Week #5 — 2023 NFL Analysis and Picks
First, let’s take a moment to reflect upon NFL legend Dick Butkus, who died on Thursday. Butkus was the embodiment of the tough guy middle linebacker. He was the ultimate team player. Butkus played on mostly horrible Chicago Bears teams during his injury-riddled career when the grass and mud were real, when games weren’t postponed because of weather (or worse-played in domes), referees didn’t throw flags every other down, and players played for a love of the game.
What an icon.
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I enjoyed a pretty good week in the NFL with the following positives:
(1) more wins (17) than losses (11) and +$675 in profit,
(2) an outstanding week in the Westgate SuperContest, and
(3) a win in the CircaSurvivor contest.
I’d be thrilled if every week forward went just like this.
Accordingly, I’ll try to stick with what’s working. Sometimes, wins (or losses) can be a simple case of luck, too. That happened to me in a few games last week.
Here’s a look back, and then a look ahead to NFL Week #5.
What follows is an update on my entries in the two major Las Vegas handicapping contests:
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MY WEEK #5 WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST PICKS:
As I wrote earlier, this was an outstanding past week with 26 wins, 7 losses, and 2 pushes.
That puts 4 tickets in good shape, 3 in great shape, and 3 in average shape at a half-game under break even (meaning, that’s probably 3 dead tickets, now). Collectively, the 7 contest entries (at $1,000 per entry) should be at +/- 0 based on pure random chance (coin flips picking games). But we are currently +19 games over the .500 mark at the moment.
So, I’m not sure this could have started out better.
Here’s my picks on those 7 tickets for this week:
Note: Subject to changes; QB situations in NOR, CIN, etc. Breaking news; Deadline: Saturday at noon.
TICKET 1 (12-6-2):
Denver -1.5
Houston +2
Tennessee -1
Miami -11
Detroit -9.5TICKET 2 (12-8):
Denver -1.5
Houston +2
Tennessee -1
Miami -11
Detroit -9.5TICKET 3 (14-6):
Denver -1.5
Houston +2
Tennessee -1
Miami -11
Detroit -9.5TICKET 4 (11-8-1):
Denver -1.5
Houston +2
New Orleans +1
Arizona +3
San Francisco -3.5TICKET 5 (9-10-1):
Tennessee -1
Miami -11
Jacksonville +5.5
LA Rams +4.5
Baltimore -4TICKET 6 (9-10-1):
Houston +2
Detroit -9.5
Arizona +3
LA Rams +4.5
Baltimore -4TICKET 7 (9-10-1):
Denver -1.5
Jacksonville +5.5
New Orleans +1
San Francisco -3.5
Miami -11
MY WEEK #4 CIRCASURVIVOR PICK:
San Francisco won, so I’m still alive in the $9.4 million winner-take-all contest. We lost 90 players last week, leaving 2,383 in the contest.
Heading into Week #5 with one entry alive. Equity on that ticket is approximately $3,800 and since we invested $3,000, we are ahead right now. I also like our nest of teams remaining to use going forward.
READ MORE ABOUT LAST WEEK CIRCA CONTEST RESULTS HERE
READ MORE ABOUT THIS WEEK (AND MY PICK) HERE — NEW, JUST POSTED
My CircaSurvivor contest team pick for Week #5 is as follows:
CIRCASURVIVOR PICK (5): Washington Commanders vs. (Chicago Bears)
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2023 NFL WAGERING RECORD
42 — Wins
47 — Losses
2 — Pushes
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $7,710.
Net Gain/Loss: – $2,290.
Last Week: 17 wins – 11 losses (+ $675.)
11-Year Comprehensive Record (2012-present):
CLICK HERE
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Week #5 Analysis and Action: I made 14 picks this week.
BUFFALO vs. JACKSONVILLE (in London)
Line: Bills -5.5
Total: 48.5
– On paper, BUF is the better team. Perhaps even -5.5 points better than JAX. However, NFL games aren’t played on paper. Other factors influence outcomes and one intangible might be the biggest influence of all — travel and location (okay, that’s two intangibles).
