2025 NFL Analysis and Picks: Wild Card Playoff Week
2025 NFL: WILD CARD PLAYOFF WEEK — ANALYSIS AND PICKS
2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 163
LOSSES — 123
PUSH — 7
NET WIN/LOSS — +$2,445
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 9-4-0 (+$450)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $12,445.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]
(Note: 2 futures bets are still pending)
CAR-TB: Full-Game Side — Carolina +3 (-120)…W
CAR-TB: Full-Game Total — UNDER 44 (-115)…W
CLE-CIN: Full-Game Side — Cincinnati -7.5…L
NOR-ATL: Full-Game Side – New Orleans +3.5 (-115)…W
NOR-ATL: Player Prop – NOR QB Slough OVER 229.5 passing yards…W
NOR-ATL: Player Prop – NOR Slough OVER 20.5 pass completions (-115)…W
TEN-JAX: Player Prop — TEN QB Ward OVER 20.5 completions (-120)…L (injured in 1Q but still graded as a loss)
DAL-NYG: First Half Team Total — Dallas OVER 13.5 points…L
DAL-NYG: Full-Game Line — Dallas -3.5…L
ARZ-LAR: Player Prop — ARZ QB Brissett to throw an interception–YES (-155)…W
IND-JAX: Team Prop — Houston to make longest FG (-130)…W
MIA-NWE: First-Half Line — New England -6.5…W
MIA-NWE: Full-Game Line — New England -10.5…W
THE FUTURE IS NOW (PENDING SEASON-LONG BETS):
Futures Bet — Drake Maye to win MVP (-365)
Futures Bet — Mike Vrabel to win Coach of the Year (+105)
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG
CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Fri. night.
ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WILD CARD WEEK:
I don’t pretend to know any more than anyone else. Analyzing NFL games is always a challenge, and playoffs match-ups can be even tougher. At this stage of the season, games get more intense. The numbers are tighter. Any outlier values are rare and get quickly pounded into place by opportunistic bettors who are fast to identify value and seize upon breaking news.
Instead, give me the “boring” games in mid-season which have at least a few player props, team totals, and even game odds mostly overlooked by the mass-betting public. Playoff games don’t offer many off-priced numbers. Moreover, the Super Bowl may be the worst game of all to bet on. There – I said it. I’d prefer to have 16 regular games any given week on my betting menu, half of them non-competitive, rather than six possible “thrilling” games with excitement. Hey, that’s just me.
So, take this under advisement, as true betting risk/gain percentages become lower in the postseason. In fact, the WORST thing any bettor can do is bet *more* this time of year, just because the games are more meaningful. That’s terrible reasoning, and often a recipe to get buried.
– SATURDAY GAMES –
LA RAMS vs. CAROLINA
The LA Rams are the biggest favorite of the opening round, by far. In fact, they are the biggest road favorite in NFL postseason history. LAR opened up as -10 point favorites, even though they’re on the road. That line is now up to -10.5 in many places. This is enough line movement to make me pounce on the underdog. I just can’t pass up unknown territory and lots of added line value. When we factor in possible inclement weather outdoors in January, which is in the forecast, taking the home dog with the points looks like the right side in this matchup.
Let’s state the obvious: LAR are certainly in the conversation as one of the NFL’s best teams. But I suspect this line is more a reaction to the weak opposition, which is the very lucky and mediocre 8-9 Carolina, an inconsistent fluke of a team which finished atop in a woeful division. Carolina hobbled into the playoffs losing 3 of their last 4 down the stretch. They were outscored by -69 points versus opponents this season. The Panthers scored fewer points than all but two NFL teams–Cleveland and NY Jets. That’s some shitty company and a scary thought for those who are betting on them.
Wait. It looks even worse for Carolina. When looking at the Panthers’ 8 victories, we see just 2 quality wins. One was beating the Rams. The other was a shocking upset at Green Bay, when the Packers were healthier. When Carolina played other opponents with winning records, they….
– lost by 16 to Jacksonville
– lost by 29 to New England
– lost by 31 to Buffalo
– lost by 11 to San Francisco
– lost by 17 to Seattle
Wow, those numbers are ugly. All I see above are losses by double digits. So, laying -10.5 seems within reason for those leaning towards the LA Rams.
But for all the apparent disparity between these teams, there’s that quirky result that played out on this same field on Nov 30th, when Carolina shocked the Rams in a 31-28 upset. That win ended the Rams’ six-game win streak. Perhaps the Rams overlooked Carolina and were taken off-guard. That certainly won’t happen again this time around.
What could play in Carolina’s favor here is there’s no expectation on them to win. All the pressure is on the Rams, who are expected to advance, and do so convincingly. LA Rams look unbeatable in domes, but have fared less well outdoors, where they lost 4 games season. Home underdogs in playoff games are also on a tear, covering about 75 percent of the time in the last decade. In short, it’s a whole new season and apparently (read this carefully….) TOO MUCH EMPHASIS MAY BE PLACED ON REGULAR SEASON data. I know, this data is all we have. Yet, the dogs barking at home in playoff games has been a trend worth considering.
I also like the fact that the whole world seems to be on the LA Rams this week, even as the big favorite. I rarely look at other write-ups, but they’re all pretty much regurgitating the same script. I echoed many of those points above. All of this creates a mob mentality. The line inflates. So, purely from a contrarian value standpoint, the Panthers are the wise play. That doesn’t mean they’ll cover, of course. It just means that if you put emphasis on numbers and dispel the myth of public wisdom, Carolina getting +10.5 becomes a mandatory wager.
If it rains (and that’s a possibility in Saturday’s forecast), that probably helps Carolina and it certainly helps the UNDER. I’m betting UNDER 46.5 given some powerful trends. Consider this: All six Wild Card games this week are played in outdoor stadiums (hooray!!!!! — please, no more domes!!!!!). Since 2004, outdoor Wild Card games are 49-23 (68 percent) to the UNDER. That’s an incredible stat. And borrowing a stat from Action Network: At O/U 41 points or higher in those outdoor Wild Card games, are 42-14 to the UNDER. We can’t ignore data this powerful.
The magic number here for the Rams is *28*. If they score more than 28 points, we can’t win both bets. But, 28 points or fewer guarantees at least one of these bets wins. I’d love nothing more than to see a slugfest in the rain, have Carolina rush the ball effectively to burn some clock time, and the final to land somewhere in the 24-20 zone, probably with the Rams winning a tougher game than was expected.
Two Wagers:
Full-Game Line — Carolina +10.5
Full-Game Total — UNDER 46.5 points
FINAL LIST OF PICKS FOR PLAYOFFS / WILD CARD WEEK
(For those who just want the picks)
LAR-CAR: Full-Game Line — Carolina +10.5
LAR-CAR: Full-Game Total — UNDER 46.5 points
GB-CHI: Full-Game Total – UNDER 45 points
BUF-JAX: Full-Game Line — Jacksonville (pick)
BUF-JAX: First-half Line — Jacksonville (pick)
SFO-PHI: Full-Game Total – UNDER 44.4 points
LAC-NWE: Player Prop — LAC QB Herbert to throw an interception–YES (-130)
HOU-PIT: First-Half Line — Pittsburgh +2.5 (-115)
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG
CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Fri. night.
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