2022 NFL Analysis and Picks (Week 14)

This week’s “Best Seat in the House” contributor is Jennifer Thill Mrkvicka.

Thanks, Jennifer!

She attended the “thrilling” Seahawks-Raiders overtime game a few weeks ago — in Seattle. Great game and terrific seats!

In previous weeks posted here at my site, many friends and colleagues —– including Scott Byron (New York Giants-CLICK HERE), Bruce Kramer (Philadelphia Eagles-CLICK HERE), Noah Carbone (Miami Dolphins-CLICK HERE), Jason March (Las Vegas Raiders-CLICK HERE), Linda Kenney Baden/Dr. Michael Baden (New York Jets-CLICK HERE), Bob Jones (NFL London at Wembley Stadium-CLICK HERE), Judd Greenagel (Minnesota Vikings-CLICK HERE), Chad Halloway (Chicago Bears-CLICK HERE), Joseph Freda (New England Patriots-CLICK HERE) and Michael Minkoff (Las Vegas Raiders Television Studio-CLICK HERE)—– each shared their seat views.  Photos were posted here prior to the weekly write-ups.

Thanks to everyone for sending these and sharing.

Now, let’s get to some football handicapping.

Last week’s results:  12-10 (+$50)

New England Patriots Full Game +4.5 (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200 ….. LOST
New England First Half Team Total OVER 9.5 (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200 ….. LOST
New England Full Game Team Total OVER 19.5 (-125) — Risking $250 to win $200 ….. LOST
Tennessee Titans [Team Total-First Half] OVER 9.5 (-130) — Risking $290 to win $200 ….. WON
Cleveland / Houston UNDER 47 [Full Game] (-110) — Risking $200 to win $200 ….. WON
Baltimore -1.5 [Teaser–Posted Last Week with Pittsburgh on MNF] ….. LOST
PROP: Denver/Baltimore-Longest Field Goal (either team) OVER 46.5 yards — Risking $230 to win $200 ….. WON
Jacksonville Team Total OVER 12.5 [First Half] (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200 ….. LOST
Detroit Team Total OVER 12.5 [First Half] (-125) — Risking $250 to win $200 ….. WON
New York Jets +3 [Full Game] (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200 ….. LOST
Atlanta Falcons +1 [Full Game] (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200 ….. LOST
Washington / NY Giants UNDER 40.5 [Full Game] (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. WON
Miami / San Francisco UNDER 46.5 [Full Game] (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. LOST
TEASER: Seattle Seahawks -1 / Cleveland Browns -2 (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200 ….. WON
TEASER: Seattle Seahawks -1 / New York Giants +8 (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200 ….. WON
TEASER: Seattle Seahawks -1 / Cincinnati Bengals +8.5 (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200 ….. WON
TEASER: Seattle Seahawks -1 / Los Angeles Chargers +8 (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200 ….. WON
TEASER: Seattle Seahawks -1 / Dallas Cowboys -4.5 (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200 ….. WON
Cincinnati +1.5 [First Half] (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200 ….. WON
LA Chargers / Las Vegas OVER 49.5 [Full Game] (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 …. LOST
Indianapolis / Dallas UNDER 44.5 [Full Game] (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. LOST
New Orleans Saints +3.5 [Full Game] (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. WON

Now, it’s on to Week 14.

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NFL WAGERING RECORD (2022)
106 Wins
70 Losses
0 Pushes
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $15,958.
Net Gain/Loss: + $5,958.
Last Week’s Results: 12 wins – 10 losses (+ $50.)
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Preface: Before getting to the games, first a few comments about the LA Rams’ stunning comeback win and upset of the Las Vegas Raiders.  I had the Raiders teased in the game, and lost the bet.  I admit to being very wrong on the projections of Mayfield — not expecting him to play.  I’ve never seen any NFL team start a QB they signed just two days earlier, especially one as beat up as the Rams, which seemed like throwing raw meat to the wolves.  But the Raiders were the Raiders, fading again, and Mayfield gave us a performance for the ages — well, a fourth quarter for the ages (his first 45 minutes were unspectacular).  Sometimes in NFL wagering, you just have to dismiss what seemed logical, recognize that crazy things happen, and even admire someone (Mayfield) who overcame such adversity.  I’ve blasted Mayfield for years on this page, but let me stand and applaud his performance on Thursday night.  Just, wow.

