My Picks for NFL Week 8
NOLAN DALLA: 2014 NFL SEASON RECORD (through end of Week 7)
51 WINS – 49 LOSSES — 1 PUSHES
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $6,295.
NET GAIN/LOSS: – $3,705.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 4 – 8 – 1
The regular season is fast approaching the midway point. Based on my win-loss record and the vig I’ve bled, I could have flipped a coin wearing a blindfold and come up with these same results.
I’m posting 14 picks this week. Light a match and get ready.
THIS WEEKS PICKS: (Note: Always review plays just before kickoff for late additions/scratches based on injuries or weather)
Detroit/Atlanta OVER 46.5 — $330 to win $300
Lions have become an UNDER team lately, boasting one of the best defenses in the league. No doubt, this is the best defensive front in football. Meanwhile, Atlanta has looked as bas as any team in the NFL their past four games. I think the shakeup for both teams — travel to London (game is played in UK) plays into a possible shootout. Miami and Oakland, not exactly the two best offenses, put up 60+ points in the previous game. Atlanta promises to go all out on offense as there’s too much talent on this team not to have a breakout game at some point. That said, the Falcons defense has looked awful (getting torched by Cutler and Flacco in last two games). If Atlanta falls behind, they’ll have to start throwing and this will turn into a shootout. Do check weather before the game and try to capture the 46.5, which gives us the win on 47.
Tampa Bay -2.5 vs. Minnesota — $330 to win $300
Contrarian play based on gut feeling this will be an all-in game for the Bucs, who were humiliated in their last home game, a blowout loss to Baltimore. Softer opponent this week, playing another road game after a heartbreaking defeat on last play of game at Buffalo. I see Tampa as the more motivated team here, laying a soft number. These are two unpredictable teams, but I think Tampa is the right side if you subscribe to the zig-zag theory from week to week in NFL betting.
Seattle/Carolina UNDER 45 — $330 to win $300
I’m not sure where all the points are going to come from, especially with two anemic offenses recently. Seattle has not looked much like a Super Bowl winner, especially on offense. Now, they play an East Coast road game following a road loss last week. This is not a good recipe for fixing offensive problems. Carolina looks mediocre, but remarkably is leading the terrible NFC South division, which should provide some motive to play tough at home. Yet Carolina has no running game to speak of, and we saw last week that Cam Newton continues to struggle. Looks like an ugly 20-17 game which should go UNDER.
Jacksonville +6 vs. Miami — $330 to win $300
Everyone knows how much I love to bet on bad teams. I especially like them when everyone has given up on the team, which means they get some extra value. Jags are priced at a bargain this week, as they’ve shown some fight in the last few games and now play a home game versus Florida rivals. Love the letdown spot for the Dolphins here, after the upset in Chicago last week. Now, they must go on the road versus a team they could take lightly. Capturing the +6 is just enough to make me fire on the Jags. Important to catch that key number.
Baltimore/Cincinnati UNDER 45.5 — $330 to win $300
In first game of season these two teams played a game where the score was a bit deceptive. Cincinnati dominated for three quarters and led 16-0 before falling behind and finally winning a game that sailed into the mid-40s. Now, roles are reverses and Ravens are the much hotter team. Something is wrong with Cincy offense and I don’t think they straighten it out this week versus tough Ravens defense. Divisional games tend to be a little lower scoring anyway, which makes me like the UNDER. So long as it stays 44+, I’ll play the UNDER.
Arizona -2.5 vs. Philadelphia — $330 to win $300
Sharp money has supposedly moved this number down a point from -2.5 to -1.5. Eagles getting lots of love coming off the bye, and now healthier. Trigger for me is, the Cardinals STILL don’t get any respect. They remain the NFL’s best value for bettors. They’ve done everything except beat Denver on the road, and with backup quarterbacks and a team that doesn’t roll up points. So, they continue to be under the radar and not taken as seriously as the other first place teams. Fine with me. I’ll let that lack of respect line my pocket with a home win for one of the hottest teams in football playing excellent defense at the moment. Line should be -3 or -3.5.
Indianapolis -3 vs. Pittsburgh — $1,100 to win $1,000 <<<BEST BET>>>
Steelers have looked like shit in all but a couple of games this season. They were dominated last week at home, except for the last three minutes of the first half. The offensive line is a mess. They don’t pass block very well and commit a lot of penalties. Plus, I love the fact they posted a phony win last week so won’t be quite as pressured to win here this time around. Indianapolis looks to be a team that’s peaking and getting better by the week, especially on defense. The Colts shutting down Cincinnati last week was a real statement game and now they face a weaker opponent I don’t think they will take lightly. I’m not crazy about laying -3 on the road, but there’s nothing about the Steelers that impresses me and so I’ll fade them against superior opponents.
