Posted by Nolan Dalla on Sep 25, 2026 in Blog |
2026-27 NFL SEASON: WEEK 3 – ANALYSIS AND PICKS
2026-27 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 16
LOSSES — 17
PUSH — 1
NET WIN/LOSS — – $400.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 9-8-0 (- $60)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,600.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)Note: You can real ALL WRITE-UPS for EVERY GAME this week and MORE PICKS at the following website link: CLICK HERE
https://www.betcoin.ag/page/nolan-2026-week3/
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
DET-BUF Second-Half Total: OVER 27.5 points….W
Player Prop: DET TE Kincaid OVER 49.5 receiving yards….W
Player Prop: DET RB Gibbs UNDER 95.5 rushing yards….W
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 21.5 pass completions (-115)…W
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 34.5 pass attempts (-110)…W
Full-Game Side: HOUSTON -2.5 vs. Cincinnati (-105)…L
Full-Game Side: NY Jets +3.5 vs. Green Bay (-105)…W
Player Prop: TB QB Mayfield OVER 211.5 passing yards (-115)…L
Player Prop: CLE QB Watson throw interception–YES (-145)…L
First Quarter Line: Washington +.5 vs. Dallas (-135)…L
Full-Game Line: WASHINGTON +4.5 vs. Dallas (-115)…L
Player Prop: ATL RB Brian Robinson OVER 26.5 rushing yards (-115)…W
Player Prop: NOR QB Shough OVER 231 passing yards (-115)…W
Team Total: Jacksonville OVER 22.5 (-105)…L
Team Total: Denver UNDER 24.5 (-105)…W
Player Prop: ARZ PK Ryland OVER 6 points (-130)…L
Full-Game: MIA-SFO UNDER 44.5…L
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WEEK 3 ANALYSIS AND PICKS
ATLANTA at GREEN BAY
Line: Packers -6.5
Total: O/U 44.5
This first thing we look at is the Falcons’ bizarre QB situation. What a shitshow. Third-stringer bustout C. Rush was abysmal in his two starts. Newly acquired Tagovailoa is apparently on a cruise in Antarctica. Thankfully, Michael Penix is finally healthy enough to start a game. Gawd, the Falcons have looked like garbage. They smell.
So, of course — I’m betting on them this week. There’s a powerful angle on fading short-week favorites coming off an OT game. They perform terribly ATS. The Packers played the Jets in extra innings last week. They’ve looked like a mess in both games, so grabbing points with the opponent seems like the wise contrarian play.
I don’t know why QB Penix wasn’t given more encouragement from the staff. What I saw was a gutsy QB with marginal talent around him fighting to win games and he had a decent stat line with nearly 2K yards / 9 TDs / just 3 ints in his 9 starts last year. I understand why the Falcons decided to grab Tua at a garage sale in the offseason. However, Penix has the skills and enough games under his belt to play a decent game here — and there’s talent on this offense, so long as a QB is starting who can throw a forward pass. I like this QB change and expect it will spark a better effort from Atlanta this week, though admittedly they could not have possibly looked worse offensively than to get spanked by Pittsburgh and Carolina.
Defensively, 0-2 Atlanta’s two performances may be misleading. Sure, they lost and looked bad last week. However, the Falcons rush defense gave up only 58 rushing yards against Steelers — then, only total rushing yards against Panthers. Those are stellar numbers, though it’s a small sample size. If Atlanta shuts down Green Bay on the ground, I’m thrilled to fade Love’s erratic passing prospects.
Some bettors will jump on 1-1 Green Bay under a touchdown, and in years past this might have been a *rebound* spot for them. Still, I don’t think this is a very good team. QB Love is going to end up busting their salary cap with mediocrity. And the Pack has not covered in SEVEN straight, dating back to last season. This line is an outdated overreaction to false perceptions that Green Bay is one of the better NFC teams. They are not.
I look for Atlanta to keep this one close. Not confident they win outright at Lambeau Field on a short week, but I do think they can keep this within the margin. This line opened at GBP -6.5 and is now -6 and even as low as -5.5 in some spots. Make sure to capture the +6, as this is unplayable below that number. I don’t like using “sharps” vs. “squares” language because it’s not relevant anymore, though this matchup is likely to have heavy public money on Green Bay, while large volume big-bettors recognize value and will take Atlanta.