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Cleveland at Cincinnati
Line: Bengals -5.5
O/U: 46

Analysis: I expected the battle of Ohio to be Bengals -7 or maybe -7.5, especially with the Bengals at home and playing as well as any team in the NFL at the moment. I’m stunned this is only -5.5, which is down from -6 earlier in the week. Apparently, money is coming in on Cleveland. Injuries are not a factor, but history is on the Browns’ side, so perhaps that’s the reason. Cleveland won the first meeting, demolishing Cincinnati 32-13 five weeks ago. Cleveland has also won five straight games in this series, including all in the Joe Burrow era. Browns’ backers will rightfully out the excellent rushing game contrasted with the Bengals mediocre defense, especially against the run. Let me agree with that premise that if the Browns rush for ~200 yards and win the time possession battle, they cover, and perhaps even win outright. However, two huge tipping points make me favor Cincy. First, it seems clear there’s a drop off at QB with Deshaun Watson back in the lineup. He wasn’t just rusty last week, Watson was in fact — awful. I realize when a team pays a player a shitload of money, they’ve got to start him. We’ll see if Cleveland’s gamble on Watson pays off, which will take time to prove. But right now, Watson isn’t anywhere near NFL midseason form. The Browns escaped this deficiancy last week because they played awful Houston, probably the NFL’s worst team (and Cleveland scored two defensive touchdowns which was the margin of victory). Let’s just say Cincinnati should be a far more formidable test. If the Browns fall behind, I’m glad to fade the cover rising on Watson’s arm playmaking abilities. Cincinnati has also won four straight since they lost to the Browns, and at 8-4 show no signs of the usual Super Bowl loser hangover trend that’s plagued many such teams. If anything, the Bengals now look stronger and more balanced this season. Even in their four losses, three of those came on last-second FGs. So, this has been a hot-performing team, getting healthy again, and now peaking at the right time, which is in December. Since losing their opener, Cincy is 4-0 SU and ATS at home. After beating both the Titans and Chiefs the last two weeks, facing the Browns will be a step down in class. I also see the Bengals with some added motivation in this game, with a clear opportunity to seize control in the AFC North (Cincy is tied with the Ravens at 8-4) and a chance to move into a first-round bye situation with a little help.

The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200

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NY Jets at Buffalo
Line: Bills -10
O/U: 43

Analysis: The first data point for any Buffalo game in December is the weather. Sunday’s forecast calls for temperature in the mid-30s, an 80 percent chance of freezing rain, and some wind. The rain could be problematic (snow isn’t really a factor in totals betting, unless there’s a lot of it), which is something to watch for. The Jets (7-5) should have won/covered last week at Minnesota, despite a spotty game by White (0 TDs, 2 INTs, 54 pct. completions) — including just one TD inside the red zone. They would have won were it not for some horrific play-calling late in the game (question–why do teams throw the ball on the opponent’s 1-yard line?). While the Jets’ defense is certainly for real, uncertainty about White in big game pressure and serious questions about the Jets’ decisions and offensive schemes keeps me away from the strong temptation to take them plus the generous number of points. But, I’m not laying double digits either. Not in a division matchup. Buffalo (9-3) will be eager to avenge a 20-17 road loss to NYJ last month then they were held to just 317 yards – the fewest gained all year by the Bills. A win makes the path to the division title much easier and also gives Buffalo a slim advantage as the AFC’s #1 seed. A loss completely changes things. For the Jets, this is almost a playoff game (that loss to Minnesota last week was a killer). The problem for the Jets is, they are catching Buffalo at a bad time…. (1) revenge-minded (2) on a three-game win streak, and (3) with extra rest (Bills played last Thursday). Back-to-back road games don’t help the Jets, either. Rather than a bet on the spread or total, instead, I do see value in a PROP on this game, which is Mike White’s passing yards to go OVER. Clearly, the Jets are comfortable with White under center, allowing him to throw the ball. He threw 57 times last week. Both of his starts this season yielded higher-than-average passing yardage numbers, 315 and 369, respectively. The game spread indicates the Jets are likely to be playing much of the game from behind, which means White is likely to be forced into throwing more, and if the Jets are way behind, that’s a great setup for trash yards. The PROP on White is to pass for more than 240.5 — which looks very doable. Buffalo ranks #17 in the NFL against the pass, and has shown some tendency to let opposing QB put up good numbers (DET and MIN, most recently).

