NFL Plays — Week 6
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 POSTED SEASON RECORD
29 WINS – 23 LOSSES – 1 PUSHES —– (+ 8.7 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10.870.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 2-2-0
Coming off a bitter losing week because of Packers last-second upset loss at Indy……went from being a 5 unit gain to a 6 unit loss due to one play…..Big card coming up in Week 6 with 11 wagers including an unsual situation with two BEST BETS of the week — Wagering $4,990 on 11 bets. Note: All wagers are for amusement-purposes only. I bear no responsibility for those who may decide to follow my plays.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
1st QUARTER — WASHINGTON + .5 (-130) for 3 units — WON 3 units
1st QUARTER — BUFFALO +3 (-120) for 3 units — PUSH
GAME — CINCINNATI -3 (-120) for 4 units — LOST 3.6 units
TWO-TEAM 6-POINT TEASER: GREEN BAY -1 / NY GIANTS -1.5 (-110) for 5 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — LOST 5.5 units
WEEK 6 PLAYS:
Two-Team 6-Point Teaser: CLEVELAND +8.5 / NY GIANTS + 12.5 (-110) — for 4 units
I’ll take a live home dog in a rivalry game….Browns showed some life last week at NYG, racing to a quick two-TD lead before falling apart later…..Bengals coming off meltdown at home last week and awful offensive showing and now must travel to crossstate rival as a favorite….I’m looking for a typical tight game where getting more than a TD seems like a nice cushion, even if my team is 0-5. / Meanwhile, it’s hard not to take defending Super Bowl champs teased up over double digits, even with the long road trip West…..this is more of a situational “bet against” fading SFO…..as teams that blow away opponents in successive weeks just as 49ers have done last two outings tend to get complacent in the next game and perform poorly historically speaking — in addition to getting some etra line value….not sure SFO will be flat here given the opponent in an NFC title rematch, but I think NYG have too much talent and pride to get blown out in this spot, so Ill gladly take a generous teaser in what I expect could be a low-scoring game.
Game: NY GIANTS +6.5 (-110) — for 3 units
Purely a situational “go against” the hot team. SFO destroyed its last two opponents by more than 40 points in both contests….that is historically a fade spot in the next outing, made even more attractive by the opponent being more than capable of a cover if not an outright upset victory.
Total: KANSAS CITY/TAMPA OVER 40.5 (-110) — for 3 uits
Chiefs hard team to figure out…..lighting up scoreboards at BUFF and NOR but can’t seem to produce any points at home…..Now back on road yet again, looking for a much more open game plan this week than KC showed last game versus BALT (all KC media has done this week is crucify Cassell)…..Now, TAMPA defense a pretty steep dip in class and I expect Chiefs should produce some points…..meanwhile, I also look for TAMPA to reach into the 20s. Looks like a 27-20 kind of game.
Total: ST. LOUIS/MIAMI OVER 37.5 (-110) — for 3 units
This total is right out of the defense-dominated 1970s. Trouble is, with the way NFL rules are enforced favoring offenses, I’ll go OVER in just about any game where you see anything less than a 38, barring two rookie quarterbacks playing in blizzard. No real logic here — just going OVER in a game where linesmakers have overreacted and made the number too low in my opinion.
Total: NEW ENGLAND/SEATTLE UNDER 44.5 (-110) — for 4 units
Seattle appears to be a very tough place for any NFL offense — any doubts, then check out what happened to Dallas and Green Bay, which were shut down earlier this season in their trips to the Northwest…..NWE is back riding high again, but I look for a more lackluster effort this week in a cross-country situation…..SEA defense playing well, but I still don’t trust their offense to produce many points……I’d line this closer to 41 or 41.5 and think there’s enough value to go UNDER for a higher than average wager.
First Half: ST. LOUIS/MIAMI OVER 16.5 (-110) — for 4 units
An extention of my previous wager on the game total to go OVER, but we get the inside of a key number in 1H betting, which is 17.
First Half: BUFFALO/ARIZONA OVER 19.5 (-110) — for 4 units
Readers know of my personal bias for betting Phoenix OVERS. They produced big in the last home game….so I will stick with my “system.” BET PHOENIX GAMES OVER — no matter what the situation. Something about the desert air…..More attractive this week since BUFF is coming off awful performance at SFO and should fare better in this spot versus softer opponent (yes, ARZ is a step down in class from SFO). Yet the Bills defense is admittedly horrid. We capture the inside of a key 1H number, which is a win on 20. Love this wager.
First Half: GREEN BAY/HOUSTON OVER 21.5 (-110) — for 2 units
Suspiciously low first-half total for two potent offenses playing in ideal conditions weather wise in a night game (usually a little higher scoring than day games). The hook on the 21 is a slight concern, which keeps the wager to just a few uits. But these are two big-play offenses and combined with some growing confidence that Packers defense is mediocre, I look for 24+ points in the first half.
First Quarter: DETROIT/PHILADELPHIA OVER 9.5 (-125) — for 5 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK 1>
These are not the two kinds of teams that play conservatively in the first quarter or half. Both offenses are more than capable of moving the ball and scoring points. Veteran QBs and big play potential for both offenses, plus Eagles special teams traditionally horrible. “10” seems very reachable.
First Quarter: DETROIT +.5 (-130) — for 5 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK 2>
I’m not crazy about betting a side and a total in the same quarter (because a single turnover can be catastropic), but this is too good to pass up. Nice link to the previous wager (total OVER 9.5), which essentially demands that DET score at least a FG in the first quarter, in which case it would be tough to lose both wagers. Obviously, an early DET touchdown locks up potentially a huge ten unit gain. PHILA HAS FAILED TO COVER IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF ANY GAME THIS SEASON. Then, there’s the QB Vick turnover trend, which is obviously a factor in the visitor’s favor. Moreover, DET comes off the bye and a horrid home performance….I think there’s too much talent on that offense to come flat into PHILA. Looking for some early points from motivated Lions to lay the foundation for a possible big day.
First Quarter: BUFFALO +.5 (-120) — for 4 units
Bills were embarassed in last game at SFO and now stay out West…..still not convinced ARZ is in the class of an undefeated team, especially with that inconsistent offense….have gut feeling this could be the upset special of the week…..wagering on a draw or better in first quarter for the motivated visitors — even though I think Buffalo is the NFL’s worst coached team. I have zero repect for Chan Gailey.