As for player props, if you were with me last week, I had an easy winner on Brian Robinson, the secondary running back (note this isn’t BIJAN, but BRIAN Robinson). His O/U on rushing yards was just 26.5 and he doubled that with 51 yards (11 carries). Week 1 was also an OVER, as Robinson picked up 31 (9 carries). Assuming he gets 10 carries this week, that should be enough to break what seems like a very low O/U on his rushing yardage, which is just 24.5 this week. We have to be careful with RBs coming off short weeks. But that number should be easy for Robinson to break, so long as he gets his usual time and carries. Also note, Atlanta was playing from behind in both previous games, so getting rushing yardage was tougher, especially late in the game. Good spot here for another OVER on Robinson’s yardage.
Finally, I like Atlanta for the full game, so taking them +3.5 for the first half is a value I can’t pass up. Three bets in all on the Thursday Night game.
Wagers:
Full Game Side – ATL +6.5 v. GBP (-110)
First-Half Side – ATL +3.5 (-115)
Player Prop – ATL RB B. Robinson OVER 24.5 yards (-110)
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CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH
Line: Bengals -2.5
Total: O/U 42.5
We’re not supposed to over-react to what we see after just two games. But these teams have performed about as opposite as things get. Cincy has finally lived up to early-season expectations, with a vastly-improved defense to go along with a top-five rated offense. AFC North rival Pittsburgh looks awful, especially on offense. Their rushing game is non-existent (just 74 YPG, currently ranking 29th in the NFL). Those are not typical Steeler numbers we’re used to.
This provides bettors to take advantage of a few props that have not caught up to reality. Last week, my write-up recommended OVERS on PIT QB Rodgers’ passing props. Even though the Steelers didn’t score TDs, he still easily eclipsed the numbers. I see no reason not to go back to the same betting window and order another main course of Rodgers OVER on his passing.
It’s clear coach McCarthy is changing the complexion of this offense, though the transition has been rocky. Consider, Rodgers had 40 pass attempts in Week 1, and that was in a lopsided game (vs. ATL) where Pittsburgh led most of the way and didn’t have to pass much. Last week, Rodgers had 39 pass attempts at NWE. In these first two weeks, despite poor production, he still connected on 24 and 23 passes, respectively. I see no reason why a similar pass-oriented game plan won’t repeat, especially versus Cincinnati which allowed mediocre passer CJ Stroud (HOU) to go 30 for 55 for 363 last week through the air.
Hence, I’m betting those two Aaron Rodgers props again — OVER on both attempts and completions. The market has inched up on both props by just one attempt and completion, which isn’t enough of an adjustment. And with CIN QB Burrow likely airing it out, this too could force the Steelers into more passing, especially if they’re behind — and they’re underdogs in this game so that makes sense. Local press has been hammering the PIT receivers, and even some ex-Steeler legends have been posting about the lack of big plays from this WR corps. I expect this all leads to more passing — or at least near the same numbers we’ve seen the past two weeks.
Wagers:
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 22.5 pass completions (-115)
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 35 pass attempts (-115)
SEE ALL THE GAME WRITEUPS AND PICK EXPLANATIONS AT (CLICK LINK):
https://www.betcoin.ag/page/nolan-2026-week3/
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FINAL LIST OF WEEK 3 WAGERS:
(For those who just want the picks)
Full Game Side – ATL +6.5 v. GBP (-110)
First-Half Side – ATL +3.5 (-115)
Player Prop – ATL RB B. Robinson OVER 24.5 yards (-110)
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 22.5 pass completions (-115)
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 35 pass attempts (-115)
Full-Game Side: DET -6.5 vs. NYJ (-115)
Full-Game Side: CAR -2.5 vs. CLE (-115)
Player Prop: CAR WR McMillan OVER 60 receiving yards (-115)
Full-Game Side: ARZ +8.5 vs. SFO (-110)
Player Prop: NOR QB Cousins OVER 211.5 passing yards (-115)
Player Prop: HOU RB Montgomery OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-110)
Full-Game Side: SEA -7.5 v. WAS (-105)
Full-Game Side: DET -6.5 v. NYJ (-110)
First Drive Result: NYJ punt (+105)
Full-Game Team Total: NYJ UNDER 20.5 (-110)
Full-Game Side: MIN -1.5 vs. TBB (-115)
Player Prop: BUF TE Kincaid OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-115)
First-Half Team Total: Chicago OVER 9.5 points (-105)
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Sep 25, 2026 in Blog |
This week, several world leaders spoke to the United Nations General Assembly. Multiple appearances and remarks, as well as reactions to them, made splash headlines — not just here in the U.S., but all over the world.
Among the most controversial speeches delivered in New York was by Benjamin Netanyahu, the much-maligned Prime Minister of Israel. A sizable percentage of U.N. delegates walked out when he began speaking. This was performative theatre. Alas, much of what happens inside that forum is nothing more than global grandstanding — both at the podium, and what happens in front of it.
