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Posted by on Oct 7, 2022 in Blog, Sports Betting | 1 comment

2022 NFL Analysis and Picks — Final Report (Week 5)

 

 

The “best seat in the house” award goes to Noah Carbone for his view a few weeks ago in Miami.  Here’s his view from Dolphins-Bills game last week.  In previous weeks, I posted Scott Byron and Bruce Kramer pics, which were lousy end-zone seats in New York and Philadelphia.  Noah Carbone laughed, announced, “raise,” and sent me this pic/view.

As for my analysis and picks, I hope you enjoy the weekly write-ups.  Continuing with this week’s analysis and predictions, two weeks, I ended up with another solid effort with 8 wins and 3 losses, for a nice win of $930.  Last week I visited my mother in Dallas and took a break from betting action.

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:  

No Plays.

Now, it’s on to NFL Week 5.

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2022 NFL WAGERING RECORD

32  Wins

19  Losses

0  Pushes 

Starting Bankroll:     $10,000.

Current Bankroll:     $12,450.

Net Gain/Loss:     + $2,450.     

Last Week’s Results:     Off / No Plays

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Note:  I’ll make a video on Friday and post it here (likely Friday night).  Check back if you prefer to listen to the analysis and picks.

Update:  Okay, so at the last minute while getting ready to film this, I changed my mind.  Instead of talking football, here’s a long narrated tour of the LV Strip on a Friday night.

 

 

 

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (Note: Early Game in London)
Giants +8 (-110) O41 (-110) +300
Packers -8 (-110) U41 (-110) -375
Analysis: Two 3-1 teams meet in London for a 6:30 am start (PDT). Remarkably, of all the years the NFL has scheduled games over in London, this marks the first time in more than 20 years that two teams with winning records will play across the pond. Both teams have struggled at times this season, especially on offense, despite winning records. Green Bay (2-2 ATS) stank in the opener and failed to cover laying -9 last week hosting New England with a backup QB. / Meanwhile, let’s credit the NY Giants for overachieving big-time and winning “ugly,” if there’s such a thing in the NFL. Green Bay is the obvious choice to win because Aaron Rodgers is the standout talent on the field, but can they cover such a high number? The Packers failed in a similar sport last week and I see nothing here facing the Giants that inspires added confidence. / Taking the Giants (3-1 ATS) plus the points would be probably the correct side under normal circumstances. Add in the uncertainties of travel, a foreign atmosphere, etc., and getting more than a touchdown is even more tempting. I would not play this if the game was played in Green Bay. The London factor and the fact the NY Giants appear to still be underrated by betting markets make me want to take the underdog with the points. / The problem here with making this bet is the Giants’ fragile quarterback situation, which was uncertain (as of midweek). Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor both suffered injuries in last week’s game. Neither QB is very good when 100 percent healthy, so I can’t imagine how bad the numbers can get if they have some kind of injury (note 71 passing yards for the Giants vs. Bears last week, and they won!).  / All of this is a long-winded lead into a strong lean on the UNDER, even at a low total of 41. The Giants have been an UNDER machine since mid-2020, going to the low 21-5-1 within that span. This week, they have major concerns with the passing game and are likely to run the ball even more heavily.  Green Bay has some offensive concerns, as well — scoring just 75 points in four games, averaging an ugly 18 PPG which ranks 23rd in the NFL. The UNDER is the pick.
My Pick: New York Giants-Green Bay Packers UNDER 41 — Risking $220 to win $200

 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Steelers +13.5 (-110) O46.5 (-110) +600
Bills -13.5 (-110) U46.5 (-110) -900
Analysis: What? Early in the week, Pittsburgh was getting +14.  Now, it’s down to +13.5.  Didn’t the Steelers beat the Bills outright in this same stadium last season? / Many trends favor the disrespected Steelers getting a shitload of points in this game, but most of that data is old. This isn’t the Ben Roethlisberger era anymore. Since their opening week upset at Cincy, Pittsburgh has looked dreadfully worse in each game and now the confidence might be melting from the Mike Tomlin sideline (who to his credit has never suffered a losing season–likely to happen now in 2022). Also, consider a crazy historical footnote that Pittsburgh has not been an underdog of this magnitude since 1969. In fact, the Steelers are the only team since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger to *never* be a 14-point (or higher) underdog. These are tough days for Steelers fans, and even worse times if you’re betting on Pittsburgh. / Let’s also acknowledge that Buffalo’s offense hasn’t looked very good the last two weeks, though the defense has been fine. They lost in Miami and came close to defeat last week at Baltimore. But the Bills are a very different team at home, often winning by blowing out bad teams. The Steelers now fit into that category. Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in their five games in Orchard Park. They smell blood here and should get an easy win. With Josh Allen under center, the Bills are 10-4-2 ATS as favorites of 7+ points, and he is 6-2-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite — so Buffalo likes rolling up points against bad teams.  / It’s rare for me to lay DDs in the NFL, but I’m tossing lots of chalk here. So long as the weather doesn’t take a strange turn in Buffalo this weekend (high winds, heavy rain), I think Buffalo rolls up the score after two lackluster offensive efforts and win the game by a large margin. IMPORTANT: Pass on -14. Play only a -13.5 with no weather factors.
My Pick: Buffalo Bills -13.5 — Laying $220 to win $200

