My NFL Wagers (Week 5)

 

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2014 NFL SEASON RECORD (through end of Week 4)

29 WINS – 26 LOSSES — 3 PUSHES

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $8,495

NET GAIN/LOSS:  – $1,505

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  2 – 5 – 0

A quick note about the picks you see here (in writing) versus the picks on video.  You may notice the plays (and W-L record) are not the same.

The video is made on Friday nights.  I make picks against the spread based on that night’s spread and totals.  Also, I comment only on sides and totals in the video.  So far, my record is 18 wins and 10 losses, on video.  Oddly enough, that’s much better than the written plays have performed.  You can see the latest segment HERE.

The write ups are normally done on Saturday nights, using numbers that will be as close as possible to the numbers on actual game day.  Some lines are not out until Sunday morning — such as team totals, first quarter lines, and so forth.  For this reason, I sometimes post a last-minute update about one hour before the Sunday games begin.

So, that’s the explanation on the video and writing segments and the reason why you see two different records.  Just to be clear, I haven’t picked anything that was contradictory, in other words, flip-flopping a game.  I have passed on a few games and then added other plays.  But all the selections are somewhat consistent.

I booked a very small win last week.  My “Best Bets” are having a rough go of things, however.

Last week, two losses were devastating.  Pittsburgh’s ass cracking meltdown against Tampa Bay produced a $1,260 swing.  Then, in the San Diego-Jacksonville game (I had the UNDER), the game was just about to sail below 44.5 points, but then the Chargers inexplicably kicked a late field goal leading by 16 points with 1:15 left in the game, facing a 4th and 2.  Ridiculous way to lose that game, costing me another $840 swing.  Those two losses hurt badly.

On to this week, with 19 wagers.

 

THIS WEEK’S PICKS (all plays are -110 unless noted otherwise):

 

Chicago +3 vs. Carolina (-115) — $345 to win $300

These two 2-2 teams are struggling badly at the moment, but Chicago is 2-0 SU and ATS playing on road this season, also with the better offense.  Huge advantage for Bears in rushing differential — almost a full yard per carry more than Panthers, who have injuries.  In what should be a close game where points are at a premium, I’ll take the field goal.

 

Tennessee -2 vs. Cleveland — $330 to win $300

Sometimes, the right play is to bet on the team with its back against the wall, and that certainly applies to Titans this week, who have looked dreadful their last three games.  And they play the perfect opponent, which is uncharacteristically favored in the power rankings (3 points given for home field).  I’ll back the Titans and look for a gutsy performance from Jake Locker, who reportedly still gets the start.

 

St. Louis +6.5 vs. Philadelphia — $440 to win $400

First Quarter:  St. Louis +.5 (-120) — $360 to win $300

Eagles offensive line troubles were on full display last week, which does not bode well versus a rested opponent with a solid defensive front.  Philadelphia couldn’t rush the ball and gave QB Foles poor pass protection in SFO.  In fact, Eagles have yet to put a solid game together for four quarters, so far.  Meanwhile, St. Louis has been competitive its last two games and gets just enough points this week to entice a wager.  Will also fade the prospect of Philadelphia being ready early, taking the half-point in the opening quarter.

 

First Half:  Detroit Team Total OVER 12.5 (-115) — $460 to win $400

Quite a low number given Lions playing at home, versus what could be a shaky opponent.  Key number here is to catch a win on the 13, which gives us solid value.  Tough spot for Buffalo coming off two straight losses and now a back-to-back road game.  WR Johnson could be out, which is a factor, but still plenty of weapons for Lions as the home team.

 

New Orleans -10 vs. Tampa Bay — $550 to win $500

Tough to figure out what’s wrong with Saints, but they’ve still be a beast at home, going a perfect 9-0 last two seasons (8-0-1 ATS).  Different team at home, coming off humiliation, in must win game, against opponent playing second straight on the road after a huge upset win.  This all spells a New Orleans blowout. 

 

Houston +6.5 vs. Dallas — $550 to win $500 <<<BEST BET>>>

First Quarter:  Houston +.5 (-110) — $330 to win $300

Both teams are 3-1, but I’ll take the better defense getting what appears to be too many points.  Why isn’t this line -3.5 or perhaps -4 at most?  Hard to understand the lack of respect for Houston.  I’m as surprised as anyone by Dallas, especially after dominating New Orleans last week.  But the Cowboys won’t be able to run the ball quite so well against a much better defense.  In what should be a close game, I’ll take the points and make this a “Best Bet” since it appears to be way out of line.  Dallas was dog in both home games this season, is now a big favorite, where they’ve traditionally performed poorly.

 

Baltimore/Indianapolis OVER 49 — $33o to win $300

Two teams that are rolling right now, playing semi-indoors on the rubber grass.  Seems like all the Colts games go OVER, so I’ll continue to ride the train.

 

Jacksonville Team Total UNDER 20.5 — $440 to win $400

Jacksonville hasn’t scored 20 points in a game all season.  So, why is this total 20.5?  Shouldn’t it be, at most, 19.5?  Enough value here to expect more of the same, even if it’s against the flaky Steelers.

