NFL Week 3: Picks and Predictions

NOLAN DALLA — 2015 NFL SEASON RECORD

12 WINS – 4 LOSSES — 0 PUSHES

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $13,365.

NET GAIN/LOSS:  + $3,365.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  2 – 1 – 0

LAST WEEK:  5 — 4 — 0 

Last Monday night’s Indianapolis pick turned into a costly disaster.  It’s easy to see in retrospect how wrong that pick was. well after the game is over.  I beat up myself pretty badly for that pick, but then as I got to thinking more about the mathematics of sports gambling, I came to realize that being ridiculously wrong at times just goes with the betting territory.  Anyone who bets 8 to 10 plays per week is going to have an occasional “What the Fuck?” game.  Through 16 picks so far this regular season, I’ve had one “What the Fuck” pick, which was the Colts getting hammered on MNF.  And if I’m lucky, and I do mean really lucky, only 1/16 plays will turn out like that.  Trouble comes when we have picks like that more frequently, which is an indication something is very wrong.  This isn’t intended as a excuse for picks that turn out badly, but is simply intended to note that if you make a fair number of wagers, you’ll end up with results all over the map — including some “What the Fuck?” games.

Here’s to posting as few “What the Fuck” games as possible, going forward into this week.  I have 14 wagers, including 2 Best Bets and four late added plays (see below).

LATE ADDED PLAYS (which will be included in posted results):

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:

BEST BET:  New England (+1.5) vs. Buffalo — $550 to win $500          …..WON

BEST BET:  Miami/Jacksonville UNDER 41.5 — $550 to win $500          .….LOST

Carolina -3 vs. Houston (-105) — $420 to win $400          …..WON

Tampa Bay/New Orleans UNDER 47.5 — $330 to win $300          …..WON

Dallas/Philadelphia UNDER 55.5 — $330 to win $300          ….WON

Indianapolis -7 vs. NY Jets (-105) — $315 to win $300          .…LOST

TEASER:  Indianapolis -1/Pittsburgh -.5 — $440 to win $400          …..LOST

TEASER:  Indianapolis -1/Chicago +8.5 — $440 to win $400          …..LOST

FIRST HALF:  Washington +.5 vs. St. Louis — $220 to win $200          …..WON

THIS WEEK’S BETS (lines current at of Saturday 10 pm PST):

BEST BET:  Philadelphia / NY Jets UNDER 46.5 (-110) — $550 to win $500          …..Did oddmakers/public watch these two teams play any at all this season?  What in the hell is this total doing so high?  Both offenses have issues, especially in PHILA, which suffered one of its most humiliating defeats in years last week at home versus rival DAL.  I don’t see how coach Kelly’s crew turns this shit show around in just 6 days, going on the road versus a defense that appears to be every bit as good as the one they faced in the previous game.  PHILA offensive line is in absolute shreds, and certainly can’t run block judging by the run totals in first two games.  Star acquisition RB Murray likely could be out of the lineup and will be game-time decision [LATE UPDATE:  MURRAY INACTIVE].  So now, PHILA gets to face a defense with two of the best corners in the NFL.  Moreover, QB Bradford is being exposed as a fraud.  You can see the lack of confidence on his face.  We had serious doubts already about the Bradford trade, but after the confusing mess he lead last week, I’ll gladly fade the prospect he’ll produce many points on this next game which looks every bit as tough.  As for NYJ, the Gailey-Firzpatrick offense didn’t look particularly good in the INDY win, it was more the Colts just flat out stunk.  Fitzpatrick couldn’t even beat out weak Geno Smith in training camp and lacks any real deep threats.  I fail to see where the points are going to come from in this game.  The top PHILA wideout has four catches this season.  NYJ WR Decker is also listed as questionable.  Non-conference games do tend to be a little higher scoring, which is a concern.  However, I can’t see a lot of offense from either side and have to fade PHILA offense until I see something from that unit which shows me they should have a higher game total than average.  I’d have this number at 43.5.