 

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns
Chargers -2.5 (-120) O47.5 (-110) -145
Browns +2.5 (+100) U47.5 (-110) +120
Analysis: It’s tough to predict which two teams will show up. The Chargers at 2-2 have been a disappointment, especially on the defense which was supposed to be their biggest improvement. LA’s defense ranks 20th in the NFL in yards allowed, and that’s with Houston and Jacksonville on their early schedule. Just how much stock do we place in the Chargers’ easy win at Houston in Week 4 and might it be problematic in Week 5 to play a second-straight road game against a well-rested opponent? Cleveland has 10-days rest and remains at home, usually an attractive prospect for an underdog. However, the Browns are just 7-12 ATS at home under head coach Kevin Stefanski. After a patsy September schedule that included the awful Steelers, Jets, and Panthers (and the Falcons, marginal at best), this will be their toughest competition. / The Chargers might be worth a look laying -2.5. I’ll give this consideration nearing game time. But right now it ranks as a pass.
My Pick: No action.

 

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Bears +7.5 (-110) O44 (-110) +260
Vikings -7.5 (-110) U44 (-110) -350
Analysis: After shocking the Packers in Week 1 in an almost perfectly-played game, Minnesota has now failed to cover in 3 straight contests. One reason for the downturn is the Vikings’ defense ranks 27th in the NFL in total yards allowed. So, any output from the Bears’ anemic offense is likely to be met with marginal resistance. Moreover, if Chicago’s defense can slow down the Vikings’ occasionally explosive passing attack, they not only will cover — but could even win outright. / There’s nothing about the Vikings I like as a bettor, and much of my bias starts with no trust in Cousin Kirk’s quarterbacking or leadership. Asking Minnesota to cover more than a TD is a prospect I almost never want to touch. Minnesota is a woeful 7-13 ATS as a favorite since 2020, even further proof this team doesn’t cover against outclassed opposition. Add some valid concern about the Vikings’ coming off the London trip last week, and that makes handicapping this week’s game even more difficult.  Hence, this becomes a “bet Chicago or pass” decision. / What keeps me off the Bears is some equally stinky data. Chicago is just 4-12 ATS as a dog since the start of 2021. QB Justin Fields has spent more than a season now running for his life with a depleted offensive line with no skilled weapons to get the ball to and is a horrid 3-9 ATS as an underdog. The bears also have one of the worst passing games in recent memory–they’ve attempted only 67 passes overall in four games, the fewest by any NFL team in 39 years. Furthermore, I can’t possibly bet the Bears in a second straight road game after they got whacked last week by the Giants. I considered teasing the Vikings down to -1.5, which might be justifiable. But this team nearly lost to the Lions at home and probably should be 1-3. I have no trust in either team, so this is a pass.
My Pick: No action.

 

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots
Lions +3 (-115) O45.5 (-110) +145
Patriots -3 (-105) U45.5 (-110) -175
Analysis: Detroit is currently on one of the strangest runs in recent football memory. Their defense is all-time horribly bad, allowing an astounding 35 PPG in four games this season, which is a full touchdown worse than the 31st-ranked team. Yet, all the feisty Lions do is cover spreads (and lose). Detroit is 13-6 ATS as a dog under head coach Dan Campbell (including 11-2 ATS in the past 13 games as a dog). Detroit has also covered six straight road games, but it is 0-10-1 outright in its past 11 road games. What do we make of all this, just hold our noses and bet the Lions OVER every week? The trouble with that strategy is, the Patriots will be without QB Mac Jones once again, and they’ll likely call upon Bailey Zappe, who filled in for backup Brian Hoyer after he suffered an injury last week. Head coach Bill Belichick says he’s taking the quarterback position day by day, so he isn’t giving us a clue as to who might start. I’m not sure it really matters. / I have to take Detroit plus the FG under these unusual circumstances. The Lions have no trouble moving the ball and scoring points. And finally, the Lions face an offense that simply should not be an equal match. Getting points with a team that’s fighting in every game as the Lions have done is an attractive prospect. Give me Detroit, so long as I can get +3, and not +2.5. UPDATE:  Line is up to +3.5, so this is now an even stronger play.
My Pick: Detroit Lions +3 (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200

