2025 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 6

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2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 40
LOSSES — 37
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — – $275.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 8-7-0 (+ $5)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,725.
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[ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE]

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]

Player Prop: SFO K Pineiro OVER 1.5 successful field goals (-115)…W
Minnesota / Cleveland OVER 36 points–full game…W
Philadelphia -3.5 (-115) vs. Denver….L
New Orleans -1.5 vs. NY Giants….W
Player Prop: NYG QB Dart UNDER 173.5 passing yards….L
Player Prop: NOR RB Kamara OVER 14.5 rushing attempts (-125)….L
Player Prop: NOR RB Kamara OVER 58.5 rushing yards….L
NY Jets +2.5 vs. Dallas….L
Player Prop: NYJ QB Fields OVER 188.5 passing yards….W
Houston -2 vs. Baltimore….W
Player Prop: LVR QB Smith to throw an interception–YES (-130)….W
Arizona -7.5 vs. Tennessee…L
Player Prop: ARZ QB Murray OVER 29.5 rushing yards (-115)…L
WAS / LAC — Both Kickers Successful 33+ yard FGs–YES (-130)…W
New England +8 vs. Buffalo (-105)…W

GENERAL THOUGHTS HEADING INTO WEEK 6:

Popular picks have been getting torched so far this season. According to the Action Network’s internal betting data, teams with 60 percent or higher measured by the number of tickets on those teams, are a dreadful 13-30 ATS through NFL Week 5. That’s the worst ATS mark for public bettors in the 23-year history of their tracking database.

In fact, 2025 continues a downward trend for the public teams and their results. Just in the last two seasons, teams with 60 percent of tickets and higher went 30-57-1 ATS (only 35 percent wins) in the first five weeks of the year.

Here’s more surprising information: Teams with 70 percent of tickets this season are a horrendous 3-13 ATS, including an abysmal 0-7 ATS when those teams are playing at home. The lesson here from the data seems obvious. Avoid popular public picks each week, or at least use the fade technique as a starting point in handicapping. I’ll certainly be leaning towards the unpopular teams in the coming weeks..

This powerful trend isn’t just applicable to sportsbook cash wagers. Contest players have also been getting burned. The consensus picks in the top two weekly NFL handicapping contests — Circa Millions and the Westgate SuperContest – are hitting just 42 percent after five weeks. So, fading these popular choices has been a winning strategy for those who have been the ultimate contrarians.

Now, let’s move on to NFL Week 6.

ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 6:

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.

PHILADELPHIA -7.5 vs. NY GIANTS (O/U: 40.5] [Thursday Night]

Picking either side looks tough to predict. Laying the extra half point off of the touchdown on Philadelphia -7.5 is the kind of mistake that can burn bankrolls. I especially don’t like laying this kind of chalk in divisional games (recall last Thursday night’s SFO-LAR game as a prime example…laying the points seemed too easy). Add the short week, which could add to unpredictability, and I’m avoiding the pointspread.

The Eagles have looked underwhelming and inconsistent, even at 4-1 SU, but obviously they have a big edge in talent and experience over the Giants. It just depends on which Eagles team will show up. Instead, I’ll concentrate on a few prop wagers. This is because the Giants offensive game plan may be easier to figure out.

I considered several props. The best on the board appears to be related to NYG RB Skattebo. I like his props to go OVER — particularly on rushing attempts and yardage. The Giants WRs are in terrible shape. Star gamebreaker Nabers is now out for the year and the other WR Slayton is out for this game. This means the NYG offense has few skill position players to target. Accordingly, look for a steady diet of rushes and short high-percentage passes from QB Dart (who has a 65 pct. completion rate, but dreadfully low 5.2 YPC, one of the lowest marks in the NFL). He’s making just his third career start, though in both opening drives in his previous two games, the Giants scored a TD, showing solid preparation.

Rookie RB Skattebo should carry most of the workload on the ground in this game for the Giants. Combine this with the vulnerable Eagles’ defense, which has been below average in stopping the run this season. Skattebo is listed at 11.5 rushing attempts and 46.5 yards. He went 15 for 59 yards against the Saints last week. He also committed a critical fumble in the second half in the red zone that may have cost the Giants a go-ahead score. Afterwards, Skattebo apologized in the media and was given a huge vote of confidence by the Giants coaches and players. This shows the team knows he’ll play an increasingly bigger role in the offense and it’s important to keep up his spirits. I think that translates to a more determined effort this week and perhaps another steady number of opportunities. This is especially the case since the NYG don’t have much else on offense (which may allow the Eagles to stuff the run and force Dart into more throws–which admittedly is a concern).