On social media, many progressives saw this and asked — why wasn’t Netanyahu arrested, charged with war crimes, or at least detained in some manner to be tried later by international courts? These questions even spilled into the streets of New York City, as there have been calls for Netanyahu’s arrest and detainment (though they have no such authority, and such an action would be disastrous on many levels).
Though those are indeed reasonable questions, I wish to explain why the proposition is both foolish and unrealistic.
Regular readers know my position(s) on Middle East policy, and my negative opinion of Netanyahu. While I’m sympathetic to the chorus of public calls for “arresting–detaining–charging” him for an abundance of horrific acts, to call for a national leader (or any dignitary) to be arrested in NYC, or at the UN, displays an appalling lack of understanding about international diplomacy. It certainly exposes a naivety about laws that have been firmly in place for decades to ensure meeting places enjoy full protection — where policies and ideas can be discussed and debated. Yes — even very bad policies and ideas.
And besides, who’s to say which ideas are good or bad? Or, which leaders or good and bad? See the problem?
Here’s a synopsis of the agreement every U.N. nation-member has agreed to and signed: The 1961 Convention on Diplomatic Relations (a.k.a. the Vienna Convention) and the 1946 Convention on UN Privileges/Immunities grants *wide-ranging immunity* from either arrest or detention for representatives of U.N. member nations traveling abroad on official business, and specifically at U.N. Headquarters in New York. Full stop.
This is not open to interpretation. Anyone who attends the U.N. on official business (who is part of a member delegation) is immune from arrest. Simple as that and it applies to everyone, and all nations.
In year’s past, many reviled leaders have spoken at the U.N., and most were without threats implied by those who now want to arrest Netanyahu. This includes several former terrorist leaders (and some would say — current terrorist leaders), murderous dictators, vile despots, undeniable war criminals, and flat-out street thugs. Many horrible people have stood at center stage and spoken to the world — as this remains one of the very few places where such a thing is possible. We may not like it, and one can argue giving those voices such a high-profile forum is a bad thing. Nonetheless, there’s a very good reason we don’t arrest the leaders we don’t like, even if they’re criminals.
Once Netanyahu gets arrested, where does it all end? Many U.N. members — a majority perhaps — believes Donald Trump is a war criminal (okay–he probably is). But do we really want any current or future President to be subject to arrest at the U.N. because of international grievances? Certainly, Vladimir Putin has committed many war crimes and would be justified for detainment and indictment–to be later shipped off to international courts for trial. And, in the past, there’s Fidel Castro, Yasser Arafat, Muammar Gaddafi, and many others. All have spoken at the U.N. Numerous times. If you arrest one, then the others can be arrested, too.
See, that’s the problem. *Who* gets to decide which leaders are the bad guys? Certainly, not the United States, which has it’s own glaring hypocrisies (arresting Venezuela’s leader and murdering Iran’s leader—and that’s just in the past year). And certainly not a cabal of nations who are pissed at Israel, or mad at any other country. That’s why we must control our impulses, even if they’re noble. We must recognize the greater good of a special place where everyone meets under the conditions of a universally accepted TRUCE. A free-ideas zone, if you will. There simply MUST be a place where sworn enemies can meet and there won’t be fistfights in the auditorium or police swarming the hallways arresting the leaders we don’t like. This point seems so obvious if you understand diplomacy.
The U.N. is an imperfect organization. Criticism of it is often justified. Nonetheless, without it — nations have few options to pursue concerns and register objections. In a global pressure cooker, the U.N. is like that spigot atop the burning skillet that lets out the steam. Take it away, and the kitchen explodes.
I hope someday that Netanyahu pays for what he’s done. Hopefully, justice will prevail in Israel. In the meantime, let’s not only accept, but embrace the U.N. and its autonomy, and take pride that its based here in the United States and not elsewhere. Hosting this important organization is a tremendous responsibility and an honor. Turning into a mob mentality and demanding the arrest of members sadly diminishes that forum, and it makes us unworthy of being neutral territory for international conflicts.
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Read the ICC case against Netanyahu HERE.
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Sep 23, 2026 in Blog |
[This is prompted by a report I saw on the local news, this morning]
During COVID, I drove to a local seafood restaurant to pick up a to-go order (remember — many public places back then were shut down). I was astounded when I saw a sign in front offering “COCKTAILS TO GO.”
Whaaaaaaaat?
I could order a margarita on the rocks, a shot of Jack Daniels, and a Rum Runner and get them served in cups…..TO GO?
