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Posted by on Sep 22, 2012 in Blog, Sports Betting | 2 comments

NFL Week 3 — Plays

 

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED SEASON RECORD 17 WINS – 10 LOSSES – 0 PUSHES —– (+ 23.8 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $12,380.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  1-0-0

Monster result last week — posting a W-L record of 13 wins and 2 losses.  Net gain of +32.6 units.  This is about as strong a week as you will ever see in the NFL.  Be warned — my win percentages will not stay at 66 percent.

Wagering $3,220. this week.

Note:  All wagers are for amusement-purposes only.  I bear no responsibility for those who may decide to follow my plays.


 

LAST WEEK’S PICKS:

6-POINT TEASER:  NY GIANTS -1 / HOUSTON -1 (5 units) — WON

6-POINT TEASER:  NY GIANTS -1 / BALTIMORE +8.5 (3 units) — WON

6-POINT TEASER:  NY GIANTS -1 / INDY +9 (3 units) — WON

GAME TOTAL:  MINNESOTA / INDY UNDER 45.5 (2 units) — WON

GAME TOTAL:  CAROLINA / NEW ORLEANS UNDER 51.5 (2 units) — LOST

GAME TOTAL:  WASHINGTON / ST. LOUIS OVER 44.5 (2 units) — WON

GAME TOTAL:  KANSAS CITY / BUFFALO OVER 44.5 (2 units) — WON

FIRST QUARTER:  WASH / STL OVER 7.5 (2 units) — WON

FIRST QUARTER:  CLEVE / CINCY OVER 7 (-125) (3 units) — WON

FIRST QUARTER:  CLEVE + .5 (-110) (2 units) — LOST

BEST BET OF THE DAY:  FIRST QUARTER:  MIA +.5 (-145) (6 units) — WON

WASHINGTON TEAM OVER 23.5 (3 units) — WON

PHILADELPHIA TEAM UNDER 24.5 (2 units) — WON

BALTIMORE TEAM OVER 22 (2 units) — WON

OAKLAND TEAM UNDER 20.5 ( 3 units) — WON

 

THIS WEEK’S PICKS:

 

 

FIRST QUARTER WAGERS


TAMPA / DALLAS OVER 9.5 (-110) — 2 units

Cowboys got off to a miserable start last week, looking for more focused effort at home…..which I think translates into points.  Bucs defense was shredded last week for 500+ yards passing and now they go on the road again — don’t think they solve those problems in six days.  Conversely, Josh Freeman coming into form perhaps and Bucs scoring points — so I’ll hope we can get a 7-3 score at the first break.

 

 

GAME SIDES

San Diego -3 vs. Atlanta (-110) — 2 units

Terrible spot for the road team here, coming off a huge MNF win and now must travel three time zones west versus solid opponent.  Not sure either team is as good as their 2-0 record indicates, but this is more of a “bet against” Atlanta than a “bet on” San Diego wager.

 

Cleveland +3 vs. Buffalo (-120) — 2 units

I see a claw and scratch game here where Browns finally get a win at home…..I’m not sure Buffalo deserves to be favored by a FG on the road against anyone.

 

 

GAME TOTALS

St. Louis / Chicago OVER 43 (-110) — 3 units

I’m still riding the OVER express on most games, convinced NFL rules favor offenses to the point where scoring is inevitable.  Two decent pass offenses here combined with some concerns about both defenses, combined with one of the lower totals on the board makes me lean OVER on this game.  I’d line this at 44 minimum and probably 44.5 or even 45.  Some value in capturing the key number 43.

 

Houston / Denver OVER 44.5 (-120) — 1 unit

Move fast or number will hit 45 and then it’s a pass……total a little too low given the pedigree of offenses playing in ideal conditions…….also looking for Houston’s defense to be finally tested for first time in this game, on road versus better team, after two easy cakewalks first two weeks.  Enough value to put a little sugar on the number at OVER 44.5 but a pass on 45.

