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Posted by on Feb 3, 2013 in Blog, Sports Betting | 4 comments

NFL Plays: Super Bowl XLVII

Louisiana Superdome

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD

94 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 22.6 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $12,260. —– (+$2,260)

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  13-7-0

 

Comments:  Despite the hype, this is my least favorite week of the NFL season.  Betting is reduced to a single game.  Give me any week of the regular season when there are a dozen or so games to chose from and a multitude of options.  That said, the Super Bowl does provide some interesting opportunities for proposition bettors.  That’s where the real money is to be made.  I have four recommendations for this game.

 

SUPER BOWL WAGERS:

 

Baltimore +4 vs. San Francisco (-110) — for 2 units

This line has bounced back and forth between 3-4 points ever since the opener.  Assuming you can get +4 (which was available today at Caesars Las Vegas), there’s enough value to place a wager on the underdog.  Baltimore has proven its ability to beat the league’s best teams, on the road, no less.  Getting a key number +4 for this game makes this a playable wager.  

 

First Quarter:  Baltimore plus .5 (-130) — for 4 units  <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>

There’s enough value on this number to make a wager on the underdog in the first quarter.  I’d line this at least at -150, f not higher.  San Francisco has proven to be a miserable bet in the first 15 minutes.  They’ve been favored in this spot most weeks, but managed to cover only once at the end of the first quarter during their last six games.  My theory — QB Kaepernick loosens up and plays better as the game goes along.  But his early numbers (and those of the 49er offense) have been awful– losing 0-10 to Atlanta, losing 7-14 to Green Bay, losing 0-3 to Arizona, losing 0-14 to Seattle, beating New England 7-0 (despite three fumbles), and tied 0-0 to Miami.  That’s just 14 points in SIX games — or an average of LESS THAN 3 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER during that span.  And now, they are laying points in the first quarter?  No one else seems to be aware of these stats — as line has not moved since the opener.  Great example of public loving the favorite but ignoring the numbers which suggest a slow-starting team.  An added bonus — Baltimore has the better field goal kicker….Tucker 32/35 versus Akers 30/44 on attempts……that’s 3 misses for Tucker (Baltimore) to 14 misses for Akers (San Francisco).

 

Proposition:  San Francisco Scores More Points in the SECOND HALF/OT lined at -.5 (-110) — for 3 units

To be clear, this prop asks during “which half” will San Francisco score more points — the 1H or the 2H (plus OT, if necessary).  I  must lay -110 and give up a half point, since I have chosen the 49ers to score more 2H points than 1H points.  I have already alluded to San Francisco’s slow starts in its games.  But they’ve also been absolutely stellar as a second-half team.  Super Bowls are usually higher scoring in the 2H anyway (11 of the last 14 games have posted more 2H points).  I would bet the prop for BOTH TEAMS to combine for more 2H points also, but that requires a higher lay price of -130.  I see far more value in wagering this just as a 49ers prop, given their poor first quarter performances, plus Super Bowl history which shows scoring in games tends to be considerably higher in the second half.

 

Proposition:  Will Kaepernick Throw an Interception? YES (-130) — for 3 units

Baltimore has five interceptions in its three playoff games, versus some pretty good quarterbacks (Luck, Manning, and Brady).  I see at least one going the Ravens’ way in this game and think this is a reasonable price to lay.

 

 

LAST WEEK’S WAGERS:  1 wins and 0 losses….plus 7.0 units

BALTIMORE / NEW ENGLAND UNDER 51 (-110) — for 7 units  <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>

 

4 Comments

  1. I took the Money Line on Baltimore, since historically, more often than not, if the dog covers they win outright.

    • NOLAN REPLIES: That’s also tempting. However, if you can capture those key numbers (3 and 4) I like playing it a bit safer. Also allows more lattitude for middling at halftime. Let’s hope Baltimore wins outright and we both cash tickets.

      — ND

  2. Looks good, thanks!

  3. I understand, Nolan. Unfortunately, I lack the luxury of being able to make half time plays.

    We both won, but you didn’t have to sweat it like I did!!!

    EXCELLENT call on the first quartet wager!

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