– Since this game is played London, that’s very likely to favor the Jaguars, even tough they’re listed as the visiting team. JAX is playing back to back games across the Atlantic and should enjoy the obvious benefits of rest and familiarity the the conditions. This marks the 10th consecutive season JAX has played in the UK, and many players have been on this roster in previous games and should be used to the unusual situation, at least more than the Bills. Last week, the Jaguars covered easily as -3 point favorites and dominated the woeful Atlanta Falcons 23-7. JAX needs this game, knows the layout, is probably more rested from travel considerations, and is getting nearly a touchdown as the underdog. Seems like an obvious play to me.
– This could also be a prime letdown spot for the favorite. Teams like BUF off of huge offensive bursts are usually good teams to bet against the following weeks. Here’s a stat: Teams that score 45 points or more have followed that up with an 11-20 ATS (35 pct) record when favored by 3 points or more over the last 10 seasons.
– Summation: I expect a close game where the points could come into play and be the determining factor in cashing a winning ticket. Note the 6:30 am PDT start time.
My Pick(s):
First Half: Jacksonville +3.5 (risking $110 to win $100)
Jacksonville +5.5 (risking $220 to win $200)
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HOUSTON at ATLANTA
Line: Falcons -1.5
Total: 41.5
– It’s too early to anoint Houston as a playoff contender quite yet, but based on what I’ve seen for the last 10 quarters – which is 2 and 1/2 games – there’s no doubt this Texans team is playing its best football in years. QB CJ Stroud looks like the real deal (7TDs/0INTs, Texans’ passing offense ranks #5) and as long as the defense can step up and play decently it looks like the Houston offense is coming into form and could make the Texans into a contender for the division title. Don’t laugh. Since every team in the AFC South is 2-2 and there’s not a real standout, I was speaking with a colleague and we agree that the Texans at +475 to win the division is worth a shot.
– For Houston to have any chance at what would be a stunning turnaround and a division title they need to win critical games like this against a mediocre opponent with a quarterback that doesn’t quite seem quite sure of himself. I’ve been on the Falcons a few times this season and from what I’ve seen from QB D. Ridder I’m not impressed (3 TDs/3INTs, Falcon’s passing offense ranks #31st). The Birds’ running game is supposed to be their bread and butter and RB B. Robinson looks solid, but this offensive unit scored just 13 points vs. Jags and Lions — not exactly two stellar defenses.
– Taking the Texans plus anything here is a no brainer. I’m going to play Houston +1.5 for the game; First Half + a half point; and I also expect Stroud to punch it in the end zone and put enough points on the board to eclipse the 19.5 team total for Houston, even though that’s juiced up to -145 . So, I’m playing three bets on the Texans here and hoping they continue this impressive streak, as opposed to a team that’s streaking in the opposite direction it’s last couple of games.
My Pick(s)
Houston Team Total OVER 19.5 at -145 (risking $145 to win $100)
First Half: Houston +.5 (risking $110 to win $100)
Houston + 1.5 (risking $165 to win $150)
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Carolina at Detroit
Line: Lions -10
Total: 44
– It’s very rare for me to lay double digits in the NFL, but here’s one of two games where I’m doing that this week. I think here laying a high number is justified. So far, we’ve seen nothing from the Carolina offense that shows that they can keep up with a team like the Lions which is going to be well rested and likely in a position to roll up points and cover a high spread.
– Typically, with young teams and rookie quarterbacks we look for slow, but steady improvement but I’m not seeing evidence of that with QB B. Young. Carolina comes off a dreadfully embarrassing home loss to Minnesota, which is one of the NFL’s worst defenses where the Panthers could only muster 230 total yards and 13 points. It will take far more than that to get the cover, this week.
– The pointspread has been bet up from -8.5 earlier in the week when I bet DET on a teaser; now at -10 which isn’t nearly as appealing. But I’m still going to make a small wager on the Lions thinking they probably win this one easy.
My Pick(s)
Detroit -10 (risking $110 to win $100)
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TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS
Line: Titans -2.5
Total: 43
– Tennessee is one of those teams that stays under the radar and doesn’t get much respect–either from sports media and certainly not from bettors. For example, the Titans are very quietly 3-1 against the spread this season and while they can be maddening to bet on when they don’t show up (which happens) and they rarely run up points or win in impressive fashion, when it comes to cashing, they often get the job done.
