NFL Week #12: Analysis and Picks

 

 

Three winning weeks in a row has been good.

39 wins, 16 losses.

I’ll take it.

After a horrid start to the season (all documented here), I’m now profitable on the season at +17 games over .500

As for the Westgate SuperContest (7 entries at $1,000 each), the picks spread across 7 teams went a combined 23-7-5.

Now, let’s get to this week’s picks, with a short summary of each selection:

WEEK 12 ANALYSIS AND PICKS:   FINAL UPDATE

 

[All wagers are juiced to -110 unless noted otherwise]

 

Full Game Bet: Dallas -12.5 (Risking $330 to win $300)

 

The Cowboys have spanked outclassed teams at home this season, winning all four such games by 20+ points (in addition to two more 20+ pt. wins on the road). QB D. Prescott is putting up MVP numbers and I don’t see Dallas taking the foot off the gas when holding the lead based on what’s happened this season. Moreover, the Cowboys defense has been opportunistic, forcing plenty of turnovers. Washington comes off a miserable 6-turnover performance at home and a humiliating loss to the Giants, who were beaten by this Dallas team a week earlier by 32 points. Who knows what mental state the Commanders will be in after that loss, now having just a few days to prepare for this once greatly anticipated rivalry, which has been dominated by the Cowboys lately. It seems everything lines up perfect for a Dallas blowout on Thanksgiving Day at home.

 

Full Game Bet: San Francisco -7 (Risking $220 to win $200)

 

San Francisco is fully healthy again and that’s bad for whoever they’re playing against. Here’s a chance for the favorites to put the NFC West division pretty much in the bag, with a win at Seattle which has been outscored by opponents this season and has looked very average over the past month. This line opened early in the week at -6 and then jumped to -7.5 based on news that QB G. Smith’s status was uncertain. As of late Wednesday, he’s now starting (elbow injury) but that particular ailment does seem susceptible to re-injury with any contact and we don’t know if he’s at anywhere near 100 percent. The Smith news finally settled the line on SFO -7 which has enough value to play (but not at -7.5). With the Eagles up next for the 49ers, I expect the locker room talk will focus on this as a critical game. I also like what I’m seeing from the SFO defense that last few games.  Laying -7 is the pick.

 

Two-Team Teaser: Dallas -6.5 / San Francisco -1 at -120 (Risking $360 to win $300)

 

Let’s add a 6-point teaser to the betting menu as Dallas needs to win by a touchdown and San Francisco basically must just win the game.

 

Full Game Bet: Chicago +3.5 (Risking $220 to win $200)

First Half: Chicago +1.5 at -105 (Risking $210 to win $200)

 

I took the Bears +8 last week on three related wagers, winning all three based on the suspicion the market hasn’t reacted to the fact the Bears are still playing hard. Chicago’s poor 3-8 record is somewhat misleading as the Bears have covered in three straight and four of five. Only one of the previous seven games was a blowout. With mobile QB J. Fields in the lineup, Chicago played well last week, led most of the game, and nearly upset Detroit on the road. This is a weaker opponent, with all due respect to Minnesota’s impressive run of wins prior to last week’s loss. Bears are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games. Last three games, Bears ran ball for 156-133-183 yards. I like those numbers with my money—getting points. So, I’ll take the points in both the 1H and full game in this NFC North division rivalry on MNF.

 

Full Game Bet: Denver -1.5 (Risking $220 to win $200)

 

This wager is based almost entirely on a fade of Cleveland rookie QB Thompson-Robinson. Though he’s 1-1 in his two starts this season, his numbers are dismal. Thompson-Robinson is just 20-37 for 130 passing combined (with 0 TDs, 3 INTs). Cleveland has scored 3 and 13 points, respectively in those two games. Playing on the road, versus an improved Denver defense looks like a solid BET AGAINST situation. Broncos have won their last four games, giving up just 17-9-22-20 points. So, the Browns aren’t likely to put up many points this week based on recent form. Obviously, Cleveland has one of the NFL’s best defenses and rushing attacks and that’s a serious concern when betting against them. I’m especially wary of backing a painfully inconsistent Broncos’ offense that continues to struggle no matter who they play. Denver is also +9 in turnovers during the course of its 4-game win streak, so they’ve been gifted plenty of opportunities. Normally, I like grind it out teams such as Cleveland that play good defense. Here, I don’t think that’s going to be enough to beat a Denver team that does just enough to win even though it’s not pretty, and may also be gaining confidence as a viable playoff contender. A win here gives the Broncos a winning record for the first time since QB. R. Wilson joined the team. I think they rise to the occasion.