The Pick: Prop–Mike White OVER 240.5 passing yards (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200

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Jacksonville at Tennessee
Line: Titans -3.5
O/U: 41

Analysis: Typically, a 7-5 first-place team playing at home would be a significant favorite versus a struggling 4-8 opponent going nowhere in the standings. But the line here is only -3.5. Why? Answer–it’s hard to get a pulse on the Titans. They’ve been outscored 240-219 this season. They just fired their GM, in midseason, which is practically unheard of. Yet, Tennessee is also 8-4 ATS this season, one of the NFL’s best records, and has a reputation for being underrated in betting markets. Perhaps their success stems from playing in a terrible division, which allowed the Titans to pad their wins and look better than they actually are. Nonetheless, these are the late-season games the Titans usually win. So, what the hell is going on with this pointspread? Tennessee does play lots lot of ugly, low-scoring games. So, all data points combined — the number is probably correct. / Betting UNDER 41 is tempting. But do we really want to do that with a #22-ranked defense (Titans) facing a #26-ranked defense (Jacksonville)? / Maybe. JAX QB Trevor Lawrence is “questionable but expects to play.” So, he’ll play. What’s problematic about the Jaguars is their shitting the bed last week in Detroit, getting destroyed by 26 points. That’s a team with problems, losing by that margin (and the Lions’ defense is awful). Slight lean to the UNDER. But I’ll pass on making a bet.

The Pick: No Action.

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Philadelphia at NY Giants
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 45.5

Analysis: Did the Eagles right their ship last week when they wiped the field with the Titans? Maybe. Philadelphia (11-1) looked really average and very lucky for the past month, that is, until Week 13’s demolition of playoff-bound Tennessee by a whopping 25 points. That victory was a major statement. Philadelphia seemed to be sleepwalking through midseason, doing just enough to win, but struggling to cover increasingly larger spreads as betting markets began adjusting for the team with the NFL’s best W-L record. Now in Week 14, here’s a shot to punch a division rival in the jaw and almost certainly lock up the #1 seed as fewer games remain. As to betting the Eagles, I wish this line was 6 or 6.5, but -7 is probably going to keep me off the favorite. / As for the Giants, I was surprised by their effectiveness last week vs. Washington. Even much-maligned QB Daniel Jones played a terrific, mistake-free game. Home for another week vs. their division rival, the Giants are certainly capable of keeping this game close. I’m skipping the side and total but I think there’s enough firepower on the Giants’ offense to crack the team total in the first half, which is 9.5 points. Note: Rain in the forecast.

The Pick: NY Giants–Team Total First Half OVER 9.5 (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200

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Minnesota at Detroit
Line: Lions -2
O/U: 51.5

Analysis: There’s been lots of talk in betting circles about the outlier line on this game, where a 5-7 team is favored vs. a 10-2 opponent. If you practice the old adage “don’t bet teams, bet numbers,” then Minnesota is the obvious pick by any metrics. However, the market is tilted heavily toward Detroit in this game, and I think there’s a valid justification for a wager on them laying the points. Let’s start with Detroit, winners of 4 of their last 5, and the lone loss was a last-second heartbreaker to Buffalo (no shame in that). What’s more important is the confidence, which we see on the Lions’ sideline for the first time in years. Detroit appears to be playing “their” game, and is racking up impressive stats as the team continues to improve with each game. This doesn’t mean the Lions are a superior team to the Vikings, but they are streaking and get a chance to make another big step forward by beating the team all but certain to win the division and be one of two teams to enjoy a first-round playoff bye. The Lions destroyed the Jaguars last week, stay at home, and should be in a good spot to continue playing well. / Conversely, I’m not sure there’s any urgency here for the Vikings. A loss here means very little, since it’s unlikely for any team to catch them as the #2 seed, and they’re probably not going to surpass the Eagles. So, is Minnesota really going to put everything into this game? I don’t see that happening. The Vikings have won a lot of close games this season, including a razor-thin victory over the Lions earlier in the season. The Vikings rank a dreadful #31st in YPG, which bodes well for an explosive Lions offense that ranks #7. The Lions are going to move the ball. Playing at home, with more urgency (the Lions could back into the playoffs if they run the table), against a division rival, loaded with confidence is enough to make me lay -2. I don’t like going along with popular perception, but Detroit should have more to play for and has proven its ability to compete vs. any team in the NFL.

