Worst Fears Come True: It’s Worse for Biden than You Think

 

 

 

Note: I’m adding these thoughts to my article/post from yesterday on the fallout from the first presidential debate:

HOW BAD IS IT FOR BIDEN? ANSWER–IT’S WORSE THAN YOU THINK

Whether we like it or not, or approve, there is now a SIZABLE percentage of former undecideds who conclude Biden is too old, mentally unreliable, and appears to be frail. Consequently, they will either not vote for him, or will vote for opposition.

A fatal flaw in crafting amateur political analysis is in assuming the electorate (a.k.a. the average voter) is persuaded by facts. Some voters certainly are persuaded by facts, and data, and evidence. But history (and many studies) show that most aren’t, and social media has made this disconnect from reality much worse.

An even deeper flaw is making assumptions that the casual voter has as much information as political followers do, and then acts accordingly. Moreover, failing to understand the unique characteristics of the so-called “swing voter” (and undecideds) requires suspending our own biases. Millions of us wondered and then asked not too long ago, “how could anyone sane vote for Trump?” and then bam! …. 2016 happened. So, never assume the casual voter thinks like we do.

The undecideds are usually persuaded by other issues, often impossible to predict. They are a bundle of inconsistencies. They’re capable of voting for Barack Obama in one election, Bernie Sanders in a primary, and then Donald Trump in the next general election. Don’t laugh. There are lots of these types of voters. The party who best understands this usually wins.

This fraction of the voting electorate (perhaps 5 to 10 percent of active voters in the general election, and perhaps only a few hundred thousand in swing states, combined) determines the outcome of elections. It’s people who are mostly APOLITICAL. It’s people who don’t follow current events. It’s suburban soccer moms in Arizona, factory workers in Michigan, store clerks in Pennsylvania, and small business owners in Georgia. Not the coastal elites. Not the media. It’s the relatively small sliver of voters who pay almost no attention to politics until perhaps the final week of a campaign, and then even doesn’t really grasp major issues nor vote ideologically. This pool of voters is the fragile tipping point of all presidential elections, which can’t be trusted to know facts, understand complex issues, remember constitutional principles from their school civics class, or take the time to contemplate the catastrophic consequences of a Trump second-term. They vote based on grocery prices and memes.

This is the swing demographic that likely tuned into last Thursday night’s debate (or is aware of the fallout) and saw what we all watched with our own eyes, taking away the unshakeable perception that President Biden is now a seriously diminished candidate. Whether we like it or not, or approve, or even if it’s truth or fiction, there is now a SIZABLE percentage of former undecideds who conclude that he’s too old, mentally unreliable, and appears to be frail. Consequently, they will either not vote for him, or will vote for opposition. This is also a political demographic that suffers from a bad case of amnesia, largely forgetting the chronic chaos of the Trump years.

Let’s remember, only about 60,000 votes in a few battleground states basically tipped the 2020 election in Biden’s favor. If any sizable percentage of those voters either (1) stays home, (2) switches to Trump, or (3) votes third-party this time….that leaves us with an indisputable fact — Trump wins. Biden is behind in most swing states, including those he won in 2020, and those scary poll numbers were taken BEFORE the debate debacle. More recent polls show Biden dropping now to 5 points behind Trump in the popular vote (45-40 is the latest I’ve seen, in favor of Trump).

For those who assume felonies, the stain of insurrection, and other crimes will sink Trump, what evidence do you have that voters will suddenly come to their senses? Trump isn’t going to implode or worsen, political speaking. Even with all his flaws, he’s still likely to win close to 50 percent of the vote (certainly the high 40s). Most analysts say Biden must win the national popular vote by about 2 percent of have *any* path to 270 electoral votes. Hence, that means Biden needs to make up a whopping 7 points in the coming months.

Is anyone really confident that Biden possesses the energy, or has the mental and physical strength, or offers up the persuasive ability to win over those undecideds and disillusioned independents? If so, based on what evidence? Let’s also acknowledge the unshakeable fact that he’s saddled with an incumbent’s record and now must play defense on most issues, whereas before he could criticize an abysmal Trump incumbency four years ago — and the insurmountable challenges become even greater. Republicans have recently pulled ahead of Democrats in fundraising, with a bottomless campaign advertising reservoir flooding in from conservative, MAGA-leaning super-PACs. Think the numbers are bad now? Just wait. Wait until the new attack ads begin. The far-Right are masters at mudslinging, and anyone who dismisses the persuasive power of campaign advertising and messaging –especially among casual swing voters– is destined for defeat.

Doing nothing is a near-certain disaster at this point. President Biden remaining at the top of the Democratic ticket makes overcoming all of these obstacles nearly impossible. We may not have even seen the worst of Biden’s state of mind and health. Let’s all face the reality that Biden is very likely to repeat another “bad day” at some point. No, that debate performance wasn’t just an isolated (90-minute) incident. He can be expected to and will stumble again, giving us the blank stare, and appear to be hitting the off-button at some point. With unblinking cameras rolling and capturing every move and our attention on his vulnerabilities, whether appropriate or not, he’s now a dementia-ridden punching bag and a poster boy for near certain defeat. Every mistake now gets amplified. That imagery is unshakeable. It’s impossible to change prevailing political narratives and alter personal perceptions, and time is ticking away fast.

The question becomes, what will we do about it?