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Posted by on Nov 29, 2012 in Blog, Sports Betting | 0 comments

NFL Plays — Week 13 (Thursday Night Game)

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD

73 WINS – 60 LOSSES – 3 PUSHES —– (+ 59.85 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $15,985.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  9-3-0

 

I love tonight’s game.  This looks like the “Best Bet of the Week.”   See full write-up below.

 

ATLANTA -3.5 vs. NEW ORLEANS (-110) — for 7 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>

This is a puzzling spread for two teams that have put up vastly different results this season.  Atlanta is arguably the best team in the NFL at the moment, with a 10-1 SU record playing against a 5-6 SU team (worse ATS) that has been a huge disappointment.  Normally, a 10-1 team playing a team with a losing record would be lined at more than a touchdown.  Add three points for home field advantage, and this line should clearly be at or around the -7 mark.  Number is probably shaded downward due to New Orleans playing well historically versus Atlanta.  But this game has all the makings of a complete reversal of recent history.  Atlanta probably should have won the matchup at New Orleans three weeks ago.  The Falcons played one of their worst games of the season and nearly pulled out a victory in the closing seconds (first and goal at the Saints 3-yard line with a minute to go, and couldn’t score).  That sets up a nice revenge spot here, for the home team.  Moreover, this looks like a tougher travel spot than normal for the Saints, who have performed poorly on the road.  Three days off between games clearly favors a good home team off a road victory, versus a struggling team that might have given its best shot the previous week and could be spent.  That San Francisco game was a must-win for New Orleans, and I fail to see how the team can regroup on the road so quickly versus one of the NFL’s top teams.  Coaching, this is a complete mismatch — as Mike Smith is proven to be on a mission with his team, as opposed to Saints staff which has failed in every conceivable way this season.  I have no idea why this line is not at least -6 and perhaps -7.  Again, bettors are looking at New Orleans’ history versus Atlanta, but these two teams bear no resemblance to the contests that have been played in the past when Sean Payton was on the sidelines.  I’ll take a solid team playing great football at the moment in a revenge spot on a very short week of preparation which is laying no more than a standard toss up home-field number.  

 

LAST SUNDAY’S RESULTS:   4 wins and 6 losses and 1 push for a net loss of 16.0 units

CLEVELAND +1 vs. PITTSBURGH (-110) — for 4 units…..WINNER

NEW ORLEANS +1 vs. SAN FRANCISCO (-110) — for 4 units…..LOSER

BALTIMORE -1 vs. SAN DIEGO (-105) — for 2 units…..WINNER

NEW ORLEANS / SAN FRANCISCO OVER 48.5 (-110) — for 3 units…..WINNER

GREEN BAY / NY GIANTS OVER 51 (-110) — for 3 units…..LOSER

1Q:  CAROLINA / PHILADELPHIA OVER 7 (-130) — for 5 units…..WINNER

1Q:  MIAMI / SEATTLE OVER 7 (-125) — for 5 units…..LOSER

1Q:  ST. LOUIS / ARIZONA OVER 7 (EVEN) — for 5 units….PUSH

1Q:  ST. LOUIS + .5 vs. ARIZONA (-150) — for 4 units…..LOSER

1Q:  GREEN BAY + .5 vs. NY GIANTS (-135) — for 3 units…..LOSER

1Q:  OAKLAND + 3 vs. CINCINNATI (-120) — for 5 units…..LOSER

 

LAST THURSDAY’S RESULTS:  2 wins and 1 loss and a net gain of 7.7 units

WASHINGTON +3.5 vs. DALLAS (-110) — for 5 units — WINNER

NEW ENGLAND/NY JETS UNDER 48 (-110) — for 3 units — LOSER

6-POINT TEASER:  WASHINGTON +9.5 / NEW ENGLAND -1 (-110) — for 6 units — WINNER

 

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Posted by on Nov 24, 2012 in Blog, Sports Betting | 0 comments

NFL Plays — Week 12

Bad Weather Football

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD

69 WINS – 54 LOSSES – 2 PUSHES —– (+ 75.85 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $17,585.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  9-3-0

 

On Thursday, I posted two wins and one loss, for a net gain of +7.7 units.  Once again, it’s a positive sign we’re winning the large-unit games.  

Last week’s record was 5 wins and 4 losses.  Most important, the net gain was +9.3 units.  

If there’s one thing I’ve improved this season over the last many years I’ve been posting plays at various public forums (which started in 1997), it’s been with weighing picks and better money management.  

It took me many many years to realize that flat betting gives way too much away when there are stronger than average plays on the board.  Moreover, a pick may be worth playing, but for a smaller amount based on the line or total.  Hence, I strongly recommend varying your bet sizes.  I have more work to do and much more to learn in this area.  But I do want to say that if you only get half your picks right, but weigh the games accurately, you might still be able to produce a nice profit.

Here are Sunday’s plays (11 wagers).

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Posted by on Nov 21, 2012 in Blog, Sports Betting | 1 comment

NFL Plays — Week 12 (Thanksgiving Day Only)

 

Billy Kilmer 1960's

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD

67 WINS – 53 LOSSES – 2 PUSHES —– (+ 68.55 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $16,855.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  9-3-0

 

 

Last week’s record was 5 wins and 4 losses.  Most important, the net gain was +9.3 units.  

If there’s one thing I’ve improved this season over the last many years I’ve been posting plays at various public forums (which started in 1997), it’s been with weighing picks and better money management.  

It took me many many years to realize that flat betting gives way too much away when there are stronger than average plays on the board.  Moreover, a pick may be worth playing, but for a smaller amount based on the line or total.  Hence, I strongly recommend varying your bet sizes.  I have more work to do and much more to learn in this area.  But I do want to say that if you only get half your picks right, but weigh the games accurately, you might still be able to produce a nice profit.

I’m making three wagers on Thanksgiving Day games.  Sunday’s plays will be released at the customary time.

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Posted by on Nov 17, 2012 in Blog, Sports Betting | 2 comments

NFL Plays — Week 11

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD

62 WINS – 49 LOSSES – 2 PUSHES —– (+ 59.25 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $15,925.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  8-3-0

It’s hard to top last week’s results, posting a public record of 11 wins and 3 losses–  for a monster net win of +52.3 units.  However, this is no time to celebrate or relax.  Trying to stay in the zone with what will hopefully be another profitable week.

Many plays this week are not so much BET ON games as BET AGAINST games.  Some teams are starting to implode and those are teams we want to fade this time of year, especially if not laying too many points.  That’s the case on a few games this week noted below.

Making nine wagers this week.

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Posted by on Nov 15, 2012 in Blog, Sports Betting | 0 comments

NFL Plays — Week 11 (Early Release)

Drew Brees in 2011

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD

62 WINS – 49 LOSSES – 2 PUSHES —– (+ 59.25 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $15,925.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  8-3-0

This is a rare mid-week release due to Thursday night’s NFL game between Miami and Buffalo.

Note:  All wagers are for amusement-purposes only.  I bear no responsibility for those who may decide to follow my plays.

 

NFL WEEK 11 PLAYS (THURSDAY-RELATED ONLY — SUNDAY’S FULL SLATE OF PLAYS TO COME)

 

6-POINT TEASER:  MIAMI +8.5 / DENVER -1.5 (-110) — for 5 units

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