NFL Week 5: Picks and Predictions

NOLAN DALLA — 2015 NFL SEASON RECORD

20 WINS – 16 LOSSES — 1 PUSHES

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $12,322.

NET GAIN/LOSS:  + $2,322. 

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  4 – 2 – 0

LAST WEEK:  4 — 3 — 0 (+720)

Eight wagers this week, with about $3,000 in betting action.  Here are my plays and thoughts for each game….

THIS WEEK’S BETS (lines current as of Saturday, 11 pm PST):

BEST BET:  Cincinnati – 3 vs. Seattle (-110) — Risking $550 to win $500          …..This looks to be a statement game for CINCY which has topped a pretty solid lineup of opponents this season en route to a perfect 4-0 start.  At home, playing with lots of confidence, versus a respected opponent, I expect CINCY to take care of business here, especially given the struggles we’ve seen from SEA all season.  The offensive line looks to be in shambles, QB Wilson gets happy feet under pressure and doesn’t protect the ball well (two senseless fumbles last week), and SEA also doesn’t seem to be nearly the defensive force on the road versus at home (even so, I’m throwing out both home wins, one against Jimmy Claussen starting for CHI and the other on MNF last week versus a hapless DET team that is torturous to watch).  This line does not accurately reflect where both of these teams are at the moment.  It’s essentially telling us they are equal in talent.  That’s simply not the case as poorly as the SEA OL has looked combined with their failure to beat a quality opponent.  Laying -3 looks to be a bargain, particularly fading a overrated team right now, off a MNF win on a short week, flying East, and playing on changing surface (natural grass).  Like CINCY here as the best bet of the week.   

First Half:  Buffalo / Tennessee OVER 21 (-115) — Risking $460 to win $400          …..Both teams have shattered this low projection, previously either scoring or allowing more than average first-half points in each game this season (low 1H score from 7 combined games was 21 points — with 30 points scored on average).  TENN has extra prep time, which should help QB Mariota.  Off a bad offensive performance last week, BUFF should be in a better spot here, versus inexperienced defense.  I look for the scoring to continue here as we catch the lowest 1H total on the board, a number based solely on BUFF’s (supposedly) excellent defense.  Jury still out on that.  Looking for points here in the first two quarters.  

Washington +7 at Atlanta (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200          …..WASH (2-2 SU) is at .500 coming off a huge division win, which normally might be a good fade in the following game.  However, one has to really like what the WASH defense is doing, which has held three of four opponents to sub-par performances and is among the top five in the league.  WASH running game is also emerging (ranked first in the NFL at 154 ypg), and gets to go up against a porous defense (ranked 27th in yardage allowed).  This game with a high flying home favorite (ATL) reminds me of the ARZ situation last week, where the whole world was on the Cardinals and the hungrier Rams came in and won outright.  ATL offense has looked unstoppable in all four games, but teams on a roll are sometimes good fades and this appears to be a good situation for the visitor, catching the TD.  Obviously, we have to get the full +7 for this to be a wager.  Interesting Stat:  Teams that are 4-0 and laying a TD or more in their next game are just 13-22-1 ATS in that spot since 1978.  [Play was downgraded due to injury reports involving WASH corners, which are now suspect….I still think there’s some value taking the points with the dog, but this is not as strong a play without DeAngelo Hall and Chris Culliver in the lineup].

Jacksonville +3 at Tampa Bay (-115) — Risking $460 to win $400

First Half — Jacksonville +1.5 (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300          ……Two struggling 1-3 teams face off.  JAX is getting a field goal, even though they’ve been the more consistent team this season.  JAX comes off a hugely disappointing loss at INDY, in a game they continued to show defensive improvement.  Toss out the (at) NWE blowout two weeks ago, and JAX defense has held all three opponents to 20 points or less, and this week they face their softest opponent, by far, with severe offensive limitations.  I fail to see how a team which has lost 11 straight at home is laying points, especially a FG.  That’s certainly enough of an inventive to take the dog.  Some valid concerns that this is third straight road contest for JAX, and that would normally keep me off them as a bet.  However, since JAX’s opponents this year are a combined 12-5, this shapes up to be their easiest foe.  JAX has also won four straight in this series.  JAX is also 5-0 ATS last five games off a SU loss.  I don’t know how you can’t pull the trigger and take the points in this game that should be low scoring, which will probably be decided by a late FG. 

