NFL Conference Championship Games

Note to Readers:

Serious column today.

If you’ve been following my NFL selections over the past season or two, what I’m about to write may come as a shock.

I’ve done a poor job at handicapping this year.

Many of you know I’ve been making football picks publicly for the past 15 NFL seasons.  My plays are documented — posted well in advance at various websites over the years (the last two seasons here at my website).  The record speaks for itself.

But the science of sports handicapping isn’t always results-oriented, especially short term.  Looking back over this past football season, I’ve ignored countless situations where evidence suggested taking either a pass on a game or betting the other side.  My “Best Bets” basically ended up even, the same result you’d get from randomly flipping a coin.  I also let my emotions get in the way (betting against San Francisco last week, for example), which cost me significant money.  That’s inexcusable.

Even if I don’t always practice it, I know what good handicapping is.  Check out Betting Emporium, or any of the other excellent sources out there where people really do their homework.  I understand what it means to be on the right side of a game or total.

Handicapping is about exploiting the small edges, that are sometimes out there.  I stress sometimes.  Not all the time.  No one who bets a lot of games beats the market in the long run.

That said, I’m still significantly ahead for the season.  My bankroll is up a whopping 59 percent, which obliterates just about any other public handicapper.  Oh, and I’ve made nearly 200 players this year — far more than any handicapper out there.  Why then, would I make such a seemingly preposterous statement that — I’ve done a poor job at handicapping this year?

Fact is, I got very lucky a few weeks.  When I pressed my bets, I turned some big wins.  Part of this is money management, which worked in my favor again this year (see last year’s results when a similar thing happened).  But I also timed my huge weeks when I was betting bigger and my bad weeks when I bet smaller.  I guess there’s an art form to that, but I’m still trying to figure it out.

Point is, I’m not fooling myself, or anyone else.  Handicapping is an ongoing process of learning and making adjustments.  Sure, I’ll take my record and profit.  But I’m not taking pride in the methodology that was used to get here.  Let’s just say, I can do much better.

It appears that I’ll end up posting another winning season of betting, which means 12 winning seasons of betting and 4 losing seasons of betting since I started posting my picks publicly.  I’ll take those numbers and put them up against anyone out there.  But there’s no resting on laurels with two big weeks still to go.

We’re in for a treat this weekend.  These two matchups are as good a games as you will ever see.  See my plays below.

NOLAN DALLA:  2013 NFL SEASON RECORD

106 WINS — 82 LOSSES — 6 PUSHES

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 0 WINS  1 LOSSES (-$3,300)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $15,962.

NET GAIN:  + $5,962.

BEST BETS:  21–20–2

San Francisco at Seattle (Game Line:  SEA -3  to -3.5   Total:  39)

Betting action has tilted towards San Francisco this week.  While the line has hung around Seattle -3.5, most of the sharps pounded the 49ers, since the line certainly wouldn’t go up to -4, but very possibly drop to to -3 by game time.

Apparently, the line is adjusted slightly upward from what should probably be a solid -3 because of Seattle’s undeniable home-field advantage, probably the NFL’s most significant edge based on home-away.  If the standard number accounts for 3 points for home field, the Seattle clearly deserves a premium, and should be perhaps -4 points.  Maybe more.  Based on the way betting is going, that means the market thinks San Francisco is actually the better team at the moment, by about a point or so.

Given these razor-thin margins, I don’t recommend playing the game.  While going with San Francisco +3.5 is certainly inviting, especially if you can still find -110, I won’t make the play.  At anything with higher vig attached, I think you have to pass.

What’s really intriguing is the total, which is a season-low 39 for both teams.  Virtually all NFL games now are totaled in the 40’s and 50’s.  But this game is expected to be dominated by defense.  Both teams played excellent defense and tackle well (something overlooked, in my view).  Opponents get few yards after initial contact.  Moreover, both teams come off low-scoring games last week and are trending towards low numbers.  Both teams have gone a combined 14-21 in favor of the UNDER.  One must wonder however, if the line hasn’t been adjusted downward slightly too much.

Given the balance of a tight low-scoring game, here’s where teaser points become even more powerful.  Six points added to a defensive struggle is far more significant than the usual game, and therefore that’s an attractive option.  Trouble is, finding the second half of the teaser (there’s only three possibilities).  So, this is inherently challenging.  I can certainly see the merit of taking both dogs and teasing them up — SFO +9.5 with NWE +11.5.  Hard to argue with those numbers, and two dogs which could win outright.

