Week #8 — NFL Analysis and Picks

Just for kicks….

If you handicap and wager on pro football games for any extended length of time, bad seasons are inevitable. I’m suffering a bad season, though there’s still a long way still to go — only 7 of 18 weeks are completed.

The important thing and means to survive is not to get caught up in short-term fluctuations (a.k.a. losing streaks) but instead to focus on how the pro game may be gradually changing and then trying to determine how to take advantage of those emerging trends and tendencies. Admittedly, I’m attempting to do exactly that. If it was easy, everyone would be doing it and thus be successful in handicapping. The challenge lies in trying to make adjustments in mid-season and use what we learn to get back into the win column.

One thing I’ve adjusted is the focus of my betting, which now includes things a bit more unconventional, including prop bets. One of the things I’ve paid more attention to lately are props that don’t get a lot of public attention. While many prop bettors focus on scoring touchdowns, quarterbacks, and yardage, I’ve been intrigued by some props few bettors consider.

Note that I’m writing here about kicking props, which admittedly can be very volatile. Winning or losing a bet often depends on the offense either making or failing to convert a key third down that results in a field goal attempt. One of the flaws in methodology of those who bet on kicking props is looking at statistical columns and percentages of “field goals made.” These stats are easy to find at major sites like NFL.com and ESPN.com. So-called “good” kickers do not matter nearly as much as how many attempts the kicker gets to score points. For instance, I want to bet OVER on kicking props where the offense can move the ball somewhat, but which also struggles once they get into the red zone. If they’re playing indoors in domes, that’s even better since wind and environmental factors will not influence the kicking games. I don’t think oddsmakers have adjusted to the key differences between certain kinds of teams. Some teams struggle in the red zone, yet have pretty good kickers. Other teams are so prolific offensively, they don’t score as many field goals because they’re scoring touchdowns. Most kicking point props are lined at 6.5. With very bad teams, you do see 5.5s and even an occasional 4.5. Most times when I see a kicking point total below 6, I’ll at least consider making a bet on the OVER kicking point prop. I’m just going to automatically go OVER when two field goals (or 1 FG and 3 XPs gets me to the OVER).

I was reluctant to write about these kicking props, mainly because I don’t want a new discovery to get out of the bag and then the market jumps on it and ruins the value (as happened to my halftime betting angles 20 years ago). But I feel my season has not gone well, so I do want to share some of the discoveries I’ve made and this is one of them.

All that said, let’s now go ahead and look at this week’s lineup. You can scroll down to see the bets that I made, so far.

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2023 NFL WAGERING RECORD
70 — Wins
76 — Losses
2 — Pushes
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $6,352.
Net Gain/Loss: – $3,648.
Last Week: 8 wins – 12 losses (+ $1,326.)

11-Year Comprehensive Record (2012-present):
CLICK HERE
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These are final (14) bets I’ve made for the week (note that some of these were posted on Friday and lines may have changed)

This Week’s Picks:

Will Saints or Colts Make a FG in the 1Q — YES at even (risking $100 to win $100)
Kicker Player Prop: Grupe (NOR) OVER 6.5 points at even (risking $150 to win $150)
Kicker Player Prop: Gay (IND) OVER 6.5 points at -115 (risking $172 to win $150)
WR Player Prop: C. Kirk (JAX) OVER 54.5 receiving yards at -120 (risking $120 to win $100)
Houston -3 at -115 vs. Carolina (risking $345 to win $300)
Tennessee +3 (buying half point) at +130 vs. Atlanta (risking $260 to win $200)
First Half: Tennessee +1.5 at -120 (risking $180 to win $150)
Kicker Player Prop: Folk (TEN) OVER 5.5 points (risking $165 to win $150)
RB Player Prop: B. Washington (WAS) UNDER 39.5 rushing yards (risking $110 to win $100)
NY Jets -2.5 vs. NY Giants (risking $220 to win $200)
Minnesota -1 vs. Green Bay (risking $165 to win $150)
Denver +7 vs. Kansas City (risking $110 to win $100)
Kicker Player Prop: Santos (CHI) OVER 5.5 points at -115 (risking $172 to win $150)
Kicker Player Prop: Carlson (LVR) OVER 5.5 points at -120 (risking $180 to win $150)

Last Week’s Results:

Tampa Bay -2.5 vs. Atlanta (risking $220 to win $200)….LOST
First Half: Indianapolis +3 at -120 vs. Cleveland (risking $180 to win $150)….LOST
Indianapolis +3.5 vs. Cleveland (risking $165 to win $150)….WON
First Half: Detroit +1.5 at -115 vs. Baltimore (risking $172 to win $150)….LOST
Detroit +3 vs. Baltimore (risking $165 to win $150)….LOST
Washington -2.5 vs, NY Giants at -120 (risking $180 to win $150)….LOST
Kansas City -5.5 vs. LA Chargers (risking $220 to win $200)….WON
Green Bay -1 vs, Denver (risking $165 to win $150)….LOST
Philadelphia -2.5 vs. Miami (risking $165 to win $150)….WON
Green Bay / Denver UNDER 45 (risking $220 to win $200)….WON
Pittsburgh / LA Rams UNDER 43.5 (risking $110 to win $100)….WON
Team Total: Seattle OVER 26.5 points (risking $220 to win $200)….LOST
Two Team 6-point Teaser: Buffalo -2.5 vs. NWE / Seattle -1.5 vs. ARZ at -120 (risking $600 to win $500)….LOST
Kicker Player Prop: McLaughlin (TB) OVER 5.5 points at -130 (risking $195 to win $150)….WON
Kicker Player Prop: Gay (IND) OVER 6.5 points at even (risking $150 to win $150)….WON
Kicker Player Prop: Boswell (PIT) OVER 6.5 points at +105 (risking $150 to win $157)….LOST
Kicker Player Prop: Gano (NYG) OVER 5.5 points at -120 (risking $180 to win $150)….LOST
Kicker Player Prop: Maher (LAR) OVER 6.5 points at -125 (risking $187 to win $150)….LOST
Kicker Player Prop: Carlson (GB) OVER 6.5 points at -105 (risking $157 to win $150)….LOST
Kicker Player Prop: Lutz (DEN) OVER 6.5 points (risking $165 to win $150)….WON