New Orleans +6 at Philadelphia (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300     

First Half — New Orleans +3.5 (-115) — Risking $345 to win $300          …..Two of the NFC’s most disappointing teams at 1-3 SU face off in what’s a must-win for both.  NOR has been a great fade this season, but looks to be the right side here, which is really more of an anti-PHI play.  First, NOR did play close games in both previous roadies this season (at ARZ and CAR), and gets what’s probably a softer opponent here.  PHI remains a quagmire, especially on offense that ranks 25th in passing and 28th in rushing.  Even a bad NOR defense should be able to contain that non threat, especially given the massive injuries along the lines, especially along the OL ( no wonder PHI can’t run the ball).  LT Peters didn’t practice at all this week, and RT Johnson and G Barbre are also listed as unclear.  Coming into the season, PHI had already lost Gardner and Molk, and now they’re really thin.  Defensively, PHI has issues as well.  Then, there’s the kicking game which has been a problem for PHI.  Under these circumstances, I’m not sure how we can back PHI laying -6, especially since NOR is at least as good a team on paper.  We keep hearing about the ideal week for a so-called breakout game from QB Bradford.  But come to think of it — has Sam Bradford ever fucking had a “breakout game?”  Grab the points, even though NOR is a frightful team to back given their glaring weaknesses on the OL and defense.

Oakland +4 vs. Denver (110) — Risking $330 to win $300          …..I have to grab the home divisional dog here, which seems perfectly primed to pull off the upset.  DEN has been winning ugly, and at 4-0 SU certainly deserves to be the favorite.  However, I would line this game at -3.  Getting +4 with an offense that seems to be showing more consistency each week and playing what is probably the biggest home game for OAK in the past decade appears to be the right side.  QB Carr is maturing with each game, while lingering concerns remain about QB Manning’s velocity and durability.  Both Manning interceptions last week were horrible throws, which I don’t think he would have made 2-3 years ago.  Something is off.  Surely, OAK has major defensive issues, and that’s certainly a concern.  But this just looks to be one of those games where you can dismiss that stats and expect something along the lines of a classic rivalry to re-emerge.  I’m taking the points with OAK which is headed in the right direction for the first time in 13 years.  [I’d also advise adding some sugar on OAK moneyline currently at +177] 

OTHER THOUGHTS:

— TENN is a tempting play at home coming in with the extra rest versus BUFF, off their worst game of the season.  Lean OVER in the game, as well.  BUFF has been a terrible favorite, going just 2-8 ATS last ten times in that spot.

— CLE at BALT would normally be an automatic play on the dog at +6 in a divisional contest between two struggling teams.  However, CLE playing second road game here and facing a better rested BALT team with some urgency coming off huge win that may have saved their season.  CLE has also lost its last ten road games by and average of 11 ppg, which tells me this team gives up when the fall behind on the road.  No way I can play CLE in this spot, but BALT struggles too much on offense for me to lay the -6.  Have yet to see BALT put together a solid performance in four games, so can’t see them as this big a favorite.

— CHI at KC is a game of two pigs, both at 1-3 SU.  Lots of clashing data here, especially cluster injuries to both offensive lines.  No consistency at QB for either team, even if interception-prone Cutler plays the entire game free of injury, and Smith for the Chiefs not exactly with a history of taking advantage of suspect defenses.  Lean to the UNDER based on something key here that sometimes isn’t recorded in stats.  When teams get involved in blowouts, lots of cheap yards and points get recorded, which skews the numbers on offensive production.  I’m looking for a much closer game perhaps than the line indicates at -9, which should also go UNDER.  Very tempting to take CHI plus all those points, especially given that KC has surrendered 30+ in three straight games (one reason why I’m not playing the UNDER),  But CHI has been a horrid road team, losing five straight in that spot, and also has a tendency to quit once they fall behind by any significant margin.  A CHI win outright would not shock me, and neither would a 30-point win by KC.  Stay away.  Interesting Notes:  KC has covered 6 of last 8 at home, but is a horrendous 9-22-1 in the role of a home favorite last four seasons.

