My NFL Wagers (Week 4)
NOLAN DALLA: 2014 NFL SEASON RECORD (through end of Week 3)
22 WINS – 21 LOSSES — 1 PUSHES
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $8,435
NET GAIN/LOSS: – $1,565
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 2 – 3 – 0
NFL Week 3 was a nice rebound after the Week 2 disaster — with 11 wins and 5 losses. Still lots of ground to make up and a long season ahead. This looks like a nice card with several playable games and potential wagers. I’ve made 14 in all, so far.
For a video discussion of all of this week’s NFL games, CLICK HERE (30 minutes)
THIS WEEK’S PICKS (all plays are -110 unless noted otherwise):
Oakland +4 vs. Miami — Wagering $330 to win $300
First Quarter — Oakland +.5 (-135) — Wagering $270 to win $200
This game is being played in London, which makes it a road game for both teams. Oakland should rightly be the dog, but not by this much. Oakland has covered in both road games so far, coming within a touchdown of winning at both NYJ and NWE. Softer opponent this week going through some internal trouble as Tannehill is about to be pulled at QB unless his play improves fast. Raiders defense allowing 6 less PPG. Smaller wager if you can only find +3.5, but there are still some +4 numbers out there, which makes this an attractive wager on the live dog. Figuring with so much uncertainty with the travel and lots of questions on both teams, the points could be a factor. In a related wager, I’ll take Oakland in the 1Q getting the half point.
First Quarter — Green Bay / Chicago OVER 9.5 (-130) — Wagering $390 to win $300
1st Quarter total should probably be 10, given the game total at 50.5. Both quarterbacks are able to put up yards and points quick, which plays into early scoring. Running games for these two teams have been non-existent, which leads me to believe we’ll see lots of passing. Bears defense still impacted by multiple injuries — which didn’t show up last week against Geno Smith, but is likely to be a problem versus Aaron Rodgers. Tempting to play the game total OVER, as well. But the best value appears to be capturing a win on the 10+ in the opening frame.
Houston -3 vs. Buffalo — Wagering $220 to win $200
Buffalo / Houston UNDER 42.5 — Wagering $400 to win $400
Looks to be a low scoring game given the non-flashy offenses. Serious questions starting to surface about Manuel at QB for Bills and his ability to throw deep. I don’t see Buffalo enjoying much success against this defense, one of the league’s best. Particularly like Texans here coming off the loss and back home after two road games. QB Fitzpatrick also has some extra motivation, facing his old team. Bills might have been expo0sed last week — that loss to SDI wasn’t as close as the score indicated. Looks to be a flat spot for the visitor, lacking a deep passing game. Houston may get back RB Foster this week as well, which means they’ll be able to control the call and the clock better (two 100+ yard rushing games so far, but missed last week). I’ll lay a FG and also back the UNDER.
Teaser: Indianapolis -1.5 with Pittsburgh -1 — Wagering $660 to win $600 <<<BEST BET>>>
Two solid homes favorites playing what appears to be badly outmatched opponents coming off embarrassing losses. Sometimes, that sets up a favorable betting situation with extra value, but I’m not sure linesmakers have reacted enough to the dismal offensive showing by both of these road teams. Both are playing away for the second straight week. Hard to foresee Tampa solving all its problems in a week, even with the 10-day layoff, given how anemic they’ve looked offensively, and also how dreadful that effort was in Atlanta when they were losing 56-0 at one point. Not enough talent on Tampa to pull the upset here on the road in a tough place to play. Also favor backing Indy which is only 1-2, but could be 3-0 with a break or two. Colts almost had a bye last week playing at Jacksonville, while Tennessee has been destroyed in two consecutive games. Bad reports on QB Locker, who is starting to raise serious doubts. Home favorites might not get the game cover, but I’ll tease them down to low numbers and hope there’s no surprises.
Detroit / NY Jets UNDER 44.5 — Wagering $660 to win $600
Inexplicably high number here given the situation. Jets passing woes are self-evident after last week, with Geno Smith apparently an interception away from being benched. Jets have moved the ball well, but struggle in red zone. Given what we saw on MNF, I can’t foresee the Jets offensive playbook getting any more creative. Game plan will be to run the ball and win with defense. In fact, these two defenses are ranked near the top of the NFL through three weeks, both with excellent defensive fronts. Detroit also struggled in 2 of 3 games offensively this season, including its only road game. Both offenses scoring average of about 20 PPG, while allowing about the same — which tells me this total should be closer to 40. I don’t see where the points are going to come from — line is warped by Detroit’s strong offensive reputation at home. On the road, they’re much more average, especially versus strong defenses. Looking for an ugly low-scoring game.
Jacksonville / San Diego UNDER 44.5 — Wagering $440 to win $400
First Quarter — Jacksonville +3 (-105) — Wagering $315 to win $300
This reminds me a lot of last week’s OAK-NWE game where the superior home team just went through the motions against a vastly outclassed opponent. I see the same thing happening here, with San Diego off two big wins and now returning home against the NFL’s worst team, by far. Jacksonville starts Bortles at QB this week, who gets his first game on the road against one of the league’s hottest teams. I can’t see many points coming from Jacksonville, when means the scoring will have to come from the Chargers. 44.5 appears to be a pretty high number, even with a defense that’s been as bad as the Jaguars. I’ll speculate again on another ugly game, won easily by the Chargers, that lands somewhere in the mid-30s…..As for 1st Quarter bet, this is purely math based. San Diego likely must produce a touchdown to cover this number in the first 15 minutes, and I’m guessing they might be a little flat. Low juice, getting the push on 3, plus the road dog likely to at least be focused for the first half makes this a compulsory wager for anyone who’s a contrarian seeking value.