BEST BET:  Miami -2.5 vs. Buffalo (-120) — $600 to win $500          …..I love this spot for MIA as s small favorite, off a disappointing loss and coming back for home opener versus team that got shattered last week and will find this a very tough road spot.  BUFF starts QB Taylor on road for the first time, where heat and humidity should be about 430 degrees on the field.  BUFF is also the NFL’s most penalized team, a situation I like to fade because it shows a lack of discipline or poor familiarity with the system (25 penalties in two games).   MIA has not done well against the run so far and faces the second-ranked rushing offense in the league.  However, reports are this week MIA has focused much attention on the run, and will force newbie Taylor to pass if BUFF expects to maintain drives.  I see motivation favoring the home favorite, especially with the more experienced starting QB.  MIA won here in a similar spot last year, 22-9.  I’ll lay the points.

Pittsburgh / St. Louis OVER 48 (-110) — $440 to win $400          …..PITT has turned into one of the NFL’s most reliable OVER teams, with an explosive passing attack and a terrible defense.  I see nothing to suggest a reversal of expectations here, with PITT likely to get it’s share of points, but also give up yards in the air, in a non-conference matchup.  PITT also gets back RB Bell, which will force STL to respect the run.  Meanwhile, STL defensive line which was getting raves coming into this season has looked less than average, and now faces their toughest passing opponent indoors and on carpet.  This game could become a shootout like the SEA-STL opener, especially if one team jumps to an early big lead and the other has to start throwing on every down.

TEASER:  Arizona -.5 / Dallas +7.5 (-110) — $440 to win $400          …..ARZ plays SFO, which got hammered last week, and exposed as the 6-win team they likely are this season.  No doubt, ARZ is for real and has one of the most explosive offenses in the league.  ARZ didn’t miss RB Ellington last week and here they get a soft divisional opponent and a chance to really take command in the division.  I expect a victory by the home favorite.  Obviously,the key number here is to get close to the zero and look for the home win….DAL plays ATL and in the other half of the teaser, I expect DAL to play well at home despite the injuries versus an ATL team that’s a bit overrated by linesmakers in this spot, going on the road as a favorite.  We Wong Teaser this to pick up the key numbers versus opponent that tends to play lots of close games.  See more info on this game in DAL+1.5 write up.

Cincinnati +2.5 vs. Baltimore (-110) — $330 to win $300          …..Trend followers and contrarians will jump all over 0-2 BALT to bounce back this week versus division rival 2-0 CIN, but I view that as a wager based on hope rather than reality.  BAL is full of holes, both at skill positions and defense and now laying points doesn’t seem to be wise.  While we don’t want to overreact to the OAK loss (allowing 40 points to the Raiders!), BAL isn’t the team we’ve historically seen during the Harbaugh era (6 out of 7 seasons of playoff appearances, but never an 0-2 start).  Meanwhile, CIN has won three straight in this series and gets to face a BAL defense without Terrell Suggs (out for season).  BAL lacks the ability to pass rush and pressure, and CIN’s Dalton is the only NFL QB without a sack or an interception so far this season.  Dalton 4-1 ATS last five starts vs. BALT, while BALT is a miserable 6-12-1 ATS as a favorite against division rivals when Flacco starts.  CIN appears to have found a solid TE in Eifert (13 catches and three TDs).  BAL will certainly be motivated, but they’re not the better team right now, and getting points with a solid CIN team who can take control of the division appears to be the right side.

Dallas +1.5 vs. Atlanta (-105) — $315 to win $300          …..DAL likely would have opened at -6 without major injuries, so the loss of QB Romo is judged to be worth about a touchdown.  I’ll fade the prospects DAL performance will fall off too much, as the fundamentals of a solid offensive line and good defense (#1 against the run) remain in place.  Moreover, DAL will certainly not take the opponent lightly, as good teams often rally behind backups in situations like this.  I”m also going out on a limb suggesting backup QB Wendeen may be better than he showed those miserable years in CLE.  He gets a chance to shine here at home with a full week of practice, and is coming off a perfect 7/7 outing off the bench last week.  Serious concern if TE Witten doesn’t start (192 straight starts), but he practiced on Friday, so that’s some indication he will play.  As for ATL, there’s not much I like about this team, especially going on the road for a second straight week after a flaky win.  ATL could be 0-2 right now (in which case this line is DAL -3 at a minimum no matter who starts at QB).  But the biggest factor in fading ATL is their dismal rushing game (less than 3 YPC).  This week they also start three new offensive linemen — which is a terrible recipe for a road favorite.  I just think DAL is more solid, especially on defense and is too good a value at this number to pass up.

