2025 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 13

2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 102
LOSSES — 87
PUSH — 4
NET WIN/LOSS — +$445
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 7-5-2 (+$160)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,445.

ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]

Full-Game Total — BUF/HOU UNDER 43.5 points…W
Player Prop — HOU TE Schultz OVER 4.5 receptions (+105)…L
Player Prop — HOU TE Schultz OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-115)…L
INDY-KC: Full-Game Line — Kansas City -3 vs. Indianapolis (-120)…P
SEA-TEN: First-Half Team Total — Seattle OVER 13.5 points…W
ATL-NOR: Full-Game Line — New Orleans -2 vs. Atlanta…L
ATL-NOR: Player Prop — ATL RB Robinson UNDER 84.5 rushing yards (-115)…W
BAL-NYJ: Player Prop — BAL QB Jackson UNDER 35.5 rushing yards (-120)….W
JAX-ARZ: Full-Game Line — Arizona +3 vs. Jacksonville….P
JAX-ARZ: Player Prop — ARZ QB Brissett OVER 244.5 passing yards (-115)….W
PIT-CHI: Team Total — Chicago OVER 24….W
MIN-GB: Player Prop — Will QB McCarthy throw an interception–YES (-155)…W
NWE-CIN: Player Prop — CIN TE Fant OVER 3.5 receptions (+130)…L
NWE-CIN: Player Prop — CIN TE Fant OVER 24.5 yards (-115)…L

ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 13:

GB vs. DET [THUR]

Full-Game Total: UNDER 48.5

It’s counterintuitive to go UNDER in Detroit home games. After all, we know from recent seasons under coach Dan Campbell the Lions are a high-scoring offense that often takes risks. Yet surprisingly, Detroit is just 6-5 to the OVER this season. Green Bay is 5-6 to the OVER. So these two rivals’ totals do balance out. Which side prevails here and dictates the playbook? I believe with a short preparation week, a division rivalry, and two top-ten defenses, that’s enough evidence to bet UNDER 48.5. Also, recall Thursday games enjoy a slight edge in UNDERs historically — cashing slightly above 52 percent of the time. Last season, the three Thanksgiving games went 43-47-48 in scoring, which is about in line with league-wide scoring averages. However, the half point on the 48 in this matchup could be huge. The Lions hosted the Bears last season in this early annual Thanksgiving Day gobbler, winning 23-20. Green Bay’s #4-ranked defense is playing well. Detroit’s #10-ranked defense is certainly better than average. The Lions’ offense has looked very sluggish (for them) the last two home games — losing outright to Minnesota and get very lucky to win in a late comeback versus the lowly Giants. The Packers’ offense also continues to play inconsistently. Looks like a game that could land in the 23-20 or 24-20 or 27-20 range, which gives the edge to the low side of this total.

KC vs. DAL [THUR]

Full-Game Total: UNDER 52.5
Team Prop: Will both kickers make 33+ yard FGs–YES (-150)

The total opened at 51.5 in this game and it’s now up to 52.5. Perhaps it moves higher, but I’ll lock in this number now and go UNDER. Bettors may not have caught into some changes to both teams over the last few games. Dallas’ defense has improved lately, allowed 27-16-21 in its last three games. Of course, the Cowboys’ defense was horrid in the first 8 games of the season, so anything would be an improvement. That said, this unit may not be quite as bad now as they were earlier in the season. Combine this data with the Chiefs who have struggled over the course of the entire season, already with five losses. They’re just 1-4 SU away from Arrowhead. The Chiefs’ rushing attack has disappeared and they’re not making the big plays we’re used to watching. So, I’m confident this combination of factors (improving DAL defense and declining KC offense) should keep scoring in check. Let’s also add KC’s very good defense, which has allowed just one opponent this season to cross the 30-point mark (and that was due to a defensive score). This looks like a very high total, so I’m inclined to bet UNDER 52.5. /// Here’s something of contradiction to betting the UNDER–and that’s taking the kickers to make FGs. Actually, FGs may not hurt so much in a high-total game like this. DAL and KC boast two of the longest-range kickers in the NFL, so betting each of them to make a FG of 33 yards or longer seems like a reasonable expectation. KC’s Butker has kicked 33+ FGs in 8 of 11 games this season. DAL’s Aubrey has kicked 33+ FGs in 7 of 11 games this season. The lay price of -150 is slightly higher than the -130 standard vig, but I believe it’s justified given we have two proven kickers with some potential of offenses stalling in opposing territory. Indoors in the rubber grass helps the success rate, as well.

