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Posted by on Oct 11, 2014 in Blog | 0 comments

My NFL Wagers (Week 6)

 

nfl-wagers

NOLAN DALLA:  2014 NFL SEASON RECORD (through end of Week 5)

40 WINS – 32 LOSSES — 4 PUSHES

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $10,450.

NET GAIN/LOSS:  + $450.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  4 – 5 – 1 

 

Coming off another good week, with close to $2,000 in winnings.  The video plays are performing even better than the posted written wagers, which seems strange since those are given out earlier in the week.  Anyway, the video picks have gone a stellar 28-15 against the spread.  Videos are made each Friday night.  The write ups like you are reading now are usually released late on Saturday.  CHECK OUT THIS WEEK’S VIDEO HERE

It’s nice to be in the black again after a poor start early in the season.  Let’s keep the winning streak alive and get straight to this week’s action.  Seventeen plays are listed.

 

 

THIS WEEK’S PICKS (all plays are -110 unless noted otherwise):

 

Atlanta -3 (-115) vs. Chicago — $1,150 to win $1,000 <<<BEST BET>>>

This is one of the best bets of the season, with Atlanta demonstrating they’re a different team playing home versus away.  Falcons should be favored by more in this spot, especially given the Bears defensive injury situation.  The entire starting linebacker corps is out for Chicago, which spells trouble facing a Ryan-led offense which produces plenty of yards and points at home.  Lay the -3 now before it moves to -3.5, which could happen near game time.

 

Teaser:  Tampa Bay +9 with Seattle -2 — $660 to win $600 <<<BEST BET>>>

Favorable spots for both teaser teams — Tampa Bay and Seattle this week — crossing the key numbers in NFL wagering.  Bucs have played well two straight road games and now return home versus opponent playing their third straight road game.  Baltimore always seems to struggle offensively on the road, so it’s unlikely they win by double digits.  Tampa Bay offense also looks more solid with QB Glennon getting the start, producing 58 points their last two games.  I see a close contest when the +9 should provide a nice cushion.  In the other matchup, I like backing top-notch teams coming off lackluster performances, and this applies to Seattle which played a messy game at Washington on MNF last week (lots of penalties, dropped passes, etc.).  Seahawks seem almost unbeatable at home, and now play an opponent they won’t take lightly.  Dallas has shocking won four straight, but that should end here.  Their strength is running the ball and now they face one of the NFL’s best run defenses.  I’ll tease the better and more motivated team under a FG.

 

Tampa Bay +3 vs. Baltimore — $440 to win $400

Tampa Bay Team Total OVER 20 — $330 to win $300

First Half:  Tampa Bay Team Total OVER 9.5 (-120) — $360 to win $300

Bucs playing well offensively at the moment, and are now back at home where I expect some points to be scored.  Tough spot for Ravens playing another road game after doing nothing offensively in the previous game.  Some concern about Bucs defense which is ranked near dead last, but Ravens sporadic offense might cure that.

 

Buffalo +3 vs. New England (-120) — $480 to win $400

First Half:  Buffalo +.5 — $220 to win $200

Buffalo comes off big win and is now back at home facing Patriots who might be without QB Brady.  That would put a rookie in the starting role, a huge advantage in this key AFC East matchup.  Even if Brady starts, he’s likely not 100 percent.  QB Orton’s showing has lifted the offense somewhat and Buffalo may be the more solid team at the moment, especially on defense.  I’ll take the home divisional dog getting the FG, which will probably drop to PICK if it’s announced that Brady isn’t starting.  Also like the advantage of the half point in the first half.

 

Pittsburgh Team Total OVER 23 — $660 to win $600 <<<BEST BET>>>

Steelers have become a passing team and with heavy injuries to the Browns secondary, Pittsburgh should score points.  Even when healthier, Browns surrendered 30, 24, 23, and 28 in their four games, and there’s no reason to expect less scoring now given all those injuries.  First game between these two teams was a 30-27 shootout, and we can probably expect the same this week.

 

Miami +3 vs. Green Bay — $330 to win $300

Miami Team Total OVER 22.5 — $220 to win $200

Betting on the rested home team coming off a big game in London where they finally turned the offense loose, now playing versus average defensive team.  Miami’s scoring prospects will actually be helped by lots of extra time to prepare.  Even if Green Bay is effective on offense that could allow a lot of cheap yards to Miami, one of the motives of playing the team total to go OVER.  Really like this number being slightly under what are a couple of key numbers — 23 and 24.  One other stat — Miami averages more YPG than Green Bay.  The defense also allows less YPG than Green Bay.  And Miami is getting +3 at home?  I’ll take it.