– Recall that last season -even in an injury-plagued campaign where the starting quarterback R. Tannehill was injured for much of the season- the Titans about this time of year rattled off EIGHT straight point spread covers. Then, injuries were too much to overcome and Tennessee collapsed. However, this season the Titans appear healthy again.
– TEN is rightfully’s favored here but they’re laying under a field goal. So, I’ll go against another principle which is taking road division teams and back the Titans. Tennessee has won five straight in this series in the last two times the Titans played the Colts RB D. Henry ran crazy for 242 yards. INDY was impressive coming back from being down 23 points to the Rams last week, before losing in OT. However, something’s wrong with any team that falls behind by 23 points to the Rams.
– Summation: I’ll go with the experienced team that’s been dominant in the series lately.
My Pick(s)
Tennessee -2.5 (risking $165 to win $150)
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CINCINNATI at ARIZONA
Line: Bengals -3
Total: 44.5
– Although both teams enter Week #5 with identical 1-3 records, the current mindsets of these two teams couldn’t be more different. Cincinnati was expected to be a Super Bowl contender this season, following two consecutive AFC Championship game appearances and what looked like a solid, well-coached team entering the 2023 campaign loaded with confidence. Then, QB Joe Burrow was injured in preseason, and the Bengals have turned into the NFL’s most disappointing team. Not only have they lost three games already, those defeats were ugly. The Bengals currently rank dead last in team offense — yeah, even worse than the Giants and Panthers. Gasp!
– Cincinnati comes to the desert this weekend desperate for a victory, and even if they get the W, it should be a close game, close enough to take +3 points with the home dog. I’ll put it this way–I’ll take the other side of a #32 ranked offense that’s laying points in almost any situation.
– Arizona was expected to be in full rebuilding mode, but nobody told the feisty Cardinals they were supposed to be bad. Instead, Arizona has fought valiantly in all four games this season, covering the pointspread in 3 of 4 games. They walloped the heavily favored Dallas Cowboys at home two weeks ago. The Cardinals also played tough in San Francisco for three quarters last week before running out of gas and losing by a score that was somewhat misleading.
– Moreover, Arizona has played a brutally tough schedule, to date. They’ve faced five straight .500 or better teams from last season, including four playoff teams, and three Super Bowl contenders. Arizona has proven time and time again they’re on the right track and able to compete with any team in the league when at their best, so long as they can avoid mistakes. And until I see the Bengals of old, and Burrow playing again with confidence, I’m happy to bet against them.
– Key Stat 1: Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games dating back to last season. Maybe it’s the perfect Arizona weather this time of year but the Cardinals are 15-6 against-the-spread the last five seasons in the month of October.
– Key Stat 2: Bengals have not led at halftime in any of four games this season. Cardinals have led at halftime in 3/4 games. Give me the Cardinals in the first half, as well.
– Summation The wrong team might be favored in this game. Give me the Cardinals plus the points for the 1H and the full game.
My Pick(s)
First Half: Arizona +1.5 at -105 (risking $105 to win $100)
Arizona +3 (risking $165 to win $150)
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Here’s the rest of the plays I made this week:
Miami -12 (risking $220 to win $200)
Philadelphia/LA Rams UNDER 50.5 (risking $220 to win $200)
First Half: Green Bay +.5 at -125 (risking $187 to win $150)
Green Bay +3 (buying half point to -135) (risking $135 to win $100)
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Chicago at Washington
Line: Pigskins -5.5
Total: 44
– Note (above) that I made this my survivor pool pick for this week. However, I won’t be betting heavily on the game (things could change, as this initial report is being posted 48 hours before kickoff). The line has bounced between 5.5 and 6.5 and will probably settle at 6. However, I could see late public money thinking Chicago sucks so bad, and if the volume is high enough, perhaps some books shift back to -6.5. That’s why I’m locking on one wager *now.*
– I do worry about overreacting to the disarray in Chicago. Typically, sports media reporting blows these issues out of proposition. That said, it’s probably applicable to the Bears as the W-L record doesn’t lie. QB J. Fields played exceptionally well last week, accounting for 5 touchdowns. He’s obviously the Bears’ game plan, and we’ve seen flashes of brilliance when he’s carried the offense by himself. However, Chicago defense is dreadful, allowing massive yards and points.