CIN vs. BAL [THUR]

Team Prop: CIN first-quarter team score OVER 3 points (-130)
Team Prop: CIN first-half team score OVER 10 points (-115)

The expectation is 2 offensive drives for each team in the 1Q, and perhaps 3 drives for the KO-receiving team (the overall NFL game average is about 12 possessions per team/per game). A *3* as a team scoring total, even with elevated vig can be a sucker bet, since it probably takes a touchdown to lose (yes, two FGs could happen). The NFL’s new KO rules have slightly increased first-drive scoring. Teams are starting with better field position, on average. This week, the Bengals’ offense sees the return of Joe Burrow, who has been out more than half the season. QB Flacco did a good job in the backup role, especially on the stats sheet. But Burrow is the franchise player and his return should lift the entire team. Cincy also gets WR Chase back in the lineup, coming back from a 1-game suspension. So, the Bengals’ offense should be ready to fire, even with some concern about Burrow’s possible rust factor. The Bengals are also scoring TDs in the red zone at a very strong rate (65 percent)….compared to Baltimore at just 47 percent of red zone trips. So, if Cincy moves the ball early, this offense often closes the drive with TDs. Credit the Ravens on a current 5-game win streak and a defense that’s clearly better now that they’re healthy. But a glance at the dogshit teams and QBs — Jets, Browns, Vikings, Dolphins — and let’s not get carried away. Cincinnati put up well above-average points even with an aged backup. Burrow seems likely to boost those numbers. Recall his success with the team in the later half of last season, when the Bengals offense was among the best in the league. The Bengals OVER 3 1Q and OVER 10 1H look like superior wagers to the CIN team total for the full-game, which is 21.5. Naturally, there’s some decent chance these bets will push on key numbers.

<<< MORE PICKS COMING >>>

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG

CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.

2025 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 12

2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 95
LOSSES — 82
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — +$285
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 7-4-2 (+$230)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,285

ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG

CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:

[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]

NYJ/NWE: Team Total — NYJ OVER 6.5 points [first-half] (-130)…W

Full-Game Line — Washington +3 vs. Miami…P

Full-Game Line — Green Bay -7 vs. NY Giants (-115)…P

Full-Game Line — Carolina +3.5 vs. Atlanta…W

Full-Game Line — Jacksonville +3 vs. LA Chargers (-115)…W

HOU-TEN — Player Prop — HOU RB Chubb OVER 32.5 rushing yards (-115)…L

BAL-CLE — Player Prop — BAL QB Jackson UNDER 37.5 rushing yards (-110)…W

CIN-PIT — Player Prop — CIN TE Fant OVER 23.5 yards (-115)…W

SFO-ARZ — Player Prop — ARZ PK Ryland OVER 6.5 points (-105)…L

KC-DEN — Full-Game Total — Kansas City/Denver UNDER 45…W

First-Quarter Line — Cincinnati +.5 vs. Pittsburgh (-130)…L

First-Half Line — Cincinnati +3.5 vs. Pittsburgh (-120)…L

Full-Game Line — Dallas -3 vs. Las Vegas…W

THOUGHTS THIS WEEK:

Question – Are Thursday Night Football games lower scoring than average?