That shocked me. I’d never really thought about it before, but nowhere in the country was TAKE OUT allowed for hard liquor. Back when living on the East Coast, I remember “package stores,” where bars could sell six packs and the contents had to be bagged up. But taking out hard liquor was strictly illegal. New Orleans has some quirky liquor laws where open containers are allowed in public, and the same goes for tourist zones on the Las Vegas Strip (like downtown). But I’d never heard of pulling into a restaurant and ordering a highball to go.
Turns out, restaurants were desperate back then. It was all about survival. So, our local government temporarily permitted take-out for liquor. All of this made sense.
Fast forward to now.
I just saw a news report that the first licenses for *cocktail take out* have been approved in Las Vegas. So, people can order their food and get a few drinks to go. Reportedly, FOOD must be served when LIQUOR is ordered, and there’s some ratio — 50/50 by law, I believe. So, if you order $30 of food, you can’t spend more than $30 in liquor (someone correct me if I’m wrong–the TV news report was vague).
I must confess as someone who enjoys an occasional cocktail, I’m not at all happy about this. Our society has made drinking while driving a very taboo thing. And that’s good. The streets are dangerous enough with phone use, prescription drug addictions, legal marijuana, and lots of really lousy drivers. Sticking a plastic cup with booze in it into the hand of someone probably texting while driving isn’t exactly safe (or sane) public policy. Full Confession: While I’ve certainly drank and driven before (most people know this), I do believe in legal restrictions on alcohol use and the enforcement of open container laws.
One can make a solid argument that even if someone buys a couple of cocktails and consumes them in the car while driving home, the negative impacts typically aren’t felt until sometime later — maybe a half hour, or longer. So, it’s not really much of a risk to wolf down the hot burger and slam down a few cold beers behind the wheel of the car, as inebriation takes time. Then again, if you’re stuck in traffic and the commute takes longer, those cocktails might be tempting — so there’s indeed a higher risk when people start drinking, while driving.
I should also point out that critics said the legalization of recreational marijuana in Las Vegas (and elsewhere) would make the streets more dangerous. The OPPOSITE has occurred. Turns out the demographic that drinks tends to also use marijuana, and once that was legalized, DRINKING DECLINED. So, the number of DUI and DWI cases also declined, and the streets were, in fact, safer. Studies on this continue. We’re only about a decade into the experiment. Still, early indications are — marijuana legalization has proven to be an overwhelmingly positive change.
What puzzles me most is — why would bars and restaurants want this new permissive law on alcohol sales. Don’t they want patrons to stay inside, order more food, tip the staff, and likely order another drink? Seems liquor take-out could HURT the bottom line. But, they know better. One more point: It’s FAR more dangerous for patrons to drink in bars and restaurants, and later get behind the wheel. Previously, I discussed the delayed effects of alcohol. Drink three shots of tequila while driving and arrive home in 15 minutes, and you probably won’t start feeling the liquor until arriving at home. But if you slam three shots of tequila at the bar, and then leave the joint 45 minutes later, you might be intoxicated. (*see footnote below)
Hence, the new liquor policy may be a good thing. It could prevent some accidents and save a few lives, or it might backfire with others. Both outcomes, though seemingly contradictory, might be true.
I’ll close by saying the national outcry against drinking and driving is generally a very positive social and cultural awareness that has undoubtedly saved many lives. But allowing liquor take-out, even in a city with as much permissiveness as Las Vegas, sends the wrong message. I lean against this change in liquor laws, but could be persuaded otherwise.
We’ll see what happens.
__________
* Laws of unintended consequences: This is one reason why DRY counties (they ban all liquor sales) in many parts of America is terrible public policy. Drinkers who are forced to drive to bars and other places with alcohol, then must inevitably DRIVE home — in many cases long drives, often late at night — they become dangerous. They fall asleep. They kill people. DRY counties might be one of the most self-defeating and dangerous laws on vice in existence.
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Sep 21, 2026 in Blog |
You may be wondering what Trump’s dog-killing, hand-picked former *Director of Homeland Security* has been up to since she resigned in disgrace (e.g., was fired) several months ago.
Remember Kristi Noem? She’s the rodeo hick former Governor of South Dakota who admitted in her own biography she murdered the family pet (a one-year-old dog named “Cricket” was shot for disobedience). She also personally shot a number of goats — an action she described as “no big deal.” Unfortunately, RFK, Jr. wasn’t around to haul away the dead animal carcasses for “study.”