– Moreover, the Bears are in the midst of a horrid losing streak. Not only is Chicago 0-4 SU on the 2023 season (0-3-1 ATS), but they also lost their final 10 games of 2022 as well, with 14 of their last 15 games overall ending in a loss.
– At least Washington can point to 2 victories (2-2 SU and 2-2 ATS), plus the fact they played their best game of the season last week, taking Philadelphia into overtime on the road. That was impressive. Obviously, Washington’s mental state might be a serious concern, coming off such a huge emotional disappointment to a division rival. Nonetheless, I expect that since both teams lost close games they could have won, that will favor Washington as the home team on a short week, and with a defense that seems due to step up and finally play a game reminiscent of the unit what was #7 overall in the NFL last season (Chicago was dead last at #32).
– More about the putrid Bears defense: Chicago allowed 25+ points in 14 straight games, an NFL record (not the kind of history a team wants to make). This season, Bears are giving up 34 points per game. Washington has been effective running the ball, averaging 4.5 YPC and should be able to exploit this soft resistance. Bears also rank dead-last in the league in third-down defense.
– Summation: I’m comfortable betting Washington to win the game which is why I made them a pool pick. I’m also good with teasing Washington down from -5.5 to +.5 (half point). Teasing across the zero isn’t advised, but in case this game gets sloppy and ends in a tie, I want the win on the teaser. I’ll combine this with a teaser on Detroit (from -8.5 down to -2.5).
My Pick(s):
Teaser — Washington +.5 / Detroit -2.5 at -120 (risking $240 to win $200)….LOST
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Last Week’s Results: 17-11-1 (+$675)
Atlanta +3 (risking $220 to win $200)….LOST
First Half: Atlanta +2.5 (risking $110 to win $100)….LOST
First Half Team Total: Atlanta OVER 9.5 points at -130 (risking $130 to win $100)….LOST
Player Prop: Tyler Allgeier (ATL) OVER 37.5 rushing yards at -115 (risking $115 to win $100)….LOST
Baltimore +2 (risking $220 to win $200)….WON
First Quarter: Baltimore +1.5 at -150 (risking $150 to win $100)….WON
Buying half point (BALT moved to +2.5, so buy price is -140)….Baltimore +3 (risking $210 to win $150)….WON
First Half: Tennessee +1.5 at -130 (risking $130 to win $100)….WON
First Half Team Total: Tennessee OVER 9.5 points at -115 (risking $115 to win $100)….WON
Player Prop: TE Chigoziem Okonkwo OVER 31.5 receiving yards at -115 (risking $115 to win $100)….LOST
Denver -3 at -115 (risking $240 to win $200)….PUSH
Player Prop: QB J. Fields OVER 0.5 interceptions at -115 (risking $115 to win $100)….WON
First Half: LA Rams/Indianapolis UNDER 21.5 at -105 (risking $105 to win $100)….WON
LA Rams/Indianapolis UNDER 46 (risking $110 to win $100)….LOST
First Half: Miami/Buffalo UNDER 27.5 (risking $165 to win $150)….LOST
Miami/Buffalo UNDER 53.5 (risking $165 to win $150)….LOST
First Quarter: Carolina +1.5 at -130 (risking $130 to win $100)….WON
Carolina +4.5 (risking $220 to win $200)….LOST
Player Prop: WR A. Thielen OVER 4.5 receptions (risking -$165 to win $150)….WON
First Half Team Total: Houston OVER 9.5 at -125 (risking $125 to win $100)….WON
First Half: Houston +1.5 at -125 (risking $125 to win $100)….WON
Houston Team Total OVER 19.5 at -120 (risking $240 to win $200)….WON
Houston +3 (risking $240 to win $200)….WON
Game Prop: Will either Tampa Bay-New Orleans kick a FG in the 1Q–YES at even money (risking $150 to win $150)….WON
Player Prop: PK Chase McLaughlin OVER 5.5 points at -130 (risking $130 to win $100)….WON
Player Prop: QB Justin Herbert OVER 281.5 passing yards (risking -110 to win $100)….LOST
Team Points: LA Chargers OVER 26.5 at -115 (risking $115 to win $100)….LOST
LA Chargers -4.5 (risking $220 to win $200)….WON
MNF: Seattle -1.5 (risking $220 to win $200)….WON