 

Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints
Seahawks +5.5 (-110) O46 (-110) +180
Saints -5.5 (-110) U46 (-110) -225
Analysis: I keep on looking for a reason why the Saints are laying this many points to the Seahawks. I just don’t get it. I must be missing something. Who can possibly bet on New Orleans right now? Their only win is an ugly Week 1 come-from-behind frantic victory (non-cover) against Atlanta, while they have dropped three straight games since. New Orleans has also been decimated by injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Floundering stepchild bust-out Andy Dalton started their Week 4 loss in London vs. Vikings in place of the “injured” Jameis Winston (yeah, right). / The home-field advantage isn’t what it used to be for the Saints. They’re 0-2 in the Superdome and have covered just 1 of their past 6 at home. Yes, sometimes a team is so desperate for a win that things come together with good coaching and extra motivation, but this doesn’t look like the opponent that rolls over and plays dead. / Just wow, let’s credit the 2-2 Seahawks whom nobody expected to be competitive. Seattle is 45-27-2 ATS as an underdog under head coach Pete Carroll, including 16-8-1 ATS in the past five seasons. So, he rises to the occasion against better competition. Let’s also hand it to much-maligned Geno Smith, who is a remarkable 23-15 ATS in his career, including 10-2 ATS in his last 12 starts, and 5-2 ATS with Seattle. / The Seahawks have shown a spark offensively over the past two games and despite that, they are still nearly a touchdown underdog going into New Orleans. Typically, early kickoffs are bad for west coast teams, but the Seahawks have been a rare exception to the data, winning 9 of their last 10 games in those situations, including this past Sunday’s win over the Lions. New Orleans also comes off a long roadie, at London. / I’ll repeat myself — “I keep on looking for a reason why the Saints are laying this many points to the Seahawks. I just don’t get it. I must be missing something.” Fuck it. Give me the Seahawks, in the first half and for the game.
My Picks: Seattle Seahawks +3.5 (First Half -120) — Risking $240 to win $200, Seattle Seahawks +5.5 (Full Game -110)) — Risking $220 to win $200

 

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Dolphins -3 (-115) O46 (-110) -175
Jets +3 (+105) U46 (-110) +145
Analysis: QB Tua Tagovailoa will be sidelined after suffering injuries in back-to-back weeks. That gives backup Teddy Bridgewater the job this week in a division road game at NYJ. Here’s a stat you won’t believe: Bridgewater is 42-21 ATS in his career (.667). That’s the best mark by ***any quarterback***(with at least 40 starts) in the Super Bowl era. I’m not sure there’s much of a dropoff with Bridgewater in this spot, as the Jets’ defense is vulnerable to the pass. / That said, the Jets at 2-2 are now more confident with QB prospect Zach Wilson healthy and starting again. He comes off a big win and the Jets could be dangerous home underdogs. Trouble is, Miami has dominated this series lately and the NJY have been dismal in divisional games in recent years. / Hence, I think the best bet here is the OVER 46. Both pass defenses are bad, as the Dolphins’ secondary has allowed 300 YPG through the air (31st in the NFL). The Jets have also thrown the ball more than any other team, averaging 48 passes per game. Look for Wilson to pass early and often and Bridgewater to continue outperforming expectations.
My Pick: Miami Dolphins-New York Jets OVER 46 — Risking $220 to win $200

 