Prior to that, Skattebo also had 25 carries in the upset win versus the Chargers, good for 79 yards. His other start shows 10 carries, good for 60 yards in a primetime loss to the Chiefs. His first game showed 11 carries for 45 yards. Still, that’s 63 carries for 240 yards in the four games he’s played….and those numbers should arc towards an upward tick. It’s important to note the other primary back in the NYG offense, Tyrone Tracy, has been injured the past few games. Reportedly as of Wed. afternoon, he’s likely to play Thursday night, but may not be at 100 percent. Even with him on the field and taking carries that could go to Skattebo, his projected yardage (O/U) at 22.5 shows betting markets expect he won’t go full-time. In fact, Tracy’s presence in the backfield could help Skattebo’s production since both will get carries.

The Eagles rank #22 in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 136 YPG. Those are uncharacteristically poor numbers for a Vic Fangio-coached D. Surprisingly, the Giants rank #13 in rushing offense, which is better than one would expect from a 1-4 SU team that usually has to abandon the rushing attack late in games because they’re behind.

I think there’s another here to expect Skattebo to surpass 11.5 rushing touches and also go over 46.5 yards. Note that since Tracy was announced as playing, Skattebo’s numbers dropped slightly.

Obviously, we want a close game and long drives with lots of plays by the Giants. I think we could get it. The Eagles don’t look like a team right now that’s ready to blow out an opponent, which would hurt NYG rushing stats.

Wagers:
Player Prop – NYG RB Skattebo OVER 11.5 rushing attempts (-120)
Player Prop – NYG RB Skattebo OVER 46.5 rushing yards (-115)

NY JETS vs. DENVER (-7) (O/U: 43.5) [at London]

The 0-5 Jets have been a horrible team through the first 3 quarters, but have also been a “great” 4th-quarter team. Go figure. Here’s a shocking fact: They are tied with Detroit as the “best” 4Q team in the NFL at 12.2 PPG. That’s not a stat you’re likely to see on many capper pages or podcasts, but we should pay attention to this oddity for betting purposes.

What happens is — the Jets behind in games then pad the stats and play catch up, frequently versus defenses that are happy to allow time-consuming drives and easy yards when the game is out of reach. As evidence, look at the stat line of NYJ QB Fields who looks to be on fire! He’s thrown for 4 TDs and 0 interceptions while posting a career-high 100.1 passer rating (he’s played in only three full games). Readers should immediately recognize the pattern here. The Jets are a horrible team, but do make the final scores look more respectable late. They also pad the stats. Let’s look for wagers where we might take advantage of that this week, especially against a team (Denver) which is likely to be leading in the second half and might even be capable of blowout, shown by their shocking come-from-behind in at Philadelphia last Sunday.

Fields is listed at O/U 199.5 passing yards. I bet him OVER last week, and on cue, Fields delivered with 283 yards passing. Prior, he threw for 226 at Miami in another comeback that fell short. Fields opened the season with 218 vs. Pittsburgh. That’s three passing yardage numbers that sailed OVER the total. Let’s credit Denver’s top-10 defense, but they still allow 200 YPG passing to opponents, and that includes a couple of QB clunkers (the backup for Cincy and the rookie for Tenn). I expect Fields to toss for something in the 200s, no matter how this game plays out.

I’ll also bet the Jets in the 4th quarter in the pregame line, which is NYJ +1.5 points. I wrote above about NYJ’s strong numbers late in games. Defensively, the Jets’ 4Q numbers are also strong (but misleading), as they fare well against offenses that are just trying to run the ball, burn the clock, and go home with a win.

Wagers:
Player Prop — NYJ QB Fields OVER 199.5 passing yards
4th Quarter Only — NYJ +1.5 (-110)

DALLAS (-3) vs. CAROLINA (O/U: 49)

Carolina is tempting to bet on at home, getting points. The Panthers are 2-0 ATS and SU at home this season, and do seem to play much better in Charlotte than on the road. However, I’m wary about a terrible Carolina pass defense that surrenders massive yardage, despite playing against lackluster offenses, so far. Dallas could tag 40 on the Panthers they way they’ve been playing and I don’t know if the cats can keep up. I’m also concerned about a team that fell behind 0-17 last week against Miami. Credit the kitties for an impressive comeback and win, but that reveals the problems with Carolina on both sides of the ball that do remain problematic.