 

First Half: Houston +.5 (half point) at -120 (Risking $240 to win $200)

 

I typically avoid a toss up game and this looks like a coin flip. But a few outliers are compelling enough to warrant a wager on the Texans, particularly in the first half. Houston (6-4) is at home playing their biggest game in years, as Jacksonville (7-3) is the opponent. First place is at stake. Houston dominated the first meeting 37-17 in Week 3. That doesn’t mean history repeats in this game, but we also can’t ignore the fact the Texans have won 10 of the last 11 games in this series. For whatever reason, Houston has dominated Jacksonville. Now that Houston actually has a decent team, we can be confident that trend may continue. The Jags are a good team and there are reasons to bet them–but not this week. As for my 1H wager, Houston led seven of its last eight games at halftime (and we’re getting a half point here). Texans have won last four home games by 24-7-2-5 points. Houston is 2-0 ATS as a home underdog. Last three weeks, Texans scored 30 points per game. Houston looks like a solid play here, especially in the first half.

 

Full Game Bet: Pittsburgh -1.5 (Risking $220 to win $200)

 

The Steelers stats are ugly, but somehow they win. Pittsburgh has been out-gained in every game this season, yet they’re 6-4 and a possible playoff team. I’m not sure that’s ever happened before. The one stat that does make me like the Steelers laying points on the road is the rushing attack in their last three games—Pittsburgh ran ball for 166-205-172 yards. Those are impressive numbers, yet the OC (Canada) was fired in midweek. QB Pickett doesn’t inspire confidence (surprisingly, he’s 13-9 ATS as a starter despite the lackluster stats) but if the Steelers can shake things up a bit with a new play-caller and can rush for anywhere near these recent numbers, that puts lots of pressure on Cincinnati to produce with an untested QB. With Burrow out of the season, backup QB Browning gets his first start. Steelers have allowed fourth fewest TDs in the league this season (just 18). Hence this looks like a good spot to fade the rookie with a team that forces turnovers and wins more often than not. Mike Tomlin gets underestimated by betting markets and has historically been a solid bet when not much is expected of his teams. Even though the Steelers are favored in this game, I think they should be laying at least a FG given the huge drop off in Cincinnati’s strength with Burrow sidelined. The Bengals are simply a different team with him gone and their #30 defensive ranking in YPG allowed compels me to put down a wager on the division road favorite — something I don’t do often.

 

Full Game Bet: Las Vegas +10 at -115 (Risking $230 to win $200)

 

I wasn’t planning to bet this game as the line opened at -9 and then dropped to -8, and then swung back to -10. When the number hit double digits (with slight extra vig) I pounced on Las Vegas. Since the midseason coaching change, Antonio Pierce has reinvigorated this Raiders who have covered in three straight and won 2/3. No doubt, Kansas City is a tough test, but since Las Vegas proved they can slow down the best offenses in the league on a good day (opponent Miami scored just 20 points last week) I’ll bank on them giving another better-then-expected effort. Many bettors expect Kansas City will bounce back after the loss to Philadelphia last week, but that’s made tougher by this contest being a road game, versus a division rival, on a short week. On the road this season, the Chiefs failed to cover when traveling as -8.5 favorites against NYJ and as -7 favorites vs. DEN, where they lost outright. I wouldn’t play this at anything less than +10. It’s rare to get this any points given the dynamics of each team, which are very different right now. I suspect all the pressure is on Kansas City and I’m not sure they’ll shake off defeat so easily.

 

Player Prop: Kicker Grupe (NOR) OVER 6.5 points at -130 (Risking $130 to win $100)

Player Prop: Kicker Koo (ATL) OVER 6.5 points at -135 (Risking $135 to win $100)

Player Prop: Kicker Gay (TB) OVER 6.5 points at -125 (Risking $125 to win $100)

Player Prop: Kicker McLaughlin (IND) OVER 6.5 points at even (Risking $100 to win $100)

Player Prop: Kicker Santos (CHI) OVER 5.5 points at -135 (Risking $135 to win $100)

Player Prop: Kicker Carlson (LV) OVER 5.5 points (Risking $220 to win $200)

 

I’ve written previously about my affinity for kicking props. Here’s the top picks of the week — with a larger bet than usual on the Raiders’ kicker (Carlson) who continues being undervalued by the prop market.