Answer – ​​Stats show that in NFL Thursday Night Football games, the UNDER hits more often than the OVER. In all TNF games played since 2019, 46.8 percent have gone UNDER the closing total. Average scoring on Thursday nights is slightly lower than on other gamedays, with TNF games averaging 45.7 combined points versus 46.0 on other days. This .3 figure might seem insignificant, but given the margins (and helped by wise line shopping), it’s possible perhaps to extend the edge to 54-46, or perhaps even as high as 55-45 with a half or full point here or there. So, I believe UNDERs must be the starting point in TNF games, or at the very least — there needs to be compelling outliers to wager on OVERs

One interesting subset of TNF trends and totals from online data is the *decline* in O/U totals as the season progresses. Check out this data, which I found surprising (since 2019):

Weeks 1-5: 46.22 average total

Weeks 6-11: 45.40 average total

Weeks 12-17: 43.57 average total

Note that scoring variance also tends to be higher in TNF games. The standard deviation in point totals for TNF games was 14.6, compared to 13.7 for other games. The reasons for this is probably lower-quality play combined with shorter rest and preparation for teams playing on Thursdays, which apparently impacts the offenses more than defenses.

Given a small edge on this trend, combined with Houston’s strong defense, I’m betting UNDER 43.5 in this week’s TNF contest.

ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 12:

BUF vs. HOU (TNF)

Full-Game Total — BUF/HOU UNDER 43.5 points

Player Prop — HOU TE Schultz OVER 4.5 receptions (+105)

Player Prop — HOU TE Schultz OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-115)

Here’s an intriguing AFC matchup between two of last year’s division leaders now looking upward at first place and needing victories to stay alive in their respective races. Buffalo is 1.5 games behind New England. Houston is probably out of their division chase completely since they’re now 3 games back of Indy (and Jacksonville), but needs to win to stay in the wild card chase. The game means more to the Texans, but can they rise to the occasion and deliver?

Getting +5.5 points as the home dog is tempting. This is especially true given Houston’s defense, which is among the NFL’s best by any metric. I’m unsure if they’ll be able to handle the Bills’ prolific offense, but the Texans defense does rank #1 in PPF (16.9), #1 in YPG (259.1), and #2 in YPP (4.5). The Bills are in for a tough test, for sure.

The problem and the worry for bettors is Houston’s troubled offense, which has been inconsistent at best and embarrassingly bad at worst. The Texans’ 16-point production versus lowly Tennessee last week, in which they needed a last second FG to defeat one of the worst teams in the league, should be a huge red flag and a warning sign. Houston’s play-calling was atrocious in that game. The top RB (Banks) averaged just 2.8 YPC on 18 feeds. That’s shameful. Houston’s season-long struggles are, in part, due to a below-average offensive line. It’s hard to see how the Texans will be able to do much scoring, and if they fall behind to a team like Buffalo which can run up points, this team is in big trouble. I’m labeling the Jacksonville comeback win two weeks ago a fluke. Fact is, Houston is a 5-5 team that might be two wins either better or worse except for the vast disparity between a top-3 defense and a lousy offense.

I’m betting UNDER 43.5 based on Houston’s excellent defense, combined with their subpar offense. Note that in the Texans’ 5 losses, the defense still played well (most points allowed this season–27 to Seattle). That tells me the Texans will likely have to produce points also for this total to go OVER. I don’t think Houston will be able to score enough points, especially given the limitations we saw at Tennessee last Sunday.

I am betting two Houston player props, both relating to Tight End Dalton Schultz. Backup QB Mills appears to look to his TE as a favorite target – throwing to Schultz a whopping 20 times in the last two games. Schultz’s targets show 11-9-8-3-10 in his last five games, so he’s likely to get enough touches to surpass 4.5 catches. Receptions are also very favorable in the last five weeks, which shows 6-7-6-2-9 in those games. Getting +105 on the OVER is a nice bonus. Add a script where Houston might be playing from behind as the underdog, and Schultz’s numbers potentially look even better.