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Falcons +9 (-110) O47 (-110) +310
Buccaneers -9 (-110) U47 (-110) -400
Analysis: Who would have guessed after a full month of games, the Falcons would be playing against the Bucs in a battle for first place? Both NFC South teams are 2-2. Betting markets obviously aren’t paying enough attention to the NFL’s only perfect team versus the spread this season (Atlanta is 4-0 against the number). Despite their offensive consistency (8th-best in scoring), the Falcons are still getting a whopping +9 points. Let’s also keep in mind that Atlanta has played four games–all decided by 4 points or less. / As for the Buccaneers, they’re coming off a shellacking by Kansas City. Atlanta won’t pose as many threats, of course, but the Falcons’ rushing offense has been among the league’s best, averaging 169 YPG (note: Atlanta lost RB Cordarrelle Patterson to the IR last week). Since the Falcons aren’t falling behind in games and can run the ball for four full quarters, this balance has helped them be more competitive than was expected. / From the way Tampa Bay has performed so far, there’s nothing to indicate a blowout happening. This season has been a mess for the Bucs’ inconsistent offense, largely due to injuries along the offensive line and at wide receiver. That’s made things uncharacteristically difficult for QB Tom Brady. Atlanta is 7-3-1 ATS on the road under head coach Arthur Smith.  I see a closer game than the spread indicates.
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons +9 — Risking $220 to win $200

 

Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders
Titans -1.5 (-110) O43 (-110) -130
Commanders +1.5 (-110) U43 (-110) +110
Analysis: I’ve called the Titans a fade this season, but to their credit, they now appear to have righted what was a sinking ship. Tennessee (2-2) gets about as soft an opponent as they come facing the woefully inept 1-3 Washington Commanders. Tennessee is a small favorite on the road against one of the worst teams in the NFL. I’ve also been highly critical of RB Derrick Henry for being soft, but in recent games, he’s looked like the dominant Henry of old, averaging 4.75 YPC. QB Ryan Tannehill has also stepped up his game in recent weeks. / Meanwhile, there’s nothing to like or trust about the dreadful Commanders in their last three games. Doubts about QB Carson Wentz are starting to brew again. In his last two games, Wentz has thrown for just 381 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs, while being sacked 11 times. Wentz should continue to feel the heat this week facing an above-average Titans’ D and very good pass rush. It hurts that Washington leads the NFL in sacks allowed. Head coach Ron Rivera (he’s not to blame for a dismal organization) may be on the hot seat, as well.  Someone needs to fire the owner. /  That said, there are games on the schedule where everything looks easy for the favorite, but then the spread doesn’t match up with the quality of teams and performances. This is such a game. Recall, the Titans were the AFC’s top seed last season, and may not be receiving the respect deserved. / I lean to Tennessee in this matchup but will pass because my gut instinct tells me this is one of the games where the Titans will mail it in (recall their loss to the Jets in a similar situation last year) and/or Washington circles the wagons and play their best game of the season. I’m not saying that will happen–it’s just one of those instincts I fear after handicapping games for so many years. Over the last three seasons, Tennessee is just 8-14 ATS as a favorite.
My Pick: No action.

 

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Texans +7 (-110) O43.5 (-110) +260
Jaguars -7 (-110) U43.5 (-110) -350
Analysis: Both teams are coming off their worst games of the season and hope to rebound this week in a divisional matchup.  Houston easily covered in their first three games and the Texans defense played well up, that is, until last week’s 10-point loss at home to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Jacksonville lost by 8 to the Eagles, the NFL’s only undefeated team. With one more win, Jacksonville not only moves into (at worst) a tie for first in the division, but it would also already match its victory total from all of last season. / The winless Texans present a great opportunity for the Jags–despite their inexplicable struggles against Houston over the years. The Texans have won only eight games since the start of 2020, with four of those wins against the Jags. Despite playing each other twice per season, Jacksonville has not beaten Houston since the 2017 season. Do these historical stats matter now? I’m not sure. Both teams are now so different than even a year or two ago. / We can also say Jacksonville has proven what they’re capable of doing when things go right–shutting out the Colts and destroying the Chargers in Weeks 2-3 when they outscored the opposition 66-10. / I’m tossing out last week’s loss to Philadelphia, which was nothing to be ashamed of, and predicting the much-improved Jags to get back on track this week against one of the league’s worst offenses. Coach Doug Pederson and QB Trevor Lawrence will continue to make strides each week and here’s a much softer opponent at home after facing two explosive offenses in the last two games against the Chargers and Eagles. Accordingly, I’ll tease the Jaguars down from -7 to -1 in the event Houston’s defense comes up big, which certainly could happen. Note that I’d lay -6.5 here if that was still available (it was, early in the week), but -7 is less appealing. I missed the early train.  Now, I’ll take JAX on a two-team 6-point teaser.
My Pick: TEASER: Jacksonville Jaguars -1 / San Francisco 49ers -.5 (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200

