Taking Denver Tonight on the Moneyline (+145)

Note:  I’ll be releasing several NFL-related posts in the next few days.  Here are my thoughts on tonight’s NFL regular season opener, Carolina at Denver.  

NFL WEEK 1 PREDICTION:  CAROLINA AT DENVER

The Basics:  Carolina plays at Denver in the NFL’s much-anticipated Thursday night opener, which has become known as the annual “Kickoff Game.”  This contest is a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl game, won by the Broncos 24-10.

Opening Line:  Broncos -1 / Broncos Money Line -115 / Total – 43.5

Updated Line:  Panthers -3 / Panthers Money Line -165 / Total – 40.5

Interpreting Line/Total Movement:  It’s rare to see an NFL game line move 4 points.  The total has dropped 3.5 points.  These line moves were almost entirely due to Denver’s uncertain quarterback situation.

Head coach Gary Kubiak surprised just about everyone when he announced a week ago that second-year player Trevor Siemian will be the Broncos’ starter.  He beat out a weak crop of contending starters in pre-season and will take what will be only his second NFL snap ever when he lines up behind center to face the hungry Panthers, seeking their revenge.

One has to wonder if the line and total would have remained the same had Mark Sanchez gotten the nod instead, as was anticipated when the opening line was set (Denver -1).

And so — is Siemian REALLY worth a 4-point reduction from Sanchez (now gone)?  Moreover, is Siemian’s first start worthy of a 3.5-point shift on the total, which crosses at least one key number (43)?  Assuming we agree the drop off between Sanchez and Siemian is minimal, this seems to be gross public overreaction.

About the Panthers:  Carolina looks to extract some measure of revenge after being shut down by Denver’s stifling defense last year.  Indeed, what the Broncos did was impressive.

Remember — Carolina was the NFL’s highest-scoring offense in 2015, producing 31 points-per-game.  The Panthers rolled up even bigger numbers in their two playoff games (scoring 31 and 49 points respectively) before DC Wade Phillip’s bunch pretty much humiliated Carolina with his clever schemes in the championship.

Defensively, Carolina was nearly as good last season – ranking second in the NFL in yards-per-play (#6 overall).

This is a championship-caliber team that went 15-1 in the regular season, steamrolled over two solid teams in the playoffs, and then crashed and burned when things counted the most.

The coaching staff – including head coach Ron Rivera, OC Mike Shula, and DC Sean McDermott – are now entering their fourth season together.  They’ve had six months to work on a game plan for this matchup and now get the Broncos when they appear to be vulnerable.  This should be a major statement game for the visiting Panthers who are projected to win 10.5 games this season and are prohibitive favorites to repeat as NFC South division champs.

About the Broncos:  Denver returns home as the defending Super Bowl champions, albeit without three key players who led them to victory.

Hall of Fame first-ballot lock Peyton Manning was worn down by season’s end, but had just enough left to win one final game.  His retirement opened the way for Trevor Siemian to fill some very big shoes.  However, Siemian’s probably being given too much credit for beating out what amounts to a quarterback bust (Sanchez) and an untried rookie (Lynch, now the backup).  The Broncos also lost two key starters from the first-team defense – including DE Malik Jackson and LB Danny Trevathan.

Denver went 12-4 last season.  But they weren’t particularly impressive in the playoffs, despite three straight wins.  Denver stumbled to victory against both Pittsburgh and New England.  They were out-yarded per play in all three post-season games.  Still, the Broncos got the job done, although it wasn’t always pretty.

Interestingly, Denver was a home underdog three times last season (against Green Bay, and New England – twice) and covered all three times.  The Broncos are forecast to win 9.5 games and be in a tough battle for supremacy against the Kansas City Chiefs and the up-and-coming Oakland Raiders (frauds, in my view).

Intangibles:  Super Bowl losers have not fared well the following year.  Carolina will try to defy history which reveals a bad hangover effect.

It’s been 23 years since a Super Bowl loser went back to the NFL championship game the following season.  No team since the famed 1971-1972 Miami Dolphins have lost the championship one year and then won it the next.  Losers have also been poor performers against-the-spread in the following year’s opener, evidenced by a woeful 2-11 spread record since 2003 (and 5-8 straight up).

According to Bet Labs data, the runner up has been favored by 3.2 points (on average).  Note the Panthers are favored by -3 in this game.  Teams in that role usually cover about half the time and win about 60 percent of all games in which they’re favored by a field goal.  However, a 5-8 straight up record and lowly 2-11 spread record amounts to a significant departure from the norm.  Hence, there appears to be some legitimacy to the so-called Super Bowl losers’ “curse.”

The Bottom Line:  Rarely does a game line shift 4 points, but that’s what’s happened.

If you were planning to wager on Carolina and haven’t pulled the trigger by now, the proverbial train has already departed the station.  The good number is long gone.  Unless you got the Panthers at +1 or EVEN, the time has now passed to make a play on the favorite.  Accordingly, it’s probably either a wager on the Broncos getting a field goal, or nothing at all.  Denver has history on its side.  They also manhandled the Panthers on both sides of the ball in their previous meeting.  Denver was also a perfect 3-0 against the spread as home underdogs last season.  How often do you get to bet a Super Bowl champion in their first game back at home — getting points?  Answer:  Never.  Lastly, the public is betting the hell out of Carolina, which makes me like the home dog even better.  It’s Denver, or no bet.

As for the total, contrarians will jump on the OVER which goes against the prevailing thought that this will be a game dominated by defenses.  Recall, Carolina was the highest-scoring team in the league last season and had one bad game, which is warping the prism of perception.  Denver might also be making an upgrade at the quarterback position given how Manning struggled in his final games last season, which bodes well for more scoring.  If this total moves to 40 (a key number in totals betting), this is almost a mandatory wager on the OVER.  It’s still a lean to the OVER at 40.5, though not as strong.

DENVER +3

CAROLINA/ DENVER OVER 40.5

For Gamblers Only:  For real bargain hunters and those who are risk adverse, getting the Broncos at home as +145 underdogs on the money line is about good as it gets.  Denver will be mile high for this game and are given a sweet price.  Since +3 dogs win about 40 percent of the time straight up anyway (that’s all +3 dogs, even bad teams), this would appear to be a slight overlay.

DENVER +145 MONEYLINE

Writer’s Note:  This article was posted earlier today at 2BET, where I’ll be forecasting every NFL game this season.