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Posted by on Dec 14, 2022 in Blog, Sports Betting | 0 comments

2022 NFL Analysis and Picks (Week 15)

 

This week’s “Best Seat in the House” contributor is Rory Lebeaux, from Metairie, LA.  He’s a longtime New Orleans Saints season-ticket holder, with pretty good seats.  Unfortunately, he’s stuck watching the Saints this season.  Thanks, Rory!

I’ve attended a dozen games in the Superdome in the past 40 years, the first being in 1980 (St. Louis Cardinals at New Orleans Saints).  It’s always been my favorite place to watch a football game.  New Orleans is the ultimate tailgate city (okay, maybe Green Bay too — a bucket list NFL city for me).

In previous weeks posted here at my site, many friends and colleagues —– including Scott Byron (New York Giants-CLICK HERE), Bruce Kramer (Philadelphia Eagles-CLICK HERE), Noah Carbone (Miami Dolphins-CLICK HERE), Jason March (Las Vegas Raiders-CLICK HERE), Linda Kenney Baden/Dr. Michael Baden (New York Jets-CLICK HERE), Bob Jones (NFL London at Wembley Stadium-CLICK HERE), Judd Greenagel (Minnesota Vikings-CLICK HERE), Chad Halloway (Chicago Bears-CLICK HERE), Joseph Freda (New England Patriots-CLICK HERE), Michael Minkoff (Las Vegas Raiders Television Studio-CLICK HERE), and Jennifer Thrill Mrkvicka (Seattle Seahaks-CLICK HERE)—– each shared their seat views.  Photos were posted here prior to the weekly write-ups.

Thanks to everyone for sending these and sharing.

Now, let’s get to some football handicapping.

Last week’s results:  6-7 (-380)

Teaser–Las Vegas Raiders -1 / Cincinnati Bengals even (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200 ….. LOST
Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. WON
Prop–Mike White OVER 240.5 passing yards (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200 ….. WON
NY Giants–Team Total First Half OVER 9.5 (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200 ….. LOST
Detroit Lions -2 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. WON
Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. LOST
Prop-Mills Davis Interceptions OVER .5 (-215) — Risking $430 to win $200 ….. WON
Denver Broncos +9.5 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. WON
Denver–First Half +5.5 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. LOST
Carolina-Team Total First Half OVER 9.5 (-130) — Risking $260 to win $200 ….. WON
Miami Dolphins -3 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 …. LOST
Prop-Kyle Murray OVER 35.5 rushing yards (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200 ….. LOST
Arizona-Team Total OVER 20.5 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. LOST

Now, it’s on to Week 15.

 

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NFL WAGERING RECORD (2022)
112 Wins
77 Losses
0 Pushes
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $15,588.
Net Gain/Loss: + $5,588.
Last Week’s Results: 6 wins – 7 losses (- $370.)
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Atlanta at New Orleans
Line: Saints -4
O/U: 43.5

Analysis: Despite both teams being a flaming dumpster fire this season, it’s possible that either could still win the awful NFC South and make the playoffs. This surreal reality seems downright criminal since neither one of these teams is anywhere close to playoff caliber in either talent or performance. Atlanta has a slight advantage in the shit slide and is only one game behind the first-place Buccaneers. A divisional road win this week keeps the pressure on and sets up a possible showdown in Week 18 for the division crown when Atlanta will be hosting Tampa Bay. So, it’s odd that the Falcons decided this week to yank starting QB Marcus Mariota’s chain and kick him down the stairs in favor of an unproven rookie QB who has never taken an NFL snap. Mariota is trash and deserves to be run out of the league based on his third blown opportunity and a lackluster career stoked with mediocrity. However, that said, it’s highly unusual for any coach or team to change generals on the eve of a major battle. Perhaps, the Purdy showcase in San Francisco motivated the dice roll in Atlanta, which (who knows?) might turn out to be a great move. Actually, I agree with the decision because even under a best-case scenario where the Falcons do make the playoffs, they’d be bounced out of the postseason faster than a rubber ball on crack with Mariota and his slinky arm making throws in January. So, why not just say “fuck it,” and let Despond Ridder have a shot in the homestretch? Ballsy, but smart, in my opinion.  Too bad the Saints haven’t come to their senses yet, continuing to ride the dead horsemeat with Andy Dalton (what were the Saints even thinking signing this worn-out retread?). Gun to my head, I’d probably take Atlanta plus the points here. With the Saints, we pretty much know what to expect week-to-week, a sluggish underachieving team that lost four of its last five games, scoring just 13 PPG in that span. Indeed, I’d take +4 in a division game normally, but then I’ve been burned so many times by the Falcons that I can’t place my hand into the fire again. Atlanta is 1-5 on the road this season, which is another problem. That loss to Pittsburgh last week at home was a killer so far as burning my confidence. So, I cannot bet on the Falcons, even when I perceive there’s line value.  You can criticize that decision, and rightly so.  But I refuse to let this team fuck me again.