 

First Quarter:  Over 9.5 (-125) — Arizona/Denver — $375 to win $300

A Denver home game plays into a solid OVER in the opening frame, with Broncos always capable of scoring early, combined with a low number with reasonable vig.

 

San Francisco -5 vs. Kansas City — $660 to win $600 <<<BEST BET>>>

Kansas City/San Francisco UNDER 44 — $330 to win $300

Rare for me to back 49ers, but they enjoy the perfect spot here, with two straight home games, coming off a strong performance.  Lots of respect for Kansas City which covered three straight, but this is a horrible situation for them, coming off the huge upset home win on MNF.  I think Chiefs will be flat here, and are probably outclassed on defense.  I also look for Kansas City to have trouble scoring, which plays into lots of running by San Francisco, favoring the UNDER.

 

Cincinnati/New England OVER 46 — $550 to win $500

Cincinnati Team Total OVER 23.5 — $330 to win $300

New England Team Total OVER 22.5 — $330 to win $300

I’m looking for a shootout on SNF with two experienced offenses with lots of weapons, especially so from Patriots coming off the embarrassing road loss.  As one of the worst offenses in the league stats wise right now, New England is likely to change a few things and run lots of hurry-up offense to keep Cincinnati’s solid defense off guard.  Meanwhile, Patriots don’t seem to be able to stop anybody, unless its a really bad team.  Lots of factors point tot he OVER here, and I’ll also reduce my variance a little by playing both teams OVER numbers which are just a little low.  I love capturing a win on the 24 for both teams.  Figure at least one, if not both, hits the 24 mark.

 

Seattle -7 vs. Washington — $440 to win $400

Washington in shambles at the moment, with controversies, injuries, and what I believe is still an unproven coaching staff.  Normally, I play home dogs in this spot.  But Seattle won’t be taking this game lightly on MNF, especially after their last road game, which was a loss.  Until Washington proves something to me, I’ll fade them and continue to file them in the same class with Oakland and Jacksonville.  Lots of solid cappers will be on Washington, but I see it the other way, with Seattle not taking this game lightly because it’s MNF.

 

TEASER:  San Diego -.5 with San Francisco +1 — $660 to win $600 <<<BEST BET>>>

Hard to see high-flying Chargers losing at home to lowly NY Jets, coming off their two home losses.  I’ll also back the 49ers in what amounts to a “just win the game” situation.  I’ve been burned with Teasers this season, but will stick with it as long as I see value.

 

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:     7 wins – 5 losses – 2 pushes  (+$60)

Oakland +4 vs. Miami — Wagering $330 to win $300     ……….LOST

First Quarter — Oakland +.5 (-135) — Wagering $270 to win $200     ……….WON

First Quarter — Green Bay / Chicago OVER 9.5 (-130) — Wagering $390 to win $300     ……….WON

Houston -3 vs. Buffalo — Wagering $220 to win $200     ……….WON

Buffalo / Houston UNDER 42.5 — Wagering $400 to win $400     ……….WON

Teaser:  Indianapolis -1.5 with Pittsburgh -1 — Wagering $660 to win $600   <<<BEST BET>>>     ……….LOST

Detroit / NY Jets UNDER 44.5 — Wagering $660 to win $600     ……….WON

Jacksonville / San Diego UNDER 44.5 — Wagering $440 to win $400     ……….LOST

First Quarter — Jacksonville +3 (-105) — Wagering $315 to win $300     ……….PUSH

Atlanta /Minnesota UNDER 47 — Wagering $660 to win $600   <<<BEST BET>>>     ……….LOST

Philadelphia +5 at San Francisco — Wagering $330 to win $300     ……….PUSH

New Orleans -3 at Dallas — Wagering $550 to win $500     ……….LOST

New England at Kansas City OVER 45 — Wagering $330 to win $300     ……….WON

Team Total in First Half — Kansas City OVER 10 points()-120) — Wagering $330 to win $300     ……….WON

 

……………

 

PENDING FUTURES WAGERS:

NY GIANTS OVER 7.5 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000 — ahead of pace as Giants are 2-2

DETROIT LIONS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000 — way behind pace as Lions are 3-1

MINNESOTA VIKINGS OVER 6 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000 — on pace for a push as Vikings are 2-3

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS UNDER 8 WINS (-135) — Wagering $1,350 to win $1,000 — on pace for a push as Chiefs are 2-2

CLEVELAND BROWNS UNDER 7 WINS (-150) — Wagering $1,500 to win $1,000  <<<BEST BET>>> — slightly ahead of pace as Browns are 1-2

DALLAS COWBOYS TO MISS THE PLAYOFFS (-250) — Wagering $1,250 to win $500  — Getting worried, as Cowboys are 3-1

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (-220) — Wagering $2,200 to win $1,000   <<<BEST BET>>> — Looking bad as Saints are 1-3

……………

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2013 NFL SEASON RECORD (FINAL RESULTS)

108 WINS – 84 LOSSES — 6 PUSHES

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

ENDING BANKROLL:  $14,702.

NET GAIN:  + $4,702.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  21–20–2

……………

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 NFL SEASON RECORD (FINAL RESULTS)

98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

ENDING BANKROLL:  $13,460.

NET GAIN:  + $3,460

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK