My NFL Wagers (Week 3)

NOLAN DALLA:  2014 NFL SEASON RECORD (Through End of Week 2)

11 WINS – 16 LOSSES — 1 PUSHES

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $6,285.

NET GAIN/LOSS:  – $3,715

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  1 – 3 – 0

Last week was about as awful as it gets.  A real shit show.  It was one of the worst weeks I’ve ever suffered since posting NFL picks in a public forum.

I probably deserved my sad fate, because I spent relatively little time handicapping the games.  This is what happens when you try to pick winners while sitting in the middle seat, flying a discount airline, picking pointspread winners out of a newspaper.  Still, I’m not sure I would have done much better, even had I dedicated considerably more time to all the matchups.  Everything went wrong.  I zigged when everything else zagged.  At this rate, I’ll be pulling out the famed “teaser wheel” to bail me out before too long.

On to this week’s games.  Check back later for a more thorough rundown — I’m posting these plays earlier than usual. 

THIS WEEK’S PICKS (all plays are -110 unless noted otherwise):

NY Giants + 2 vs. Houston — Risking $660 to win $600

This pick doesn’t make any sense at all, which is precisely why I like it.  Had an early line on this game been posted during NFL pre-season, the Giants would probably have been installed as a -3 or -4 point favorite.  But the line has swung at least 5 to 6 points the other way, based on a much stronger showing by the Texans, so far combined with the Giants looking like absolute dogshit during the first two weeks.  This looks to be one of those classic matchups where the public will be all over Houston, while the sharps take the home dog.  I’m certainly not much of a sharp given my record, but this is a contrarian’s dream.  Everything does seem to line up well for NY Giants in this game — motivation, home field, dog role, untested opponent.  We have a much more desperate team coming off a home loss and now back at home again the following week.  Combine this with Houston playing on the road two straight weeks, combined with an early East Coast game, often a tough spot for the visitor.  Houston had it relatively easy in its first two contests, playing versus to of the leagues worst offenses (Washington with Griffith at QB learning a new offensive system and then a rookie QB starting for Oakland).  The Giants aren’t much of an improvement on paper, but there has to be enough pride left on this Giants team led by a two-time Super Bowl champion QB and other veterans to be competitive in a home game that Tom Coughlin has to admit is a “must win” for his team.

TEASER:  NY Giants (to +8) with Cincinnati -.5 — Risking $880 to win $800   <<<BEST BET>>>

Wong Teasers have killed me so far this season.  But I’ll stick with the premise of picking up key numbers, especially in games expected to be lower scoring than average, and the NYG-HOU game certainly applies with a total posted at 41.  I just can’t see the Giants losing by double digits three straight weeks, especially since this is a home game for them.  I’ll latch on to Cincinnati in the other side of this two-team teaser since the Bengals are looking quite impressive and again are playing at home.  Perhaps Tennessee was exposed last week as the 6-10 teams they probably are, losing badly at home to Dallas and now must face a better team on the road.  Bengals look far too solid to lose this game, but still I’d rather tease it down to a tiny number rather than lay close to a touchdown.

Buffalo -1 vs. San Diego — Risking $330 to win $300

This is more of an “against” San Diego wager, based on the Chargers coming off a huge upset win over Seattle last week and now having to go on the road through three time zones for an early start.  Buffalo playing solid so far at 2-0, looking impressive in both games, especially on defense.  Puzzling as to why this line is not at least 2.5 and probably -3 for the Bills.  Lots of value here on a team where the linesmakers and public may be a little behind in the perception of these two teams.  Buffalo may have turned the corner and this game will prove if they’re for real.

Minnesota / New Orleans OVER 49 — Risking $330 to win $300

Saints offense has performed quite well this season, as the team’s problems appear to be on defense.  Given New Orleans is now playing its home opener and probably wants to make a statement after a shocking 0-2 start, I think that spells plenty of points, and also provides for some backdoor scoring by the opponent playing catch up.  Hard to tell how Vikings offense will react with RB Peterson out again this week and perhaps for the rest of the season.  The dome on carpet is always a good foundation for an OVER and with a motivated home team and a lower than average total for a New Orleans home game (it’s usually up around 51-52), we have enough value to make a wager here.

