Week #6 — 2023 NFL Analysis and Picks

 

 

“First lesson in business is: Don’t get emotional about stock, it clouds your judgment.”

— Gordon Gekko (from movie, Wall Street)

I’m doing something very different this week.  Many of my picks will be on video.  I like mixing things up, and here’s a chance to have some fun.

Scroll down to watch the video (with some obligatory profanity).

First, here’s an update on the Westgate SuperContest.

 

Westgate SuperContest Picks (Week #6)

 

Last week was break even (17.5 points out of a possible 35), but I was still angry because of how picks that looked solid at kickoff ended up losing. More like disgusted.

We are closing in on the first third of the season, and all 7 handicapping contest tickets are still alive. Overall, I’m +18 games over the .500 mark.  But that’s not good enough to be in the money–not yet.  Five tickets are in pretty good shape. One is in vey good position. The goal is to get 2-3 tickets onto “the first page” which means page one of the weekly posted Westgate website — representing getting in the top-100. It does me no good to finish 101st in this contest, even though that is an impressive top-10 percent finish.

A point about strategy. I’ve got to get aggressive with tickets and get as many onto the first page by midseason as possible. If I can get 3 tickets in the top-100, with 8 weeks to go, I will be in decent shape to cash at least one of them (probably in the 30 percent range based on my rough math). Going into the contest, I had roughly a 5 percent chance to cash (7 tickets out of 1,300 entries). I figure I’m now at about 12 percent. Now, I need a few 4-1 or 3-2 weeks in a row, and I’ll be fine. So, I’m concentrating the wagers and gambling a bit here by trying to move multiple tickets onto the first page.

NOTE: Great future topic for conversation—is it better to diversify or concentrate picks depending on where one stands in handicapping contests?).

 

TICKET 1 (14-8-3):
SFO -7 v. CLE
BUF -14 v. NYG
BAL -4 v. TEN
MIA -13.5 v. CAR
DET -3 v. TB

TICKET 2 (14-10-1):
SFO -7 v. CLE
BUF -14 v. NYG
MIA -13.5 v. CAR
DET -3 v. TB
WAS +2.5 v. ATL

TICKET 3 (16-8-1):
SFO -7 v. CLE
BUF -14 v. NYG
BAL -4 v. TEN
MIA -13.5 v. CAR
NOR -1 v. HOU

TICKET 4 (13-10-2):
SFO -7 v. CLE
BUF -14 v. NYG
BAL -4 v. TEN
DET -3 v. TB
LAC +2.5 v. DAL

TICKET 5 (11-13-1):
SFO -7 v. CLE
BUF -14 v. NYG
MIA -13.5 v. CAR
WAS +2.5 v. ATL
NOR -1 v. HOU

TICKET 6 (10-13-2):
SFO -7 v. CLE
BUF -14 v. NYG
BAL -4 v. TEN
DET -3 v. TB
LAC +2.5 v. DAL

TICKET 7 (13-11-1):
SFO -7 v. CLE
BUF -14 v. NYG
BAL -4 v. TEN
MIA -13.5 v. CAR
NOR -1 v. HOU

 

*****************************************************
2023 NFL WAGERING RECORD
48 — Wins
55 — Losses
2 — Pushes
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $7,308.
Net Gain/Loss: – $2,692.
Last Week: 6 wins – 8 losses (- $402.)

11-Year Comprehensive Record (2012-present):
CLICK HERE
*****************************************************

 

WATCH VIDEO HERE:

 

This Week’s Picks: 23 wagers

 

Baltimore -4 (risking $165 to win $150)
Washington +3 and buying a half point up to the 3 at -130 (risking $130 to win $100)
First Half: Washington +1.5 at -115 (risking $115 to win $100)
WAS Player Prop: Joey Slye (kicker) OVER 5.5 points at -135 (risking $135 to win $100)
Seattle +3 at -115 (risking $230 to win $200)
First Half: Seattle +1.5 at -105 (risking $105 to win $100)
Seattle Team Total OVER 21 (risking $110 to win $100)
First Quarter: Seattle/Cincinnati OVER 7.5 at -112 (risking $112 to win $100)
San Francisco -9.5 (risking $220 to win $200)
Miami -13.5 (risking $220 to win $200)
Carolina/Miami OVER 47.5 (risking $220 to win $200)
Detroit -3 (risking $220 to win $200)
New Orleans -1.5 (risking $165 to win $100)
NOR Player Prop: Blake Grupe (kicker OVER 6.5 points at -105 (risking $105 to win $100)
HOU Player Prop: Kaimi Fairbairn (kicker) OVER 6.5 points at -109 (risking $109 to win $100)
Arizona +7 (risking $165 to win $150)
First Half: Arizona +3.5 at -112 (risking $112 to win $100)
First Quarter: Arizona +1.5 at -108 (risking $108 to win $100)
ARZ Player Prop: Matt Prater (kicker) OVER 6.5 points at EVEN (risking $100 to win $100)
NYG Player Prop: Tyler Bass (kicker) OVER 4.5 points at -135 (risking $135 to win $100)
MNF: LA Chargers +2.5 (risking $220 to win $200
First Half: LA Chargers +1.5 at -130 (risking $130 to win $100)

ADDING:

First Half: Indianapolis +3 (risking $165 to win $150)

 

Last Week’s Results

 

First Half: Jacksonville +3.5 (risking $110 to win $100)…..WON
Jacksonville +5.5 (risking $220 to win $200)….WON
Houston Team Total OVER 19.5 at -145 (risking $145 to win $100)….LOST
First Half: Houston +.5 (risking $110 to win $100)….WON
Houston + 1.5 (risking $165 to win $150)….LOST
Detroit -10 (risking $110 to win $100)….WON
Tennessee -2.5 (risking $165 to win $150)….LOST
First Half: Arizona +1.5 at -105 (risking $105 to win $100)….LOST
Arizona +3 (risking $165 to win $150)….LOST
Miami -12 (risking $220 to win $200)…..WON
Philadelphia/LA Rams UNDER 50.5 (risking $220 to win $200)….WON
First Half: Green Bay +.5 at -125 (risking $187 to win $150)….LOST
Green Bay +3 (buying half point to -135) (risking $135 to win $100)…..LOST
Teaser — Washington +.5 / Detroit -2.5 at -120 (risking $240 to win $200)….LOST