The Pick: Detroit Lions -2 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200

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Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Line: Steelers -1.5
O/U: 36.5

Analysis: Let’s start with the Baltimore Ravens, the worst 8-4 team in NFL history:

RAVENS = FRAUDS

What a schlock of shit. They get outplayed for 59 minutes by the 3-9 Broncos who can’t score on anybody. The week before that, Baltimore loses outright to the 4-9 Jaguars. A week prior to that, the Ravens luckbox their way to an ugly 13-3 home win against the shit 3-9 Panthers (the game was tied 3-3 early in 4Q). This isn’t all on Lamar Jackson, who is out for 2-3 weeks, including this game against the Steelers. The Ravens are an average team that’s caught just enough breaks along the way to be in first place tied with the Bengals. They’re #14 in offense YPG and #14 in defense YPG — like I said, average. Against the spread, the Ravens are money burners, just 4-7-1 this season. You can probably tell I’m fading these frauds, especially with Tyler Huntley playing as the backup QB. Baltimore struggled the last three games, and now plays a revamped Pittsburgh defense that really stepped up since the return of 2021 “Defensive Player of the Year,” T.J. Watt. I expect Baltimore’s troubles to continue, as they won’t be able to get away with sloppy play and mistakes in a division road game against a resurgent team that’s won 3 of its last 4 games (defeat was a one-score loss to Cincy). Huntley is 1-3 as an NFL starter. But what really hurts Ravens is losing their best rusher. Jackson leads Ravens with 764 rushing yards; the next highest player is Drake, with just 421 yards.  So, how is Baltimore going to move the ball? / Pittsburgh probably found their new QB, as well with Kenny Pickett (no INTs last three starts) playing better each game. The Steelers are making an impressive late-season push. It might be too late to make the playoffs, but they’ll be a solid test at home versus a hobbled, underachieving division rival. More on the resurgence of Pittsburgh: In four post-bye games, Pittsburgh ran the ball for 161 YPG, well above league average.  Also, Steelers converted 30/60 on third down, which is a spectacular stat.  As to Baltimore’s recent trends, if Jackson was struggling to jump-start the sputtering Ravens’ offense, how is backup Huntley going to use these same parts and get the engine running? Give me Pittsburgh minus the small number.

The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200

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Houston at Dallas
Line: Cowboys -17.5
O/U: 44

Analysis: The Cowboys can probably name the final score here. This is the highest spread of the NFL season, and rightly so. The last time the Texans went on the road was a few weeks ago when they played in Miami and got pummeled by the Dolphins, which led 30-0 at halftime. Houston staged a trash-yardage comeback in the second half, losing by 15 at the end. But that could have just as easily been a 40-point loss for the Texans. Houston also regressed last week, especially on offense, which gave up more points (two defensive TDs) than they scored. Dallas doesn’t let up like either of their last two opponents, evidenced by their 33-point 4Q last week at home against Indianapolis. NFL teams used to lay off in the 2H when up big, but some teams keep hitting the gas and it looks like Dallas is in this mindset, perhaps wanting to continue building confidence heading toward the playoffs, where the Cowboys always crash and burn. So, we can probably dispel fears that the Cowboys will relax, if leading. The Cowboys love to run up points and did so in big wins versus the Bears, Vikings, and Colts since QB Dak Prescott’s return from injury. However, I’m skipping either side or total. / Instead, what I like is a PROP in this game, which is the interception total for Houston QB Davis Mills at .5 (basically-will he or won’t he throw an interception). We must lay -215, which seems high. However, this vig is inflated for a good reason since Mills has thrown an interception in 5 straight games, and 7 of his last 8 starts. He has four games with multiple interceptions this season. No doubt, Mills facing a tougher defense with Dallas, ranked #3 overall, and #2 in takeaways (with 20). Given that Houston will be behind in much of this game based on the spread, Mills will be forced to pass, and we can bet with some confidence that he’ll toss at least one pick. Mills also averages 37 pass attempts per game, which is higher than average (especially for a team that doesn’t generate many drives and runs the second-fewest offensive plays in the NFL). Again, playing from behind, under pressure, versus a top defense, on the road — he’s likely good for an interception. This is a good bet, even at the lay price.