As for “disobedience,” too bad the same punishment isn’t doled out to those who who disobey their sworn oath to the Constitution — not to mention being responsible for the deaths of Americans via reckless policies, her personal grifting, her exposed criminality in awarding government contracts, her laughable hypocrisy, and her turning her tax-payer funded airplane into her own flying fuck party. Let’s just say in the Mile High Club, she’s earned frequent flyer gold status.
While she was married to the poor guy with the giant tits who ended up being outed as a crossdresser (gee, that’s awkward–huh Kristi?)……she was banging one of her closest advisers on the sex plane.
Animal killing, stealing, lying to the public, fucking on government time — that’s some resume! Hell, she was in office barely a year!
So, what’s next for this scandal-plagued divorcee in those tight blue jeans and a cowboy hat who juggled multiple sexual dalliances all while professing the “FAMILY VALUES” conservative Christian bullshit? Any updates?
Vi-ola!
She’s off someplace on a “super fun hunt” murdering a gorgeous animal in nature, then posing boastfully with the “trophy.” She doesn’t even hide this cruelty. She brags about it.
What a cunt.
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Sep 21, 2026 in Blog |
“Little Marco.”
Remember that?
Those words might be the only honest thing Trump’s ever blurted out.
When his boss repeatedly referred to him as “Little Marco,” he wasn’t talking about the second-generation Cuban cumquat’s lack of height or his small stature. On the global stage, over many years, we’ve come to realize, this was an accurate description of character — or lack thereof.
Has any Secretary of State in American history ever been so cucked, complaisant, and cowardly? Let me put it another way — when the boss is summoning the likes of New York City real estate fraudsters to meet Vlad Putin instead of the nation’s top foreign policy guy, you’re basically tagged a small town grocery clerk. An errand boy. A bag man. A muppet sock.
Hey, boy….take the redeye down to Peru and sign another “friendship” agreement.
When I worked for the U.S. State Department politics and partisanship did not matter. I revered Republican Secretaries of State who I served under — James Baker and Larry Eagleburger. And, I didn’t like Warren Christopher (a Democrat), who I also served under. The Ambassador that I worked with was George Bush the first’s campaign chairman, and I adored him and respected his force of personality…. so as a far-left liberal, I have always recognized that foreign policy should have nothing to do with partisanship. If the military is the stick, then the Secretary of State –through artful diplomacy– is the carrot. Little Marco is rot seed. The former Sec. of States were giants of intellect and powerful faces on the national prestige. And, they were flexible, and without ego. I see none of these qualities in LITTLE MARCO.
The lying Trump cuck is positioning himself for a 2028 presidential run. That’s obvious. It’s more like—-frightening. Yet, he’s failed on every global front. He’s lied repeatedly about wars and failed to keep the peace. He misrepresented his own story as a so-called victim of “Communism” when his own parents actually fled Cuba because of the right-wing American and Mafia backed taco of shit that actually murdered more people than Castro. If he has one original idea or speck of talent, we’ve yet to see it.
Even Henry Kissinger, a despicable criminal responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths, had some measure of talent. Evil sometimes can command some level of respect on a Machiavellian level.
This guy has zippo.
Rarely do we witness in American politics and public life someone so empty, so void, so pathetic. An empty shell of a nothing, with nothing to show for two wasted years in office, a failed presidential run, and an embarrassing Senate career.
In other words, the perfect Republican successor to his moron boss.
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Sep 21, 2026 in Blog |
Tonight marks the 57th anniversary date of a weekly sporting spectacle that changed American popular culture, It made NFL football into the true national pastime. The program blurred the distinctions between sports, entertainment, current events, and even politics.
It wasn’t just a game. It was a party. A national gathering. How many of our memories were freeze-framed in time watching television on Monday night?
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Sep 19, 2026 in Blog |
2026-27 NFL SEASON: WEEK 2 – ANALYSIS AND PICKS
2026-27 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 7
LOSSES — 9
PUSH — 1
NET WIN/LOSS — – $340.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 7-9-1 (- $340)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,660.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Sep 18, 2026 in Blog |
This is staggering.
Nearly half of Americans would NOT vote for a non-believer.
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Sep 16, 2026 in Blog |
One of the quirks of living in Las Vegas this time of year is the blinding sun over the western horizon each day. This makes safe driving difficult, if not impossible. Around 5 pm daily above the mountains, once the sun begins to set, glare hits city haze and turns drivers into a giant pack of deer caught in the headlights.
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Sep 14, 2026 in Blog |
One of the most difficult realisms about being an atheist is the kindred sadness of knowing all connections and joys in life are finite. We are not built to last forever.
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