Given I like Schultz to catch 5+ passes, I’ll add a wager on his yardage prop – OVER 39.5 (-115). Even though Houston’s offense stinks, the TE position has been an above-average bright spot, as Schultz averages 48 receiving YPG. With Mills at QB, Schultz has over 100 yards the past two games, and his last five stat line shows – 51-53-77-24-98. Exceeding 39.5 doesn’t seem like too much to ask given his recent history.

Note that Schultz has reportedly been limited in practice, with a “shoulder injury.” Official designations come out Wednesday. Yet, report’s been pretty much the same for each of the last four games, and he’s played through any discomfort. Given that Houston really needs to win each week and with a 10-day rest coming up, and Buffalo will certainly be a tough foe, there’s no way Schultz isn’t taking the field as the starter and getting action, so long as he can walk.

<<<Picks and analysis updated Wed-Sat>>>>

FINAL PICKS FOR WEEK 12:

(For those who just want the picks):

Full-Game Total — BUF/HOU UNDER 43.5 points…W
Player Prop — HOU TE Schultz OVER 4.5 receptions (+105)…L
Player Prop — HOU TE Schultz OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-115)…L
INDY-KC: Full-Game Line — Kansas City -3 vs. Indianapolis (-120)
SEA-TEN: First-Half Team Total — Seattle OVER 13.5 points
ATL-NOR: Full-Game Line — New Orleans -2 vs. Atlanta
ATL-NOR: Player Prop — ATL RB Robinson UNDER 84.5 rushing yards (-115)
BAL-NYJ: Player Prop — BAL QB Jackson UNDER 35.5 rushing yards (-120)
JAX-ARZ: Full-Game Line — Arizona +3 vs. Jacksonville
JAX-ARZ: Player Prop — ARZ QB Brissett OVER 244.5 passing yards (-115)
PIT-CHI: Team Total — Chicago OVER 24
MIN-GB: Player Prop — Will QB McCarthy throw an interception–YES (-155)
NWE-CIN: Player Prop — CIN TE Fant OVER 3.5 receptions (+130)
NWE-CIN: Player Prop — CIN TE Fant OVER 24.5 yards (-115)

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG

CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.

2025 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 11

2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 88
LOSSES — 78
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — +$55
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 6-8-0 (-$295)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,055

ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:

[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]

LVR/DEN: Player Prop — LVR QB Smith OVER .5 interceptions (-165)…W

LVR/DEN: Player Prop — DEN TE Engram UNDER 3.5 recepts (-115)…W

ATL/IND: Full-Game Line — Atlanta +6.5…W

ATL/IND: First-Half Line — Atlanta +3.5…W

ATL/IND: Full-Game Total — ATL/IND UNDER 48.5…L

BAL/MIN: Full-Game Line – Baltimore -4 (-105)…W

NWE/TB: Player Prop — NWE QB Maye OVER 21.5 completions (-115)…L

NOR/CAR: Full-Game Line — Carolina -5.5…L

NOR/CAR: Player Prop — CAR RB Hubbard OVER 20.5 yards (-115)…L

NYG/CHI: Full-Game Total — NYG/CHI UNDER 47…W

BUF/MIA: Player Prop — BUF QB Allen to score touchdown–YES (-125)…L

ARZ/SEA: First-Half Line — Arizona +3.5 (even)…L

ARZ/SEA: First-Half Team Total — Arizona OVER 9.5…L

ARZ/SEA: Full-Game Line — Arizona +7…L

 

THOUGHTS THIS WEEK:

The toughest thing in sports handicapping is jumping back into action following a losing week. All the work we’ve done recently not only produced zero profits, we also lost money. I admit to going through multiple periods of frustration — and even self-doubt — over the years. Dealing with losses isn’t easy, and if it is easy, then you might be in the wrong vocation. Moreover, if and when losses become habitual and irrefutable, then it’s time to change capping and research tactics (or perhaps pause or even quit betting altogether). All serious bettors who I know, and this includes very successful sports gamblers over a long period of time, have gone through seemingly endless losing streaks, questioned themselves, and some have even scaled back wagering or taken extended breaks.

