NFL Week #9 [Calling in the Reinforcements]
It’s time to call in the reinforcements.
Meet Ben Mintz. He’s my reinforcement.
Ben is a sports gambler-poker SLASH player SLASH radio personality (not necessarily in that order) from the Great State of Louisiana. I’ve partied my ass off and then some with Ben, both in New Orleans and Las Vegas. I’ve also made quite a few wagers on SEC, Sun Belt, and other regional games which he follows like an open bottle of Courvoisier. Once, Ben took me to a Panic concert. He bought the tickets and that set him back like $280. In exchange for his generosity, I agreed to buy that night’s liquor. Man, did I get fucked.
Most media people aren’t good sports handicappers. In fact, they’re terrible. Television. Radio. Internet. Doesn’t matter — media personalities are terrible sports prognosticators. So, it’s probably best to fade them. However, Ben is a very notable exception. How he breaks down a game shows it’s obvious Ben is always thinking way, way outside the box. Let me explain why.
One of the hallmarks of solid handicapping is picking games and teams under the radar. Any bullshitting tout con artist can recommend taking New England and Alabama, every week. But show me the rare sports handicapper who is nailing moneyline underdogs and staying above the surface. Now, THAT’S a real pro.
Recall that in the six years I’ve been posting gambling-related advice, I’ve recommended only one other gambling sage — and that was/is Matt Lessinger (who excels at MMA, boxing, and awards shows betting). I’m adding to my exclusive stable by recommending that you listen to Ben’s betting wisdom. Yeah, he’s that good.
[By the way, he’s not selling anything here not touting — so when I say LISTEN, that means listening to what he knows, which is Southeast regional sports.]
I’ve seen Ben ahead of the betting game for a long time. Sure, he has his losing weeks, like anyone else. But lately, I’ve watched Ben hit some big moneyline underdogs. He even does something I never recommend, which is to parlay. Hey, Ben is good, but he’s not perfect. I hate parlays and recommend to NEVER bet them (unless correlated). But I’ll let Ben slide here since he’s on a roll.
Last week, Ben sent me a text (which he doesn’t do often) and stated he LOVED two moneyline underdogs in college football — Kansas (getting +14 which upset TCU outright) and Kentucky (which getting +7 upset Missouri outright). He parlayed them on the moneyline and hit a huge 30-1 payout.
This week, I asked Ben for his best monyeline plays and I couldn’t believe what he gave me on Saturday (anyone who wants to verify this — I have the texts). Ben loved two dogs to win outright — Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 and SMU +14. He bet them both on the moneyline. Bam! Both not only covered — they won outright!
That’s fucking impressive. Two big dogs, more than a touchdown, one more than TWO touchdowns. And they win. Oh, and LA-Monroe won by 19 on the road! And SMU won by 14 versus a ranked team.
I don’t do commercial announcements. When I recommend something to readers, especially gambling-related, it’s straight from the heart. In the past, I’ve recommended 888poker as the online poker site to play (if you can get access where legal in your area) for many reasons. I’ve also recommended avoiding many sportsbooks and casinos and poker rooms. — way too many to list. I’ve also stated to avoid tout services like the plague.
One thing I can and will recommend proudly is Ben Mintz’s radio show, which airs weekdays. You can follow Ben and listen to his show via his Facebook page HERE.
Thanks to last week’s results, I’m very close to even for the season. Now, it’s time to make my move and get into the profit category for the season.
2018 NFL REGULAR SEASON RESULTS
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BALANCE: $9,916. [- $84.]
OVERALL W-L RECORD: 27 wins / 30 loses / 3 pushes
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS: 1-0 [not included in W-L record, above since it’s a moneline play]
Pittsburgh Steelers [Moneyline -400] vs. Cleveland Browns — Won $1,761
THIS WEEK’S PICKS: (Note: All lines are taken from Westgate Las Vegas as of Saturday afternoon):
I have taken Ben’s comments, edited them for clarity, and am posting his thoughts on the games. I’m also mixing them in with my own thoughts on this week’s wagers.
Here we go!
GAME TOTAL: Atlanta / Washington Under 48 (-110) — Risking $550 to win $500
Ben: I’m all over this total to go under. Atlanta has scored 12 in PHI and 17 at PIT. Similar situation here. ATL is not the same team on the road. ATLs home statistics inflate the betting totals. But they don’t produce the same number outdoors.
Me: I agree — and based on tight races in respective divisions for both teams, look for more of the same. WAS has played 6 of 7 games this season under the number. Total seems a bit high.
GAME TOTAL: Baltimore/ Pittsburgh Under 47.5 (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300
Ben: I like BAL -2 a little and under 47.5 a lot. PIT is in almost a must-win situation here. BAL has jarring home versus away split. Should be a standard AFC North slugfest. First meeting went 23-14.
Me: Agree these games usually play tight and come down to field position and turnovers. PIT-BAL game almost never turn into shootouts. Nice to catch the win on 47. I’ll go along with a close, low-scoring game won by a late field goal.
GAME LINE: Buffalo +10 vs. Chicago (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300
Ben: No chance I lay double digits on the road after CHI performances in ARZ and MIA. They seem to be a team to ride at home, but fade on the road. QB Trubisky still is young an erratic on the road.
Me: Massive public overreaction here to BUF miserable offensive performance last week versus rival NWE. But home again for a second-straight week and humiliated previously, BUF has to look at this is a redemption game. CHI simply doesn’t merit laying -10 on the road to anyone, despite their successful season. BUF defense did play very well last week, which gets lost in the reflection about the score, somewhat misleading. BUF QB situation is a clusterfuck. But I’ll ride the home team to play with pride and the defense to keep this within the margin.
GAME LINE: New Orleans +2 vs. LA Rams (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300
Ben: I don’t give a damn how good the Rams are, no one can lay -2 in the Superdome in a big game. Saints are a completely different team here in Louisiana. Key injury is in LAR defensive secondary, since Talib is out. That should give Brees some open targets. This is a sucker bet to play the favorite.
Me: Ben is a Saints-loving homer, but he’s correct. New Orleans is playing as well as any NFL team at the moment, and come off two very impressive road wins. LA Rams are due (I hate that word) for a letdown, and given they did struggle at times on the road this year, I think the live dog Saints are worth a wager.
MY WAGERS ON NFL SEASON WIN TOTALS:
Arizona Cardinals OVER 5.5 wins -180 — Wagering $450 to win $250 2-6
Buffalo Bills OVER 6 wins EVEN — Wagering $400 to win $400 2-6
Cincinnati Bengals OVER 6.5 wins -170 — Wagering $680 to win $400 5-3
Dallas Cowboys UNDER 8.5 wins +110 — Wagering $500 to win $550 3-4
Detroit Lions UNDER 7.5 wins EVEN — Risking $400 to win $400 3-4
Houston Texans UNDER 8.5 wins +120 — Risking $400 to win $480 5-3
Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 9 wins -145 — Risking $725 to win $500 3-5
Indianapolis Colts UNDER 6.5 wins +170 — Risking $400 to win $680 3-5
New Orleans Saints OVER 9.5 wins -145 — Risking $725 to win $500 7-1
Seattle Seahawks UNDER 8 wins (Best Bet) -150 — Risking $1,500 to win $750 4-3