Could I Win the NFL SuperConest? (yes, with lots of luck)

“Don’t worry about anything else, just make good decisions.”

Now, it’s crunch time.

After 17 weeks, most of the NFL season completed, and lots of lucky breaks and bad beats along the way, just one more weekend of games remains.

No matter what happens, this will likely end up as my best season since posting free NFL picks here at my website, which began back in 2012. I’m guaranteed to have my 9th winning season in 12 years, and potentially biggest payout ever. However, things at times were frustrating. I stopped posting my analysis and picks earlier this year when my website traffic inexplicably declined, despite posting a 138-112-3 (net +$1,900) record. That caused me to focus more heavily on my entries in the handicapping contest, and since then, my results have been beyond what anyone could have hoped to achieve.

Yes, there is some chance to win the 2023-24 Westgate SuperContest, which is the longest-running NFL handicapping contest in the world. This was my first year to enter, and the overall results have been staggering. We already won $25,000 in a mini-contest (ending in Week 12). And, there’s a very good chance at cashing on multiple tickets in the main contest. There’s even some chance at winning it all, though the odds are long.

There were 1,301 entries this year. I took seven entries (as part of a betting syndicate). All of those entries currently rank in the top-125. Three rank in the top-22.

It’s no exaggeration to say that every game in now worth $10,000+. The difference between first place and second place is $100,000. Here’s a more detailed update.

MAIN CONTEST UPDATE:

With one week to go, and 5 picks to make, we currently have two tickets in the top-5. We now stand in 4th place and 5th place (each spot pays it’s own prize……this would be about $25,000 and $20,000 for each respective spot (not sure of exact figures, which aren’t posted yet), that is, if the contest ended today. Good news is, if we can hold these spots, it’s a solid payoff. Bad news is, it will be very tough to catch first place or move up any higher than third-place. Also, we have another ticket (#3) that could sneak in and cash, which is now tied for 22nd place. But only the top-20 get paid. We also have one ticket in about 50th place, that could cash if it goes 5-0 next week (long shot).

Here’s the Top-30:

SECOND-HALF CONTEST UPDATE:

With one week to go, and only 5 more picks to make, we have two tickets in contention for the second-half contest. One ticket stands alone in 2nd place. It’s only half a point from first place (1st pays $75,000, 2nd pays $40,000). The other ticket could climb into the money, but will need 4-1 or 5-0 to have a shot. Obviously, TICKET 3 (on both contests) is monumentally huge. A big day could make this ticket pay out $100,000 between the two contests.

Here’s the Top 15 in the second-half contest.

SUMMATION:

A dream scenario is for Ticket #3 to go 5-0, and the three contestants above me go 2-3 or worse. THAT WOULD RESULT IN MORE THAN A QUARTER OF A MILLION DOLLARS IN PRIZE MONEY, since that ticket would win $200K + $75K, at a minimum. But realistically, just holding these positions and perhaps moving up a bit, and also getting a third ticket into the money would be a huge success, especially considering the odds against this scenario happening when the season began back in early September.

As far as strategy goes, I’ll discuss that later after making and posting the final weeks picks. I know many people like to follow, so I’ll post the picks on Facebook. I might even make a short video explanation of my reasoning behind making various picks.

At this time, I’m reminded of the wise words of one of my mentors in gambling (and poker) from years ago. His advice applies as much to life as it does to games of chance. The late Barry Tanenbaum, who died in 2012 the year I began posting here, used to say — “don’t worry about anything else, just make good decisions.”

SEE BARRY TANENBAUM TRIBUTE VIDEO I MADE IN 2012 HERE

I hope to make good decisions.