New Orleans / Carolina UNDER 43.5 (-110) — $330 to win $300          .….There’s nothing to like about the NOR offense right now, especially with QB Brees out of the game with injury (backup McCown getting his first start here).  NOR offense was struggling badly anyway, and now go on road versus solid defense in a divisional game (which tend to be lower scoring), not the best situation for lots of points.  I was fading NOR coming into the season, noting the loss of skill players would badly hurt offensively production.  But the real problem is along the offensive line which can’t run or pass block.  NOR is committing lots of penalties, which could also be a problem with a new QB making a road start this week.  As for CAR, this is an offense that seems to get just enough yards and points to win.  WR Benjamin out for the season, who was their best deep threat last season.  Last year, this game between rivals in Charlotte produced a 28-10 finale, and that was with Brees starting.  Total looks a bit high, given how many problems NOR has at the moment.  Several trends also point to a low scoring game:  CAR has only scored 37 points in two games, so far.   CAR 6-3-1 to the UNDER at home since start of last season. NOR on streak of 4 straight UNDER dating back to last season.  10 of last 12 games between these teams at CAR have gone UNDER.  

Oakland +3.5 at Cleveland (-110) — $330 to win $300           …..Two teams that were supposed to be awful both posted big wins last week.  I was particularly impressed with OAK, which staged a nice comeback and looked better offensively.  CLE doesn’t perform well after wins historically, going 1-6 ATS in the next game.  Biggest question for CLE is how they will respond to change at QB this week,with McCown back under center, replacing Manziel.  Too many questions for CLE which looks like a good fade here, especially laying the hook on the 3 (+3.5 makes this mandatory).  Meanwhile, QB Carr threw for a career best 350+ last week with help of two legitimate wideouts (Crabtree and Cooper) and gets to face depleted CLE secondary without FS Williams.  Looks like a FG game either way, so I’ll take the points.  Note:  Legitimate concern with OAK defense which gave up huge yards and points first two games, but should face much less dangerous opponent here.   

Jacksonville +13.5 vs. New England — $220 to win $200          …..SEE BELOW

First Half:  Jacksonville +7.5 — $220 to win $200          …..Purely a situational play, as NWE does not fare well as a double-digit favorite last several years, covering only about a third of the time.  No pressure on JAX here which comes off the home upset win, which might favor them in this role as a big underdog.  I’ll take the hook in the 7 in the 1H hoping that NWE is a bit hungover from big divisional win last week and playing an opponent they might not take as seriously. Looking for an ugly game where the better tema just goes through the motions.  JAX 4-1 ATS last five games and also looks much better defensively than this pointspread suggests as they give up less than 20 PPG their last ten regular season games.  NWE teams do have a tendency to put up ugly games like this once or twice each season and this looks to be the week they eek out a 23-13 victory.  

OTHER THOUGHTS:

— TAM-HOU tough game to cap, although I lean to the UNDER 40 and the +7 with the dog.  Two young QBs points to what should be a close game.  But I”m laying off this one, not liking the prospect of backing TAM off a big upset win on the road last week, and going on the road yet again versus team that will be desperate for a win.

— SDI-MIN looks to be a good spot for small home favorite and an OVER play.  However, I see better value elsewhere so I’m going to pass.

— INDY-TENN was a tempting play on the home dog getting +3.5, especially with INDY thin at so many positions.  I might play this, fading public perceptions that INDY is still a Super Bowl contender.  They’re not.  Betting INDY here is idiotic.  It’s TENN or nothing.

— CHI-SEA will attract lots of square money on home favorites, even at -14 and I want no piece of that.  However, you would need to give me four touchdowns and a blindfold before I would bet on any team QB’ed by Jimmy “Clueless” Clausen.  Pass.

–DEN-DET is a good spot for the home favorite.  I’ll play DET most likely, and also give some consideration to the OVER.

— KC-GB should be an interesting game, and the Packers look to be the right side.  Wait and see.  Nothing jumps out, other than perhaps an OVER in this game.

SEASON WIN TOTALS  — WAGERS:

Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 8.5 (+115) — wagering $2,000 to win $2,300    1-1

Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 9.5 (-110) — wagering $1,050 to win $1,000   0-2

NY Jets UNDER 7.5 (-120 /-135) — wagering $1,275 to win $1,000     2-0

Tennessee Titans OVER 5.5 (-150) — wagering $450 to win $300     1-1

Cleveland Browns UNDER 6.5 (-170) — wagering $510 to win $300     1-1