NFL Plays — Week 5

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED SEASON RECORD

28 WINS – 21 LOSSES – 0 PUSHES —– (+ 14.8 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $11,480.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  2-1-0

Very solid results last week going 7-3 with the posted plays…..but should have made considerably more profit…..poor money management on what should have been a huge core.  I’ll still take a 60 percent winning percentage and a +14 percent gain of bankroll, any month.

Tougher card that normal, this week.  Going light with just four plays.  Wagering $1,750 this week.

Note:  All wagers are for amusement-purposes only.  I bear no responsibility for those who may decide to follow my plays.

LAST WEEK’S POSTED PICKS:

1Q — ST. LOUIS +.5 (-140) — 4 units — LOST

1Q — MIAMI +5 -110) — 2 units — WON

1Q — WASHINGTON +.5 (-145) — 2 units — WON

1Q — NY GIANTS +.5 (-145) — 4 units — WON

TOTAL — SEATTLE/ST. LOUIS OVER 39 — 3 units — LOST

TOTAL — ARIZONA/MIAMI OVER 39 — 3 units — WON

TOTAL — DENVER/OAKLAND UNDER 48.5 — 3 units — WON

TOTAL — DALLAS/CHICAGO OVER 42 — 4 units (MNF) — WON

GAME — DETROIT -4 — 5 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — LOST

TEASER — MIAMI +13.5 / NY GIANTS +8.5 — 4 units — WON

WEEK 5 PLAYS

1st QUARTER — WASHINGTON + .5 (-130) for 3 units

Redskins are perfect 4-0 in first quarter and still getting points at home…..Falcons admittedly hottest team in NFC right now, but I’ll fade them on road versus team playing with lots of confidence, and certainly capable of keeping pace with any offense

1st QUARTER — BUFFALO +3 (-120) for 3 units

I’ll bite on a decent offense getting +3…..this is a tough matchup to line, as game is SFO -9.5…..seems number should be +3 at -140.  SFO defense clearly for real, but I’m still not sold on SFO offense and laying a number like this.

GAME — CINCINNATI -3 (-120) for 4 units

Bengals at home in good spot versus 1-3 Dolphins who have lost two straight close games….bad situation for Miami with last week’s game in Pheonix followed by another road game…..lying -3 a reasonable number whch should probably be higher.  After two valiant efforts, I’m not sure Dolphins will be able to rise to the occasion of another tough road game

TWO-TEAM 6-POINT TEASER:  GREEN BAY -1 / NY GIANTS -1.5 (-110) for 5 units  <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>

Packers play at INDY, laying a touchdown…..rather than laying the -7, better value is to tease….fading potential Colts emotional lift from Coach Pagano’s diagnosis  / Like Giants in good spot at home versus Browns…..two different teams in class here