Some results and outcomes make no sense whatsoever. Take last Sunday’s Buffalo-Miami game. I thought the Dolphins were the right side getting +9.5 points in a divisional game. However, nobody expected Miami to dominate the game and win by double digits. The score at the end of the 3rd quarter was Miami leading 16-0. If anyone posted an advance prediction that forecasted anything close to that shocker, I’d sure like to see it. Send me a link. I’m serious.

Another game that made no sense was Carolina shitting the bed at home against New Orleans. Perhaps the Panthers were a shaky favorite. But the 1-8 Saints looked awful most of the season. I didn’t see anyone forecast a New Orleans upset by 10 points. Again — show me who called this final result. I want to see it.

Losing games is all part of betting. But when the team we bet on doesn’t even show up and gets destroyed, then something’s wrong. And if it’s happening often, something is REALLY wrong. I’ve been trying to figure out how and why some teams come out of nowhere and play great games after seemingly being outclassed, outcoached, and left for dead by the betting public. If I can ever figure this out, I’ll be sure and share it. In the meantime, I’ll be more careful and cautious about what I post here. If there was a lesson learned, I’m not sure what it is. But I’m still learning.

Now, on to NFL Week #11.

ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 11:

NYJ vs. NWE [TNF]

Team Total: NYJ OVER 6.5 points (first-half) (-130)

The Jets are a mess right now, but they are riding a surprising two-game win streak with wins versus Cincy and Cleveland. Both wins were shaky efforts, but a win is a win in the NFL and that success should spark confidence for the big underdog in this AFC East matchup. NYJ are listed as 12-point dogs with a team total of only 14.5 points (for the full-game), which is insultingly low for any NFL team. Admittedly, the NYJ are wildly inconsistent, but have posted some decent figures. They’ve scored 20+ points in 5/9 games this season. That figure is actually 4/9 (if we subtrack special teams scores). I still lean OVER on the Jets for the full game, but the superior value looks to be going OVER 6.5 and catching a win on the key number — 7 for the first half. Obviously, we’re aiming for just one NYJ touchdown plus the conversion to cash this team prop. NYJ average a woeful 8.1 PPG in 1H this season. New England’s defense allows 10.8 PPG in 1H this season. Even with all the Jets’ issues, riding a mini-win streak combined with some possibility the Patriots could be flat here, adding in the division rivalry, and a short prep week all combine to make this a compelling wager. Unless there are highly unusual circumstances, such as miserable weather conditions and/or a terrible starting QB, I think most NFL teams are automatic bets at OVER 6.5 priced at -130.

[To be updated between Wed-Sat]

Final Picks for Week 11 (For those who just want the picks):

NYJ/NWE: Team Total — NYJ OVER 6.5 points [first-half] (-130)…W
Full-Game Line — Washington +3 vs. Miami
Full-Game Line — Green Bay -7 vs. NY Giants (-115)
Full-Game Line — Carolina +3.5 vs. Atlanta
Full-Game Line — Jacksonville +3 vs. LA Chargers (-115)
HOU-TEN — Player Prop — HOU RB Chubb OVER 32.5 rushing yards (-115)
BAL-CLE — Player Prop — BAL QB Jackson UNDER 37.5 rushing yards (-110)
CIN-PIT — Player Prop — CIN TE Fant OVER 23.5 yards (-115)
SFO-ARZ — Player Prop — ARZ PK Ryland OVER 6.5 points (-105)
KC-DEN — Full-Game Total — Kansas City/Denver UNDER 45
First-Quarter Line — Cincinnati +.5 vs. Pittsburgh (-130)
First-Half Line — Cincinnati +3.5 vs. Pittsburgh (-120)
Full-Game Line — Dallas -3 vs. Las Vegas

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG

CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.