A big negative that hasn’t been addressed much in pre-game coverage is the 49ers playing their fourth consecutive road game.  Not only that, San Francisco has traveled great distances, in some extreme environments.  I was wrong last week, suggesting 49ers players would wear down after the cold weather game the previous week at Green Bay.  Players showed no signs of decline, and were in fact at their best (recall the two goal-line stands).  So, even with some concern about the travel issue, this is a terrifically coached and well conditioned team that shows no signs of fatigue.

Given all the factors, I’m going to make plays based on numbers and mean-regression.

New England at Denver (Game Line:  DEN -5.5     Total:  55.5)

Everyone I know seems to be jumping on New England and taking the points.  That’s such an attractive option.  The feeling is the Patriots are peaking at just the right time, while Denver looked sloppy last week, in a game against a far weaker opponent where they should have won by double digits.  Add QB Brady’s results over the years against Manning in these big games (including earlier this season), and it seems taking the points is the wise play.

Trouble is, New England is on a serious slide in AFC Championship games, going 0-4 against the spread in these matchups.  Of course, they were always favored in the past and are now getting points.  Another thing that troubles me about New England is reports the Brady had the flu (missed practice on Wednesday).  I’m not sure how serious that illness was, but it’s worth some concern.  The Patriots will only go as far as their star quarterback will take them.

It’s almost impossible to lay points with Denver, especially versus a quality opponent.  I mean, where’s the value?  But I don’t want to touch New England either, which is consistently underperforming in championship level games against the spread (they’ve also lost four straight the number in Super Bowls — so that’s 0-8 ATS in conference and league championship games combined….remember that good teams win and great teams COVER).

The more inviting wager appears to be on the total, which is on an astronomically high 55.5.  I don’t recall a championship game ever being that high.  While Denver and New England games tend to be shootouts (21-13 to the OVER combined this season), I believe the circumstances here will result in a lower-scoring game than the number suggests.

Recommended Plays:

I’m a contrarian at heart, which means going against the obvious.

Accordingly, I’m making four wagers this week, based in part on the principle of numbers gravitating towards the mean, which is a scoring total of about 42 points for an average NFL game.  In other words, I like the game everyone thinks will be low scoring to go higher, and the projected high scoring game to go lower.  But game totals will not get my betting action, because there’s more attractive props in the first half.

SFO/SEA:  I’m looking for at least one of the teams to out up a strong offensive performance.  Given the strong coaching, I believe both teams know they must think outside the box.  It can’t simply be left to a Lynch vs. Gore contest, dominated by the ground games.  I’m looking for the 49ers wide receivers to be key play makers here (even though I still don’t have much regard for Kaeprnick).  If this happens, Seattle may be forced to play a more up-tempo game and put the ball in the air more.  So, I’ll go OVER a low total.. particularly in the first half, where the number rests on 19.5.  I will also wager in the SFO team total to eclipse 9 points.  That’s the current total, which looks to carry value.

HUGELY IMPORTANT:  You must get OVER 19.5 here, and not 20.  In other words, we must capture the win on the 20, which is a key number.  We’re taking advantage of a possible 10-10 tie at halftime, or any other multiple where the total lands on 20.

I’m avoiding he game total, even though I think OVER is probably the right side.  Reason is, if this game becomes lopsided, the running attacks of both teams are so strong, the clock could be milked significantly by the leading team in the second half

FIRST HALF TOTAL:  OVER 19.5 — Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000

FIRST HALF TEAM TOTAL:  San Francisco OVER 9 points — Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000

NWE/DEN:  In the other game, everyone expects a shootout.  That might happen.  But if so, I expect more points to come in second half when both defenses will be badly worn down.  Clearly both QBs will throw 50+ times.  However, I can’t see everything clicking for both offenses from the starting kickoff.  Given we have a first half total of total of 28, that means four touchdowns are needed for a push, or a TD scored about every 7:30.  Second half is more likely to have this happen.  So, I’ll fade the projections of this high number early and bet UNDER.  Since I don’t think points will be as easy to come by early, that also puts a premium on the dog in the first quarter.  New England is listed at +.5 (half point) with vig at -115.  This looks like a toss up and if Denver comes out sloppy, then we’re headed to the bank by taking Patriots.  That’s where the edge exists, getting a half point in the first 15 minutes.

FIRST HALF TOTAL:  UNDER 28 — Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000

FIRST QUARTER:  NEW ENGLAND +.5 (-115) — Wagering $805 to win $700

……………..

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 FINAL NFL SEASON RECORD

98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

ENDING BANKROLL:  $13,460.

NET GAIN:  + $3,460

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  14-7-0