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Posted by on Dec 29, 2013 in Blog, Sports Betting | 0 comments

NFL Wild Card Games (Early Picks)

 

nfl-on-grass

 

Sunday was a nice way to end the regular season, going 6 wins and 3 losses — for a profit of $2,010.  The three losses came by a combined 5 points, so it could have been a monster day.  I’ll still take it.

Futures bets also performed well, going 6 wins and 3 losses, for a nice win totaling $2,985 for the season.  Two of the losers lost by a half game.  Like I said, I’ll take it.

Best Bets went a combined 3-1 last week (for all wagers), which now puts that category into the black for the first time this season.

After a lackluster first half of the season, the profits are now rolling in.  Total results (all documented here) shows a 106 percent return on investment for the season — which is turning into a monster year.  Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

Now, it’s on to the playoffs.  I’m posting early because I expect these lines will move (see plays below).

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2013 NFL SEASON RECORD

104 WINS — 78 LOSSES — 6 PUSHES

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 6 WINS  3 LOSSES  0 PUSHES (+$2,010) 

FUTURES BETS GRADED — 6 WINS  3 LOSSES   0 PUSHES (+2,985)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $20,602.

NET GAIN:  + $10,602.

BEST BETS:  21–18–2

 

THIS WEEK’S PLAYS:  Will Be Updated Later With More Possible Plays

San Francisco -2.5 (-115) at Green Bay — $805 to win $700

49ers are far superior in every phase, except at QB where they are at a huge disadvantage.  49ers game plan is to play solid defense, run the ball, and let the best crew of WRs in the NFL catch Kaepernick’s wobbly balls and make yardage.  The formula works.  Green Bay’s defense is awful.  I can’t see the Packers matching up well here and will gladly lay the points.

Kansas City +3 (-120) at Indianapolis — $880 to win $800

Colts record is deceptive, but they have managed to beat some good teams (SEA, DEN, SFO).  The difference is Chiefs running game.  I expect them to control the line of scrimmage and win outright.

Philadelphia -2.5 (-125) vs New Orleans — $750 to win $600

How can you not fade the Saints outdoors?  Hurts to bet against New Orleans, but that’s clearly the right side based on what we’ve seen.  Need to snap this up because I’m sure this moves to -3, if not higher by game time.

Cincinnati -7 vs. San Diego — $1,100 to win $1,000     <<<BEST BET>>>

Chargers should have lost the game last week to Kansas City practice squad.  Everyone was on bench for Chiefs, but they still somehow almost won outright as double digit dog on the road, and would have knocked San Diego out of playoffs were it not for a missed field goal.  Chargers are the NFL’s softest team, and should have a handful against a team that’s perfect at home and scoring a ton of points every week.  Huge game for Bengals who I expect will roll up the score and cover easily.

 

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (INCLUDES NFL REGULAR SEASON-WINS FUTURES):  6 wins and 3 losses in Week 17 (+2,010), and 6 wins and 3 losses in Futures Bets (+2,985).

 

Atlanta +5.5 vs. Carolina — $550 to win $500     WON

TEASER:  Atlanta +11.5 with New Orleans -5.5 — $550 to win $500     WON

TEASER:  New Orleans -6 with Tennessee -1.5 — $880 to win $800   <<<BEST BET>>>       WON

TEASER:  New Orleans -6 with Pittsburgh -1 — $880 to win $800   <<<BEST BET>>>       WON

TEASER:  Pittsburgh -1 with San Diego -4 — $880 to win $800   <<<BEST BET>>>     LOST

Minnesota -3 vs. Detroit — $550 to win $500     LOST

Arizona +1 vs. San Francisco — $660 to win $600     LOST

TEAM TOTAL POINTS:  New Orleans Over 29.5 — $880 to win $800       WON

FIRST HALF:  Philadelphia -3 vs. Dallas — $660 to win $600       WON

 

DALLAS COWBOYS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-125) —– Wagering $750 to win $600     WINNER

NEW YORK GIANTS OVER 9 WINS (-105) —– Wagering $1,050 to win $1,000    LOSER

GREEN BAY PACKERS UNDER 10.5 WINS (-115) —– Wagering $575 to win $500    WINNER

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS UNDER 7.5 WINS (+105) *BEST BET* —– Wagering $1,500 to win $1,575    WINNER

NEW ORLEANS OVER 9 WINS (-165) —– Wagering $1,650 to win $1,000   WINNER

ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER 7.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $440 to win $400     LOSER

BALTIMORE RAVENS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000     LOSER

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $880 to win $800   WINNER

OAKLAND RAIDERS UNDER 5.5 (-180) — Wagering $1,800 to win $1,000    WINNER

 

……………..

