SuperContest (Final Week’s Picks)

Here’s the final picks for Week 18 in the 2023-24 Westgate SuperContest.

CLICK HERE TO SEE CURRENT STANDINGS

Quick version of this report: Six of our seven tickets have some chance of cashing.

Two tickets are within range of cashing for a big payout, and can possibly even win either of the two remaining contests where we are active.

Ranked by order of priority, these are the teams we need most to cover the spread in the final slate of games:

LAS VEGAS -2.5 vs. Denver
TENNESSEE +5.5 vs. Jacksonville
HOUSTON -1 vs. Indianapolis (WON)
DETROIT -3.5 vs. Minnesota
CHICAGO +3 vs. Green Bay

Here’s the breakdown on all seven contest tickets:

TICKET #1 (53-28-4)….55 points
BAL +3.5  (LOST)
TEN +5.5
CHI +3
NOR -3
LV -2.5
Comments: This is one of our two big money possibilities. Tied for 4th place in the Main Contest (oddly enough, with our ticket #3). Will be tough to win the championship, unless this goes 4-1-1 or better. So long as this ticket goes 2-3 or better, it should cash. This ticket is 1 point/win out of the money in the Second-Half Contest, and 2 points/wins behind the leader. On the team selections, note there’s only two teams with shared crossover to ticket #3. We want to diversify the picks so as to have two shots at the target (moving up in both contests). A 3-2 finish isn’t a bad thing, but 4-1 is much better since it likely results in a cash in both contests.

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TICKET #2 (51-31-3)….52.5 points
HOU -1  (WON)
TEN +5.5
TB -4.5
DET -3.5
LV -2.5
Comment: This is one of our two wild card tickets, since it’s on the fringe of cashing in the Main Contest, tied in 22nd place (contest pays top-20). It’s only a half point/win behind making the money, so anything 3-2 or better puts this ticket in play for a possible cash. Note some diversity on this ticket which shares some common teams with tickets #1 and #3, but also adds a few others. This ticket has no shot at cashing in the Second-Half Contest, unless is goes 5-0, and even that might not be good enough. Even though this ticket ranks higher than ticket #7, that other ticket probably has higher +EV since it’s live in both contests.

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TICKET #3 (54-29-2)….55 points
HOU -1  (WON)
TEN +5.5
DET -3.5
LV -2.5
MIA +3

Comment: This is the big money ticket. It’s tied for 4th place in the Main Contest. So long as this ticket goes 2-3 or better, it should cash. Even better than that, it’s all alone in 2nd place in the Second-Half Contest, just half a game behind the leader ($75,000 for first place). It will be very difficult to make up a 2.5 point/win differential in the Main Contest, so the goal is to hold our position, but win the Second-Half Contest (or take second place, which pays $40,000). If everything else on our slate crashes and burns, if this ticket performs well, we still could clean up with a huge win. Also note there is some hedging possibility since the MIA-BUF game kicks off SNF.

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TICKET #4 (48-34-3)….49.5 points
TB -4.5
NOR -3
TEN +5.5
DET -3.5
LV -2.5

Comment: This is a dead ticket. Even with a perfect 5-0 week, it will miss the money on both contests by perhaps 1-2 points. It’s been our worst performing ticket of the 7.  Rough result to accept since it may end up finishing +14 games over .500, but because of the peculiar pattern of wins and losses, it never had much of a chance of returning prize money in any contest this season.

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TICKET #5 (48-34-3)….49.5 points
HOU -1  (WON)
TEN +5.5
TB -4.5
DET -3.5
LV -2.5

Comment: This is a longshot ticket. Going 5-0 gives this ticket some chance of cashing in the Second-Half Contest. It’s 2.5 points/wins behind the #5 (cashing) spot right now.

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TICKET #6 (47-32-5)….49.5 points
HOU -1  (WON)
TEN +5.5
DET -3.5
LV -2.5
LAR +4.5

Comment: This is a longshot ticket. Going 4-1 or 5-0 gives this some chance of cashing in the Second-Half Contest. It’s 2 points/wins behind the #5 (cashing) spot right now.

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TICKET #7 (49-32-4)….51 points
HOU -1  (WON)
TB -4.5
CHI +3
TEN +5.5
LV -2.5

Comment: This is one of two wild card tickets, along with ticket #2. Needs to go 4-1 or 5-0 to have any chance of cashing, but it’s live in both remaining contests. It’s 1.5 points/wins behind the #20 (cashing) spot right now in Main Contest. It’s 2 points/wins behind the #5 (cashing) spot right now in Second-Half Contest.

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