My NFL Wagers (Week 1)

NOLAN DALLA:  2014 NFL SEASON RECORD

0 WINS – 0 LOSSES — 0 PUSHES

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $10,000.

NET GAIN/LOSS:  +/- $0

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  0 – 0 – 0

This is the 18th season I’ve posted NFL plays against the spread on various public forums.  It all started back in 1996 on AOL, then SportsFanRadio, then MadJackSports, then finally here.

During the last two years, I’ve put up plays with write ups here at my personal website.  You can see my season-ending results from these past two years below.

I’ve also posted several futures wagers (which were initially posted about two weeks ago).  Those are also included near the end of this write-up.  I’ve added one more futures wager today, which is included here.

At the start of each football season, I make my futures plays.  Then, I allot myself a $10,000 starting bankroll to be used for week-to-week wagering.  If I run out of money, the season is over.

People ask me if I actually bet these plays.  The answer is — yes.

Some people also ask me if I recommend that anyone follow my wagers and bet them as I do.  The answer is — no.

I make quite a lot of second-half wagers.  In fact, I make more halftime bets than anything else.  My work in this area is pretty well known in handicapping.  I was the first writer-researcher to post a list of halftime betting angles, which hit consistently well for a number of seasons before gradually losing their value.  READ OLD ARTICLE ON HALFTIME ANGLES HERE.  Unfortunately, the limited time frame of in-game wagering does not allow me the chance to post my halftime wagers.  I tend to believe that’s where the real money is to be made, what little opportunity exists, anymore.

Accordingly, I shall continue to post just as I have in the past — with the week’s NFL selections listed either late Saturday night (or early Sunday morning).  In the event that I post on Saturday night, you may want to check again for updates on Sunday morning.  This is because sometimes I add to my plays based on late-breaking news/injuries/degree of hangover.

I average about ten plays per week — which includes straight bets, totals, halves, quarters, and some propositions.  I also bet lots of teasers.

I never bet parlays (exception:  weather correlated).  I sometimes bet moneylines, but they aren’t posted here for the most part.

Here’s what I like for NFL Week 1, which includes 14 wagers:

THIS WEEK’S WAGERS (all wagers are -110 unless noted otherwise):

ADDING ONE FUTURES BET — NY GIANTS OVER 7.5 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000

I’ve always been bullish on Tom Coughlin as a coach.  He’s never had the league’s best talent.  But he’s still won two Super Bowls, in years when no one expected much.  The NY Giants got off to a horrible start last season with a rash of injuries, losing their entire running game before Week 1.  That sent the team into a tailspin.  Yet somehow, in a season where everything went wrong, the Giants still won 7 games and went 7-9.  They never gave up or lost focus, despite half the team being out at one point with injuries.  I think that speak volumes to Coughlin’s coaching and many of the players on this team, which includes lots of veterans.  Now, the season win total is 7.5, which seems a bit low.  I’d have this at least 8 and perhaps even 8.5.  I’m betting over based on solid coaching, a healthier team, a good pre-season, and some added incentive this season to with several players who have proven to be winners.  Schedule looks favorable, at least through end of Oct. when Giants get a much needed bye before a tough slate of games in Nov.

MIAMI +4 vs. NEW ENGLAND — Laying $330 to win $300

FIRST HALF:  MIAMI +3 (-125) — Laying $375 to win $300

I’ll take a home dog in the heat getting generous points versus a team with a lot of question marks, especially on defense.  Dolphins beat Patriots outright at home last season.  Certainly a live dog here worth a wager.  Should be a close game.

TAMPA -2.5 vs. CAROLINA — Laying $330 to win $300

Major line movement on this game based on news of Carolina offense in disarray….likely to have trouble scoring points and now playing a Tampa team that was a lot more competitive than their 4-12 SU record showed.  I think new coach Lovie Smith will get this team back to .500 and will start off fresh with a win at home.