The Pick: No Action.

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(Note:  I had a notepad glitch today.  So, instead — here’s the short version of the picks.  I’ll see if I can recover the previous writeups and post later).

Dallas at Jacksonville
Analysis: No Action. I don’t trust the Cowboys from December onward. I’m not laying points with a road favorite here, especially after seeing Dallas shit the bed last week at home against awful Houston.

Detroit Lions +.5 (half point) vs. NY Jets (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200
Analysis: I’ll stay on the Lions’ victory and cover train, which has cashed in six straight. Much credit to Mike White for his performance last week, but the Lions appear to be a good bet down the stretch for the rest of the season (Zach Wilson starting for Jets)..

Kansas City / Houston UNDER 49 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200
Analysis: Lots of O/U points for a Texans’ game, since the offense is anemic. Chiefs have underperformed in big-spread games this season (recall LA Rams and Tennessee). I say this falls someplace in the low- to mid-40s.

Chicago Bears Team Total First-Half OVER 9.5 (-125) — Risking $250 to win $200
Analysis: The Bears might end up losing by double digits, but they’re far more competitive with QB Justin Fields starting and should score some points. I say Chicago breaks the 9.5 team total in the first half

Carolina Panthers -3 vs. Pittsburgh (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200
Analysis: Pittsburgh is starting Mitch Trubisky this week (Pickett is out). That’s all I need to hear, especially given that Carolina is underrated performance-wise and is 6-2 ATS since their midseason coaching change.

Arizona at Denver
Analysis: No Action. Denver’s outstanding defense is the only positive thing on the field in this game (Wilson and Murray are both out, and both coaches might be axed at season’s end).

New England +1.5 First-Half (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200
Analysis: It’s painful to watch the Patriots’ offense, at times. But, they remain very much alive in the playoff race, are coming off a win, and face a weak defense this week. I’ll take points in the first half, given this appears to be a total crap shoot.

Prop: Tom Brady OVER 26.5 pass completions (-105) — Risking $210 to win $200
Analysis: I should probably fade Tampa Bay in this game since they are one of the NFL’s most disappointing teams. However, even when the Bucs struggle, Brady somehow gets plenty of pass completions. This seems counter-intuitive, but the stats don’t lie. Brady’s pass completions since Oct. 1st read as follows: 34-36-29-22-36-26-32-25-35-39-31. That’s 9/11 to the OVER 26.5, and the two UNDERs fell just short. Getting any value with an OVER prop connected to Brady is rare, but I don’t see the Bucs changing the system, especially since they could be playing again from behind as they so often have done this season.

Tennessee at LA Chargers
Analysis: No Action.

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NY Giants at Washington
Line: Commanders -4.5
O/U: 40.5

Analysis: Here’s an unusual scheduling anomaly with back-to-back games versus the same opponent for Washington, with a bye in between. Two weeks ago, these two NFC East rivals played a 20-20 tie in the Meadowlands. Now, they’re back in the Maryland suburbs for the rematch. This game probably means more to the Giants, who have been reeling lately and need a win to regain some lost confidence. After the Giants’ surprising 6-1 start, they’ve faded in the second half of the season and are 1-4-1 in their last six games, including a really bad showing last week vs. Philadelphia. A few more losses, and it’s possible for either Seattle or Detroit to catch them in the wild card hunt. Meanwhile, while NY has been fading, Washington has flipped the script with the Giants, starting off slow, but then going a blistering 6-1-1 both SU and ATS in their last 8 games. A win here pretty much locks up a wild card spot and continues the Commanders’ rising momentum. QB Daniel Jones rightfully gets much of the blame for the Giants’ anemic offense (#27th in passing and #23rd overall). But here’s a surprising stat: Jones is 15-5 ATS as a road dog, It’s been the collapse of the Big Blue rushing attack which has been the bigger problem: In their four games, RB Barkley has been held to just 152 yards on 55 carries, which is a dismal sub-3.0 YPC. The Giants’ defense gave up plenty of rushing yards on the other side of the ball, also — 160-189-165-253 rushing yards in that same span. This points to a justification for Washington being favored, despite these teams’ identical 7-5-1 records. Still, I’m having trouble finding any value in Washington laying this many points. 3….? Sure. 3.5….? Maybe. 4…..? I don’t know. 4.5…..? This is crazy. I don’t like bucking recent trends, but this is one of those cases of betting NUMBERS rather than teams or players. Sure, Washington looks like the superior team. But there’s lots of equal space between these two teams — evidenced by the tie in their last game. The Giants are 7-2 ATS in the last nine visits to Washington.. So, in a game likely to be close and perhaps decided by a late FG, I’m grabbing +4.5