The Pick: Prop-Mills Davis Interceptions OVER .5 (-215) — Risking $430 to win $200

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Kansas City at Denver
Line: Chiefs -9.5
O/U: 44

Analysis: Denver remains one of the most unusual teams in recent memory and last week’s heartbreaking last-second loss at Baltimore was yet another repeat chapter of the same old smelly story that’s been the Bronco’s disastrous 2022 season. Seriously — has there ever been a more sold defense combined with as bad an offense on the same NFL sidelines? Just look at Denver’s offensive scoring output in its last eight games: 9-10-16-10-21-16-9-9. Yet, in that same span, the most points the Broncos’ #3 ranked defense has given up was 23 (averaging just 305 YPG). I keep saying this, but when the offense is losing the time of possession and yardage battle so badly in every game, it’s amazing to look at Denver’s defensive stats. So, while most of the betting world points at the Broncos and screams, “shit team!” let’s also remember that 11/22 of these starters are doing Super Bowl-calibre work. That fact will put me on Denver +9.5 this week when they host Kansas City. Another compelling point is the Chiefs’ 1-3-1 ATS record in its last five games, and the one cover was by a half-point. Kansas City isn’t exactly blowing out opponents, so laying -9.5 is quite a stretch and clearly a betting market overreaction. Moreover, Kansas City plays a second straight game on the road following a tough loss at Cincinnati last week. Home divisional underdogs tend to be wise bets anyway, but adding the unusually high number here, the Chiefs’ recent stumbles as a favorite, and Denver’s outstanding defense, I’m grabbing the Broncos plus the points. I’ll also take Denver in the first half, plus the points. Contrary Data: Chiefs have won 12 games in a row in this series, although Denver has covered 2 of the last 3 meetings.

The Pick: Denver Broncos +9.5 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 / Denver–First Half +5.5 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200

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Carolina at Seattle
Line: Seahawks -4
O/U: 44.5

Analysis: I like Carolina’s team total OVER 9.5 points in the first half. If you’ve watched recent Seattle games, you know — that defense is abysmal. Ranked #30 in the NFL, the Seahawks can’t stop anybody. They also rank #30 in the NFL in points allowed in the first half. Let’s credit Carolina for cracking the 20+ point mark (for the game) in 5 of the last 6 weeks. They’re also coming off a bye, so without much to lose, look for the Panthers to open up the offense against an opponent that’s vulnerable. It’s also been a surprise to see Carolina 5-2 ATS since they changed coaches in midseason, so the team has responded well to changes. This is especially true for the defense, as the Panthers didn’t allow a TD in the first half of their last three games. If that continues, that’s fewer long drives for Seattle and more time on the field for the Panthers’ offense to score. QB Sam Darnold is a question mark, but he did win his first 2022 start, so there’s some confidence putting up 23 points on a terrific Broncos defense and getting the win, and now facing a much softer defense with plenty of rest and prep time off the bye week. Seattle will be tempting to many bettors in this game, but they’ve dropped three straight ATS, and needed a miracle last-second TD last week to beat the scrappy Rams. Carolina could have some fight here and possibly win outright. But my money is on the ‘Cats to break the 9.5-point total and slightly inflated vig.

The Pick: Carolina-Team Total First Half OVER 9.5 (-130) — Risking $260 to win $200

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Tampa Bay at San Francisco
Line: 49ers -3.5
O/U: 37