PITTSBURGH -7 (-105) vs. CLEVELAND — Laying $210 to win $200

This is more of a bet against the Browns, based on their offensive problems, with no wideouts, and now competing against a healthy Steelers team coming of a sub-par season.  I rarely lay this many points, but something tells me this is a statement game for Steelers announcing they are back.  Toss out the math charts and power ratings, this is what I call a “feel” handicapping pick.  Feels like a blowout.

DENVER -7 vs. INDIANAPOLIS — Laying $330 to win $300

I got this line at -7, but it’s moved to 7.5 in some places.  Probably a pass at that number.  Broncos were astounding at home last season, and now face a team that probably overachieved last two seasons.  Denver has been waiting for this game since that abysmal Super Bowl performance and has too many weapons not to win this one comfortably in my opinion.

SAN FRANCISCO/DALLAS UNDER 51 — Laying $440 to win $400

Despite Dallas defensive problems, I’m not sure 49ers offense is ready given what we saw from first unit in pre-season.  I’m always willing to fade Kaepernick as a passer.  Meanwhile, Dallas offense has just looked horrendous in pre-season, and lacks either a running game or an offensive line.  They face one of the best defenses in the league here.  I’m looking for an ugly road win by the Niners, which sails under one of the highest totals on the board.

WASHINGTON/HOUSTON UNDER 45 — Laying $330 to win $300

Dropped to 44.5 in some places, but still worth a wager.  New coaches and offensive schemes all around here, which bodes well for a more conservative, defensive-minded game.  Houston’s defense should be one of the leagues best.  Meanwhile, the offense enters the season with major questions.  Griffin has not looked good so far in new scheme.  One of these teams offenses is going to struggle, which leads me to think this game falls under a higher-than-average number.

NEW ORLEANS/ATLANTA OVER 51.5 — Laying $330 to win $300

System play.  Lots of offensive veterans.  In the dome, on carpet.  Could be a shootout.

NY GIANTS +6.5 vs. DETROIT — Laying $550 to win $500   <<<BEST BET>>>

Two roughly even teams on paper.  Give me the points with the far superior head coach and more consistent quarterback.  Simple as that.

NY GIANTS/DETROIT OVER 47 — Laying $330 to win $300

System play.

SAN DIEGO/ARIZONA OVER 46.5 — Laying $330 to win $300

System play.

TEASER:  TENNESSEE +9 / DENVER -1 — Laying $550 to win $500   <<<BEST BET>>>

No way Kansas City blows anyone out with their offensive line troubles and questions on offense.  Big step up game for Titans, even though KC is a tough place to play.  I’ll take some extra insurance points with the prospect that Denver is not going to lose at home in their night opener.

FIRST QUARTER:  WASHINGTON +.5 (-125) — Laying $250 to win $200

FIRST QUARTER:  TENNESSEE +.5 (-125) — Laying $250 to win $200

……………

PENDING FUTURES WAGERS:

NY GIANTS OVER 7.5 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000

DETROIT LIONS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000

MINNESOTA VIKINGS OVER 6 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS UNDER 8 WINS (-135) — Wagering $1,350 to win $1,000

CLEVELAND BROWNS UNDER 7 WINS (-150) — Wagering $1,500 to win $1,000  <<<BEST BET>>> 

DALLAS COWBOYS TO MISS THE PLAYOFFS (-250) — Wagering $1,250 to win $500

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (-220) — Wagering $2,200 to win $1,000   <<<BEST BET>>>

……………

NOLAN DALLA:  2013 NFL SEASON RECORD (FINAL RESULTS)

108 WINS – 84 LOSSES — 6 PUSHES

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

ENDING BANKROLL:  $14,702.

NET GAIN:  + $4,702.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  21–20–2

……………

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 NFL SEASON RECORD (FINAL RESULTS)

98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

ENDING BANKROLL:  $13,460.

NET GAIN:  + $3,460

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  14-7-0