The Pick: New York Giants +4.5 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200

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LA Rams at Green Bay
Line: Packers -7
O/U: 39.5

Analysis: When the NFL schedule came out last Spring, everyone looked to this late-season game as one of the premier matchups of the season. Now, it looks like a mud pig. Neither team is going anywhere, except home after the new year. The Rams (4-9) have suffered more injuries that any team in recent memory. It’s hard to blame the Rams for the steep decline after winning the Super Bowl. No roster can take as many hits as the Rams and remain viable as a championship contender. Despite their problems, the Rams enjoyed one of the most thrilling moments of the season at home last week when Baker Mayfield flew into LAX on his own dime, joined the Rams two days before game time, and then rallied his new team for an epic come-from-behind victory. Credit the Rams for playing their asses off, despite so many voids at skill positions. They haven’t given up — upsetting the Raiders, nearly beating the Seahawks, and playing a respectable game at Kansas City. The reason the Rams continue being *in* most games is their defense, ranked #13 in the NFL. That might not sound impressive, but it is since the offense doesn’t win much time of possession of field position battles, which places extra pressure on the D side. Based on these factors, it’s certainly possible for the Rams to go into Green Bay and make things difficult for an inconsistent Packers team that’s struggled all season long. / There’s probably some value in betting the Rams on the moneyline at +260. If the Packers continue to struggle, the points may not matter. While taking +7 is tempting (and perhaps the right side), if we expect the Rams’ defense to play well and/or Baker Mayfield to do enough to keep his new team in the game, we might as well take the added value with the moneyline. As for the bye week (for the Packers), that might be offset by the Rams having played the previous Thursday. So, they should come into the game nearly as rested. / Weather in Green Bay is expected to be in the teens near gametime. Aaron Rodgers has played well in the cold, but that was when the Packers were one of the NFL’s best teams. That’s no longer the case. Also, we can’t discount Mayfield’s experience in the cold, playing for four seasons in Cleveland. I don’t like the game, but I’ll go ahead and make two small wagers on the Rams to stay within the margin and possibly pull off the upset. My money will be on the Rams +7 and a small bet on the Rams moneyline.

The Picks: LA Rams +7 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 / LA Rams Moneyline (+260) — Risking $100 to win $260

 

Note:  This is my final updated report for Week 15.

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[SAT] Indianapolis at Minnesota
Line: Vikings -3.5
O/U: 47.5

Analysis: Here’s the first of three games played on Saturday. I’m surprised the spread is only -3.5 (down from -4 early in the week). Minnesota is clearly the Rodney Daingerfield of the NFL — they get no respect. Yeah, there are valid concerns when betting on the Vikings. It’s hard to take Minnesota seriously as a legitimate Super Bowl contender, given they hardly ever dominate their opponents and frequently win games by small margins (6-6-1 ATS).  But the biggest problem with Minnesota is a horrible pass defense that ranks #32 and dead last in the NFL.  However, the surprising Vikings are 10-3 SU this season and will win the NFC North in a cakewalk.  / Accordingly, several few factors will compel me to bet on Minnesota -3.5 this week: (1) Coming off a loss, Minnesota should be motivated by a rebound mindset.  There was no shame in losing a close divisional game at Detroit last week.  And now, they face a much softer opponent.  (2) Credit the Vikings for being 6-1 at home this season, with the lone loss being a blowout defeat to Dallas.  The Colts are a team Minnesota should defeat.  Assuming we agree Detroit is a decent team, the Vikings have faced six straight tough opponents–now, they step down in class.  (3) So, Minnesota’s pass defense sucks; well, that would be problematic if Indianapolis had a potent passing attack, but they don’t.  In fact, the Colts are well below average and rank 31st in scoring (ahead of only Denver).  (4) The Colts have lost 6 of their last 7 games and have scored fewer than 20 points in all eight of their losses this season.  Their only win was versus the inconsistent embarrassment known as the Raiders.  (5) Finally, the Vikings are playing mistake-free football during most weeks. That’s not the case with the Colts, who ranked #31st in takeaways on defense and are the NFL’s worst team in turnover differential.  So, as long as the Vikings don’t implode, it will be tough to see the Colts keeping the score within a FG, let alone pulling off the upset. Indy is 5-8 ATS this season, but does have slim playoff hopes, which might keep them fighting in this game.  But Minnesota’s weapons, with perhaps the best 1-2 duo in receivers (Jefferson and Thielen), should allow the Vikings to get on the scoreboard numerous time.  The Colts could still be feeling the sting of giving up 54 points in their last game (at Dallas).  I don’t know how a bad team recovers from that in yet another road game versus an explosive playoff-bound opponent.