 

Denver / NY Jets UNDER 48 — $330 to win $300

Given the Jets abysmal quarterback problems, points may be tough to come by for the home team.  However, I’ll also count on an off day for the visitor, playing an early East Coast game and the site of Broncos miserable Super Bowl appearance back in February.  Jets run defense certainly capable of slowing down Denver, allowing just 83 YPG.  But the pass defense has been awful, which is certainly a concern.  Jets do lead the league in sacks, however.  So, Jets game plan is likely to be based on the ground attack and slowing down the pace of the game.  Higher than average total for a Jets game, so I’ll play the UNDER.

 

Minnesota -1.5 vs. Detroit — $330 to win $300

Line moved from pick to Vikings being listed as a slight favorite.  Extra rest and a home game should help the Vikings here, especially getting Bridgewater back in the starting role.  Meanwhile, Lions were exposed last week and limp into this game with some injuries (WR Johnson is questionable).  I look for Vikings to give a solid effort here to get back to the .500 mark.

 

St. Louis +3.5 (-120) vs. San Francisco — $360 to win $300

I was going to pass on this game, then the line shifted to +3.5.  That’s enough to move my lean on the home dog Rams to a play.  San Francisco still hasn’t put together a solid game this season.  The were sloppy in last week’s win versus Kansas City and now go on the road after two straight at home.  Rams’ offense seems to be in good shape.  It’s the defense which has hurt the Rams the last few games.  I look for a close game there the field goal-plus could come into play.

 

First Half Team Total:  Cincinnati OVER 12.5 (-125) — $500 to win $400

First Quarter:  Chicago / Atlanta OVER 9.5 (-150) — $300 to win $200

First Quarter:  Green Bay / Miami OVER 9.5 (-130) — $260 to win $200

First Quarter:  NY Giants / Philadelphia OVER 9.5 (-120) — $360 to win $300

 

 

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:     11 wins, 6- losses, 1 push (+$1,955)

Chicago +3 vs. Carolina (-115) — $345 to win $300 ……….LOST

Tennessee -2 vs. Cleveland — $330 to win $300 ……….LOST

St. Louis +6.5 vs. Philadelphia — $440 to win $400 ……….WON

First Quarter:  St. Louis +.5 (-120) — $360 to win $300 ……….LOST

First Half:  Detroit Team Total OVER 12.5 (-115) — $460 to win $400 ……….WON

New Orleans -10 vs. Tampa Bay — $550 to win $500 ……….LOST

Houston +6.5 vs. Dallas — $550 to win $500 <<<BEST BET>>> ……….WON

First Quarter:  Houston +.5 (-110) — $330 to win $300 ……….WON

Baltimore/Indianapolis OVER 49 — $33o to win $300 ……….LOST

Jacksonville Team Total UNDER 20.5 — $440 to win $400 ……….WON

First Quarter:  Over 9.5 (-125) — Arizona/Denver — $375 to win $300 ……….WON

San Francisco -5 vs. Kansas City — $660 to win $600 <<<BEST BET>>> ……….PUSH

Kansas City/San Francisco UNDER 44 — $330 to win $300 ……….WON

Cincinnati/New England OVER 46 — $550 to win $500 ……….WON

Cincinnati Team Total OVER 23.5 — $330 to win $300 ……….LOST

New England Team Total OVER 22.5 — $330 to win $300 ……….WON

Seattle -7 vs. Washington — $440 to win $400 ……….WON

TEASER:  San Diego -.5 with San Francisco +1 — $660 to win $600 <<<BEST BET>>> ……….WON

 

 

 

 

……………

 

PENDING FUTURES WAGERS:

NY GIANTS OVER 7.5 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000 — nicely ahead of pace as Giants are 3-2

DETROIT LIONS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000 — about par as Lions are 3-2

MINNESOTA VIKINGS OVER 6 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000 — about par as Vikings are 2-3

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS UNDER 8 WINS (-135) — Wagering $1,350 to win $1,000 — ahead of pace as Chiefs are 2-3

CLEVELAND BROWNS UNDER 7 WINS (-150) — Wagering $1,500 to win $1,000  <<<BEST BET>>> — behind pace as Browns are 2-2

DALLAS COWBOYS TO MISS THE PLAYOFFS (-250) — Wagering $1,250 to win $500  — in serious trouble as Cowboys are 4-1

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (-220) — Wagering $2,200 to win $1,000   <<<BEST BET>>> — behind pace as Saints are 2-3

 

……………

NOLAN DALLA:  2013 NFL SEASON RECORD (FINAL RESULTS)

108 WINS – 84 LOSSES — 6 PUSHES

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

ENDING BANKROLL:  $14,702.

NET GAIN:  + $4,702.

……………

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 NFL SEASON RECORD (FINAL RESULTS)

98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

ENDING BANKROLL:  $13,460.

NET GAIN:  + $3,460

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