As is the case in the NYJ-DEN game, this could be an ideal spot to play the underdog home team – but only getting points in the 4th quarter. We presume Dallas could be leading, or if things really get out of hand (recall last week’s game DAL at NYJ), the trailing team scores a fair number of “trash” points. Not sure how this game breaks, but the Panthers getting .5 on the 4Q line looks attractive.

Note that Carolina ranks 4th in the NFL at 10.2 PPG in the 4Q. Carolina also ranks #6 defensively in the last frame, allowing just 4.0 PPG. Contrast this with the Cowboys defense, among the league’s worst — allowing 10.8 PPG which ranks 28th. While this admittedly is a small data set, there’s still some evidence the Panthers continue to fight in the 4Q, even when losing games. Facing Dallas is often an extra motivation, and it would please the home fans to run up some points where they can get them, so I can see the Panthers covering this number in multiple ways.

Wager:
4th Quarter Only — CAR +0.5 (-110)

< Analysis and picks is updated regularly between Wed. and Sat. >

FINAL PICKS FOR THE WEEK:
[For those who just want the picks.]

Player Prop – NYG RB Skattebo OVER 11.5 rushing attempts (-120)…W
Player Prop – NYG RB Skattebo OVER 46.5 rushing yards (-115)…W
Player Prop — NYJ QB Fields OVER 199.5 passing yards
4th Quarter Only — NYJ +1.5 vs. DEN (-110)
4th Quarter Only — CAR +0.5 vs. DAL (-110)
First Half: CLE +3.5 vs. PIT (-115)
First-Half — ARZ/IND OVER 23.5 points (-115)
Full-Game Team Total — INDY OVER 26.5 points (-140)
LA Rams -7 vs. Baltimore (full-game)
Full-Game Total — LAR-BAL OVER 44.5
Parlay Pays 2.6-1 — Rams -7 / Over 44.5 points
LAR RB Williams OVER 72.5 yards rushing (-115)
Seattle (pick) vs. Jacksonville (full-game)
Player Prop: SFO RB McCaffrey OVER 54.5 receiving yards (-115)
Player Prop: NOR WR Olave OVER 56.5 receiving yards (-115)
Player Prop: JAX QB Lawrence to throw an interception–YES (-145)
Green Bay -14 vs. Cincinnati (full-game)

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.

2025 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 5

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2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 32
LOSSES — 30
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — -$280
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 3-7-0 (-$495)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,720

*****************************************************************

ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:

[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]

Seattle -1 vs. Arizona (Full Game Line)…W

Seattle OVER 10 points Team Total in First Half (-120)…W

ARZ QB Murray OVER 212.5 passing yards (-115)…L

Carolina +5.5 vs. New England (Full-Game)…L

Carolina +3 vs. New England (First-Half)…L

Tennessee / Houston Largest Lead of game UNDER 14.5…L

Player Prop: NOR QB Rattler OVER 11.5 yards rushing (-120)…W

NY GIants Team Total UNDER 17.5 Points (-105)…L

Packers / Cowboys: Both Teams to Make 33+ Yard FG–YES (-135)…L

Moneyline Parlay: Denver / LA Chargers (Risking 100 to win 72)…L

GENERAL THOUGHTS HEADING INTO WEEK 5:

I’m always interested in learning about the methodology of successful sports bettors. If you ask a dozen for their opinion (assuming you can find a dozen), you’ll probably get more than a few dozen answers. There is no “one size fits all,” no “magic bullet,” and no “golden goose.” Different things work for different handicappers and different times. Given how things change across the league – be it teams or players or other factors – adjustments have to be made. Constantly.

However, one aspect of handicapping does remain consistent. As long as we put in the requisite time and stay up-to-date with breaking news (such as injuries and weather reports), at some point extra work becomes redundant. Spending 10 hours handicapping a single ball game rather than 5 hours doesn’t mean the analysis (or wager) is twice as reliable. It doesn’t even mean it’s better, as in some cases digesting too much information can lead to confusion. At some point, we “max out” on what’s available in terms of public information. Once the data is read, and studied, and digested it makes no sense to keep on regurgitating the same data. You can’t keep on rebuilding the same mousetrap.

