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Posted by on Oct 20, 2018 in Blog, Essays | 2 comments

NFL Week #7

 

 

Personal Note:  I was out of town all of last week visiting family in Dallas and therefore couldn’t dedicate enough time to handicapping the games to make my usual weekly post.  No one died.  I ate well.  The season-to-date record has been updated with results from the previous week and now we’re on to NFL Week #7 with a vengence.

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2018 NFL REGULAR SEASON RESULTS

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BALANCE:  $6,725. [- $3.375.]

OVERALL W-L RECORD:  18 wins / 21 loses / 1 pushes

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LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:  

No results from last week.  However, my experiment betting all the OVERs has produced a small profit over the previous two weeks.  Since I touted betting OVERs across the board, these totals have gone 18 OVERs and 15 UNDERs (including Thursday night’s results), for a marginal win of +1.5 units.  I’ll take it.

 

THIS WEEK’S PICKS:  (Note:  All lines are taken from Westgate Las Vegas as of Saturday afternoon):

 

[Game Line] Tennessee +6.5 vs. LA Chargers (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200

[First Half] Tennessee +4 vs. LA Chargers (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300

Notes:  TEN has looked fucking awful in recent weeks, especially on offense.  Given some urgency with this game after two miserable performances, I see 3-3 TEN making some serious adjustments and bouncing back into contention for this contest, played in neutral London.  TEN is usually a team to fade on the road, especially with garbage man QB Mariota (bust!).  But given the uncertainties of the neutral site, plus travel (much worse for LAC — an extra 3 time zones and a leg cramp away), TEN should be more competitive than they’ve shown in recent weeks.  Keep in mind, TEN has beaten some very good competition, including HOU, PHIL, and JAX and has faced a tough schedule.  Also, credit the TEN defense, allowing a stingy average of just 17 PPG, which is surely encouraging when taking points.  Meanwhile, LAC has faced a soft schedule against shit teams, their last three wins against SFO, OAK, and CLE.  This is also a second straight travel game for LAC, whereas TEN was home last week.  LAC offense looks terrific, but they haven’t faced a decent defense yet, except LAR (a loss).  I see a closer game than the points indicate and therefore will make plays on the 1H (+4 is available in some places) and the game, which is now +6.5 (it opened at +7).  TEN games averaging lowest point total in NFL right now, at just 32 PPG, which I think bids as a positive for taking generous amounts of points.

 

[Game Line] Miami +3 vs. Detroit (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300

[First Half] Miami +1.5 vs. Detroit (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200

Notes:  Since when does DET (the Lions!) deserve to be laying points on the road!  Yes, MIA loses it’s starting QB to injury, and there’s not much public support for backup Brock Osweiler, but this isn’t a dropoff that should swing a game line by this many points.  It’s not like MIA lost Roger Staubach.  MIA is probably close to the same team in power rankings.  Meanwhile, wildly inconsistent DET has played well in two home games but hasn’t performed nearly as well away from Ford Stadium, going 0-2 ATS and SU.  Now, they are laying points (LAYING POINTS!) to a 4-2 team with the only losses on the road at CIN and NWE?  MIA is 3-0 ATS and SU at home, and getting a FG (+3) and points in the 1H, I’m backing the home dog, which has performed as a consistently profitable wager this season.

 

[6-pt Teaser]  Indianapolis -1 vs. Buffalo / Washington +7.5 vs. Dallas (-120) — Risking $600 to win $500

[Game Line]  Indianapolis -7 vs. Buffalo (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300

[Game Line]  Washington +1.5 vs. Dallas (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300

[First Half]  Washington +.5 vs. Dallas (-120) — Risking $220 to win $200 

Notes:  Lots to cover here, so let’s break this down as follows:

IND/BUF — If I’ve ever laid a touchdown with a 1-5 team, I don’t remember it.  But I’m doing exactly that this week as INDY looks to be primed for an ass-kicking blowout.  Look at INDY’s six-game results.  They’ve played nothing but close, competitive high-scoring games.  Now back at home, facing an offense that’s about as inept as there is, look for INDY to put on a show.  BUF starts QB Peterman again, who gets the nod because of injury to the starter.  He was yanked after a half of football earlier in the season and currently has one of the lowest passing ratings of any NFL starting QB in history.  I’ve banged my head against the wall looking for a reason go the contrarian route but watching Peterman take snaps is downright painful.  Indy Pro Bowler and prolific thrower Luck should have a field day, especially with WR Hill back healthy, and desperately needs a win for head coach Frank Reich.  I think the Colts get it here at home — big time.  So, I’m laying a touchdown and also teasing this down to -1 across all the key numbers.

