Thursday Night Football Pick

 

 

Here’s my analysis and a pick on tonight’s TNF game between the New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals.

I’ll have the remainder of NFL Week 7 games covered and posted here in the next few days.

 

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2022 NFL WAGERING RECORD

50  Wins

27  Losses

0  Pushes 

Starting Bankroll:     $10,000.

Current Bankroll:     $14,240.

Net Gain/Loss:     + $4,240.     

Last Week’s Results:     10 wins – 4 losses (+1,100.)

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[TNF] New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -2.5
O/U: 43.5
Moneylines: Saints +125 / Cardinals -145
Analysis: Will Thursday Night Football tonight be another snoozefest? The Saints-Cardinals game may not seem like a thriller for casual fans, but it’s a terrific betting opportunity for gamblers. I keep on saying this over and over again — who really gives a shit if the game is exciting when we’re betting on it? Give me a boring game and a winner every time, and I’ll be thrilled. To me, that’s “exciting.” The past two TNF contests produced a grand total of just 40 points and the two offenses on display tonight could make for another low-scoring game. Indeed, a pair of disappointing teams with 2-4 records may not inspire much excitement. However, that doesn’t diminish what’s at stake here for both teams. The winner remains very much alive in the playoff conversation, while the loser could see the season basically be over as early as October. Tonight’s game probably means more to the Cardinals in many ways. Rumors are now swirling about head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s and his job security in Phoenix. The public perception of Arizona is far worse than the Saints, who can at least blame numerous offensive injuries for their shortcomings. Arizona has no excuses. A loss tonight could put Kingsbury much closer to the unemployment line. On the field, tonight’s big story will be the return of superstar DeAndre Hopkins for Arizona. Can one player make a difference? Will one of the game’s premier WRs jump-start an offense that’s been as exciting as a dead car battery? We shall see. I see WR Hopkins’s sparking the Cardinals but not in the manner one expects. He’ll draw added attention and extra coverage which likely opens up other targets for QB Kyler Murray (Look for TE Ertz to enjoy a big game). I’m also more motivated tonight by a “bet against” situation with New Orleans. The Saints come into this matchup on a short week off a crushing loss at home vs. Cincy, which can’t be an easy situation. New Orleans has played only 2/6 games on the road, and failed to cover in both. That includes an 8-point loss at Carolina which may be the NFL’s ultimate badge of shame right now. Doubters of Arizona as a favorite may correctly point out the Cards are 0-3 at home, but then look at their level of competition — losses to 4-2 Kansas City (a Top-5 team), the Super Bowl champion 3-3 LA Rams when they were healthier, and the undefeated 6-0 Phila. Eagles (who ARZ may have defeated had the kicker not blown a short FG in the final seconds). Here’s a severe step-down in the class of competition. The Saints are dealing with injuries at virtually all skill positions. Both QBs — Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton (average, at best given their career trajectories) — are both listed as questionable. The Saints’ top two wide receivers are also out of action. New Orleans scored points and played an inspired game last week under similar circumstances, but it’s tough for losing teams to repeat that performance, especially given the travel and less prep time. Arizona with the home advantage tonight, likely getting a boost in confidence with a new scoring threat on offense, laying less than a FG looks like a good bet. I’ll take Arizona at -2.5 points.
My Pick: Arizona -2.5 — Risking $220 to win $200

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