NFL Week #13: Analysis and Picks
That’s four winning weeks in a row.
That’s 54 wins, 20 losses over the course of this run.
On 231 overall posted picks this NFL season — that’s 55.9 percent wins. Currently +28 games over .500. See the full stats below.
I’ll take it.
As for the Westgate SuperContest (7 entries at $1,000 each), that’s an even better success story. Scroll down read more about winning $25,000 in one of their mid-season contests after last week’s games.
But….
One thing I’ve learned from many years in sports betting and posting picks is to always keep things in proper perspective. We’re never quite as good as our best winning streak. And, we’re never as bad as our worst losing streak. Anyone who mistakenly thinks they’ve figured out NFL handicapping and will hit 60+ percent going forward is delusional. Fact: We’re all just one losing streak away from being jolted back to reality — including the very best handicappers. Of course, I’m enjoying this great run while I can. But I have no illusions that 78 percent win streaks (I went 15-4 last week) will continue.
So, let’s now get to this week’s picks, with a short summary of each selection:
WEEK 13 ANALYSIS AND PICKS:
[All wagers are juiced to -110 unless noted otherwise]
FULL GAME TEAM TOTAL: NEW ENGLAND OVER 16.5 ($220/200)
Coach Bill Belichick may have hit the rock bottom point of his career after losing to the NY Giants last week in a dismal offensive performance by the comatose Patriots. No one could have predicted this franchise would crash so badly. However, I actually think this anger-disappointment could trigger a “nothing to lose” or “all hands on deck” or “what the fuck!” effort this week versus the ideal soft opponent, which doesn’t mean I’m taking the Patriots plus the points, because they can’t be trusted. But when we suddenly see a very low total on a New England home game at O/U 16.5 and the Patriots have the added advantage this week of playing against one of the NFL softest ice cream scooper defenses, this looks like an opportunity to fade the market. Perhaps the Patriots horrendous offensive statistics can even somewhat be forgiven given they were on the road last week and likely in a lame duck situation. With no expectations and their season looking like the the modly pork chop in the Golden Corral buffet at 9:35 on a Tuesday night, look for the Patriots to take some chances offensively and connect with some success against this horrible Charger defense that ranks DEAD LAST against the pass. Moreover, I’m starting to think Charger QB Herbert is one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the NFL — I mean has this guy ever won an important game? Herbert crumbles under pressure and could be good for a couple of turnovers. I wouldn’t touch this NWE team total at 17.5, but given we catch the win on the 17, I think the Patriots offense and perhaps defense can put up enough points to push this over the team total. This is the lowest team total on the Patriots all season long — time to go contrarian.
FULL GAME SIDE BET: DETROIT -4 ($220/200)
Initially, I was on the home dog New Orleans Saints….not because they’re the better team against the Detroit Lions but coming off a hugely disappointing loss at Atlanta last week yet still in first place I think perhaps the line could have overreacted here. But ———- then I looked closer at the New Orleans offensive situation. If anything, this line might be too low. Who is Derek Carr going to throw the ball to? He’s already struggling with his receivers when they’re at full strength but the last decent WR on the Saints might not play:
WR Thomas — OUT
WR Shaheed — OUT
WR Olave — questionable, on concussion protocol
RB Miller — OUT
Even Blake Grupe, the usually reliable kicker is listed as questionable
RB Kamara is going to come out of the backfield and catch 15 balls, but I’m not sure that this Saints team has enough weapons to keep up with the Lions as long as Detroit actually shows up and doesn’t shit the bed with a better effort than they showed on Thanksgiving Day hosting Green Bay. The extra layoff and coming off the loss should help motivate the Lions to put up a much better show. I would typically be concerned about the Lions mediocre defense, but New Orleans with its numerous injuries at skill positions just won’t have the weapons to exploit those weaknesses. We remain concerned with the last Lions’ loss, but let’s keep this in perspective that Detroit remains 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last nine games. The Lions gave up 37-38-29 points in their three losses…so when they lose, it’s because of opponent scoring (not their lack of production). The Saints are likely to have problems offensively. Even healthy, Saints offense has gone UNDER on team total in 8/11 this season, and now they aren’t at full strength. So, I’m comfortable laying points with the road favorite here.
UPDATE: As of Sunday AM, Chris Olave has been cleared to play.