Baltimore -2 vs. Cleveland — Risking $220 to win $200

Ravens come in with ten-days rest and face a team off a big home win last week.  Marvelous job so far by the Browns, but I’m not convinced they’re legitimate.  Baltimore is a scary team to back as a road favorite, and has been dismal in games like this since the Super Bowl win two years ago.  But I think there’s enough talent here to get the win and cover.  Ravens certainly won’t take Cleveland lightly after seeing how well the Browns have performed.  I’ll take a more veteran team with more rest which is laying a soft number.

Green Bay / Detroit OVER 52 — Risking $330 to win $300

I almost don’t care what the number is, these teams should pass early and often, and score a lot of score points.  Packers defense has been awful in two games and faces a Lions offense which performs much better at home.  Another the fast track of the rubber grass field semi-indoors, plus a history of high-scoring games in this series.  I’ll bet OVER any number lower than 54.

 Jacksonville +7 vs. Indianapolis — Wagering $330 to win $300

This is a “hold your nose and fire” special.  I’ve been destroyed financially backing the Jags each of the first two weeks, but back home this should provide enough of a platform for the team to at least be competitive for a change.  There’s nothing to like about this team on paper, but anytime I can fade a mediocre team like the Colts laying a full touchdown on the road, I’ll do it.  There’s an old saying that I remember from betting NFL games 30 years ago that “No NFL team is so bad they will lose by double digits every week and not cover,” or something to that effect.  You have to back teams getting the value and that applies here.  Supposedly, these are pro athletes playing for jobs, and JAX has to be focused here against a team coming off a tough emotional loss at home on MNF with a day less to prepare.  Key here is to capture the +7.  Does scare me that Colts are 0-2 and also getting desperate, but this just isn’t the kind of team that wins big on the road.

Oakland / New England UNDER 47 — Wagering $220 to win $200

Raiders offense looks pathetic and now must go to the East Coast again for the second time in three weeks — I don’t see many points coming from the Raiders offense.  Meanwhile, this looks like one of those “just do enough to win” kind of games for New England.  The Patriots have a history of sometimes being flat in spots against inferior opponents and this looks to be a prime candidate for an “ugly” win for the far superior team.  Looking for New England to win this one 30-10, and the score to fall UNDER the number.

Arizona +3 vs. San Francisco — Wagering $330 to win $300

Statement game for Cardinals franchise who have been solid for quite a while, and yet have stayed under the radar it seems — being instilled as a 3-point dog at home.  No way San Francisco is 6 points better than Cards (add the +3 for home field advantage), who have gone 12-6 SU since start of last season in regular season games (49ers have gone 13-5 SU in that same span).  Line moved from -2.5 to -3 for some reason, perhaps the public’s infatuation with 49ers.  This is probably the second best team in the NFL, despite the weak QB play from Kaepernick, but I don’t think they merit this much respect in a divisional road game versus a winning team.  Should be pick em’, so give me the generous field goal.

Denver / Seattle UNDER 48.5 — Wagering $330 to win $300

Seattle is a tough place for any NFL offense, even one led by NFL MVP Manning.  Coming off the road loss, look for Seattle to be primed for this home game, especially on defense which was maligned last week.  High total here based on perceptions of two solid teams here, but I look for a much more competitive game where the key will be long drives and ball control.  Seattle doesn’t give up big plays very often, and given  a fairly high total, I’m willing to wager that at least one of these offenses will struggle this week.  Bet this one OVER any number higher than 47.

Pittsburgh / Carolina OVER 41 — Wagering $440 to win $400

Prime time night games tend to be a little higher scoring than average.  That combined with the Steelers morphing into an OVER team probably means more points should be scored than average, which is around 43.  Yet here we see one of the lowest totals on the board this week, since it’s a Carolina home game, which have a tendency to be lower scoring than average.  I see the Steelers offense dictating the pace here, passing often, and producing more points than expected.  Non-conference games tend to be higher scoring, as well.  Add the Steelers defense which has looked bad in the first two games, and this makes for one of the most attractive totals bets on the board this week.  Latch the 41 now, as this is a key number in totals betting.

