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Posted by on Sep 30, 2012 in Blog, Sports Betting | 0 comments

NFL Plays — Week 4

 

Tom Landry and Don Meredith, Dallas Cowboys

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED SEASON RECORD

21 WINS – 18 LOSSES – 0 PUSHES —– (+ 6.2 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $10,620.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  2-0-0

The New Orleans Saints are killing me.  Down about 15 units on that team alone this season.  Still, we’re slightly in the profit column (+6.2 percent for the season) heading into Week 4.

Ten plays.  Wagering $3,770. this week.

Note:  All wagers are for amusement-purposes only.  I bear no responsibility for those who may decide to follow my plays.

 

LAST WEEK’S POSTED PICKS:

FIRST QUARTER WAGER — TAMPA / DALLAS OVER 9.5 (-110) — 2 units…..WON

GAME SIDE — San Diego -3 vs. Atlanta (-110) — 2 units…..LOST

GAME SIDE — Cleveland +3 vs. Buffalo (-120) — 2 units…..LOST

GAME TOTAL — St. Louis / Chicago OVER 43 (-110) — 3 units…..LOST

GAME TOTAL — Houston / Denver OVER 44.5 (-120) — 1 unit…..WON

GAME TOTAL — Philadelphia / Arizona OVER 42 (-110) — 4 units…..LOST

GAME TOTAL — Pittsburgh / Oakland UNDER 45 (-110) — 3 units…..LOST

FIRST-HALF — St. Louis +4.5 vs. Chicago (-110) — 4 units…..LOST

FIRST-HALF — Cincinnati +2.5 vs. Washington (-110) — 2 units…..WON

FIRST HALF — BET BET OF THE WEEK:  Arizona +3 vs. Philadelphia (-110) — 4 units…..WON

6-POINT TWO-TEAM TEASER:  Miami +8.5 / New Orleans -3 (-110) — 2 units…..LOST

6-POINT TWO-TEAM TEASER:  Dallas -2 / New Orleans -3 (-110) — 3 units…..LOST

 

THIS WEEK’S PICKS:

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Posted by on Sep 22, 2012 in Blog, Sports Betting | 2 comments

NFL Week 3 — Plays

 

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED SEASON RECORD 17 WINS – 10 LOSSES – 0 PUSHES —– (+ 23.8 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $12,380.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  1-0-0

Monster result last week — posting a W-L record of 13 wins and 2 losses.  Net gain of +32.6 units.  This is about as strong a week as you will ever see in the NFL.  Be warned — my win percentages will not stay at 66 percent.

Wagering $3,220. this week.

Note:  All wagers are for amusement-purposes only.  I bear no responsibility for those who may decide to follow my plays.

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Posted by on Sep 15, 2012 in Blog, Sports Betting | 3 comments

NFL Week 2 — Plays

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED SEASON RECORD 4-8-0 —– (minus 8.8 units)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $9,120

1 UNIT = $100

Bad start with wrong side of New Orleans-Washington game, which killed three big teasers.  Coming back this week with some bigger weapons, making the NY Giants the key team in the wheel of multiple teasers. 

Wagering $4,200 this week.

 

THIS WEEK’S PLAYS:

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Posted by on Aug 14, 2012 in Blog, Sports Betting | 0 comments

Nolan Dalla — Updating My NFL Halftime Betting Angles

 

Nolan Dalla

After a Buffalo Bills game in 1998

 

AN UPDATE (ENTERING 2012 REGULAR SEASON):

In 2001, I spent the entire summer creating my halftime betting angles, which could be applied across the board to all NFL regular season and playoff games.

I released these betting angles at a major sports betting information website.  The angles were later re-printed numerous times in several other betting forums and publications.

These seven betting angles hit in the 53-60 percent rate over two decades.  They actually performed even better after their public release — hitting around 62 percent in both 2001 and 2002.  There were about 4 to 5 plays per week, so not only were these angles extremely profitable, they also produced a fair amount of volume.  Best of all, these was absolutely no handicapping involved.

The downside to releasing and popularizing these halftime betting angles is many football bettors gradually caught on to them.  They began to lose value as heavy money poured in every time there was a play.  Opening halftime lines began changing.  Totals moved by a point, or move.  For instance, we never used to see anything below a 17 as a second-half total.  Now, 16s are commonplace.

Over the course of the next few seasons (2003 and beyond), the sportsbooks/oddsmakers caught on to these angles and began adjusting their numbers so much that betting these angles blindly was no longer profitable.

Moreover, two trends in recent years have severely hurt the angles.  First, NFL rule changes tend to favor offenses which creates more scoring.  Second, NFL quarterback play is now at its all-time historic pinnacle, which kills opportunities to bet second-half UNDERS.

Unlike what I first released ten years ago, I do not have confidence that all of these angles will produce a profit.  However, I am posting them here for consideration if anyone wants to tinker with them, try and refine them, or run the W-L results since 2005.  Some bettors have told me that some of these angles (mostly the OVERS) are still profitable.  But I have not run the actual the data.  So, tread with caution.

You will please forgive one disclaimer.  I put in a massive number of hours doing research coming up with these angles.  Over the years, many writers and fellow football handicappers have purged them without proper attribution.  All I ask is to be credited with doing the research.  I think that’s fair.

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED — MAY BE REPRINTED ONLY IF AUTHOR IS CREDITED

 

PART 1: GENERAL THOUGHTS

Just as there are “key” numbers is side betting and game totals, there are also key numbers in second-half totals.  The key numbers are as follows: 17, 20, and 24.

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