Analysis: Both teams are coming off huge wins last week — the Bucs’ amazing comeback vs. New Orleans……and the 49ers demolishing of Miami, even without their starting QB. So, which team keeps up the momentum this week? The spread indicates San Francisco, which looked better in their win and played a much more balanced game, even with Brock Purdy coming in off the bench following Garappolo’s injury. But this is now his first NFL start, and he’s facing a really good Bucs’ defense. Laying -3.5 points seems excessive, even without Brady on the opposite sidelines. Tampa Bay looked bad for 55 minutes in last week’s win/non-cover. Things won’t be any easier against the NFL’s #1 ranked defense (both in yardage and points allowed). We have to wonder about the high of coming off a huge emotional win, now traveling across the country on a short week. We also must face the ugliest data point of all — Buccaneers are a dreadful 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games. So, while it’s very tempting to take +3.5 and that could be the correct side, I’m not betting on a team that’s been a horrible underperformer to betting market expectations. So, I’m going to pass on the temptation to bet on Tampa Bay. I’m also going to skip putting money on a QB named Purdy, who played terrific last week, but might not enjoy a redux this time around. QBs in those spots sometimes do very well pressed into action off the bench with no forethought, but give them a week of practice to think about the pressure of starting a game, and then play like rookies again. Taken as the 262nd and final pick in the draft, the 22-year-old has gone from fighting for a spot on the team, to third-string QB, to playing, to starting, all within the span of just a few months. Oh, and he’s getting his first NFL start against Tom Brady. I’ll assume he needs no introduction. So, where’s the value? I’m having trouble finding it, so I’m going to pass on making a wager.

The Pick: No Action.

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[SNF]  Miami at LA Chargers
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 53,5

Analysis:  Give me Miami minus the points in the Sunday Night Football matchup, coming off an uncharacteristically bad effort last week in San Francisco, and now facing a much softer spot against the ice cream scoopers. The soft-serve Chargers are a maddening team to watch (and far worse to bet on), ranking #27th in points allowed, #24th in yards allowed, and arguably the worst playing-calling on offense of any team in the NFL. Eight of the Chargers’ 12 games this season were against teams with losing records, yet they’re only 6-6 and floundering. To their credit, the Chargers are in most of their games, thanks largely to QB Justin Herbert’s steady play at QB. However, the Chargers’ defense should get shredded this week facing an offense ranked #2 in passing and #4 overall (even though 2+ games were with a backup QB). Miami had won 5 straight games before last week’s loss. The Chargers have now lost 3 of its last 4 games. I typically don’t like laying a FG or more on the road, but there’s no question Miami is the better team in talent and coaching. Miami has also been very good the last few seasons coming off bad defensive efforts, so I’ll lay the chalk.  Line was -1 early in the week, then went up to -3.5 based on certainty Tagovailoa would start, and now is -3 and -3.5 in some places.

The Pick: Miami Dolphins -3 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200

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[MNF]  New England at Arizona
Line: Patriots -1.5
O/U: 43.5

Analysis:  This is a tough game to handicap. Two terribly disappointing teams will face off on MNF. At 6-6, the Patriots still have slim playoff hopes alive. Win this game, and they move into the final wild-card spot in a tightening AFC playoff race. But let’s also be realistic, especially given what New England faces ahead after this game: Cincinnati, Miami Dolphins, and Buffalo (combined record: 27-12). Meanwhile, the lowly 4-8 Cardinals now appear to be just going through the motions, punchdrunk after losing four of their past five games. Last season’s explosive Top-10 offense has slipped to 20th in the NFL and QB Kyler Murray appears to have regressed after signing a mega-five-year $240M deal that’s going to anchor down the Cardinals like a fancy sports car sitting in the driveway that never runs and leave oil stains on the pavement. Translation: Arizona’s fucked. At season’s end, Kliff Kingsbury is likely to lead the fall of ex-coaches tumbling down the stairs after going 5-13 SU in his last 18 games. The Cardinals also have an NFC-worst 1-6 SU record at home. Who knows what’s left in the tank or in the hearts of Arizona players, knowing this pretty much means squat. All this makes it sound like I’m jumping on the Patriots, but something really scared me about their last game. What we saw in last Thursday’s game was a Bill Belichick team that QUIT. I’ve never seen that happen. With 2:00 left and trailing by 14, the Patriots decided NOT to use any of their 3 timeouts. Sure, it was nearly impossible for New England to comeback and win, but miracles do happen. The Patriots looked like a lifeless team, that gave up. Even really bad teams don’t do that. So, that makes me very wary of backing the Patriots. Is this an overreaction to one bad game? Perhaps, so. / So, what’s the pick? Where I see value is in Kyler Murray going off-script and making things happen. He’s a notoriously slow starter (the Cardinals are the worst 1H team in the NFL ATS). But he tends to improve with reps, and when his mobility can become effective. The prop on Murray’s RUSHING YARDS is just 35.5 (-115), which I expect him to exceed. First, since the Patriots are capable of frustrating Arizona receivers, that might force Murray to run more, which he likes to do. In his last five starts, Murray has rushed for 56-60-36-30-100….4/5 games OVER the 35.5 mark. He also takes rushing attempts often, only behind Fields (CHI) and Jackson (BAL), with 7-8-8-7-10 bursts in his last five games. Let’s also give Murray some credit for being explosive. He could run for 35.5+ on any single play. In games versus mobile QB, the Patriots defense struggled — surrendering 107 to Fields and 83 to Jackson. The O/U at just 35.5 looks like a creampuff. I’ll add a bet on the Cardinal team total exceeding 20.5 points (for the full game). Arizona comes off a bye week and this is a primetime last-ditch game for the Cardinals staff, which should take some shots, and have plenty of weapons to score points. Arizona has exceeded the 20.5 point mark in 5 of their last 6 games, the only hiccup being the Mexico City game vs. the NFL’s best defense. So, I’m counting on Arizona to score 21 or more and hit the team total OVER.