DAL/WAS — DAL has 3 wins, all at home, and 3 losses, all on the road.  So, why in the hell is DAL favored in the road?  Give me the points.  A gift.  DAL played its best game last week in a rout of JAX, but that was a terrible spot for visitor and now DAL must go on the highway against rival and lay chalk, despite being one of the bottom rung passing offenses.  Certainly, DAL will rely on the running game #1 in the NFL and a defense playing above expectations.  But DAL has really struggled badly road games so far, and I’m counting on WAS, which has defeated GB and CAR at home to be just as formidable versus DAL.  A week ago, there was talk DAL was going to fire the coach at some point (clueless clapper Jason Garrett), and now after whopping JAX, DAL is favored on the road?  I love fading this overreaction.  This makes no sense, at all.  There are some +1.5 lines locally, so give me the teaser, plus WAS in the game and getting a half point in the 1H.  By the way, DAL games are averaging just 36 PPG, so this makes the 6-pt teaser having considerably more value with a home dog in what’s expected to be a low-scoring game.  Wong teaser in play here.

 

[Moneyline]  Minnesota -180 vs. NY Jets (-110) — Risking $1,800 to win $1,000

Notes:   I’m made this my largest bet of the season (in reality).  MIN defense should shut down NYJ offense, which has looked sporadically great, but also awful in inopportune spots — and now faces a defense the likes of which this rookie QB has not faced.  This is a terrible situation for NYJ, which I have historically backed at home.  Recall, I’ve made money betting the NJY over past three seasons.  But they are badly outcoached here and have the unusual situation of being a fat and happy home team playing their third straight in NJ, coming off two impressive wins.  I think those wins actually make MIN more compelled to not take this opponent lightly.  In an NFC North division that’s wide open, MIN can’t take anyone for granted.  There’s also Mike Zimmer’s road record, which is the best of any NFL coach.  MIN has faced GB, LAR, and PHI on the road so far — this is a huge drop down in class.  Look for MIN to take care of business.  I wagered on this early at -3, but can’t lay -3.5 now (current line), so instead let’s put up the first moneyline play of the season.

 

[Game Line]  Cincinnati +6 vs. Kansas City (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300

[Moneyline]  Cincinnati +220 vs. Kansas City — Risking $200 to win $440

Notes:  Bettors have a tendency to react to what they’ve seen lately.  And that usually shades the lines.  I’ve been as impressed as anyone with the astounding performance of KC’s young QB.  But every starter occasionally plays a subpar game.  I think this might be the down spot for KC, which is 5-1 and laying -6 points to a surprisingly good CIN team, also in first place with a 4-2 record (recall, I predicted CIN would be a playoff team, this season).  Yes, I do have serious concerns about the CIN defense being able to contain high-octane KC.  But KC also has plenty of defensive problems of its own.  I can’t pass on taking this number, which at most should be +4.5.  QB Dalton does perform well against porous defenses and KC has one of the NFL’s worst.  It remains to be seen if KC can outscore CIN in this Sunday Night contest, but with so many question marks, volatility, plus an experienced team (CIN) coming off a tough loss with no margin for error, I think the Bengals keep this close enough to get the cover, if not the outright win.  For this reason, I’m also sprinkling a little sugar on the nig moneyline underdog Bengals.

 

[Moneyline]  Jacksonville -220 vs. Houston — Risking $440 to win $200

Notes:   JAX played two horrible road games and now returns home for what should be a statement “fuck you” game.”  JAX has looked terrible but now gets the perfect opponent — mediocre HOU coming off a sloppy home win with a banged-up offensive line that is playing like shit.  HOU QB has regressed, is getting pressure, and makes lots of bad decisions.  JAX, mad as shit after a 5-TD loss to the Cowboys, should throttle this Texans team, which hasn’t looked good all season, despite their misleading 3-3 record.  JAX offense has played poorly in recent weeks, but this appears to be the game where the Jaguars begin to show why they’re a serious Super Bowl contender.  Aside from NWE, HOU hasn’t played any opponent with a winning record.  JAX will be in a sour mood and will take it out on the Texans.  I don’t like laying nearly a touchdown with a team with some offensive question marks (Bortles!), but will gladly fork over slightly better than 2-1 on the prospect the Jaguars are a better team than the Texans, especially on their home turf.