 

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers
49ers -6.5 (-110) O39.5 (-110) -275
Panthers +6.5 (-110) U39.5 (-110) +220
Analysis: The 1-3 Carolina Panthers are imploding and there are now compelling reasons to expect Matt Rhule will be the NFL’s first coaching casualty this season. QB Baker Mayfield was hoped by fans to be the team’s savior getting a desperately-needed career second chance with the Panthers, but he’s ranked among the league’s lowest-rated QBs. I do think Mayfield gets too much of the blame since this is a bad team overall. Yet, let’s also face the stark reality that he could be benched within another week or two.  This is a startling turnaround from preseason hopes (note to advertisers — quit giving fat endorsement contracts to unproven athletes….we were bombarded with Baker Mayfield ads for 2 years, with not even a sliver of credibility). / Now, here in Week 5, Rhule, Mayfield, and the Panthers get to face the NFL’s best defense. That should be special. I can’t fathom any scenario where Carolina’s offense suddenly comes to life. The 49ers could self-destruct, of course. Recall the Chicago loss in Week 1. Nevertheless, the 49ers now appear content with experienced but boring Garappolo under center, who doesn’t have to win games by himself most of the time and can simply let the defense and offensive balance overwhelm weaker opposition. / San Francisco comes off an impressive home win on MNF and there’s some chance they come in flat in a short week in a game with an early starting time (west coast team heading to the east coast). For this season, I’ll pass on laying nearly a touchdown and instead tease the 49ers on the Wong strategy. San Francisco simply needs to win the game teased down to minus a half-point.
My Pick: TEASER: Jacksonville Jaguars -1 / San Francisco 49ers -.5 (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200

 

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
Cowboys +5.5 (-110) O43 (-110) +200
Rams -5.5 (-110) U43 (-110) -250
Analysis: Despite Dallas’ surprising three-game win streak and LA Rams’ lackluster start to the season, the defending Super Bowl champs are still favored in this matchup. Not only are they favored, but it’s by a lot — minus 5.5 points. I just don’t get it. Scratching head here. The Rams come into Week 5 off a short week and a disastrous loss vs. rival SFO. The offense has struggled badly — ranking 30th in points and 28th in yards. Those numbers are an embarrassment. Even the Rams’ D, supposedly the strength of the team, has been average at best–ranking 19th in points and 14th in yards. So–what makes anyone take the Rams in this game and lay the points? …especially against a Dallas defense that’s statistically one of the best in the NFL–ranked 5th overall. The Cowboys’ defense has allowed just one offensive touchdown to each of its four opponents this season. Somehow, the Rams will have to break that trend with an offense that has struggled and looked really vulnerable along the OL. / Much has been made of backup QB Cooper Rush being undefeated in his four career starts. That will become less of a novelty and morph into a confidence builder each succeeding week as starters on the Cowboys’ offense in the huddle start looking to Rush as a proven leader and winner. Yes, it’s premature to draw any conclusions about Rush, his talents, or his future as a possible starter. Nonetheless, he and the Dallas coaching staff deserve massive credit for crafting a scaled-down game plan which seems to be working. / The Cowboys’ historical data might not apply so strongly given this is connected to Dak Prescott as the starter, but since the start of last season, Dallas is 9-1 ATS on the road (including five straight covers) and 13-2 ATS in conference games. LAR QB Matt Stafford grew up in Dallas Highland Park and says he most looks forward to playing the Cowboys, but he’s also been capable of making dumb decisions and isn’t getting the protection he needs as a traditional pocket passer.  I see enough reasons to take Dallas plus the points in this game. In a rare double play, I also like the UNDER.
My Picks: Dallas Cowboys +5.5 — Risking $220 to win $200 / Dallas-LA Rams UNDER 43 — Risking $220 to win $200

 