FULL GAME TOTAL: DETROIT/NEW ORLEANS UNDER 47.5 at -115 ($230/200)
For many of the reasons expressed above, I’m also playing the UNDER in this game. If NOR falls behind, they’re going to be forced to throw, but other than Taysom Hill, there’s limited receiving targets for Carr and company (could Winston enter the game?). Meanwhile, if Detroit builds a lead, I’m not sure they’re going to roll up points because New Orleans defense is better than average and being on the road in the Superdome can be a tough place to play. So, at 47.5 there’s certainly a value to go UNDER the total, especially since we’ve seen a propensity of UNDERs in the NFL this season. Add B. Grupe the Saints kicker perhaps not playing and NOR might not even bother with 50+ yard attempts, which also helps the UNDER.
FULL GAME SIDE BET: PITTSBURGH -6 ($220/200)
Arizona at 2-8 SU looks to be a mess right now. Initially, when QB K. Murray came back after nearly a year off from injury, he sparked a good effort from the team but that spark of a honeymoon may be faded already. The Cardinals have collapsed, losing by three TDs to the Rams at home last week. Their defense is awful and even lackluster Pittsburgh should be able to move the ball and cover this line. As I mentioned last week in the writeup, the Steelers at 7-4 seem to have been winning with smoke and mirrors given they were out-gained in all their previous games. Then all the sudden they fired OC Canada and instantly the Steelers offense puts up over 400 yards for the first time in 56 games. So, whatever happened with the play calling, it apparently worked. Now this week, the Steelers will face an even weaker Cards defense at home. Some concern that the Cardinals do run the ball pretty well, but then that’s offset because Pittsburgh’s main strength is their run defense. Arizona is 1-8 SU/3-6 ATS in its last nine games, allowing a whopping 35 TD’s on 107 drives. In that same span, Arizona has given up 27.4 PPG–ranking third worst in the NFL. Steelers are 4-2 both SU and ATS at home this season. Last four games, Pittsburgh ran ball for 166-205-172-153 yards. I like betting on good defenses and offenses that run the ball well, especially versus bad teams. Look for the Steelers to stay very much alive in the playoff race with a home win and (let’s hope) a pointspread cover, as well.
FULL GAME SIDE BET: TENNESSEE +1 ($220/200)
FIRST HALF: TENNESSEE +.5 at -120 ($240/200)
Some things in NFL betting are inexplicable. The 4-7 Tennessee Titans are a a Jekyll-Hyde team. They are awful on the road, but go figure — they’re undefeated at home this season. Yet, they’re getting point (+1) here as an underdog. Titans are 4-0 SU/ATS at home this season. There’s very little to inspire confidence with the Titans, statistically speaking. Nonetheless, there something in Nashville that simply inspires this team to play at its peak. Meanwhile, I’m not convinced the Colts are really all as good as their 6-5 record indicates, Indy’s defense is really bad, and there’s a decent chance that RB Jonathan Taylor will be out for this game. If that happens, the Colts are severely downgraded as an offensive threat. Sometimes intangibles in NFL handicapping are the most important determinate in picking a side. I’m not sure what it is about the Titans playing at home that compels such strong efforts, but I’m going to continue riding that streak especially since they’re an underdog. I’ll also play the Titans in the first half getting the half point.
FULL GAME SIDE BET: DENVER +3.5 at -120 ($240/200)
FIRST HALF: DENVER +2.5 at -115 ($230/200)
I got this early one in early this week, at Denver +3.5. That’s a bad number, which should have been +3 (at most). Getting the hook on the field goal was the key determining factor for me and I like them at anything +3 or greater. Like many teams this season, the Broncos have been winning “ugly.” Nothing flashy. Statistically, unimpressive. But Denver has won five straight. Their defense — giving up just 17-9-22-20-12 points, respectively — played as well as any team in the NFL over the past several games and they’ve also upset the Chiefs and the Bills on the road during that stretch. If anything the Broncos are still undervalued here. They also have their first winning record since QB R. Wilson joined the team. I also like what head coach Sean Payton’s doing, very quietly building confidence with his team that wasn’t there in the first month of the season. Houston looks to be the perfect road opponent because they won’t be taken lightly. I also suspect the Texans might not easily shake off last week’s killer loss, which basically knocks them out of the AFC South race. Even though the Texans have become a respectable team after so many years as a laughing stock let’s don’t forget that this is still the Texans and they don’t win games by wide margins. Last four wins were by thin margins of just 5-3-2-7 points. Most all of their games are nail biters and I expect this one could be very much the same. In a close contest, with two teams trying to keep alive in the playoff race, I’m counting on the +3.5 points to be in play here with a live ticket on the dog. Give me the Broncos in both the first half and the full game.
