NFL Week 4: Picks and Predictions
NOLAN DALLA — 2015 NFL SEASON RECORD
16 WINS – 13 LOSSES — 1 PUSHES
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $11,592.
NET GAIN/LOSS: + $1,592.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 3 – 2 – 0
LAST WEEK: 4 — 9 — 1 (-$1,779)
This is the toughest NFL card I’ve seen in some time. Several games involve inconsistent teams and notable key injuries, particularly at the quarterback position. I’m making less wagers than usual, but still have thoughts on every game. I’ve made 7 plays, have downgraded the bet amounts and see just one Best Bet on the board.
THIS WEEK’S BETS (lines current at of Saturday, 10 pm PST):
BEST BET: Jacksonville / Indianapolis UNDER 48 (-110) — $550 to win $500 …..This should be an ugly game, no matter who starts at QB for INDY. Game has been off the board later in week, but was totaled at O/U 48 earlier. Even with QB Luck out, and a total dropping to around a projected 44-45, this still plays to an UNDER, particularly with key some starters coming back from injuries for JAX defensively this week, plus a divisional game, and an INDY offense that still has major question marks, especially on offense (RB Gore and WR Johnson have been non-factors). Another factor — 7 of last 8 in this series have gone UNDER. JAX simply does not make big plays on offense to be able to keep pace with good offenses, and yet we see a crippled INDY team here that likely just wants to pick up the win and get back to the .500 mark in a season that’s been a disappointment, so far. I bet this one early in the week, but would make this wager somewhat smaller if the line drops to 44 for any reason. Anything 43 or lower is probably a pass.
Carolina -3 at Tampa Bay (-110) — $330 to win $300 …..This is a rare wager for me taking the road favorite, but I’m compelled to bet on what appears to be the far better team at a value number. CAR is 3-0 SU and ATS and has looked good on both sides of the ball in all three games. There won’t be any looking past a division opponent this week, not with ATL also 3-0 in the same division. CAR has certainly been impressive, while TAM has been anything but, particularly on offense with QB Winston still struggling. The rookie converted only 1/12 3rd downs last week and faces just as tough a defensive challenge here. TAM averages only 16 ppg, which tells me that 20 might be enough to get the cover here. Another factor — 11 of 13 TAM games have fallen UNDER the number — as history shows these games simply do not produce many points. TAM has also lost 8 straight at home SU, including getting blown out by 28 points first week to weak a TENN team. I expect CAR, which has won 4 straight in this series, to take care of business here. I do hate making the seemingly square pick, but until QB Winston matures a little, this is a team to fade so long as we have our money on a talented opponent, not laying too big a number. That’s certainly the case here with CAR.
Houston / Atlanta UNDER 47 (-110) — $220 to win $200 ……[SEE BELOW]
FIRST HALF: Houston +3.5 (-115) — $230 to win $200 …..ATL has been scoring points, and inside the dome in an non-conference game, one might expect that will continue. Despite injury, WR Jones will play, who is one of the game’s deepest threats. ATL running game also comes in on a roll, as RB Freeman put up 141 on DAL last week despite playing catch-up offense. However, both teams enter this game with a streak of UNDERs (ATL 5 of last 6 went under/HOU 4 out of last 5 went UNDER). Moreover, the Mallette situation at QB doesn’t seem to inspire confidence that HOU will produce lots points. HOU has to be careful this week with RB Foster coming back into the lineup, that he’s not overworked. However, that should help the ground game and slow down the big plays with some degree of ball control. So far as coaching strategy, HOU cannot get into a shootout here, and should be expected to mount drives and key on the defense which finally got into great last week (albeit versus terrible TAMPA), after getting shredded in the first two games. I’m looking for a far better HOU defensive effort here, and perhaps a bit of a hangover by high-flying ATL, especially if WR Jones misses any part of this game. As long as I catch the key number of 47 in totals betting, I’ll play the UNDER…..also like the dog in the first half, especially with the hook on the 3. I’ll take HOU to keep this close in first half.