Houston -3 vs. Tennessee — $1,100 to win $1,000 <<<BEST BET>>>
Texans blew it last week and were reportedly angry following the Steelers loss, which they dominated for the most part. Now, faced with another road game and a divisional game where they must get back to .500, look for Houston to put up a much more solid effort. Tennessee starts a rookie quarterback, which obviously entices a bet on the road team. Add the fact this road team is pissed and also very solid defensively, and I think this spells a really long day for the Tennessee offense. I’ll lay a FG, and would recommend a play on anything up to -4. Line will move by game time.
Oakland +7 vs. Cleveland — $330 to win $300
Cleveland was humiliated last week at Jacksonville, which I think shows some flaws that were hidden the first five games when they played way over their heads. This team simply isn’t that good. Of course, backing the Raiders always takes a leap of faith. But getting the touchdown +7 is enough for me to make the play. Oakland definitely sees this as a winnable game and coming off two solid performances at home, I think they’ll stay in the game and keep it close.
New Orleans -1 vs. Green Bay — $330 to win $300
All or nothing game for Saints who are a super team in the Superdome. They’re something like 16-1 ATS at home and now play a must win game. Remarkably, they’re only a game out of first place in the division so this team will not give up, even after some horrible road defeats. Ridiculous 4th down pass interference call last week at Detroit cost Saints that victory. As far as I’m concerned Saints won that game. This should be the breakout game for the Saints who have underperformed all season. Fading the Packers is always risky, but it’s pretty rare for us to see New Orleans favored by less than a field goal at home. Bargain sale price on New Orleans at this number.
Washington/Dallas UNDER 49.5 — $330 to win $300
Dallas is now a running team with a solid defense. That spells UNDER. Even with the QB change, I’m not sure Washington has enough moving parts on offense to score many points. These games usually go UNDER. Look for Dallas to control the clock, dominate the time of possession, and win a 27-13 kind of game that falls well short of a high total.
1Q Chicago/New England OVER 9.5 (-140) — $420 to win $300
All Cutler has heard in Chicago this week is criticism. With his talented wideouts, ‘ll look for some fireworks early. Meanwhile, we get Brady in the 1Q as well. Looking for 10+ in the opening frame.
1H: Houston Team Total OVER 11.5 (-120) — $360 to win $300
I’m predicting a breakout game for Texans here, which should spell points for the offense. Capturing a win on the 13 is key. Playing Texans to score more than 11.5 in first half against a very bad team.
Game: Chicago Team Total OVER 22 (-130) — $390 to win $300
This wager is based on faith in Cutler and the wideouts and Chicago’s marvelous road record where they seem to excel when playing in hostile stadiums. Points should be scored no matter what happens, even with Patriots blowout. Either way, I expect Chicago to hit at least 23.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS: 6 wins, 6 losses (-$105)
ATL-NYG Teaser — Lost $350
ATL-NOR Teaser — Lost $350
SFO-DEN OVER 1Q — Won $325
NOR-DET OVER 1Q — Lost $600
CAR-GB OVER 1Q — Won $500
CAR 1Q — Lost $330
TENN 1Q — Won $300
KC +3.5 — Won $500
JAX +4.5 — Won $500
CAR-GB OVER — Won $500
NYG +5 — Lost $550
ARZ-OAK OVER — Lost $550
……………
PENDING FUTURES WAGERS:
NY GIANTS OVER 7.5 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000
DETROIT LIONS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000
MINNESOTA VIKINGS OVER 6 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS UNDER 8 WINS (-135) — Wagering $1,350 to win $1,000
CLEVELAND BROWNS UNDER 7 WINS (-150) — Wagering $1,500 to win $1,000 <<<BEST BET>>>
DALLAS COWBOYS TO MISS THE PLAYOFFS (-250) — Wagering $1,250 to win $500
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (-220) — Wagering $2,200 to win $1,000 <<<BEST BET>>>
……………
NOLAN DALLA: 2013 NFL SEASON RECORD (FINAL RESULTS)
108 WINS – 84 LOSSES — 6 PUSHES
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
ENDING BANKROLL: $14,702.
NET GAIN: + $4,702.
……………
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 NFL SEASON RECORD (FINAL RESULTS)
98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
ENDING BANKROLL: $13,460.
NET GAIN: + $3,460