FULL GAME SIDE BET: LA RAMS -3.5 ($220/200)
I don’t understand the public thinking on this game. What year is this — 2012? I’ll explain in a moment. The 5-6 LA Rams have been on a mini-resurgence with two straight division wins and are healthy again. They earned a convincing victory on the road last week in Phoenix now they return home with their faint playoff hopes still very much alive and they face a team that got blown out last week in Denver. Moreover, in a shocking move, the Browns are going to start Joe Flacco at quarterback who hasn’t taken a snap in a year and spent three seasons tucked in a fetal position with the NY Jets. Flacco was awful then, and I can’t imagine sitting at home watching Popeye cartoons is going to help his mobility or his limited skills as a quarterback. Flacco may be the most uninspiring team leader I’ve seen in a decade. Credit him as the captain of the three-yard forward pass and now joining the Browns isn’t going to spark the same kind of enthusiasm that a young up-and-coming quarterback who’s unproven might rally the other players. We know what we’re getting with Flacco and it’s not good. Am I overreacting to Flacco? Maybe. But, this strikes me as a desperation move for a team that’s 7-4 and thinking they have to do something to jump start the offense. They’re in the same class now as the Jets and Bengals — otherwise talented and likely playoff teams, but without a QB. LA Rams with an aggressive pass rush should be able to exploit Flacco’s notorious immobility and force pressure. Laying -3.5 looks reasonable fading a team that should have trouble scoring. Oh, and as to “what is the public thinking?” The QB change for the Browns moved the line from LAR -4 to LAR -3.5. Do bettors really think Flacco helps the Browns’ QB situation?
FULL GAME SIDE BET: JACKSONVILLE -8.5 ($330/300)
My “best bet” of the week looks to be the Jacksonville Jaguars even though they’re uncharacteristically laying a large number. This is the Jaguar’s first Monday Night home game in 12 years and Jacksonville tends to beat the teams they should beat. Jaguars won/covered seven of their last eight games, so we are catching them playing their best ball. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is a three-legged dog without J. Burrow under center (out for the season). I’m not sure I’d lay this number if it was a Sunday day game but on Monday night this is a prime showcase opportunity for the Jaguars who many predicted would take a big step as an NFL contender in 2023 and now here’s their chance on a national stage to do exactly that against an outclassed opponent. I expect Jacksonville to shine in this spot and run up the score if they can as the team all but locks up the division title with another win or two. I’ll lay the -8.5.
2-TEAM/6-PT. TEASER: JACKSONVILLE -2.5 / PITTSBURGH -EV at -130 ($390/$300)
Reasoning listed above in write-ups. Note that teasers are unplayable in Las Vegas now because they’re juiced to -130 and even -140 in some spots. So, I just don’t play them much anymore, but here’s a rare exception. I’ll tease the Jaguars using the Wong basic strategy from -8.5 to -2.5 and combine with the Steelers from -6 down to PICK. Both of these home teams are playing against struggling opponents and should win so it’s well worth the risk even with the higher vig. I miss my “teaser wheels” — otherwise I’d tie the Jaguars to the entire board if I wasn’t having to lay minus 130.
PLAYER PROP: KICKER KOO [ATL] OVER 6.5 PTS. at -125 ($250/200)
PLAYER PROP: KICKER ZUERLEIN [NYJ] OVER 5.5 PTS. at -105 ($210/200)
PLAYER PROP: KICKER HAVRISIK [LAR] OVER 6.5 PTS. at -120 ($240/200)
I’m back this week with three kicker props this week, which is fewer than usual. There’s a number of problems with other kickers that I won’t get into (okay, injuries-weather-outdoors-matchups), but I do think the Jets-Falcons game could be a back and forth battle of field goals and I also like the rising Rams to put up some points on the Browns at home in the dome.
PLAYER PROP: RB KAMARA [NOR] OVER 32.5 RECEIVING YARDS ($220/200)
I’ve got one (maybe two) player props so far, which is Kamara (New Orleans RB) catching more passes than the number and also getting more receiving yards. But still awaiting the send out, which is usually Saturday night. The reason is Carr (or perhaps Winston) won’t have many trustworthy receiving targets due to injuries so look for a lot of dumping and short yardage where the always-reliable Kamara is going to be the safety valve for the Saints offense. I expect he gets a lot of four- and five-yard gains and will go OVER on his receiving props. Tomorrow’s rushing total is already posted at 51 yards — I have no opinion on that.
—–THIS IS THE FINAL UPDATE FOR WEEK 13—–
WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST PICKS – WEEK 13
This year, the Westgate SuperContest attracted 1,301 entries. I have seven entries–costing $1,000 each (total investment–$7,000). All seven tickets are in excellent shape at this point. The contest will pay the top-20 spots, with $200,000 going to first place. There are also mid-season contests, and I just won one of them, good for $25,000.
