average of 20 units a week, I need to close with a few winners to lock up a season in the black.  Here it goes….

THIS WEEK’S WAGERS:

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