Westgate NFL Handicapping SuperContest (3 Weeks to Go)

WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST UPDATE (WEEK 16)

When the NFL regular season kicked-off back in early September , if you told me we’d be in this position with just three weeks to go, I’d be ecstatic.

Right now, between all the tickets, we have 321 combined wins on 525 total picks — which is a 61.14 percent win rate. Collectively speaking, all the tickets are +117 wins above the .500 mark.

However, this is no time for celebration.

We’re now down to the final three weeks of the contest. With the mandatory 5 picks to make every week on each ticket, that’s 15 possible points at stake (since one point is given for each win). While I’m thrilled with these results, I’m also unsatisfied. I’m also wary of running up impressive win percentages, but then getting nothing more back in prize money. Accordingly, all decisions from this point forward will be based on moving up in standings and winning prize money. Hitting 61 percent winners, but then not making a cent means nothing. We are going for an in-the-money finish, hopefully on multiple tickets.

Recall how we got here.  There were 1,301 entries in the contest. We purchased 7 of those entries, which means there was a total $7,000 investment. The good news is — all 7 of those tickets currently rank in the top 200. So, it’s possible any or all 7 tickets could still reach the money. However, realistically speaking, no more than 3 tickets are more likely to make the money. Moreover, 3 tickets could still even win the contest (main event). Note that 1 ticket currently stands alone in 9th place. And, 1 ticket is tied for 17th place. Remember, the main event contest pays only the top-20, with $200,000 for first place plus the “champion” title. So, this all means we would have 2 tickets in-the-money — if the contest ended now. We also have 1 ticket tied for 27th place, easily within striking distance. So, that’s three tickets ranked in the top 36.

In the second-half contest (which means the best results of weeks 10-18), we have 1 ticket tied for 3rd place. In fact, we have 5 tickets ranked in the top 50, which certainly could cash. No one in the contest is even close to this figure. Trouble is, it’s $75,000 for first, and pays just five spots (75K – 40K – 20K – 10K – 5K). So, we must take 5th place, or higher to get a payout.

Obviously, these 3 best tickets will receive the greatest care and attention. However, with the 4 other tickets, we are likely to get more aggressive, especially on the longshot tickets. Note that 1 ticket is tied for 91st place in the main event, and with a good run, could still climb into the money. The other tickets need help and would need to go something like 12-3 or better to have any realistic shot to move into the money. However, these tickets could also be live on the second-half contest, which mans they were be taken seriously. That said, we can’t necessarily “play it safe” on these lower-ranked tickets….unless….unless….

…..we want to concentrate on the last mini-contest (weeks 16-18), and just play it safe and make optimal picks. Recall, we won a mini-contest already for $25,000 (for the week 10-12 contest), but we are starting afresh with 1,301 contestants, so this should not be an expectation.

Let me discuss the status of each ticket, because they are each at a different status:

TICKET 1: Currently stands all alone in 9th place in the main event. Based on prize money from last season, that would pay about $8,900 if we remain in the same place. The ticket is 2.5 points out of 1st place, so we need to average gaining 1 point (one more winning pick) per week. But also keep in mind other tickets could also get hot and climb. Obviously, if this ticket can continue on the same pace as we are doing, we could win it all. Since the SuperContest winner last season ended up with 60.5 points, and the current leader is at 51.5 points, given that this ticket is at 49 points, we need to go 10-5 or better to have any shot and more like 11-4 or 12-3 for higher confidence. The good news is, since 55.5 points cashed last season, even a 7-8 or better record could get us into the money on Ticket 1. But we’re not playing for 20th place on this ticket. We’re aiming for 1st. More good news: This ticket ranks in 15th place in the second-half contest, and is 2.5 points (wins) behind the current leader. So, strong results not only move this ticket up the main event money ladder, it could also land a payout in the top-5 of the second-half contest.

TICKET 3: Currently stands tied in 17th place along with 9 other players in the main event (which means, we’d all carve up the 17th-20th prize money if the contest ended now). This stands at 48 points. That’s 3.5 points behind the contest leader. But here’s the great news: This ticket ranks in a tie for 3rd place in the second-half contest. This ticket is huge, and perhaps has a higher +EV than Ticket 1 given it’s ranked so high in two contest segments.

TICKET 2: Currently stands tied for 27th place. That’s only 7 spots out of the money. This ticket is also 3 games out of first place in the second half contest….but remember, there’s only 15 games/picks to go. If this can stay close to the money, it could provide some hedge opportunities in the final week. Let’s hope we get to that strategy discussion.

TICKET(S) 4-7: These are all half game to a full game behind those tickets discussed above, but since they’re still in the running to cash in both contests, we’ll treat them seriously, yet also take a few outliers as a hedge against the best tickets stumbling. Ideally, one of these will go 5-0 this week, and climb into contention with the other tickets, as well as be the leader in the final mini-contest (weeks 16-18).

TICKET(S) 5-6: Needs lots of help. With a miracle run 13-2 or bettor, these could still cash. We’re at 43.5 points and it’s probably going to take 55 points (or higher) to cash.  So, 13-2 is the only way these may return money.  These tickets are pretty much dead, except on the last mini-contest.

Finally, to say these upcoming games are now worth thousands of dollars is an understatement. The difference between 1st and second is likely to be just a point. Perhaps a half point (which happens with a push). Players will also likely tie for some prize money spots, so every step up the money ladder is worth thousands in prize money, and perhaps even tens of thousands of dollars.

Thanks for playing along and enjoying the ride.

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CLICK TO SEE SUPERCONTEST MAIN EVENT STANDINGS HERE

CLICK TO SEE SUPERCONTEST SECOND HALF STANDINGS HERE