NY Giants +5.5 at Buffalo (-110) — $440 to win $400 ……[SEE BELOW]
FIRST HALF: NY Giants +3.5 (-120) — $360 to win $300 …..Odd contradictions in the NYG-BUF game, with two of the league’s best run defenses, but also the 30th and 31st ranked pass defenses. Tempting to play NYG +5.5 here and that has to be the right side given a few key factors. NYG aren’t as bad as their 1-2 record indicates, as they could very well be 3-0 with a few breaks in the two close losses. QB Manning also playing it smarter this year, at least when it comes to interceptions. He’s one of only two starters without a pick this season. BUF without RB McCoy wasn’t an issue last week as backup Williams filled in nicely for 110 years. However, I’ll put that down to everything going right for BUF at MIA last week, doubting we’ll see a repeat performance. NYG had 10 days to prepare for this matchup, and getting generous points is too good a value to pass on. BUF is getting lots of respect with this line, too much I think, but I’ll fade them here and expect a close game decided by a field goal….Based on this reasoning I also have to take NYG getting generous hook on the 3 in the 1H as the live dog. NOTE: Wagering amount upgraded on this game.
Denver -7 vs. Minnesota (-110) — $330 to win $300 …..DEN defense should be the big difference here, which is likely to shut down MIN strong running game and force QB Bridgewater into lots of throws. MIN still not convincing to me as a competitive road team yet, especially versus tough home opponent playing well at the moment. MIN 31st ranked pass offense in the league versus DEN, which is ranked 1st. DEN is also one of the best run defenses in the league, ranking 6th. DEN has won 9 of 10 SU at home and covered 4 of last 5, and certainly will not take MIN lightly. Flat spot for both teams, but with home crowd and QB Manning hearing constant charges he’s done despite two big road wins, I’ll look to the favorite here to cover a reasonable number.
OTHER THOUGHTS:
— Reports are that MIA players are starting to give up on head coach Joe Philbin and his system, news that will keep me off them as a play this week. Offensively, this team has been horrific in all three games, and now they face a tougher NYJ defense in unfamiliar conditions (early London game). The plays is either NYJ here laying -1.5 or nothing. But I’m going to pass. Total at 42 looks dead on, meaning no play.
— Public has been all over OAK laying points at CHI this week, driving the line all the way up to -3.5. I can’t lay that road chalk and would normally grab the home dog blindly, but there’s no way I’m backing an offense led by QB Jimmy Clausen. CHI also showing signs they’re giving up already, dealing away three defensive players in trades and waivers, a sure sign they are getting desperate. However, I never lay more than a FG with a road dog, and particularly don’t like OAK’s defense, which is ranked dead last in just about every major category. Coach Fox also knows OAK from his days in DEN and may be better suited than usual This game could be an OVER 44, but will pass for now.
— There’s nothing about the KC-CIN game I like. This is a pass.
— Some talk that QB Luck could sit out all or part of this game, which is one of many question marks. INDY doesn’t inspire any confidence, going 0-3 ATS this season, and has looked particularly bad along the offensive line. However, JAX put up a dog shit performance last week that will keep me off them for some time (lost three wagers on them vs. NWE). To their credit, JAX does get back some key defensive players this week. Game is off the board due to Luck’s uncertainty (opened at INDY -9 then was yanked). I don’t think this news matters. I’m passing on the side.
— WASH vs. PHI is a desperate game for both teams. I’m inclined to play WASH at home getting the +3. Especially tough for PHI going on the road a second straight week after a must win. WASH with 1o days to prepare is the right side if you have to play the game, but I’ll pass. LATE SCRATCH DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAIN ON FIELD AND HIGH WINDS AT GAMETIME: Philadelphia / Washington OVER 43.5 (-110) — $330 to win $300 …..Not convinced PHI solved their issues last week, but at least they put up some points and should do the same here in what’s a must win for both teams. Key to the OVER play here is WASH defense will be without three key figures, including LB Riley Jr. pass defense leader CB Hall, while the other CB Culliver is questionable with sore knee. Even lackluster QB Bradford should be able to exploit these personnel holes, which creates more scoring, and perhaps a shootout game in WASH.