Atlanta /Minnesota UNDER 47 — Wagering $660 to win $600 <<<BEST BET>>>
Yet another attractive UNDER with one team seemingly incapable of scoring points (Minnesota) versus an opponent who often struggles outdoors (Atlanta). With a whopping 47 points projected, this turns into a Best Bet for several reasons. First, rookie Bridgewater gets the start, always a tempting prospect to fade. Game plan should be scaled down a bit, which means Minnesota will have to run the ball effectively, which they’ve been unable to do since Peterson’s suspension. Minnesota has clearly turned into a solid UNDER team, coached by Mike Zimmer. They held Saints to just 20 last week. I also like fading teams off a huge and easy home win going on the road, which applies to the Falcons. It won’t be as easy this time. Way too high a total given the way Vikings’ games are playing this season, especially with a new QB.
Philadelphia +5 at San Francisco — Wagering $330 to win $300
Too many points to give a 3-0 team that’s very difficult to prepare for. Eagles’ pose some serious problems for San Francisco. Also, what’s to suggest there’s any home field advantage for 49ers? They’ve looked bad at times in each of their home games, not yet fitting into the confines of the new stadium. Surely, that will come, but I’m guessing it takes place later in the season — not against a 3-0 teams that rolls up yards and points. Of course, Eagles have struggled in the first half of each game. I expect some adjustments to be made where we won’t see them fall behind as in the first three weeks. Valid concern with Philadelphia’s offensive line, which appears to be in shambles — but so far that hasn’t been an issue as the offense is putting up 34 PPG. Perhaps some overreaction to injuries here. Looks like a tough, close, toss-up game. Line should be -3 max. Plenty of value with Philadelphia.
New Orleans -3 at Dallas — Wagering $550 to win $500
Contrarian play here on visiting Saints, who have lost 7 straight on the road. Perfect spot for them here, however as they catch Cowboys who’s record is a bit deceiving — winners of two straight. Dallas defense has looked better than it is, pumped by facing three sub-par QBs this seas– Kaepernick, Locker, and backup for Rams. Now, Cowboys have to face Drew Brees after a subpar performance where receivers dropped lots of balls. Clearly, New Orleans has been dismal on the road. But this appears to be a break out game against the perfect opponent, in a dome like atmosphere. Could be a high scoring game where the points won’t matter. I’m taking the superior motivated team playing against an opponent who’s 2-1 record I’m not buying.
New England at Kansas City OVER 45 — Wagering $330 to win $300
Team Total in First Half — Kansas City OVER 10 points()-120) — Wagering $330 to win $300
Four words — Monday Night Football = OVER. Simple as that…..Also like the home dog to produce some points, at least in first half. I’m not sold on New England’s defense, and Chiefs offense has looked decent the last two games. Running game has returned and in front of home crowd, I think there’s enough motivation here for Kansas City to at least match 10 in the first 30 minutes.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS: 11 wins / 5 losses (+$2,150)
NY Giants + 2 vs. Houston — Risking $660 to win $600 ……….WON
TEASER: NY Giants (to +8) with Cincinnati -.5 — Risking $880 to win $800 <<<BEST BET>>> ……….WON
Buffalo -1 vs. San Diego — Risking $330 to win $300 ……….LOST
Minnesota / New Orleans OVER 49 — Risking $330 to win $300 ……….LOST
Baltimore -2 vs. Cleveland — Risking $220 to win $200 ……….WON
Green Bay / Detroit OVER 52 — Risking $330 to win $300 ……….LOST
Jacksonville +7 vs. Indianapolis — Wagering $330 to win $300 ……….LOST
Oakland / New England UNDER 47 — Wagering $220 to win $200 ……….WON
Arizona +3 vs. San Francisco — Wagering $330 to win $300 ……….WON
Denver / Seattle UNDER 48.5 — Wagering $330 to win $300 ……….WON
Pittsburgh / Carolina OVER 41 — Wagering $440 to win $400 ………..WON
NY Jets -2 vs. Chicago — Wagering $330 to win $300 ………..LOST
NY Jets / Chicago OVER 45.5 — Wagering $330 to win $300 ………..WON
FIRST HALF: St. Louis +.5 (-125) — Wagering $250 to win $200 ……….WON
FIRST HALF: Washington +3 (-115) — Wagering $230 to win $200 ……….WON
FIRST HALF: Kansas City +3 (-110) — Wagering $220 to win $200 ……….WON
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PENDING FUTURES WAGERS:
NY GIANTS OVER 7.5 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000 — ahead of pace as Giants at 2-2
DETROIT LIONS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000 — slightly behind pace as Lions are 2-1
MINNESOTA VIKINGS OVER 6 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000 — slightly behind pace as Vikings are 1-2
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS UNDER 8 WINS (-135) — Wagering $1,350 to win $1,000 — ahead of pace as Chiefs are 1-2
CLEVELAND BROWNS UNDER 7 WINS (-150) — Wagering $1,500 to win $1,000 <<<BEST BET>>> — slightly ahead of pace as Browns are 1-2
DALLAS COWBOYS TO MISS THE PLAYOFFS (-250) — Wagering $1,250 to win $500 — Cowboys are 2-1
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (-220) — Wagering $2,200 to win $1,000 <<<BEST BET>>> — Saints are 1-2
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NOLAN DALLA: 2013 NFL SEASON RECORD (FINAL RESULTS)
108 WINS – 84 LOSSES — 6 PUSHES
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
ENDING BANKROLL: $14,702.
NET GAIN: + $4,702.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 21–20–2
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NOLAN DALLA: 2012 NFL SEASON RECORD (FINAL RESULTS)
98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
ENDING BANKROLL: $13,460.
NET GAIN: + $3,460
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 14-7-0