— Looking closely at the OVER in the STL-GB game, thinking this could turn into a track meet, especially if GB builds a lead and forces STL into lots of throws.  At 45, this is a reasonable number for GB to eclipse by themselves anytime they’re at home.  I’ll likely pass, but that would be my lean in this game.  Can’t bet STL which does not perform well after a win.  STL just 3-7 ATS the following week in last ten such situations under HC Fisher.

— Lots of suckers will be tempted to play ARZ laying a small number -3 to DET, which is one of the league’s worst coached, most under performing teams.  However, I just have a strange suspicion about this game that’s it’s all set up as the trap upset of the week.  I can’t substantiate it with any data, but we just tend to see games like this where the better team plays sloppy and the desperate home foe comes up big when you least expect it.  DET is just 2-6 last last eight games overall and 1-4 against teams with a winning record in that span.  No play here.

— Impossible to bet DAL right now, which is off two ridiculous losses, mostly due to a collapsing defense.  That’s supposed to be solved this week as the DAL defense gets back some key players.  But we have yet to see the entire unit perform well, and now they face the NFL”s best offense that’s been on a tear since Week 1.  I would need +10 to take DAL, and line sits on +9 right now.  Can’t touch the total which is 49.5 and just a bit high for my tastes given that backup QB Wedeen struggles in second halves.  Contrarians will be all over DAL and the points, but I’ll pass.  Key Trends:  Mighty NWE is just 1-4-1 ATS off bye week last six seasons, plus the fat and happy fade rule applies to NWE which comes off a 30-point win with 10+ days rest — teams in that spot just 1-9 ATS last ten situations.  However, DAL is a dreadful 1-6 ATS last seven games at home.  Too much contradiction for my tastes.

— NYG hosting SFO is a matchup of two teams headed in opposite directions.  NYG have looked better each game, and have been competitive in all four.  Meanwhile, after a strong start, SFO has regressed to the point where they’re now one of the NFL’s worst team, startng with voids everywhere and a bad QB that will probably be benched by season’s end.  However, I can’t quite lay the -7 with the home favorite, because NYG have absolutely sucked in that roll the last few years.  UNDER could be worth a look.  Key Stat:  SFO is the NFL’s coldest team ATS at the moment, with just one cover in their last ten regular season games.  Looking for Kaepernick jerseys at the discount Dollar Store any day now.

— PITT +4 will gets lots of money late, so bet it now (I expect line to drop to +3.5).  SDI is riddled with injuries at the moment, and will struggle to field a front five.  No confidence is backup Vick who’s clearly lost a step and has his best years behind him.  Vick also looked as if he was struggling with the system despite having a full week to prepare.  But I can’t fade that with SDI is such a bad state right now, even at home on MNF.  No opinion on the total, although a lean UNDER looks to be worth considering based on what we’ve seen from PITT defense that last two weeks, combined with doubts that Vick can get the ball enough to the wideouts.  QB Rivers 5-2 ATS on MNF.

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:

BEST BET:  Jacksonville / Indianapolis UNDER (-110) — $550 to win $500          …..WON  *[closed at 43.5 and still went UNDER]

Carolina -3 at Tampa Bay (-110) — $330 to win $300          …..WON

Houston / Atlanta UNDER 47 (-110) — $220 to win $200          ……LOST

FIRST HALF:  Houston +3.5 (-115) — $230 to win $200         …..LOST

NY Giants +5.5 at Buffalo (-110) — $440 to win $400          …..WON

FIRST HALF:  NY Giants +3.5 (-120) — $360 to win $300          …..WON

Denver -7 vs. Minnesota (-110) — $330 to win $300          …..LOST

SEASON WIN TOTALS  — WAGERS

Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 8.5 (+115) — wagering $2,000 to win $2,300    2-2

Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 9.5 (-110) — wagering $1,050 to win $1,000   1-3

NY Jets UNDER 7.5 (-120 /-135) — wagering $1,275 to win $1,000     3-1

Tennessee Titans OVER 5.5 (-150) — wagering $450 to win $300     1-2

Cleveland Browns UNDER 6.5 (-170) — wagering $510 to win $300     1-3