2025 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 12

 

 

2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 95
LOSSES — 82
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — +$285
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 7-4-2 (+$230)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,285

ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG

CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:

[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]

NYJ/NWE: Team Total — NYJ OVER 6.5 points [first-half] (-130)…W

Full-Game Line — Washington +3 vs. Miami…P

Full-Game Line — Green Bay -7 vs. NY Giants (-115)…P

Full-Game Line — Carolina +3.5 vs. Atlanta…W

Full-Game Line — Jacksonville +3 vs. LA Chargers (-115)…W

HOU-TEN — Player Prop — HOU RB Chubb OVER 32.5 rushing yards (-115)…L

BAL-CLE — Player Prop — BAL QB Jackson UNDER 37.5 rushing yards (-110)…W

CIN-PIT — Player Prop — CIN TE Fant OVER 23.5 yards (-115)…W

SFO-ARZ — Player Prop — ARZ PK Ryland OVER 6.5 points (-105)…L

KC-DEN — Full-Game Total — Kansas City/Denver UNDER 45…W

First-Quarter Line — Cincinnati +.5 vs. Pittsburgh (-130)…L

First-Half Line — Cincinnati +3.5 vs. Pittsburgh (-120)…L

Full-Game Line — Dallas -3 vs. Las Vegas…W

 

THOUGHTS THIS WEEK:

Question – Are Thursday Night Football games lower scoring than average?

Answer – ​​Stats show that in NFL Thursday Night Football games, the UNDER hits more often than the OVER. In all TNF games played since 2019, 46.8 percent have gone UNDER the closing total. Average scoring on Thursday nights is slightly lower than on other gamedays, with TNF games averaging 45.7 combined points versus 46.0 on other days. This .3 figure might seem insignificant, but given the margins (and helped by wise line shopping), it’s possible perhaps to extend the edge to 54-46, or perhaps even as high as 55-45 with a half or full point here or there. So, I believe UNDERs must be the starting point in TNF games, or at the very least — there needs to be compelling outliers to wager on OVERs

One interesting subset of TNF trends and totals from online data is the *decline* in O/U totals as the season progresses. Check out this data, which I found surprising (since 2019):

Weeks 1-5: 46.22 average total

Weeks 6-11: 45.40 average total

Weeks 12-17: 43.57 average total

Note that scoring variance also tends to be higher in TNF games. The standard deviation in point totals for TNF games was 14.6, compared to 13.7 for other games. The reasons for this is probably lower-quality play combined with shorter rest and preparation for teams playing on Thursdays, which apparently impacts the offenses more than defenses.

Given a small edge on this trend, combined with Houston’s strong defense, I’m betting UNDER 43.5 in this week’s TNF contest.

ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 12:

BUF vs. HOU (TNF)

Full-Game Total — BUF/HOU UNDER 43.5 points

Player Prop — HOU TE Schultz OVER 4.5 receptions (+105)

Player Prop — HOU TE Schultz OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-115)

Here’s an intriguing AFC matchup between two of last year’s division leaders now looking upward at first place and needing victories to stay alive in their respective races. Buffalo is 1.5 games behind New England. Houston is probably out of their division chase completely since they’re now 3 games back of Indy (and Jacksonville), but needs to win to stay in the wild card chase. The game means more to the Texans, but can they rise to the occasion and deliver?

Getting +5.5 points as the home dog is tempting. This is especially true given Houston’s defense, which is among the NFL’s best by any metric. I’m unsure if they’ll be able to handle the Bills’ prolific offense, but the Texans defense does rank #1 in PPF (16.9), #1 in YPG (259.1), and #2 in YPP (4.5). The Bills are in for a tough test, for sure.

The problem and the worry for bettors is Houston’s troubled offense, which has been inconsistent at best and embarrassingly bad at worst. The Texans’ 16-point production versus lowly Tennessee last week, in which they needed a last second FG to defeat one of the worst teams in the league, should be a huge red flag and a warning sign. Houston’s play-calling was atrocious in that game. The top RB (Banks) averaged just 2.8 YPC on 18 feeds. That’s shameful. Houston’s season-long struggles are, in part, due to a below-average offensive line. It’s hard to see how the Texans will be able to do much scoring, and if they fall behind to a team like Buffalo which can run up points, this team is in big trouble. I’m labeling the Jacksonville comeback win two weeks ago a fluke. Fact is, Houston is a 5-5 team that might be two wins either better or worse except for the vast disparity between a top-3 defense and a lousy offense.

I’m betting UNDER 43.5 based on Houston’s excellent defense, combined with their subpar offense. Note that in the Texans’ 5 losses, the defense still played well (most points allowed this season–27 to Seattle). That tells me the Texans will likely have to produce points also for this total to go OVER. I don’t think Houston will be able to score enough points, especially given the limitations we saw at Tennessee last Sunday.

I am betting two Houston player props, both relating to Tight End Dalton Schultz. Backup QB Mills appears to look to his TE as a favorite target – throwing to Schultz a whopping 20 times in the last two games. Schultz’s targets show 11-9-8-3-10 in his last five games, so he’s likely to get enough touches to surpass 4.5 catches. Receptions are also very favorable in the last five weeks, which shows 6-7-6-2-9 in those games. Getting +105 on the OVER is a nice bonus. Add a script where Houston might be playing from behind as the underdog, and Schultz’s numbers potentially look even better.

Given I like Schultz to catch 5+ passes, I’ll add a wager on his yardage prop – OVER 39.5 (-115). Even though Houston’s offense stinks, the TE position has been an above-average bright spot, as Schultz averages 48 receiving YPG. With Mills at QB, Schultz has over 100 yards the past two games, and his last five stat line shows – 51-53-77-24-98. Exceeding 39.5 doesn’t seem like too much to ask given his recent history.

Note that Schultz has reportedly been limited in practice, with a “shoulder injury.” Official designations come out Wednesday. Yet, report’s been pretty much the same for each of the last four games, and he’s played through any discomfort. Given that Houston really needs to win each week and with a 10-day rest coming up, and Buffalo will certainly be a tough foe, there’s no way Schultz isn’t taking the field as the starter and getting action, so long as he can walk.

<<<Picks and analysis updated Wed-Sat>>>>

 

FINAL PICKS FOR WEEK 12:

(For those who just want the picks):

Full-Game Total — BUF/HOU UNDER 43.5 points…W
Player Prop — HOU TE Schultz OVER 4.5 receptions (+105)…L
Player Prop — HOU TE Schultz OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-115)…L
INDY-KC: Full-Game Line — Kansas City -3 vs. Indianapolis (-120)
SEA-TEN: First-Half Team Total — Seattle OVER 13.5 points
ATL-NOR: Full-Game Line — New Orleans -2 vs. Atlanta
ATL-NOR: Player Prop — ATL RB Robinson UNDER 84.5 rushing yards (-115)
BAL-NYJ: Player Prop — BAL QB Jackson UNDER 35.5 rushing yards (-120)
JAX-ARZ: Full-Game Line — Arizona +3 vs. Jacksonville
JAX-ARZ: Player Prop — ARZ QB Brissett OVER 244.5 passing yards (-115)
PIT-CHI: Team Total — Chicago OVER 24
MIN-GB: Player Prop — Will QB McCarthy throw an interception–YES (-155)
NWE-CIN: Player Prop — CIN TE Fant OVER 3.5 receptions (+130)
NWE-CIN: Player Prop — CIN TE Fant OVER 24.5 yards (-115)

 

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG

CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.