The Pick:  Minnesota Vikings -3.5 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. LOST   

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[SAT] Baltimore at Cleveland 
Line: Browns -2.5
O/U: 38

Analysis: Last week, I badly underestimated the Ravens (9-4) and especially backup QB Tyler Huntley, who went into Pittsburgh and drilled the Steelers in an outright win and a cover as a small dog. It wasn’t that impressive on the scoreboard, but Baltimore won that game characteristic of what we used to associate with Baltimore — a tough team that doesn’t win fancy, but just wears down opponents and wins the battle in the trenches.  That’s probably the game plan again, especially since Baltimore has injuries to both of its QBs.  Huntley reportedly cleared concussion protocol (Friday night).  Still, head coach John Harbaugh hasn’t yet named a starter.  Whatever happens with the Ravens’ situation pregame, I think it’s clear we can expect heavy running combined with defensive pressure that’s certainly capable of getting another “W.”  Aside from the hiccup at Jacksonville a few weeks ago, the Ravens’ defense has been outstanding — allowing just 14-9-3-13 in the other four games.  / Weather in Cleveland, expected to be around 30, with possible snow, and steady winds (15 mph, with gusts to 35 mph), should hurt both passing games.  The UNDER 38 is tempting in this matchup, but the stronger bet is probably on a player prop. / After missing 6 weeks, RB J.K. Dobbins returned from injury last week and played a terrific game.  He took 15 carries and gained 120 yards, good for 8.0 YPC.  That was versus a pretty solid Steelers’ defense, and he’ll get an even easier test this week versus the NFL’s #22-ranked rushing defense.  With QBs still uncertain for the Ravens, bad weather, a weak rushing defense, and Dobbins coming off a great performance (but not so many carries he’s worn down), we can probably expect him to repeat similar numbers.  Incredibly, Dobbin’s TOTAL RUSHING YARDS O/U is only 47.5.  Perhaps this player has simply stayed under the radar and his injury skewed the market.  Nonetheless, the Ravens are likely to feed him the ball, and won’t want Huntley (or Jackson) taking the ball with their QB situation so fragile — meaning more carries for Dobbins.  The Browns have allowed 129 YPG, and those numbers were skewed by some horrible rushing teams in the mix (Houston, Tampa Bay, LA Chargers).

The Pick: Prop–J.K. Dobbins OVER 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200 ….. WON

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[SAT]  Miami at Buffalo
Line: Bills -7
O/U: 43

Analysis: As I wrote last week, the first metric in any December game in Buffalo is the weather, so let’s start there. Snow. Snow. Snow. That’s the Saturday forecast. Snow doesn’t necessarily translate into a low-scoring game. Plenty of snowy games have sailed over in the past, partially due to slippery fields (which can favor receivers). What we look at closely are wind and visibility. The total opened at 44 and has dropped to 43. By game time, assuming it’s still coming down, this number could drop further. I think there’s still some value in UNDER 43, since we’re capturing a key number in totals betting. So, if you bet this, do it fast. It’s unlikely the total rises. Even with ideal conditions, the Bills have been a solid UNDER bet this season — going 10-3 to the low side of the number, averaging -4.6 points fewer per game than projected. Miami has a reputation as a high-scoring team, but is only 6-7 this season to the OVER, so betting these two teams blindly in all the UNDERs nets a 17-9 result. / I admit to being fearful about betting an UNDER given what I’ve seen from the Miami defense in recent weeks. That unit looks horrible. Fortunately, the soft Miami defense is offset by the near-total collapse of Miami’s once-potent offense. It’s a mystery as to what happened to one of the NFL’s highest-scoring teams, which has scored just 34 points in its last 10 quarters — 3.4 points per qtr. Now, moving outdoors into bad weather conditions, it’s hard to see Miami’s slumping offense suddenly coming to life. / Miami looks like a horrible bet given history: They’re 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last ten games at Orchard Park. Miami is also a dreadful away team, 0-5-1 ATS in their last six away games. A third straight road game here, all against winning teams, also hurts the Dolphins, who probably know they’re wild-card bound, and will be happy to get back to Miami and close out the season with two of their final three games at home. I’m not sure how much the “revenge” motive plays here, but Buffalo was upset by Miami earlier in the season in one of the most lopsided nonsensical outcomes in recent memory–Miami won 21-19 despite being outgained in yardage 495-212. Be careful about betting Buffalo, however. Bills are 1-5-1 ATS since their bye week. My final thought is — weather should be a factor and most certainly should hurt Miami, which hasn’t been scoring many points anyway under good conditions. The total seems a little high given Buffalo’s strong UNDER trends. Division games tend to be lower-scoring anyway, which also helps.