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Eagles -5.5 (-115) O48.5 (-110) -225
Cardinals +5.5 (-105) U48.5 (-110) +185
Analysis: The Eagles are the NFL’s only remaining undefeated team after four weeks and are 3-1 ATS. Now, they go on the road against Arizona.  The Cardinals badly need a major win to prove they’re a legit contender in the NFC. After ugly losses to the Rams and Chiefs at home, the Cardinals are desperate to show something and play better against top opposition. Beating the dangerous Eagles in this game would go a long way toward building both the team’s and fan’s confidence in Phoenix, as restlessness continues building against head coach Kliff Kingsbury, facing a fair amount of criticism. / This has been an unusual season for Arizona, which has a history of starting strongly and then fading later in the season. Arizona is a stellar 8-2 ATS as a dog since the start of last season. Arizona is also 20-10-1 ATS overall as an underdog under Kingsbury. Moreover, Arizona is 19-9 ATS in September/October in the Kingsbury era (12-3 ATS in October). Do any of these trends matter? I’m not sure. But an upset here (or at least a pointspread cover) wouldn’t be a surprise. / As for the Eagles, will they hit a speed bump? This looks like the game where that could happen. The Eagles are only 3-6-1 against the spread as road favorites since the start of the 2020 season. They might be getting just a little too much respect — and, after all — who exactly have the Eagles beaten so far this season? Jacksonville? Washington? Minnesota? Detroit? That opposition is a combined 6-10 SU. I’m not knocking Philadelphia, which may be among the top teams in the league. But that’s not proven yet. / Arizona will be hungry at home for a win and they know the Eagles are a real test. I expect a close game where the points could be a factor. So, give me the home underdog.
My Pick: Arizona Cardinals +5.5 — Risking $220 to win $200

 

[SNF] Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Bengals +3 (-105) O48.5 (-110) +145
Ravens -3 (-115) U48.5 (-110) -175
Analysis: This is one of the few times you can accurately say that just four plays, one in each game, had they gone differently could have made both of these teams 4-0 instead of 2-2. The Ravens have trailed for less than 30 seconds in all four games this season but still lost two games in the closing seconds (against very good teams–Miami and Buffalo). As for the Bengals, both of Cincinnati’s losses came on last-second field goals–both winnable games that they lost. / Much is made of the QB duel in this matchup, Lamar Jackson facing off against Joe Burrow, which I have zero interest in other than which team covers the spread. Jackson’s numbers are far superior, due in part to the Bengals still struggling to upgrade a weak offensive line. Still, we can’t ignore that Burrow scorched this defense in two meetings last season by throwing for more than 900 yards. / Betting on the Bengals and taking +3 points is very tempting. However, the more compelling play might be to fade the QB hype and bet on the UNDER. Divisional matchups tend to be lower-scoring than average. Incredibly, nine straight Cincinnati games have gone UNDER the total dating back to last season, including playoffs. There’s also a night game trend that’s impossible to ignore: Prime-time UNDERs are 9-4 this season, and 98-72-3 since 2019.  I say at least one offense will struggle, and this is decided by a late FG.
The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals/Baltimore Ravens UNDER 48.5 — Risking $220 to win $200

 

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Raiders +7 (-105) O51 (-110) +275
Chiefs -7 (-115) U51 (-110) -350
Analysis: This looks like a game where Kansas City wins in a blowout. Superstar QB Patrick Mahomes is 7-1 outright and 6-2 ATS against Las Vegas for his career. Kansas City is 34-21 ATS in division games under head coach Andy Reid. The Raiders’ vulnerable defense has struggled this season, surrendering 25 PPG and 357 YPG. Those aren’t good numbers when Mahomes is taking snaps at home for a primetime game. Indeed, Mahomes tends to shine when the lights are brightest and comes off a spectacular performance against Brady’s Buccaneers, last week. / Andy Reid is way too good a coach and this is too good a team to suffer a letdown against a division rival here. Furthermore, Las Vegas had no answers for the Chiefs in their two meetings last season, as KC topped the 40-point mark in each game. Mahomes slinged 664 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions in those two games. / I also continue to have my doubts that Josh McDaniel is really a competent head coach rather than a decent OC who is now living the Peter Principle (he’s now 10-20 for his NFL career).  After seeing game situations where McDaniel appeared confused and indecisive, Raiders fans and backers should be concerned.  Accordingly, it’s either a bet on Kansas City, or a pass for me. One trend does give me slight pause: Over the last 10 seasons, underdogs are 87-69-3 ATS in MNF games, and dogs of 7+ points are 27-18-1 ATS. Given these strong trends, the Raiders priced at +7 is just within the margins of making me pass on making a bet.
My Pick: No action.

 

1 Comment

  1. Enjoyed the trip through the LV Strip.
    Nicely done !
    Looking forward to more.
    Daniel

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