Pages Menu
TwitterFacebooklogin
Categories Menu

Posted by on Oct 31, 2015 in Blog, Essays | 2 comments

NFL Week 8: Picks and Predictions

 

Green Bay Packers coach Vince Lombardi is carried off Lambeau Field on the shoulders of fullback Jimmy Taylor, left, and Paul Hornung after winning the NFL championship from the Cleveland Browns 23-12 in Green Bay, Wis., on Jan. 2, 1966. (AP Photo)

 

NOLAN DALLA — 2015 NFL SEASON RECORD

39 WINS – 34 LOSSES — 2 PUSHES

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $10,667.

NET GAIN/LOSS:  + $667.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  5 – 4 – 1

LAST WEEK:  16 — 8 — 0 (+$1,440)

 

This week, I’m posting a “modified” teaser wheel.  What this means is, one anchor team gets chosen and then is wheeled with many other teams.  However, I’m tossing out the bad number situations, and ill-advised teasers across the zero (pick).  So, I’m not teasing the entire board, just the situations that I think are favorable.

Regarding criticism of this strategy, I’m the first to acknowledge that teasers aren’t as appealing as several years ago when the games were lower scoring and more balanced.  The league instituted rule changes which now hinder defenses (especially pass defense) and allow offenses to pretty much get away with anything.  This has created higher-scoring games and more variance, which in turn has reduced the advantages that teasers once provided.  Some even insist that teasers shouldn’t be played at all, given that 6 points (the typical teaser margin) is no longer enough points to make them viable.

Nonetheless, I’m still convinced that teasing superior teams down to the prospect of “just win the game” remains worthy of consideration in some spots.  This week’s Tampa Bay-Atlanta matchup appears to be just such a situation, with one team coming off a demoralizing road loss and traveling again, versus a 6-1 team at home that hasn’t played well the last two weeks, but should be motivated here.

Here’s more on why I’ve picked ATL in the teaser wheel:

This play has everything to do with motivation and the mental part of the game.  TAM should be demoralized after blowing a 24-0 lead last week at WASH, not to mention a late lead when Kurt Cousins, of all QBs, somehow managed to drive his team the length of the field in the closing minute for the win.  Very tough situation for a young, poorly coached team with a rookie QB who has been shaky at best to go on the road for a second straight week, onto a changing surface in a dome, and matchup well with a division opponent who’s 6-1 straight up.  Moreover, ATL has not played well the last two games, both on the road — losing at NOR and looking lackluster at TENN in previous week.  Talk in ATL is the offense needs to play much better, and that should be the focus here as the home favorite uses this game to put up points versus a bad defense with some vulnerabilities in the secondary.  Some concern about health of ATL wideouts, starting a rookie on one side.  But so long as WR J. Jones is on the field, ATL capable of scoring on any play.  Last year in a similar spot, ATL massacred TB 56-14.  They swept the series, winning by 10 on road at TAM, as well.  ATL seems to have this opponent in control, and playing back at home where they’ve scored 25, 26, and 48 points respectively, they should get the win.  ATL ranks 4th in points scored and 5th in total yards.  Numerically, laying -7 could be justified, but I’ll go with the more likely prospect that ATL “just wins the game” laying -1 with the teaser.  I’ll take the veteran team, motivated, against an opponent that should be hungover by that devastating loss last week. 

 

Here’s more on why I’ve picked BALT on the teaser against the key number concept, and also included the Ravens on two Best Bets of the week:

This is more of a fade SDI play than a wager on BALT.  Chargers appear to have fallen apart, playing poorly on both sides of the ball, devastated by injuries and distracted by all the talk of a pending move to Los Angeles.  OAK destroyed SDI last week in an embarrassing divisional loss, effectively ending the Chargers’ season, and it’s hard to foresee how SDI travels East for an early game and plays with any fire.  SDI has no rushing game, a bad offensive line, and only one real strength which is the passing game (which has largely padded the stats in garbage time when SDI was hopelessly behind against prevent defenses — I’m not sold on those numbers).  Meanwhile, we saw that BALT remains a fighting team last week, and there’s likely to be no giving up on a Harbaugh-coached team.  BALT has yet to play a solid game at home, but this appears to be the spot for them to finally win a game.  Even the losses have been close, as BALT has played every game to the wire, despite a 1-6 record.  Sometimes, the records of teams need to be dismissed and I think we should apply that here, as we have a home team that’s desperate for a win, is reasonably healthy, playing an opponent which might have mailed it in for the season if that OAK game last week is any indication.  

