NFL Predictions and Picks: Week 17

 

REMEMBERING JOHN MADDEN (1936-2021)

I never met John Madden in person, but like so many millions, I really thought I knew him.

A few weeks ago, someone posted a question on social media. It went something like this — which five people would you choose if you could have a private dinner party and invite anyone? I answered with five names who I really would love to meet and listen to. But among all the names I didn’t share or select, one was John Madden. He just seemed genuinely interesting. Filled with gusto. A lover of life. And a man with great stories. He knew everyone in the game for the past 60 years, as a player, then a coach, then a broadcaster.

I can remember seeing an old interview with his ex-Oakland Raiders players about Madden when he was coaching the team back in the early 1970s. Remember, Madden was only 32 years old when he took over the team as the new head coach. Several players were older than him.

The thing that made Madden such a powerful presence and force of nature wasn’t just that he was a great football coach. According to those who knew him best, Madden was a great life coach. He spent many practices and hours and hours and hours talking to his players, and more important — “listening” to his players. On many occasions, they didn’t even talk football at all. Players said Madden was always bringing up current events and various teaching life lessons. He engaged people. He recognized there’s no separation between private life and public life. We are who were are. Our disposition — attitudes, ideals, goals, and values — doesn’t change on whims, worth, or worldly goods.

On Christmas Day, one of the TV networks ran a documentary on John Madden’s incredible life. I didn’t watch it yet, but I plan to. My understanding is that Madden hadn’t been seen in public in nearly ten years since his retirement. So, the documentary was and is a wonderful parting gift. A gift not to him, but to us.

Indeed, Madden was not only a coach of life to his players, he was a coach to us all.

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I’m posting this week’s results and look ahead early.

I’m now in the red (losing money) for the first time since Week 2.  Last week’s strategy switch to playing all the “bounce back” teams (teams coming off a loss facing teams coming off a win) proved disastrous.  That system has/d been a moneymaker this season, but it crashed and burned in Week 16.  Here’s the final wrap up for the week:

 

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (Lay amount/Win amount):  – $1,735.

Tennessee + 3 vs. San Francisco (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300 ….. WON

Arizona – 1 vs. Indianapolis (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300 ….. LOST

LA Chargers – 9.5 vs. Houston (-115) — Risking $345 to win $300 ….. LOST

Atlanta – 5.5 vs. Detroit (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300 ….. LOST

New England -2.5 vs. Buffalo (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300 ….. LOST

Denver (pick) vs. Las Vegas (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300 ….. LOST

Washington +10..5 vs. Dallas — Risking $330 to win $300 ….. LOST

TEASER: Kansas City -3 vs. Pitt/Phila. (carryover Tuesday night–won) — Risk $600 to win $500 ….. WON

ADDED:  Chicago/Denver UNDER 41.5 (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300 ….. LOST

 

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2021 NFL WAGERING RECORD

69  Wins

68 Losses

2  Pushes 

Starting Bankroll:     $10,000.

Current Bankroll:     $8,787.

Net Gain/Loss:     – $1,213.     

Last Week’s Results:     (2-7-0) – $1,735.

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Philadelphia -3 vs. Washington (-130) — Risking $650 to win $500

Note that I’m buying the half point down to -3 on the Eagles playing at Washington.  The Eagles have the NFL’s best running game and should chew up yardage on the ground and dominate time of possession.  Washington was exposed in the 45-point blowout loss at Dallas last week and should have difficulty fielding a motivated team versus the Eagles who still have playoff aspirations.  Phila. beat Washington by 10 just two weeks ago.  I see a similar result, or perhaps worse, here.

 

Kansas City / Cincinnati OVER 49.5 (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300

These two teams should produce a shootout with offenses led by star QBs that can move the ball and score points and a total that could be shaded a little on the low side due to Kansas City’s excellent play recently on defense.  Chiefs are also healthy again (as of now, situation can always change with COVID).

 

Detroit +7 vs. Seattle (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300

I think the Seahawks’ home loss to Chicago last week was demoralizing and will carry over here.  That game was their last gasp in a ruined season.  Meanwhile, Detroit may be 2-12-1 on the season but they’re one of the NFL’s best teams versus the spread, at 10-5 ATS.  The Lions have also covered in 6 of their last 7.  This tells us the Lions are still playing hard and remain undervalued by betting markets.  Seattle has a reputation as a good team, but they aren’t.  Laying -7 here is way too high, so I’ll grap the points.

 

FINAL SUMMARY OF THIS WEEK’S BETS (Lay amount/Win amount):

Philadelphia -3 vs. Washington (-130) — Risking $650 to win $500

Kansas City / Cincinnati OVER 49.5 (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300

Detroit +7 vs. Seattle (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300

 

NOTE:  THIS IS THE EARLY REPORT FOR WEEK 17.  CHECK BACK AGAIN FOR UPDATES.