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 FINAL NFL SEASON RECORD

98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

ENDING BANKROLL:  $13,460.

NET GAIN:  + $3,460

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  14-7-0

 

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Posted by on Nov 17, 2013 in Blog | 2 comments

NFL Picks: Who Wants Free Money?

 treasure-chest

 

I told you so.

But hey, you wouldn’t listen.  Now, I’m siting here guzzling down a $65 bottle of wine.  And I must say — it’s delicious.

What’s that sitting next to your desk?  A lite beer?  You poor little thing.  Here, have a sip of my Gevrey Chambertin.  It’s on me.  I’ve got a case sitting in my garage.

Let me refresh your memory.  Go back and read the comments section here last week and over on Facebook.  Last week, every clown in the universe was on the Chicago Bears, which made me put my money square on the Detroit Lions.  All I heard from you was chump talk.  Yap.  Yap.  Yap.  Now, do me a favor.  Take a look at the scoreboard.  Let me refresh your memory:

Final Score:  Detroit 21  Chicago 19

Floooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooosh!

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Posted by on Nov 9, 2013 in Blog, Rants and Raves, Sports Betting | 6 comments

My NFL “Fuck It” Specials

 

Tyrannosaurus rex dinosaurs mating

 

WARNING:  FOR ADULTS ONLY

 

Fuck this!

Here I am working my ass off giving the public free gold, and then these bullshit games don’t turn out as they’re supposed to.

Total horseshit!  It’s so wrong.

Consider two games played last week.  Chalk up a $4,200 swing and losing my lunch to the inexplicable forces of the universe.

Recall that I touted the “UNDER 45” in the Philadelphia-Oakland game.  That should have been an absolute cakewalk.  Like minting fucking money.  Hell, I already went out and spent what I was supposed to win from that game.

So instead of winning and cashing, what really happened?  Those two piss ant offenses ended up combing to score 69 points!  There is no fucking way Philadelphia and Oakland were supposed to score anything like that.  I mean, you show me some kind of evidence where you could see Philadelphia showing up for a road game and putting up SEVEN FUCKING TOUCHDOWNS.

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Posted by on Oct 26, 2013 in Blog | 0 comments

My NFL Picks: Week 8

 

NFL Football

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2013 NFL SEASON RECORD

48 WINS — 41 LOSSES — 3 PUSHES

LAST WEEK – 6 WINS — 5 LOSSES

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $8,215.

NET GAIN/LOSS:  minus $1,785.

BEST BETS:  6–9–1

 

Let’s talk about Jacksonville.

Lots of people beat me up for picking that pig last week.  It lost by double digits.  Funny how it’s always easy to see the light AFTER the game is over.  There sure are a lot of geniuses on Monday mornings.

But here’s the facts.  One key to profitable sports betting is to try and stay AHEAD of the market.  Follow the crowd and you’re going to lose your ass in the long run.  Big time.  Winners anticipate what’s likely to happen and then take advantage of numbers that haven’t quite adjusted yet to reality.

If any team is an absolute pariah right now, it’s Jacksonville.  They’re on a slide that could rival the winless 2008 Detroit Lions.  Yet even those awful Lions that year didn’t go 0-16 against the spread.  There are spots when you should bet on bad teams.  Moreover, it’s immensely profitable to get as much value as you can anytime the market thinks one way, and reality suggests something different.

So, I was wrong about Jacksonville last week.  I’m going to be wrong a lot of times, as the record shows.  But that pick last week was more a case of betting against the rival than falling in love with the team we’re backing.  There are likely to be situations where this will come up again.  By the way, Jacksonville’s only cover this season was versus the team that most say is the best in the NFL right now — Denver.  So, it goes to show that selective contrarianism works.  Moreoever, anyone who thinks following to the echo chamber (“Jacksonville sucks,” etc.) will make money as a betting strategy is invited to e-mail me.  I’ll be glad to take your wagers.  You don’t make money betting with the crowd, you do so (sometimes) by betting against it.

Then again, if you don’t like my plays then by all means please — be against them.  You’ve be 7 games under .500 and stuck somewhat worse than where I am right now, due to the extra vig.  I’m not in a position to squawk right now, with a rough start to the season.  But I’ll be glad to fade what’s popular almost every time.

As I said, it’s been a less than satisfying season, but there’s still a long way to go.  Here are my nine plays for NFL Week 8:

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