 

Philadelphia / Arizona OVER 42 (-110) — 4 units

Mysteriously high total here, especially given history of higher-than-average scoring games in Phoenix….people know of my bias towards playing OVERS in just about every Phoenix game and I’ll stay on the train this week…..something about that stadium, the field, the dry conditions, and often wacky finishes that creates points……never seen a study on this, but is it my imagination or are there more defensive points scored in this stadium than anywhere in the NFL?  I realize that’s not scientific, but I’ll play OVER on what appears to be a low number.

 

Pittsburgh / Oakland UNDER 45 (-110) — 3 units

Hard to play UNDER given the way the NFL is going, but Oakland’s offense is so bad, I’ll fade anything in the mid-40s or higher.  RB Mendenhall still out for Pittsburgh (offset by LB Harrison out on defense perhaps), but this strikes me as an ugly game with some long drives that will eat up clock.  How can anyone bet OVER on any Raider game right now the way this team is playing?

 

 

FIRST-HALF WAGERS

St. Louis +4.5 vs. Chicago (-110) — 4 units

Rams playing well, could be 2-0, competitive team at the moment, especially on offense….not convinced Bears deserve to be laying this kind of chalk ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST HALF!, even with long rest again at home….should be a competitive game and I love getting the hook on the 4.5 here…..excellent value with a live dog.  WE GET A WIN WITH THE HOOK ON THE 4.5, WHICH IS HUGE!!!  Number should be -3 tops.

 

Cincinnati +2.5 vs. Washington (-110) — 2 units

I’m not sold on Washington yet — think the move home after two roadies actually could be a negative…..big transition from two dome stadiums and rubber grass the first two weeks to an outdoor natural grass game in warmer environment…..looking for Redskins to possibly take a step back here, especially now with some growing expectations on a young team that hasn’t been tested as a favorite.  Also like Bengals as the more veteran team getting the points.  Also like that Cincy was belted in opener at Baltimore in very similar spot and get an almost identical travel situation in a similar stadium versus a team with a much softer defense — very good spot for Cincy.  Note:  I also think there’s some value in getting a win on the +1 (which is where I might line this) — game line is +3 and it’s +2.5 for first half.

 

BET BET OF THE WEEK:  Arizona +3 vs. Philadelphia (-110) — 4 units

Eagles have been a dismal first-half team the first two games….not sure how well they travel West and play versus another 2-0 team playing with confidence (especially on defense)….love getting the field goal with the hot home team versus an opponent that’s fell behind badly in both previous games and pulled two rabbits out of its ass to win on the last drives.

 

 

TEASERS

6-POINT TWO-TEAM TEASER:  Miami +8.5 / New Orleans -3 (-110) — 2 units

Good spot for Dolphins at home again after thrashing Raiders last week, which was a confidence builder, now versus opponent playing its second straight road game and coming off a loss….always tend to lean towards division home dogs anyway…..if Jets don’t score points this week, look for grumblings to start up again in New York…..love the home team teased up and now getting more more than touchdown versus offense still with some major question marks / Other half of teaser is just a feel that Saints are way too talented on offense to not light up the scoreboard versus opponent that’s been dreadful on defense.  Of course, Saints defense ranks last in just about every category at the moment — but Chiefs are not the type of offense that can expose this, lacking enough firepower to come in and keep pace with home team in what amounts to a “must win” game.  Slight concern with the number, wishing it were -2.5 which makes me downgrade to smaller play.

 

6-POINT TWO-TEAM TEASER:  Dallas -2 / New Orleans -3 (-110) — 3 units

Adding Dallas to the Saints teaser wheel, which is in a similar spot playing back at home in a game they should win……Bucs’ stats from last week were a bit misleading…..NYG absolutely dominated first downs, time of possession, etc.  I think Dallas has enough of an edge here to lay less than a FG in a Wong teaser.

 

2 Comments

  1. Did the useless replacement refs cost you any of these?

    ADBBingo

    • Wouldn’t the scab refs be neutral EV because they could just as well botch a game in your favor?

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