 

Weekly Action:  17 wagers, including 2 Best Bets.

 

THIS WEEK’S BETS (lines current as of Saturday, 9 am PST):

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ATL -1 with NWE -2     — Wagering $330 to win $300 [Posted Thursday on Facebook]

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ATL -1 with DET +9.5     — Wagering $220 to win $200

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ATL -1 with CHI +7.5     — Wagering $220 to win $200

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ATL -1 with NYG +9.5     — Wagering $220 to win $200

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ATL -1 with SFO +14.5     — Wagering $220 to win $200

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ATL -1 with STL -2.5     — Wagering $220 to win $200

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ATL -1 with ARZ (pick)    — Wagering $220 to win $200

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ATL -1 with CLEV +12     — Wagering $220 to win $200

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ATL -1 with PITT +7     — Wagering $220 to win $200

BEST BET:  2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ATL -1 with BALT +2.5     — Wagering $330 to win $300

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ATL -1 with TENN +9.5     — Wagering $220 to win $200

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ATL -1 with OAK +8.5    — Wagering $220 to win $200

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ATL -1 with DAL +11     — Wagering $220 to win $200

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ATL -1 with DEN +8.5    — Wagering $220 to win $200

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ATL -1 with INDY +13    — Wagering $220 to win $200

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ATL -1 with CAR -1    — Wagering $220 to win $200

BEST BET:  BALT -3 vs. SDI (buy to -3 laying -130)     — Wagering $650 to win $500

 

SCORE PREDICTIONS:

NWE 37     MIA 7

KC 27     DET 23

CHI 30     MINN 23

ATL 31     TB 17

NOR 30     NYG 27

STL 20     SFO 17

ARZ 34     CLEV 20

PITT 27     CINCY 24

BALT 34     SDI 14

TENN 20     HOU 19

OAK 24     NYJ 23

SEA 23     DAL 20

DEN 24     GB 20

CAR 27     INDY 17

 

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:      [16-6…..$3,200 in wins…..$1,760 in losses]

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with BUF +1.5    — Wagering $220 to win $200          LOST

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with JAX +10.5   — Wagering $220 to win $200          WON

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with CLEVE +12.5     — Wagering $220 to win $200          LOST

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with STL -.5    — Wagering $220 to win $200          WON

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with PITT +9     — Wagering $220 to win $200         LOST

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with KC +3    — Wagering $220 to win $200         WON

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with HOU +11    — Wagering $220 to win $200          LOST

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with MIA +1    — Wagering $220 to win $200          WON

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with NYJ +13.5    — Wagering $220 to win $200          WON

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with NWE -1.5    — Wagering $220 to win $200          WON

BEST BET:  2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with MINN +4.5   — Wagering $220 to win $200          WON

BEST BET:  2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with DET +7.5    — Wagering $220 to win $200           LOST

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with ATL PK    — Wagering $220 to win $200          WON

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with TENN +12    — Wagering $220 to win $200          WON

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with TBAY +9    — Wagering $220 to win $200          WON

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with WASH +3    — Wagering $220 to win $200          WON

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with NOR +10     — Wagering $220 to win $200          WON

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with INDY +2    — Wagering $220 to win $200          LOST

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with OAK +10     — Wagering $220 to win $200          WON

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with SDI +2    — Wagering $220 to win $200          LOST

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with DAL +9.5    — Wagering $220 to win $200          WON

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with NYG +2.5    — Wagering $220 to win $200          WON

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with CAR +3    — Wagering $220 to win $200          WON

2-Team/6-Point Teaser:  ARZ -1.5 with PHIL +9    — Wagering $220 to win $200          LOST

 

SEASON WIN TOTALS  — WAGERS

Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 8.5 (+115) — wagering $2,000 to win $2,300    4-3

Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 9.5 (-110) — wagering $1,050 to win $1,000   3-4

NY Jets UNDER 7.5 (-120 /-135) — wagering $1,275 to win $1,000     5-2

Tennessee Titans OVER 5.5 (-150) — wagering $450 to win $300     1-6

Cleveland Browns UNDER 6.5 (-170) — wagering $510 to win $300     2-5

 

2 Comments

  1. Preposterous analysis of SD Passing game (Raider game was the only stat stuffer) but the pick is probably right regardless

    • Nolan Replies: If you think the analysis of the San Diego passing game was “preposterous,” what does that indicate about my Atlanta pick?

      🙂

      — ND

Post a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

css.php