Ride the Wave: Week 2 NFL Preseason Bets
2021 NFL PICKS (PRESEASON 2)
The NFL preseason is well underway. Note that preseason games take place over five days — Thursday through Monday.
So, let’s continue with Preseason Week 2 analysis. Last week, I went 1-2 on the picks. Last night, my picks split, going 1-1. So, that’s 2 wins and 3 losses, so far. Note that I have far more plays than usual this week. This is Part 2 of 2, which includes an analysis of the remainder of games to be played – Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
Wagering Advice: Bet All the UNDERS
For the remainder of this week’s preseason games, I’m going to ride the wave. This wave is way too big and powerful to ignore. This simply must factor into our handicapping and the picks we decide to bet on.
Indeed, something is very different this year in the preseason. Offenses are still in hibernation. And coaching staffs don’t want to show much in these “meaningless” games. The result has been a wave of UNDERS that is unprecedented. Never before have we witnessed such an overwhelming trend in August. It’s been said preseason games are unpredictable. But not for totals bettors. They’ve cleaned up.
Consider what we’ve witnessed so far in 2021. The UNDER is 17-3 during this preseason. If you can find anything else in sports betting that hits at an 85 percent rate, don’t tell anyone. Just keep betting it and cashing in.
But the word is slowly getting out and everyone who bets preseason has to be aware of this trend. Nonetheless, most game totals haven’t moved much. We haven’t seen sportsbooks making corrections or moving the totals. One presumes that with lower betting limits imposed in preseason vs. regular-season games, the sportsbooks aren’t too concerned with getting hit with a rash of UNDER bets. So, the countermeasure when we have a perceived edge is to pound the board. It’s hammer time!
All three games played this week so far have gone UNDER the total. Moreover, no preseason game out of 20 trials has seen more than 40 points scored. That’s incredible. I don’t know how anyone can fade this trend, let alone not bet it across the board. So, that’s precisely what I’ll be doing with the remainder of Week 2 preseason games. I’m betting the UNDER on every contest:
Buffalo at Chicago UNDER 37.5
NY Jets at Green Bay UNDER 31
Atlanta at Miami UNDER 35.5
Baltimore at Carolina UNDER 35.5
Detroit at Pittsburgh UNDER 36.5
Tennessee at Tampa Bay UNDER 35
Houston at Dallas UNDER 36
Indianapolis at Minnesota UNDER 37
Las Vegas at LA Rams UNDER 34
Denver at Seattle UNDER 38 (this total has inexplicably gone up!)
Sun: NY Giants at Cleveland UNDER 35.5
Sun: San Francisco at LA Chargers UNDER 34.5
Sun: Jacksonville at New Orleans UNDER 40.5 (Best Bet)
For the purposes of betting and record-keeping, I’ll be wagering $220 to win $200 on each play above.
C’mon defense! Here’s to betting against points being scored!