NY Jets -2 vs. Chicago — Wagering $330 to win $300

NY Jets / Chicago OVER 45.5 — Wagering $330 to win $300

I see this as a coming out party for the Jets in a rare MNF home game, versus a banged up defense.  Quite similar to the ATL-TAM game a few nights ago.  Chicago in a horrible spot here playing two straight on the road after big upset win last week on West Coast.  But what really is key here are the Bears key injuries on defense as five starters were lost during last week’s game, and three may not start this week.  In similar spots we have seen ATL and BALT both off losses blow out opponents in these night games, and this looks to be another favorable situation for the favorite.  Looking for lots of points in a game where CHI should enjoy some success with all their weapons.  But NYJ are in a perfect spot here at home versus a banged up defense, making me go with the favorite and the OVER.  Bet this now as it will almost certainly go to 46+.

LATE ADDED PLAYS:

FIRST HALF:  St. Louis +.5 (-125) — Risking $250 to win $200

FIRST HALF:  Washington +3 (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200

FIRST HALF:  Kansas City +3 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:  3-11-0 (- $4,420)

TEASER — Pittsburgh +8.5 / Green Bay — Risking $1,100 to win $1,000   <<<BEST BET>>>   ……….LOST

TEASER — Detroit + 7.5 / Green Bay -1 — Risking $1,100 to win $1,000   <<<BEST BET>>>   ……….LOST

TEASER — Jacksonville +11 / Green Bay -1 — Risking $880 to win $800     ……….LOST

Buffalo -1.5 vs, Miami — Risking $440 to win $400    ……….WON

Jacksonville + 4.5 vs. Washington — Risking $330 to win $300    ……….LOST

Dallas / Tennessee OVER 49 — Risking $550 to win $500    ……….LOST

Buffalo / Miami UNDER 43 — Risking $550 to win $500    ……….WON

New England / Minnesota OVER 49 — Risking $550 to win $500    ……….LOST

Green Bay / NY Jets UNDER 46.5 — Risking $550 to win $500    ……….LOST

FIRST HALF — Jacksonville +3 — Risking $220 to win $300    ……….LOST

FIRST HALF TEAM TOTAL — Jacksonville OVER 7.5 — Risking $220 to win $300     ……….LOST

FIRST QUARTER — Jacksonville +.5 (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200     ……….LOST

FIRST QUARTER — Chicago +.5 — Risking $220 to win $200    ……….LOST

TEAM TOTAL (GAME) — Oakland UNDER 19 — Risking $330 to win $300   ……….WON

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PENDING FUTURES WAGERS:

NY GIANTS OVER 7.5 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000 — in serious trouble

DETROIT LIONS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000 — slightly ahead of pace

MINNESOTA VIKINGS OVER 6 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000 — slightly ahead of pace

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS UNDER 8 WINS (-135) — Wagering $1,350 to win $1,000 — way ahead of pace

CLEVELAND BROWNS UNDER 7 WINS (-150) — Wagering $1,500 to win $1,000  <<<BEST BET>>> — slightly behind pace

DALLAS COWBOYS TO MISS THE PLAYOFFS (-250) — Wagering $1,250 to win $500  — neutral

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (-220) — Wagering $2,200 to win $1,000   <<<BEST BET>>> — in serious trouble

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NOLAN DALLA:  2013 NFL SEASON RECORD (FINAL RESULTS)

108 WINS – 84 LOSSES — 6 PUSHES

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

ENDING BANKROLL:  $14,702.

NET GAIN:  + $4,702.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  21–20–2

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NOLAN DALLA:  2012 NFL SEASON RECORD (FINAL RESULTS)

98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

ENDING BANKROLL:  $13,460.

NET GAIN:  + $3,460

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  14-7-0