 

Full Game Bet: Indianapolis -2.5 (Risking $220 to win $200)

Full Game Total: Indianapolis/Tampa Bay OVER 44.5 ($220 to win $200)

Team Total:  Indianapolis OVER 21.5 at -120 (Risking $240 to win $200)

Player Prop: Pittman WR (IND) OVER 69.5 receiving yards (Risking $220 to win $200)

 

The Colts are 5-5 and should be 6-4 were it not for some atrocious officiating in the Cleveland game (3 weeks ago–still pissed). The market may still be underestimating Indy, which is 6-4 ATS. Of course, the same can be said for Tampa Bay, which is an astounding 7-3 ATS (but just 4-6 SU). Initially, for these reasons, this game was a pass for me. However, upon doing more research, the situation strongly favors the home team, especially laying less than a FG. This is the Bucs’ 4th road game in five weeks, and they’re coming off punishing loss in San Francisco. Tampa could very well be gassed out here, especially when facing a rested and ready Colts team coming off their bye, and comfortably at home where oddly enough they haven’t been as successful as on the road (Colts are 1-4 at home, but 4-1 on the road—-go figure). Added motivation for the Colts to perform well here, who are riding a two-game win streak. Tampa ranks dead last in rushing offense, which will place all the pressure on the arm of QB B. Mayfield, who has played reasonably well. I expect lots of passing by both teams and a high-scoring game. I also like the WR Michael Pittman prop to go over in yardage (and receptions, if you want to bet that, too). Pittman has caught 8 passes in three straight games. During the Colts’ win streak, he’s been targeted 12-8-13 times, respectively. So, look for him to figure prominently in the offense. I settled on four wagers — Colts, team total OVER 21.5, game total OVER 44.5, and OVER on Pittman. Now, all I want is a big day by the Colts offense, facing a #30 ranked Bucs’ pass defense.

 

—–THIS CONCLUDES THIS WEEK’S PICKS—–

 

 

WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST PICKS – WEEK 12

Now, I’m heading into the homestretch in the NFL handicapping contest.

SuperContest attracted 1,301 entries this year. I have seven entries–costing $1,000 each. All seven tickets are very live nearly 2/3rds into the regular season. The contest will pay the top-20 spots, with $200,000 going to first place.

Overall, the seven entries are a combined +87 games over.500. After a perfect 35-0 week previously, this past week went 23 wins, 7 losses, 5 pushes. The Kansas City Chiefs loss on MNF was a killer. That cost us 7 wins, but some other games were lucky wins, so they say it all breaks even.

One ticket is in 14th place right now (meaning, in-the-money if the contest ended today). Four tickets are in the top-100. All seven tickets are in the top-250. Ideally, I want to have 2-3 working tickets late in the season so as to diversify risk. The most anyone else has in the top-100 is 2. We have double that.

I’m 4.5 games behind the contest leader, but then there’s a rapid decline in points. Anyone in the top-100 who can go 66 percent the rest of the season may win it, and will certainly finish in the top-5.

I can’t complain about our position in the contest. I don’t want to exaggerate, but I don’t think anyone else has seven live tickets. I’ll let math people debate if it’s better to be in first place right now, or have seven live tickets within striking distance.

I’ve learned a lot from this experience. Let’s continue this great run!

 

 

Here’s this week’s contest picks, along with the W-L records on each ticket:

[Note that these lines differ from above because they’re based on the close as of Wednesday night at Westgate]