The Picks: Prop-Kyle Murray OVER 35.5 rushing yards (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200 / Arizona-Team Total OVER 20.5 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200

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Note:  This is the final report for Week 14.

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Las Vegas at LA Rams
Line: Raiders -7
O/U: 43.5

Analysis: This game has no playoff implications, however — both teams have been playing much better than expected in recent weeks. / The Raiders were left dead and buried just three weeks ago and seemed on the brink of firing first-year head coach Josh McDaniels. Just when the Raiders bottomed out after a humiliating loss at home to Indianapolis, they went into Denver and won in OT, then went into Seattle and won again in OT, and then beat the rival Chargers at home last week. That’s three consecutive wins and covers, two versus playoff contenders. Now, Las Vegas plays arguably a worse team than any they’ve faced recently. Given their current momentum and renaissance of confidence in Las Vegas, the Raiders are probably a good bet to continue the win streak, even though this game might not be as easy as it seems. / As for the Rams, this season has been a disaster. Not only are they inflicted with a Super Bowl hangover, but injuries have also been devastating. It’s hard to remember any NFL team that’s been hammered by as many offensive injuries as the Rams, this season. Under the circumstances, it’s remarkable this team continues to play tough and hasn’t mailed it in yet. For instance, the Rams went into Kansas City a few weeks ago and played far better than the final score indicated. Then last week, the Rams nearly beat Seattle outright as 5-point underdogs, losing in the final minute on a late touchdown. Credit the Rams’ defense for a valiant effort, even though they’re also short-handed. / The Rams’ defensive efforts in their past two games will keep me off of Las Vegas laying -7. That’s simply too high given this is a short week and you never know which Raiders team might show up from week to week. However, it’s hard to see a scenario where Las Vegas wins three straight thrilling games and plays so well, especially on offense (ranked #12 in passing and #11 in rushing), and then trashing that real progress by losing to a floundering team with multiple players having almost no NFL experience nor future prospects, other than they’re filling in for injured Rams’ starters as a temporary stopgap. In fact, the Rams are so desperate they signed free agent castoff Baker Mayfield this week, who was given a one-way bus ticket out of Carolina and told never to return. Incredibly, Mayfield might even see action this week, according to reports. It’s unfathomable that any QB (let alone someone with as spotty a record as Mayfield) could suddenly step into a new offensive system, playing among scraps, and bring the Rams’ dormant offense back to life. John Wolford started the last few games and played below average. But he wasn’t terrible, either — completing 61 pct. of passes and performing better than expected given he’s protected by an offensive line off of Craigs List. Wolford or Mayfield only adds to massive uncertainty about this game, though it makes no sense to bring in a failed QB and after just two days of practice expect him to work miracles. If Sean McVay really wants to destroy whatever remains of Mayfield’s dust particles of confidence, he’ll play him under an impossible situation (which I don’t see happening–McVay is a smart coach).  The bottom line here is: These are teams going in opposite directions.  One team is on a three-game win streak; the other is on a six-game losing streak. It seems logical to expect these trends to continue, for at least another week. Accordingly, I’ll tease the Raiders from -7 down to -1 and combine it with a wager on a Sunday NFL game.

The Pick:  Teaser–Las Vegas Raiders -1 / Cincinnati Bengals even (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200 ….. LOST