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Posted by on Jan 3, 2016 in Blog, Essays | 2 comments

What I Want — 16 Boring Low-Scoring NFL Games

 

NFL-referee-Gene-Sterator-010

 

Today, I’ll be cheering my ass off for 16 boring, low-scoring football games.

Give me a shitload of sacks.  Give me a bunch of fumbles and interceptions.  Give me a slew of incomplete passes.  Give me plenty holding penalties.  Give me missed field goals.  Give me down after down of one-yard-gains and a pile of dust.  Give me a heaping pile of gridiron garbage that falls UNDER the betting total.  Give me games where the stars are the punters.  I don’t want scoring.  I want grotesque ugliness on a grand scale.  For UNDER bettors, boredom is beautiful, baby.

On Sunday, I’m betting every NFL game to go UNDER the total.

I’m pounding all the UNDERs for a number of compelling reasons.  First, history indicates the final week of the regular season tends to be far more lackluster offensively than the other 16 weeks.  Second, at least 10 NFL teams will start relatively weak and inexperienced backup quarterbacks on Sunday, including some real clunkers (Dallas, Tennessee, Baltimore, Cleveland, San Francisco).  Third, some teams could their pull starters at some point during the games.  Fourth, offensive lines in particular are banged up this time of the year and in some cases play the backups more (no one wants to risk a career-ending injury in a meaningless game).  Fifth, NFL O/U totals for this week are actually just as high as in preceding weeks.  Perhaps most important — all of today’s games are inter-division matchups, which tend to be lower scoring than non-division games (interconference games are the highest scoring).  All these factors mean we get added value betting the UNDERs across the board, particularly as a contrarian anti-public wagering strategy, a strategy I’ve championed for the past 20 years (interrupted by some occasional slippage).

During the last five seasons (which is as far as I went back tracking the totals), in the final week of the regular season UNDERs have gone a stellar 46-32-3.  The year-by-year breakdown is as follows:  (2014) 11-5; (2013) 9-7; (2012) 7-8-1; (2011) 9-7; (2010) 10-5-2   Admittedly, this includes a limited number of trials.  But I do place some significance on the 59 percent trend towards UNDERs.

I don’t believe this propensity for UNDERs is accidental nor random, as seasonal injuries have taken their toll, especially with offenses.  Also, perhaps as many as seven NFL teams could also make coaching changes in the offseason, which only adds to offenses going through the motions.  Two games could be impacted by adverse weather (although that factor sometimes favors the OVER).

With a bankroll of $11,835, I’m firing my entire personal fortune into action, hoping to grind out at least 2 or 3 units.  Each wager will be in the amount of risking $770 to win $700.  Late Update:  The TENN-INDY total is currently off the board, so that game will not be included.  Hence, I’m making 15 wagers today, instead of 16.

Here are the current totals as of Saturday night:

NY Jets at Buffalo — UNDER 41.5

Tampa at Carolina — UNDER 45.5

New England at Miami — UNDER 46.5

Baltimore at Cincinnati — UNDER 41.5

New Orleans at Atlanta — UNDER 52.5   (BEST BET)

Jacksonville at Houston — UNDER 45.5

Pittsburgh at Cleveland — UNDER 47

Oakland at Kansas City — UNDER 44

Washington at Dallas — UNDER 39.5

Detroit at Chicago — UNDER 45.5

Philadelphia at NY Giants — UNDER 51.5   (BEST BET)

Minnesota at Green Bay — UNDER 45.5

San Diego at Denver — UNDER 41.5

St. Louis at San Francisco — UNDER 38.5

Seattle at Arizona — UNDER 47.5

Ugly games are a thing of beauty for UNDER bettors.  I want an ugly NFL Week 17.  Enjoy the offensive ineptitude and laugh all the way to the payout window.  Next stop, the playoffs.

 

NOLAN DALLA — 2015 NFL SEASON RECORD

59 WINS – 90 LOSSES — 3 PUSHES

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $11,835

NET GAIN/LOSS:  + $1,835.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  11 – 8 – 2

LAST WEEK:  12 — 7 — 0

NY GIANTS +7 vs. MINNESOTA — RISKING $1,100 to WIN $1,000…..LOST

ATLANTA +7 vs. CAROLINA — RISKING $1,100 to WIN $1,000…..WON

DALLAS +6.5 vs. BUFFALO — RISKING $1,100 to WIN $1,000…..LOST

SAN FRANCISCO +10 at DETROIT — RISKING $1,100 to WIN $1,000…..LOST

CLEVELAND +10 at KANSAS CITY — RISKING $1,100 to WIN $1,000…..WON

NY JETS +3 vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS — RISKING $550 to WIN $500…..WON

ST. LOUIS +12 vs. SEATTLE — RISKING $550 to WIN $500….WON

CHICAGO +3.5 vs. TAMPA BAY — RISKING $550 to WIN $500…..WON

HOUSTON / TENNESSEE UNDER 41 — RISKING $550 to WIN $500…..WON

GREEN BAY +4.5 at PHOENIX — RISKING $550 to WIN $500…..LOST

FIRST HALF BETS:

NY GIANTS +4 — $330 to WIN $300….LOST

CHICAGO +2.5 — $330 to WIN $300….WON

ATLANTA +3.5 — $330 to WIN $300….WON

DALLAS +3.5 — $330 to WIN $300….WON

SAN FRANCISCO +6 — $330 to WIN $300….WON

CLEVELAND +6.5 — $330 to WIN $300….LOST

GREEN BAY +3 — $330 to WIN $300….LOST

ST. LOUIS +7 — $330 to WIN $300….WON

 

SEASON WIN TOTALS  — WAGERS (-$2,425 to be added into record at season’s end)

Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 8.5 (+115) — wagering $2,000 to win $2,300…..loser

Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 9.5 (-110) — wagering $1,050 to win $1,000…..winner

NY Jets UNDER 7.5 (-120 /-135) — wagering $1,275 to win $1,000…..loser

Tennessee Titans OVER 5.5 (-150) — wagering $450 to win $300…..loser

Cleveland Browns UNDER 6.5 (-170) — wagering $510 to win $300……winner

2 Comments

  1. I think that next year you could found a new pleasure in betting a different sporting venue, I mean it, you are shooting blanks at a soul less sport.

    You could be done with Football and who with his full passionate mental abilities should keep betting?

    You got to found us a new venue where the bookies, computers, lawyers, medias can’t affect our mentally challenged brains need for gratifications with a crazy authentic outcomes to be disappointed on a regular base.

  2. Looks like you’re missing a great opportunity for the nuclear “under” 15 team teaser with Denver as the key play.
    Good luck anyways..

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