1. Ticket #3 is live in running for mini contest, so in case the other tickets do poorly, we have an “insurance” ticket to put in to get one more shot.  Will be recorded at deadline on Saturday.
2. San Francisco is -7 at many sportsbooks, but was -7.5 in the Westgate contest, so I passed.
3. I don’t like this week’s card.  Dallas is my highest level of confidence.  However, the limited choices means playing numbers and taking teams in positive trends.
4. UPDATE:  Read this if you want to know the reasoning behind the picks this week. obviously this was a huge week for us because we have a shot at winning some serious money in the mini contests. the problem was it came at a horrible time with the Thanksgiving Day games. that necessitated putting in six of the seven tickets early. I was strongly considering taking all four favorites (they went 3-1) but we had unfavorable lines on to the games and instead we just went with Detroit and Dallas which split (1-1). the Detroit loss was devastating and probably will end up costing us some money here. but we do have this extra ticket that I’m turning in right now and these picks may seem a little bit unusual so let me explain. I regret that we have Atlanta but that’s already stuck on six of the tickets I’m not going to use them again but I remain convinced that the Bears are a solid play at +3.5 when the line is now 3. the Steelers are the better team than Cincinnati with a first-time starting quarterback. the Rams line has moved two points playing at Arizona and the Rams did dominate the Cardinals in their first meeting. New England seems like a ridiculous pick given how badly they’re playing but the line is only -3 here and Matt Lessinger and I were talking that there’s something fishy about this because the line is actually moved up to three and a half so we’re catching the three and we think that there’s going to be a decent Patriots performance here. and finally coming up with the final pick I realize that Tampa Bay is going to be gassed after playing four or five games on the road and coming off the San Francisco loss and they’re facing the colts in Indianapolis which is rested and five and five and still playing in playoff contention so the feeling here is that the colts will rise to the occasion and beat a exhausted tampa team laying two and a half. I also like Houston given they’ve historically dominated that Series against Jacksonville winning 10 of 11 but the line is probably correct on this game. So these pics are a bit different than the other six obviously I wish I could we can figure them all and I deeply regret the Detroit pic. if we can somehow go four and one we may be live to catch some money and even three and two won’t win us any of the many contest but keeps Us alive very much on the season-long contest.

 

TICKET 1 (34-17-4)
DET -7.5
DAL -12.5
ATL +1
LV +9
CHI +3.5

TICKET 2 (34-19-2)
DET -7.5
DAL -12.5
ATL +1
LV +9
CHI +3.5

TICKET 3 (34-20-1)
IND -2.5
NWE -3
PIT -1.5
LAR +1
CHI +3.5

TICKET 4 (32-20-3)
DET -7.5
DAL -12.5
ATL +1
LV +9
CHI +3.5

TICKET 5 (32-22-1)
DET -7.5
DAL -12.5
ATL +1
LV +9
CHI +3.5

TICKET 6 (30-22-3)
DET -7.5
DAL -12.5
ATL +1
LV +9
CHI +3.5

TICKET 7 (32-21-2)
DET -7.5
DAL -12.5
ATL +1
LV +9
CHI +3.5

 

SURVIVOR CONTEST STRATEGY — WEEK 12

Here’s my latest article at SurvivorSweat.com on the $9.4 million Circa contest:  Click Below.

READ HERE

 

 

*****************************************************
2023 NFL WAGERING RECORD
116 — Wins
99 — Losses
3 — Pushes
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $10,755.
Net Gain/Loss: + $755.
Last Week: 9 wins – 7 losses (+ $360.)

11-Year Comprehensive Record (2012-present):
CLICK HERE
*****************************************************

Last Week’s Picks and Results

 

Teaser: Miami -6 / San Francisco -5.5 at -120 (Risking $360 to win $300) …. WON
First Half: Washington -4.5 (Risking $220 to win $200) …. LOST
First Half: Philadelphia +1.5 (Risking $220 to win $200) — MNF …. LOST
Game Side: Chicago +8 (Risking $220 to win $200) …. WON
First-Half: Chicago +4.5 (Risking $220 to win $200) …. WON
Team Total: Chicago OVER 19.5 points at -115 (Risking $115 to win $100) …. WON
Game Side: LA Rams +1 (Risking $220 to win $200) ….. WON
Game Total: [SNF] Minnesota / Denver UNDER 43 (Risking $220 to win $200) …. WON
Game Side:  Cleveland -2 vs. Pittsburgh (risking $220 to win $200) …. WON
First-Half Team Total: LA Chargers OVER 10.5 points (Risking $165 to win $150) …. LOST
Full Game Team Total: LA Chargers OVER 23.5 points (Risking $165 to win $150) …. LOST
Kicker Prop: Santos (CHI) OVER 5.5 points at -130 (Risking $260 to win $200) …. WON
Kicker Prop: Carlson (LV) OVER 5.5 points at EVEN (Risking $200 to win $200) …. WON
Kicker Prop: Folk (TEN) OVER 5.5 points at -120 (Risking $240 to win $200) …. LOST
Kicker Prop: Zuerlein (NYJ) OVER 5.5 points at -105 (Risking $210 to win $200) …. LOST
Game Total: [TNF] Cincinnati / Baltimore UNDER 46 (Risking $220 to win $200)….LOST