NFL Plays — Week 14
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD
76 WINS – 65 LOSSES – 4 PUSHES —– (+ 48.65 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $14,865.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 10-3-0
I’m coming off a brutal week where I lost -11.2 units (-18.2 units were lost on Sunday). First quarter wagers have been deadly last three weeks, with inept offenses wiping out substantial profits. I’ll be much more selective about these trap wagers in the closing weeks of the regular season. Reducing some exposure on these first-quarter plays and going a bit heavier on sides and totals.
Shorter write ups today. Apologies to readers for not doing more writing on these games. But the plays have been handicapped and look very strong. It’s 4 am on Saturday night, and I have to get some rest. So the narrative will be kept to a minimum. Here it goes….
BALTIMORE +1 vs. WASHINGTON (-110) for 6 units
This is a horrible spot for Redskins, winners of three straight division games. I’ve been bullish on ‘Skins all season and view them as a legitimate team with a bright future. But this is the week things could get dogshit ugly. As much as I like and admire QB Griffith, one gets the feeling he’s been a little lucky the last three games and now faces a defense that’s going to cause him big problems. Moreover, Ravens are coming off a bitter loss in a game they should have won (Pittsburgh) and now must keep winning to stay ahead of two solid rivals in the division. I’d love to see Washington win this game, but I see a major fall here in what could be their worst game of the season. Intangible: “Road game” for Ravens is just 30 miles away.
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON UNDER 47.5 (-110) for 4 units
Ravens defense has been exceptional during the last four games. I think they’ll pretty much shut down Redskins offense and win a game that lands somewhere in the 30s. Some concern with betting Ravens as a side, but love them as a champion of the UNDER, given their offense has scored in the teens three straight weeks. Also love getting the hook on the 47, which is a key number of totals betting.
TENNESSEE / INDIANAPOLIS OVER 46.5 (-110) for 4 units
This total has dropped two points since the opener. Why? Fuck if I know. I’m convinced the line is moving the wrong way. I see lots of passing here, and at least one team that could score 30-40 points by themselves. The Titans defense is atrocious.
JACKSONVILLE +3 vs. NY JETS (-125) for 5 units
Jacksonville does play good games once in a while, and this looks to be the week. No need to get into Jets bashing which could fill this page, but I can’t see why this sorry-ass team would be favored over anyone on the road at the moment.
BUFFALO -3 vs. ST. LOUIS (-110) for 4 units
Rams are coming off a false home win where the offense was shut down for 58 minutes and got very lucky in OT playing versus clueless Kaepernick. The Rams have been a bad road team for a long time and are facing a Bills’ team playing its second straight at home in what could be cold weather, I’ll lay the -3 with confidence.
CINCINNATI -3.5 vs DALLAS (-110) for 3 units
I liked Bengals earlier in the week when listed at -3, and now with the tragedy (player killed on Saturday) that could be an emotional intangible. But Dallas is a phony team with a lousy coach and a mistake-prone QB with overrated wideouts and absolutely no running game. Facing a very hot Cincy team that’s won four straight, I’ll lay the number.
ATLANTA -3.5 vs CAROLINA (-110) for 7 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>
Give me the 11-1 Falcons playing against the NFL’s most overrated QB and a soft team with a lousy W-L record that was very fortunate to play two horrible opponents its last two games (Philadelphia and Kansas City) — and now has to play a real team this week. Huge step up in class. I don’t ever like laying points on the road, especially in a division game, but Falcons are coming off ten days rest and don’t appear to be letting up on locking up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Falcons defense gave Drew Brees fits last week. How is Fig Newton going to fare any better? Blowout potential.
MIAMI +10.5 vs. SAN FRANCISCO (-110) for 5 units
I’m fading QB Kaepernick until I own the Las Vegas Strip or go broke — whichever comes first. I’m no fan of Alex Smith, but the guy that replaced him is a fraud. Kaepernick is going to ruin the 49ers playoff run if he’s calling the plays. All one must do is look at his diminishing results last few games (it was 49ers defense that won the game two weeks ago, and then Kaepernick ended up being singularly responsible for loss to Rams last week). The final few drives in last weeks game showed Kaepernick looking like a blind deer in the headlines. Meanwhile, Miami should come in here with a “nothing to lose” attitude after getting their asses kicked by New England last week, and I think that keeps them in the game, at least within single digits.
NY GIANTS -5 vs. NEW ORLEANS (-110) for 5 units
I love betting on good, well-coached teams coming off a division loss. They know what it takes to win and are easily motivated in next game. This is even better when the opponent has probably given up for the season (Saints are dead after that loss in Atlanta). New Orleans replacement coaching has been atrocious and I simply can’t see them getting the Saints ready for a cold weather game in New York, versus a team that must keep winning to stay ahead of its two rivals. Last home game, Giants buried the Packers. I expect the same thing to happen here.
FIRST HALF WAGER: KANSAS CITY / CLEVELAND OVER 19.5 (-110) for 4 units
I got buried by the bitch-ass Browns betting them OVER on two wagers last week. But I think these two sad sack shits put up enough points to at least hit the 20 mark in a half of football. If not, I’m going to run out of profanities by middle of the second quarter.
1Q: KANSAS CITY/CLEVELAND OVER 7 (-120) for 5 units
At least one of these ringworm offenses can score a touchdown, right?
1Q: PITTSBURGH/SAN DIEGO OVER 7 (-125) for 5 units
Rothlesberger is back. That should boost the Steelers’ productivity. Chargers have probably given up since there’s talk Spanos is finally going to fire Turner and the GM (he’s about four years too late). I’m thinking this could translate into a “go through the motions” game for Chargers, hopefully on defense.
1Q: CHICAGO/MINNESOTA OVER 7 (-125) for 5 units
I’ll take the bait. Bears’s defense has not played nearly as well on road. Meanwhile, Bears coming off loss last week should be in sour mood and hopefully put up some early points.
LAST WEEK’S PLAYS:
CLEVELAND / OAKLAND OVER 38 (-110) — for 6 units….LOST
6-POINT TEASER: SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 / WASHINGTON +9 (-110) — for 5 units…..LOST
FIRST HALF: PITTSBURGH/BALTIMORE OVER 17 (-120) — for 5 units…..WON
1Q: CHICAGO/SEATTLE OVER 7 (-120) — for 4 units…..PUSH
1Q: ARIZONA/NY JETS OVER 7 (-120) — for 4 units…..LOST
1Q: BALTIMORE/PITTSBURGH OVER 7 (-135) — for 3 units…..LOST
1Q: CLEVELAND/OAKLAND OVER 7 (-125) — for 6 units…..LOST
1Q: WASHINGTON + .5 (-135) — for 4 units…..WON
ATLANTA -3.5 vs. NEW ORLEANS (-110) — for 7 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — WON