On the season-long contest, right now, I’m tied for 10th place. I also have two tickets in the top-25 and three tickets in the top-50 and five tickets in the top-150. CLICK HERE FOR OFFICIAL WESTGATE STANDINGS
Overall, the seven entries are a combined +95 games over.500. Here’s the breakdown.
Here’s this week’s contest picks, along with the W-L records on each ticket:
[Note that these contest lines differ from above because they’re based on the close as of Wednesday night at Westgate]
TICKET 1 (37-19-4)
DET -4
TEN +1
CAR +5.5
LAR -3.5
JAX -8.5TICKET 2 (37-21-2)
PIT -5.5
DET -4
DEN +3.5
LAR -3.5
JAX -8.5TICKET 3 (38-21-1)
PIT -5.5
TEN +1
DET -4
LAR -3.5
JAX -8.5TICKET 4 (35-22-3)
PIT -5.5
CAR +5.5
LAR -3.5
DEN +3.5
JAX -8.5TICKET 5 (35-24-1)
PIT -5.5
TEN +1
DET -4
LAR -3.5
JAX -8.5TICKET 6 (33-24-3)
PIT -5.5
TEN +1
DET -4
LAR -3.5
JAX -8.5TICKET 7 (35-24-2)
CAR +5.5
DET -4
TEN +1
DEN +3.5
JAX -8.5
SURVIVOR CONTEST STRATEGY — WEEK 13
Here’s my latest article at SurvivorSweat.com on the $9.4 million Circa contest: Click Below.
WEEK 13 REPORT — READ HERE
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2023 NFL WAGERING RECORD
131 — Wins
103 — Losses
3 — Pushes
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $12,720.
Net Gain/Loss: + $2,720.
Last Week: 15 wins – 4 losses (+ $1,975.)11-Year Comprehensive Record (2012-present):
CLICK HERE
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This Week’s Picks and Results — Completed
Full Game Total: Dallas / Seattle UNDER 47.5 (Risking $220 to win $200)….LOST
Stats and trends say the 8-3 Cowboys should win tonight and cover in a blowout hosting the 6-5 Seahawks. After all, the streaking Cowboys are undefeated at home and have dominated weaker teams this season as 7 of their 8 victories were by 20+ points including last week’s breezy home victory hosting Washington. Meanwhile, Seattle has nosedived into a tailspin since losing to the Rams two weeks ago and have dropped 3 of 4. The Seahawks looked downright awful at home on Thanksgiving Day losing to the 49ers by double digits. This decline could be in part because of QB Geno Smith’s elbow injury, but we’ve seen this happen before with the Seahawks who start their seasons well under Pete Carroll but then fade later in the season—and that’s precisely what’s happening now. The trouble is this spread, which opened at -7.5 and is up to -9 and even -9.5 in many places which is we have to sorry about oddsmaker and public overreaction at some point. I don’t believe in “due” being applied to handicapping, but the Cowboys (and any good team) always hit speed bumps along the way and will simply go through the motions and put up a subpar game when it’s not expected. Even the best teams don’t blow out every opponent by 20+ each week. So, this potentially does look like one of those trap games for Dallas who could be fat and happy and underestimate the struggling Seahawks. Seattle does has everything to play for with playoff hopes quickly fading, yet no one expects them to come into Dallas and win tonight on Thursday Night Football. Accordingly, I lean to take Seattle plus the points but then my confidence level simply isn’t there enough to pull the trigger as Dallas has been so dominant on both sides of the ball and I just don’t know what state of mind the Seahawks are in at this point. It’s also worth noting that I do think there’s something to this Cowboys team that we haven’t seen in the last 10 or 15 years where games like this are intentionally used to build team confidence. Dallas builds a lead and then keeps the pressure on, whereas in the past the Cowboys and a lot of other teams would just be content with a victory. Based on those 7 blowouts when Dallas was still throwing the ball late in game with big leads, this year’s Cowboys don’t just want a victory–they want to make a bold statement to the league, and I do think that’s resonating through the locker room and will create perhaps a different team than we’ve been used to seeing with the Cowboys customarily being bounced out early in the playoffs. No, I’m not a believer yet, but there is this possibility. Where I think value does exist is on the total as we’ve seen these NFL primetime games go UNDER overwhelmingly including 77 percent of the Thursday-Sunday-Monday night games completed this season, In all my years, I’ve never seen anything like this with so many low scores and oftentimes these games aren’t even close to hitting the OVER. Much of this lack of scoring league-wide is because of collective transition at the quarterback position for so many teams, combined with improving defenses and in my estimation a more balanced enforcement of penalties which used to overwhelmingly favor the offenses and frankly I’m glad to see lower scoring, so-called “boring” games because there easier to handicap (embrace these games and quit complaining, people! — SEE NOTE BELOW). To be clear, D. Prescott and G. Smith do not file the profile of “UNDER” quarterbacks, but there’s possibly something to these night games that results in less scoring (thought it could be random variance). We’ll see. My UNDER wager is a combination of my suspicion that Dallas may not quite hit on all cylinders tonight offensively and they won’t be scoring into the 40s like they’ve been doing in all of these home games against big underdogs I also think Seattle will continue to struggle offensively as I’m not sure that G. Smith is fully recovered from a elbow injury while the fading Seahawks have really had trouble moving the ball and scoring the last few weeks. So, the total at 47.5 looks like a solid UNDER. I’d have this at 43.5 or 44 — and so catching the OVER on the 47 is a win for us. Hence, my final determination is a lean slightly to the Seahawks +9.5 but no action, and a standard bet on the UNDER 47.5. I’d also bet UNDER 47 for a smaller amount if that’s your only option.