— CLE getting +7 is very tempting at SDI, which has looks shaky in parts of all three games this season. Might make this play as it’s just enough points to take a bite. But will wait and see for now, hoping to catch +7.5 if I can get that number late which would be much more attractive.
— Stepping in front of ARZ right now fading this team is like throwing yourself in front of a roaring freight train. This is arguably the NFC’s best team, and most balanced offense and defense. I’ve made a career out of making contrarian moves and am strongly tempted to play visiting STL here, but sure would like to get more points. It would take +7.5 for me to pull the trigger. ARZ is on a 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS run its last ten games at home, another tough trend to fade. QB Palmer now 14-3-1 ATS as ARZ starter. Meanwhile, STL offense has been a disaster since Week 1 and now goes on the road versus tough defense. Again, I can’t play them without more than a TD. Every square in the universe will be betting ARZ in this game, something I want no part of. I don’t like being on the public side.
— GB is a total sucker play going on the road after two big wins at home and 3-0 both ATS and SU, and now laying more than a TD. But I also won’t bet SFO, which has been exposed as a bottom-rung team with a fraud at QB. I’m just not sure GB comes in motivated here, although they’re on an 8-1 run ATS. As a rule, I never lay this many points in the road.
— NOR gets QB Brees back this week, but that’s not the issue with this team now reeling from an 0-3 start (backup McCown was 31/38 for 310 last week). Problem remains the offensive line, a porous defense, and a tendency to crumble late in close games. Remarkably, NOR has lost 6 straight at home, unthinkable for a team that once enjoyed one of the best home field advantages in the league. It’s impossible to back NOR here laying points, especially a FG+. Taht said, I want no part of DAL either, which collapsed badly in the second half last week and now faces a desperate team. I was wrong about DAL last week (I had them plus the points) and simply can’t pull the trigger again, especially with its two best players out (QB Romo and WR Bryant). Lean OVER on the total.
— SEA is probably the right side at home on MNF playing an obviously outclassed opponent that can’t stop anyone. One expects DET will struggle on offense as just about all visitors to SEA do, but I still can’t lay double digits. If for whatever reason we can find a -9.5 this might be a play on SEA, but otherwise a pass.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
BEST BET: Philadelphia / NY Jets UNDER 46.5 (-110) — $550 to win $500 …..WON
BEST BET: Miami -2.5 vs. Buffalo (-120) — $600 to win $500 …..LOST
Pittsburgh / St. Louis OVER 48 (-110) — $440 to win $400 …..LOST
TEASER: Arizona -.5 / Dallas +7.5 (-110) — $440 to win $400 …..LOST
Cincinnati +2.5 vs. Baltimore (-110) — $330 to win $300 …..WON
Dallas +1.5 vs. Atlanta (-105) — $315 to win $300 …..LOST
New Orleans / Carolina UNDER 43.5 (-110) — $330 to win $300 .….LOST
Oakland +3.5 at Cleveland (-110) — $330 to win $300 …..WON
Jacksonville +13.5 vs. New England — $220 to win $200 …..LOST
First Half: Jacksonville +7.5 — $220 to win $200 …..LOST
Team Total: Houston UNDER 24 (-125) — $250 to win $200 …..WON
First Half Team Total: Jacksonville OVER 9.5 (-130) — $260 to win $200 …..LOST
First Quarter: Pittsburgh/St. Louis OVER 9.5 (-124) — $248 to win $200 …..LOST
First Quarter: Tampa Bay/Houston OVER 7 (-134) — $268 to win $200 …..PUSH
SEASON WIN TOTALS — WAGERS:
Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 8.5 (+115) — wagering $2,000 to win $2,300 2-2
Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 9.5 (-110) — wagering $1,050 to win $1,000 1-2
NY Jets UNDER 7.5 (-120 /-135) — wagering $1,275 to win $1,000 2-1
Tennessee Titans OVER 5.5 (-150) — wagering $450 to win $300 1-2
Cleveland Browns UNDER 6.5 (-170) — wagering $510 to win $300 1-2