Case in point — last week’s Bengals at Giants game. Cincy was favored by 6.5 points playing at the NY Giants. From the opening kickoff, the 0-3 Giants out-played and out-coached the 3-0 Chargers. They won in a huge upset 21-18. Survival pools blew up everywhere. Oh, and the Giants started a rookie QB who took his first NFL snap against the league’s #4-ranked defense. Go figure.

Prior to that game, if you saw anything in the preliminary data that suggested the Giants were the correct side to bet, I’d sure like to hear about it. If you read a stat or had secret information that the Giants’ cover would never be seriously in question during the entire game, then please share that with us. You could have spent 5 hours, or 10 hours, or 40 hours studying that matchup and I don’t think anyone would find supportive material justifying confidence in the Giants, let alone predict them winning the game. If I’m wrong, please contact me and educate me about it.

I use this example to illustrate how researching games, making predictions, and posting write-ups does have limitations. There’s only so much you can do pre-game and no amount of extra work or crystal ball gazing is going to be able to predict inevitable upsets, or blocked kicks on the final play of the game that results in a touchdown and cover (recall the Rams-Eagles game in Week #3). We do the best we can as handicappers, and we just have to accept that some things are simply beyond our control.

What’s important is to keep trying, and perhaps learn from the things we see, and correct the mistakes we make — if we can identify them.

After a decent start to the season, I’ve returned to roughly the break-even mark, and am down a few units in wagering. Let’s now move on to this week’s schedule.

ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 5:

<<< SAN FRANCISCO vs. LA RAMS (Thurs.) >>>

The betting trends in support of a wager on the Rams in this NFC West matchup are overwhelming:

— San Francisco is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games.
— They are 4-8 SU in the last 12 games.
— 49ers are 1-4 ATS in last 5 games vs. LA Rams.
— LA Rams are 6-1 ATS in last 7 games.
— They are 9-3 SU in its last 12 games.
— Rams are 5-1 ATS in previous six home games.

So, every trend points to LAR minus the points.

Both teams are 3-1, but that’s deceiving. One has looked like a Super Bowl contender (the Rams could be 4-0 right now, except for the last-play disaster in Phila.). The other has struggled most of the season, and been wildly inconsistent, in part due to crippling injuries. What the heck is happening in San Francisco where year-after-year this team can’t stay healthy and loses so many key players? I don’t get it. (and I have a huge wager on SFO to win the NFC this season, so these injuries are devastating to me personally).

The Rams are laying -8 as of right now and as much as I want to take the huge underdog, I can’t do it. The line move from -5.5 (early line) up over a touchdown suggests QB Purdy will not start (this is being written 36 hours in advance).

One player prop jumps out at me. Let’s go with SFO kicker Pineiro to exceed 1.5+ successful field goals. Pineiro has only played three games for the 49ers this season, after some good years in Carolina (88.7 percent successful on FGs over his career). In 2025, he is perfect 7-for-7 kicking FGs, including a long of 51 yards. With the 49ers likely to be struggling due to injuries and possibly starting a backup QB Jones, that could create a more conservative offensive game plan, and a willingness to take points when they can with a kick. SFO bypassed a few chances to go for it on 4th down last week, showing this team is a bit more timid than were used to seeing with Shanahan-coached teams. Both games between the teams last season were decided by six points or fewer. If we get a close game again this time, that likely helps the over on FG props.

Wager:
Player Prop: SFO K Pineiro OVER 1.5 successful field goals (-115)

Final Picks for Week 1

(For those who just want the picks….)

Player Prop: SFO K Pineiro OVER 1.5 successful field goals (-115)…W
Minnesota / Cleveland OVER 36 points–full game
Philadelphia -3.5 (-115) vs. Denver
New Orleans -1.5 vs. NY Giants
Player Prop: NYG QB Dart UNDER 173.5 passing yards
Player Prop: NOR RB Kamara OVER 14.5 rushing attempts (-125)
Player Prop: NOR RB Kamara OVER 58.5 rushing yards
NY Jets +2.5 vs. Dallas
Player Prop: NYJ QB Fields OVER 188.5 passing yards
Houston -2 vs. Baltimore
Player Prop: LVR QB Smith to throw an interception–YES (-130)
Arizona -7.5 vs. Tennessee
Player Prop: ARZ QB Murray OVER 29.5 rushing yards (-115)
WAS / LAC — Will Both Kickers Have Successful 33+ yard FGs–YES (-130)
New England +8 vs. Buffalo (-105)

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.