[* Added: A few thoughts about scoring patterns in the NFL. For years, the public has loved betting OVERs. Why? Football fans like points. They want exciting games. And so the league fed this public appetite by making the game more pass friendly, giving many advantages to quarterbacks and receivers. Well, fuck that! Trouble is, so-called exciting, high-scoring games are horrible for handicapping and for most bettors. It’s much more difficult to predict outcomes with higher variance, which is often the case in shootouts. However, this season scores are lower, points are down, and totals have dropped considerably. The average points scored is 43.3 per game which is down to pre-2010 levels before NFL instituted several rule changes designed to help offenses and increase scoring (Note: The highest scoring period was three seasons ago when NFL games averaged 49.6 PPG, the highest in history. So, scoring is down by a full touchdown per game in just the last few seasons). Why is this happening? The most important is the league is filled lots of new young QBs and also higher than usual numbers of unproven offensive coordinators. To date, 11 rookie QBs have started games this season–that’s the most ever in the Super Bowl era, and its only Week #12. UNDERs have hit about 60 percent across the board, but where we really make money is betting UNDERs in primetime games — TNF SNF, and MNF. NFL Betting Trends: Primetime UNDERS are now 31-9-1 —— 77 pct. in 2023 regular season.]
Last Week’s Picks and Results — Completed
Full Game Bet: Dallas -12.5 (Risking $330 to win $300)…..WON
Full Game Bet: San Francisco -7 (Risking $220 to win $200)…..WON
Two-Team Teaser: Dallas -6.5 / San Francisco -1 at -120 (Risking $360 to win $300)…..WON
Full Game Bet: Chicago +3.5 (Risking $220 to win $200)….WON
First Half: Chicago +1.5 at -105 (Risking $210 to win $200)….WON
Full Game Bet: Denver -1.5 (Risking $220 to win $200)….WON
First Half: Houston +.5 (half point) at -120 (Risking $240 to win $200)….LOST
Full Game Bet: Pittsburgh -1.5 (Risking $220 to win $200)….WON
Full Game Bet: Las Vegas +10 at -115 (Risking $230 to win $200)….LOST
Player Prop: Kicker Grupe (NOR) OVER 6.5 points at -130 (Risking $130 to win $100)….WON
Player Prop: Kicker Koo (ATL) OVER 6.5 points at -135 (Risking $135 to win $100)….LOST
Player Prop: Kicker Gay (TB) OVER 6.5 points at -125 (Risking $125 to win $100)….WON
Player Prop: Kicker McLaughlin (IND) OVER 6.5 points at even (Risking $100 to win $100)….WON
Player Prop: Kicker Santos (CHI) OVER 5.5 points at -135 (Risking $135 to win $100)….WON
Player Prop: Kicker Carlson (LV) OVER 5.5 points (Risking $220 to win $200)….LOST
Full Game Bet: Indianapolis -2.5 (Risking $220 to win $200)….WON
Full Game Total: Indianapolis/Tampa Bay OVER 44.5 ($220 to win $200)….WON
Team Total: Indianapolis OVER 21.5 at -120 (Risking $240 to win $200)….WON
Player Prop: Pittman WR (IND) OVER 69.5 receiving yards (Risking $220 to win $200)….WON
[Disclaimer: Weekly picks have been posted here at my website since Sept. 2012. All NFL picks can be reviewed here and are documented and are in the website archives, available via a search. Analysis provided is to the best of my knowledge at the time it’s posted. I make no claims on future results. All sports gamblers are advised to make your own picks and always bet within your budget,]
