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Posted by on Sep 15, 2018 in Blog, Book Reviews, Essays, Sports Betting | 0 comments

Matt Lessinger’s Golovkin-Alvarez Fight Picks [Saturday, Sept. 15th]

 

 

Note:  Those who visit my site regularly know the name — Matt Lessinger.  He shares his picks on boxing, MMA, and other special events on occasion, and I’m glad to pass them on to readers when he’s in a generous mood:

READ PREVIOUS LESSINGER GRAMMY PICKS/WRITE-UPS HERE:

2015 GRAMMYS

2016 GRAMMYS

MORE INFO ON LESSINGER

 

Here are Lessinger’s thoughts on tonight’s Golovkin -Alvarez fight, which he shared in an e-mail with me.  As always, Lessinger gave me permission to share this publicly:

 

Tonight is the big rematch for the middleweight boxing title.
I will try to keep this relatively short and unbiased.  Golovkin appeared to win their first fight, but it ended in a draw.  Even though he should have earned the decision, a draw was not a travesty of a result in any way.  The part that was hard for people (including myself) to accept was that Adelaide Byrd scored it 118-110 for Alvarez, which was absurd. 
Boxing has a way of righting the wrongs done to fighters.  Even though it cannot be quantified, there is an unmistakable pattern.  When fighters are the victims of bad decisions in major fights (see Pernell Whitaker, Lennox Lewis) they are given favorable judging in the bout that follows.
When fighters turn out to be drug cheats or cheaters of any kind in major fights (see Manny Pacquiao, Erik Morales, Antonio Margarito) they are judged unfavorably in the fight that follows.  In this fight, you have BOTH.  You have the victim of a bad decision (Golovkin) who fought someone that turned out to be using a banned substance (Alvarez). 
The three judges of this fight (Moretti, Feldman, Weisfeld) are as old-school as you can find, and they can be counted on to enforce the unwritten rules of boxing.  Unless Alvarez puts in such a dominating performance that he cannot be denied the decision (highly unlikely) then these judges will find a way to give the fight to Golovkin to right the wrongs that were done to him.  I’m sorry if that sounds too much like a conspiracy theory, but that’s just what boxing does. 
As for a knockout, Golovkin has one of the best chins that boxing has ever seen.  He has never been knocked down in over 300 amateur and pro fights.  If this ends up being the first time, more power to Alvarez, but you’d be foolish to bet on it.  There is a slightly better chance that Golovkin stops Alvarez, who has been down before, but he has also never been stopped in any amateur or pro fight, so when you take that combined with Golovkin’s advancing age (36), everything points towards this fight going the distance.  It will likely be another close fight, but this time Golovkin gets the decision.
MY BETS:
OVER 11.5 rounds (-235)
GOLOVKIN to win (-155) (draw is a push)
GOLOVKIN by decision or technical decision (+190) (Best value bet)
DRAW (+1800) (small hedge just in case) 
Good luck to everyone this weekend.
Cheers,
Matt L

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