 

[Game Total]  Atlanta / NY Giants OVER 52 (-110) — Laying $550 to win $500

Notes:  I initially wanted no part of the NYG at ATL game on MNF.  These are the kinds of games that break many bettors.  Both teams have lots of problems — NYG with confidence and continuity, and ATL with injuries.  ATL laying -4 seems about right as the number, though it’s tempting to lay points with the favorite.  Trouble is — ATL defense in shambles could be lit up here.  Frightening to look at what ATL is surrendering in overall yardage.  OVER 52 is probably the play if you must bet this……ATL coming off 5 straight OVERs, combined with the fact the Giants can’t stop anybody — three straight opponents have scored 30+.  We have two experienced QBs, a dome game on the shit rubber grass, a night game in primetime, two outstanding wideouts, and two desperate teams,  Seems like an obvious OVER play here.  I’m laying coin the OVER cashes.  Night game OVERs in the NFL have been money, this season.

 

OTHER GAMES:

I’m skipping the NWE at CHI matchup since the line value has vanished.  The game opened up at NWE -3, but then dropped to -1.5 with the news TE Gronkowski is out.  CHI is a popular pick as a very live dog.  However, I’m not all that impressed with CHI’s performance, especially in what amounts to a serious step up in class here.  Other than blowing out TB, CHI has played four tight other games, costing themselves two possible wins because of poor coaching.  In crunch time, NWE might be a bargain in this spot laying such a light price — which goes contrary to many solid handicappers’ pick on the Bears.  Oddly enough, I’d probably play CHI at +3, but now kinda’ like NWE laying this number the more I think about this matchup.  Lots of srious bettors have this one wrong and pare getting too cute with home dogs.  Beware.

CLE at TAM looks like the dogshit bowl of the week.  I bet this one early as an OVER at 49 and it’s since rocketed to 52.  TAM games are averaging 65 PPG (highest in the NFL).  CLE should be in a bounce-back mode after a dismal showing at home against LAC last week.  QB Mayfield showed he can score points on the road, evidenced by torching OAK’s defense in his first road start.  Similiar soft defense here.  Look for both teams to produce points.  Tempting to tout the OVER 52 also, but all the value is now gone, so this is a pass.  IMPORTANT — Look to bet this game OVER in the 2H (early projection 26.5), as I think things could get wild.

Initially, when I saw this number, I wanted to take CAR +5.5 at PHIL, but they’ve been overachievers at home and not so good on the road.  Tempting as it is to take the points, I have a suspicion the PHIL win at NYG could have been a turning point and now the Eagles may fly.  PHIL with ten days to prepare for this home game isn’t something I want to fade.  So, this is a pass.  Betting the OVER 44.5 looks to have some value.

NOR lined at +2.5 playing at BAL seems like the ideal Wong Teaser situation.  However, there’s way too much volatility in NOR games.  Plus NOR plays a second straight roadie, never a good thing for a finesse offense.  I’m not sold on BAL, but they sure looked solid at TEN last week humiliating Titans 21-0.  Apparently, this defense is for real.  No way I can play either team, but betting UNDER this high total at 49.5 does appear to have some value.

LAR are laying -9.5 at SFO.  I want no part of this game.  I will never lay that kind of number in a divisional road game.  That’s suicide.  But I can’t bet the 49ers either, especially coming off the short week, a MNF loss where the coach blew it.  Pass.

 

MY WAGERS ON NFL SEASON WIN TOTALS:

Arizona Cardinals OVER 5.5 wins -180 — Wagering $450 to win $250   1-5

Buffalo Bills OVER 6 wins EVEN — Wagering $400 to win $400   2-4

Cincinnati Bengals OVER 6.5 wins -170 — Wagering $680 to win $400   4-2

Dallas Cowboys UNDER 8.5 wins +110 — Wagering $500 to win $550   3-3

Detroit Lions UNDER 7.5 wins EVEN — Risking $400 to win $400   3-3

Houston Texans UNDER 8.5 wins +120 — Risking $400 to win $480   3-3

Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 9 wins -145 — Risking $725 to win $500   3-3

Indianapolis Colts UNDER 6.5 wins +170 — Risking $400 to win $680   1-5

New Orleans Saints OVER 9.5 wins -145 — Risking $725 to win $500    5-1

Seattle Seahawks UNDER 8 wins (Best Bet) -150 — Risking $1,500 to win $750  3-3

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2 Comments

  1. Your Seahawks RSW bet is listed wrong somehow. Guessing it’s 1500/1000 rather than a -200 bet.

  2. Congratulations for last week. Minnesota fell into place perfectly. I have no way ( here in Australia ) of betting the “Teaser” bets. Pity as your 6 point one also did well.

    As always wating Sunday night early Monday morning to “get on”

    I’m sure you don’t remeber me from 2006 WSOP when you frequently drove me to where I waS staying. now 61yo aussie.

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