The Pick: Miami / Buffalo UNDER 43 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 …. 

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[TNF]  San Francisco at Seattle
Line: 49ers -3.5
O/U: 43.5

Analysis: One of the adjustments I’m making in my handicapping is to give more weight to recent performance, while at the same time not overreacting to just 1 or 2 games. Admittedly, this is an imperfect science. San Francisco is the NFL’s hottest team at the moment. The 49ers boast the #1-ranked defense and a revamped offense sparked by third-string rookie QB Brock Purdy, who has obliterated all expectations. It’s remarkable the 49ers lost their 1-2 quarterbacks but now actually could be even *better* than they were before those injuries. Add acquisition RB Christian McCaffery to their offense, and now San Francisco looks really balanced and deep. They’ve also won six straight games and have a chance to basically lock up the NFC West with a win versus the only team that can possibly catch them, which is Seattle. / As for the Seahawks, this is circle-the-wagons time, and an all-hands-on-deck game they absolutely must win. After starting out 6-2 as one of the league’s biggest surprises, Seattle has since lost 3 of 4 games and failed to cover in four straight. Their only win was an ugly last-minute victory vs. the woefully-depleted LA Rams, who came all too close to upsetting the Seahawks as 6-point underdogs. Let’s credit underrated QB Geno Smith, who continues to enjoy an MVP-level season (71 pct. pass completions; 25 TDs, 8 INTs, 106 QB rating), who is keeping Seattle’s faint playoff hopes alive. The trouble is, watching Seattle’s defense is a horror show. They can’t stop anybody. Steamrolled by the Raiders for nearly 600 yards three weeks ago, then nearly beaten by the Rams, next Seattle surrendered 30 points to Carolina last week. Seattle ranks #30th defensively in PPG. The 49ers scored 72 points in their last two games and now face a far easier opponent. / A few things will keep me off of laying points with San Francisco. First, I don’t like the extra half-point. Laying 3.5 is a dealbreaker for me, especially in a divisional matchup. Next, give Purdy his rightful due, but this is his first road start. Seattle can be an intimidating place for young QBs, so that’s another uncertainty. Purdy is also listed as “questionable” in the injury report (bruised ribs). Yes, he’ll play. However, this just adds to question marks about San Francisco going on the road and covering more than a FG as a favorite. / All these factors will keep me off the side and total but will also compel me to make two wagers–both connected to Seattle enjoying some offensive success in a time of desperation. First, I’ll go OVER on Seattle’s team total in the first half, which is 9.5 points (-115). The Seahawks face the top defense in football, but also move the ball well and are among the best first-half teams at scoring points, averaging 13.9 PPG1H. I say they hit 10+ here, at home. I’ll also go OVER on Geno Smith’s pass completions at 21.5 (-115), who has proven himself as an accurate passer. Other reasons include Seattle not being a good rushing team, and probably will abandon the run facing the toughest run defense in NFL (#1 against the run, but #12 against the pass). So, with Smith completing 71 percent of his passes this year, look for the Seahawks to pass early and often. Moreover, Seattle throws a lot of short passes, so that bumps up his completion numbers. Even in SFO’s blowout win vs. Tampa Bay last week, the opposing QB Tom Brady completed 34 passes. That’s 34-18-18-30-21-25 completions to opposing QBs in the 49ers’ last 6 games, and this week, Smith is enjoying as good a season as anyone the 49ers have faced other (than Patrick Mahomes). Smith’s completions are 21-28-27-23-26-23 in his last six games. Assuming the Seahawks are trailing in this game (the line suggests that happening), especially late, that further boosts the chances of more completions for the team playing catch up.

The Picks: Seattle Team Total in First Half OVER 9.5 (-115) …. LOST — Risking $230 to win $200 / Geno Smith OVER 21.5 Pass Completions (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200 ….. WON

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